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Thread: Betting guide for Panthers-Steelers

  1. #1 Betting guide for Panthers-Steelers 
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    Betting guide for Panthers-Steelers

    Warren Sharp & Preston Johnson
    ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)


    Where does the betting value lie in Thursday's prime-time matchup between the Panthers and Steelers? Warren Sharp and Preston Johnson provide their picks to help you place your bets.


    Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.

    Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers(-3.5)

    Total: 52
    PickCenter public consensus pick: 53 percent picked Carolina

    Sharp: Carolina is the fifth-most run-heavy team in the NFL and owns the league's top rushing offense. The Steelers' defense ranks 14th in run efficiency, but that has come against the NFL's fifth-easiest schedule in terms of rushing offenses.


    I expect the Panthers to have a lot of success <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">on the ground and that will open up things through the air. Carolina uses a very creative smattering of option pitches, triple options, jet sweeps, QB designed runs and QB scrambles from downfield coverage and is tremendous with these runs, recording a 65 percent success rate and 6.7 yards per carry. The Steelers haven't faced many of these types of runs this year and are allowing an 85 percent success rate and 8.7 yards per carry.

    </offer>

    On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh's offense is in a very good place. The Steelers have played the seventh-most-difficult schedule of pass defenses and after just facing two top-10 pass defenses, now get to face the 20th-ranked Panthers pass defense. It will be the easiest pass defense for Pittsburgh since hanging 41 points on the Falcons in Week 5, and the third-easiest pass rush the Steelers will have faced. The combination of a bad pass defense and a bad pass rush typically signals bad explosive pass defense. And sure enough, that is true for the Panthers, who rank 27th in explosive pass defense.


    Lean: over 52


    Johnson: The Panthers are a quiet 6-2. They don't do anything extremely well, but they don't do anything badly, either. They rank in the top half of the NFL in both offensive and defensive efficiency, fourth in turnover margin and ninth in penalty yards per game and rarely make mistakes. They have a tough stretch here with a trio of games against the Steelers, Lions and Seahawks, but Carolina is in a great spot to make a playoff run (and maybe even sneak up on the Saints in the division).


    Pittsburgh, on the other hand, just moved into the top spot in the AFC North. The Steelers rank seventh in the NFL in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and I have them rated as the better team. I was surprised to see this game move off of Pittsburgh -4 on Tuesday. My raw number came in at -4.7, so if this gets to -3 before kickoff, I will be making a smaller play on the Steelers' side. At -3.5, however, it's a pass.


    The intriguing part of the X's and O's in this matchup is that the Panthers actually rank first in the league in yards per rush attempt. The Rams have more rushing yards per game, but Carolina has been more efficient. If Pittsburgh is able to slow the running game down, I envision a likely cover for the home favorite. This may be a good game to look at in-game betting early, but for now, unless a -3 pops up, it's a pass.


    Pick: pass

    Prop bets

    Will Christian McCaffrey score a touchdown? (yes +120, no -140)
    McCaffrey has scored four touchdowns in the past two games after scoring only once during Carolina's first six. His role hasn't changed drastically, but he has reached double-digit carries in back-to-back games for only the second time in his career. McCaffrey paces Carolina with four carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line and his two end zone targets trail only T.J. Yeldon among running backs. It also helps that only New England and Washington have been more run-oriented near the goal line. Considering he's ticketed for nearly 20 touches, I give McCaffrey roughly a 50-50 shot of finding the end zone. That's enough to take the plunge at +120.


    The pick: Yes (+120)
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    No opinion on this material guys, just posting for others to read...
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    H/Man.......thank you buddy........BOL tonight.......indy
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