MistaFlava's College Football Week 11 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

2018 MistaFlava's CFB Record: 38-27 ATS (+197.50 Units)

I went 0-6 ATS last week. My worst week in a long time but looking to bounce back and have a huge week this week. We are coming down to the final few weeks of the regular season and the goal for me will be +300 Units and a 65% clip of hitting plays heading into Bowl Season.

Good luck to everyone

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Friday, November 9



Fresno State Bulldogs -2.5 (10 Units)

The Fresno State Bulldogs are the real deal. The betting public is not respecting them and neither are the books in Vegas. I know this game is being played on the Smurf Turf where almost nobody wins but isn't that a thing of the past anyways? To be fair to those betting on Boise State in this one, I can't remember the last time the home team lost in this matchup or the last time Fresno State won on this blue turf. Having said that, the Bulldogs come into this game 4-1 SU on the road this season. Their one and only loss came at Minnesota in Week 2 of the season but since then they demolished UCLA, beat Nevada and UNLV (all on the road) and outyarded 6 of their last 7 opponents overall. Since the loss in at Minnesota, Fresno State has gone 7-0 ATS. Impressive. I know Boise State plays a lot better at home but in their last three games their defense is allowing 27.3 points per game and 6.5 yards per play. That's a big problem because this offense of Fresno State averages 487 total yards of offense per game and 6.9 yards per play. Fresno State has turned the ball over only one time in their last three games and allowed only 1 sack. That doesn't bode well for a Boise State defense that relies heavily on turnovers and sacks (12 sacks, 6 turnovers forced in their last three games). Fresno State should have their way.

As previously mentioned, the days of Boise State not losing games at home on the blue turf are long gone. The Broncos already have one loss at home this season to San Diego State back in Week 5 of the season and they have covered only one spread in their last five games. Even in their last home games they beat BYU 21-16 as a -11.5 point home favorite but they were outyarded by 61 total yards and should have lost that game. They were also outyarded in the home game before that against Colorado State despite winning 56-28. So being outyarded in their last three home games and winning 2 of 3 is lucky. They won't be so lucky against this very solid Fresno State team. The Boise State offense is just as good or capable as the Fresno State offense and they average 41.7 points per game and 443 total yards and 6.5 yards per play in their last three games but Fresno State's defense is legit. The Bulldogs have allowed only 10.0 points per game in their last three games and allowed only 318.7 total yards of offense per game in those games on 4.7 yards per play. Compared to Boise State allowing 6.5 yards per play in their last three games the Bulldogs defense should make some big plays. They have one of the most underrated secondaries in the Country allowing their last three opponents to complete only 49.0% of their passes for 5.1 yards per pass attempt. Fresno D comes to play.

The home team has won 6 straight games in this series and you have to go back 10+ years for the last time Fresno State won on this blue turf. Well this is their best team in 10+ years so why the hell not? Fresno State is 4-0 ATS in their last four games played on a Friday Night (Lights) and they are an unreal 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 road games. FRESNO STATE IS 25-4-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall. That has to be the best spread record in college football over the span of the last 5 seasons. If anyone is going to win on the Smurf Turf it's these guys. Boise State is just not the same anymore. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record and they are only 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games. Fresno State has covered four straight in this series and they will win this one big. I have no idea how anyone can go against the Bulldogs tonight.

Trend of the Game: Fresno State is 25-4-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall.


Fresno State 34, Boise State 16





more to come...

good luck saturday MF.Its been rough on a lot of folks around here lately it seems.:toast:

Absolutely cannot buy a winner. Fresno State looked good for one half and a series in Q3. Will start with some early games and maybe call it a week if those don't go well until I can find some kind of groove, any groove.


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Saturday, November 10



Kansas State Wildcats -10 (10 Units)

The Kansas Jayhawks have been the source of some of my large unit wins this season but I just can't back them in this spot. Let's be honest, had the Jayhawks not beat TCU a couple of weeks ago would this line be this low? Kansas is coming off a 27-3 home loss to Iowa State in a game where they were outyarded by 62 total yards yet still got blown out. In the TCU game they were outyarded by 197 total yards but still found a way to win. That was a home. On the road we've seen them lose 48-16 at Texas Tech, 38-22 at West Virginia, 26-7 and at Baylor. Kansas State is allowing only 16 points per game in their last three at home while Kansas averages only 292 total yards of offense and only 4.7 yards per play in their last three away from home. In those games they have allowed 10 sacks, have thrown 3 interceptions and have managed only 192 passing yards on a 53.9% pass completion rate. Kansas' offense will struggle to keep up in this one.

The Kansas State Wildcats are coming off a pretty bad road loss at reeling TCU and that loss always plays a part in the line for this game being much lower than it would have been a few weeks ago (because TCU lost to Kansas). Having said that, Kansas State has been a victim of a tough schedule and despite losing 5 of their last 6 overall they have played some pretty good ball. Their last home game saw them blow Oklahoma State out of the water 31-12 as a home dog of 8 points. The previous game saw them cover a +8.5 home line in a 19-14 loss to Texas and in the game before that they destroyed UTSA and covered the -20.5 price tag on that game. This team is averaging 28.7 points per game in their last three home games (two as underdogs) and that's going to be a problem for this Kansas defense allowing a whopping 37.3 points per away game in their last three games. In those games they have allowed 503 total yards and 6.5 yards per play. The Wildcats should continue to put up points at home.

What you have to like about Kansas State is that they are 6-0 ATS in their last six games coming off a straight loss and the loss at TCU had to sting a bit. They are also 5-0 ATS in their last five games after scoring 20 or less points in their previous game (scored 13 at TCU) and 4-1 ATS in their last five Big 12 Conference games. Kansas on the other hand has covered the spread in only 14 of their last 51 road games and are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven conference games. Kansas State is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings played at Kansas State between these teams and the Favorite has covered 18 of the last 23 overall. I'm going with a big home win for Kansas State although it may take a bit of time to get going.

Trend of the Game: Kansas State is 6-0 ATS in their last six games coming off a straight up loss.


Kansas State 44, Kansas 10





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Nice writeups as always

Best of luck

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West Virginia Mountaineers -11 (10 Units)

The Texas Christian Horned Frogs are just not the same in 2018. Everything from the dismissal of one of their best players to their offense and to their defense, something is not right. Sure they escaped with a 14-13 home win over Kansas State last week but they were a 10 point favorite in that game and barely beat a team that is not going to be playing for a Bowl Game in 2018. This is the same TCU team that a few weeks back went to Kansas, yes that Kansas, and lost as a -13.5 point road favorite. They also went to Texas earlier in the year and got blown out by 15 points. I am the first to trash West Virginia's defense because they have allowed 6.2 yards per play their last three games but at home this season they have allowed only 4.7 yards per play, 14.8 points per game and only 296 total yards of offense per game. TCU loves to run the ball (37.7 attempts per away game) but the Mountaineers allow only 2.9 yards per carry on less than 100 rushing yards per home game this season. They also have 13 sacks, 6 interceptions and 3 fumble recoveries in four home games. That's a problem for a TCU offense that has 8 turnovers in three away games this season.

The West Virginia Mountaineers hit a road block in their season when they went to Iowa State and lost a few weeks ago as a -4.5 road favorite but man have they ever made up for it in recent weeks. They came home and blew the wheels off the Baylor bus with a 58-14 home win and then they went to Texas and pulled off one of the most incredible walk-off plays of the 2018 college football season when they went for 2 points instead of a game tying PAT with time expiring and converted it for a huge win in Austin. That's the kind of win that can really get your guys believing. So the number seems high but West Virginia is averaging 45.8 points per home game this season on 541.5 total yards of offense and 7.7 yards per play in those games. That's bonkers. TCU is allowing 23.3 points per away game this season, a lot of it because of their inept offense, and they just don't have the playmakers on defense this season to slow down West Virginia. In three away games this season TCU has 0 interceptions and only 1 fumble recovery. That's not going to cut it against a Heisman candidate QB and an offense that scores the way WVU do at home.

There isn't much history between these teams but in 2016 the Texas Christian Horned Frogs came to Morgantown with a much better team than they have now and they got their asses handed to them 34-10. Sure they returned the favor in 2017 but they were a 12 point favorite at home in that one and West Virginia covered. TCU COMES INTO THIS GAME ON AN 0-8 ATS RUN IN CONFERENCE PLAY and they have failed to cover the spread in six straight games this season. They are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games versus a team with a winning record on the season and West Virginia is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Because this is a revenge game I don't see West Virginia playing down to the level of TCU, something they have done versus weaker teams in the past, and the Mountaineers and their offense should roll in this one.

Trend of the Game: TCU is 0-8 in their last eight Big 12 Conference games.


West Virginia 35, Texas Christian 12





more to come...

Mr. Flava...…..let's get'm this weekend buddy...….BOL with all your action.....on W. Virg. with you...……..indy

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South Carolina Gamecocks +6.5 (10 Units)

Everyone knows how much I love underdogs so it was hard for me to pass them up completely in the 12:00pm ET slate this morning. The South Carolina Gamecocks are by far one of the hottest teams in the SEC Conference right now. They are one win away from being Bowl Eligible and are coming off a huge win at Mississippi last week as a +2 point road underdog in a game where they were outyarded by over 100 total yards but still found a way to win. Their only bad road game of the season was at Kentucky where they lost 24-10 but still competed and were only outyarded by 27 total yards. The Cocks come into this game averaging 6.7 yards per play in their last three games overall and in those games they have scored 32.7 points per game. A lot of those points were the result of their defense forcing turnovers but the offense should have some success against a Gators defense allowing 6.3 yards per play in their last three games on 33.7 points per game in those games. The Gamecocks can run the ball (4.7 yards per carry in their last three) and throw the ball (8.9 yards per pass attempt in last three) so the Gators could be reeling if they can't sustain long drives on offense.

The Florida Gators are Bowl Eligible, which shocks absolutely nobody, but I have to say I am a bit surprised at the price tag and the fact that they are favored by almost a touchdown at home. The same home where they lost 38-17 to Missouri last week in a game where they were outyarded by 148 total yards and the same home where they lost to Kentucky at the beginning of the season. I think their home win over LSU has Vegas holding onto hope but that was a home win as an underdog. Everything is different as a favorite. South Carolina allows yards on defense to the tune of 5.7 yards per play in their last three games but it's very hard to run on these guys (3.9 yards per carry allowed the last three games). Just ask the last three teams who tried to run the ball an average of 41.3 times per game on them. The Gamecocks are a bend but don't break defense who have forced a whopping 9 FG attempts in their last three games. If the QB play is not perfect for Florida they don't stand a chance as they have completed only 56.7% of their passes for 6.7 yards per pass attempt the last three games while throwing 2 interceptions and losing 4 fumbles in those games. South Carolina's defense will be happy to allow FG's all day.

You have to go back to 2012 for the last time Florida really dominated the Gamecocks in this stadium and I just don't see it happening today. This is a classic SEC Conference game that is going to most likely come down to a FG at the end to win it with both offenses struggling to put up huge yardage and huge points. As mentioned before South Carolina are masters at allowing FG attempts over touchdowns. South Carolina comes into this game 6-1 ATS in their last seven games away from home and they are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after allowing 40+ points in a game (allowed 44 at Ole Miss last week). Even more impressive is that they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven road games versus a team with a winning record at home and the Road Team is now 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Florida is coming off a brutal loss and they have covered only 3 of their last 13 games when coming off a straight up loss. South Carolina wins this on a late Field Goal.

Trend of the Game: South Carolina is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven road games versus a team with a winning home record.


South Carolina 20, Florida 17





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Good Luck Flava! I sure hope you're right about the Gamecocks today! It would be a helluva win for them if they could pull it off, I just wish I could be as optimistic as you're about it...Looking forward to watching and finding out, though, so enjoy the games today...

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Iowa State Cyclones -16.5 (10 Units)

The line has dropped to a reasonable enough number that I am once again going against the Baylor Bears. This team cannot stop shooting themselves in the foot and after looking good (offensively anyways) at Oklahoma earlier in the season, things have pretty much gone South for them ever since. Having said that, Baylore is coming off an impressive 35-31 home win over Oklahoma State last week despite being outyarded by 111 total yards in that game. Despite playing games at Texas and Oklahoma this season (going 1-1 ATS in those games and almost winning in Austin), this is possibly the most underrated and best defense they will see all season. Iowa State has allowed only 16 points per home game in 2018 and allowed only 282.3 total yards and 4.1 yards per play in those games. The QB protection has been horrendous for Baylor the last three games as they have allowed 10 sacks while Iowa State has 9 sacks in their last three games overall. Baylor has turned the ball over 6 times in their last three overall while Iowa State have held opponents to 5.4 yards per pass attempt in those games. For the first time this season Baylor will struggle to score points.

The Iowa State Cyclones are forcing me into my third chalk play of 10+ points in the Big 12 Conference today which looking back is a little bit weird but this is one of the most underrated teams in the Country. The Cyclones have won four straight games coming in beating Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Texas Tech and Kansas while outyarding each of those opponents by at least 50 total yards in those games. Baylor's defense is horrendous and has allowed 41.8 points per game in their last three away from home while also allowing 454.8 total yards of offense and a whopping 7.1 yards per play in those games. Iowa State should be able to run the ball down Baylor's throats as well as throw the ball deep down field as they average 9.0 yards per pass attempt at home this season and face a Bears defense that has allowed a whopping 9.6 yards per pass attempt away from home in 2018. Keep in mind also that Baylor is averaging 8.5 penalties per road game to Iowa State's 5.8 per game at home. Iowa State offense should roll in this one.

Iowa State is one win away from confirming their spot in a Bowl Game later on this year and although they have not beat Baylor at home since 2012, this is their best team in quite some time. Baylor covered the spread last week in their home win over Oklahoma State but this team is 0-5 ATS in their last five games coming off a spread cover. This is a great spot to fade them. Iowa State is an impressive 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games coming off a straight up win and they are 24-6-1 ATS in their last 31 games overall. Along with Fresno State that has to be right up there in the country for top ATS team the last 3-4 seasons. The Cyclones have covered the spread in 16 of their last 21 home games and are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games coming off a game where they allowed less than 20 points. This team is playing some great football right now and the HOME TEAM is 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings with Baylor failing to cover the spread in almost five years now when these two schools meet. The number looks like high but Iowa State is the real deal.

Trend of the Game: Iowa State is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games coming off a straight up win.


Iowa State 48, Baylor 10





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Tulane Green Wave -11 (10 Units)

This is a bit of an underground play and I hope not too many people are on this but the East Carolina Pirates are bad and I have to take my first shot at going against them with their 2-6 SU and ATS record on the season. The Pirates have not played on the road in well over a month now with their last three games (all losses) being played at home. In their last road game they were blown out of the water to the tune of a 49-6 loss as a +10 point road underdog where they were outyarded by 274 total yards in that game. To their credit they played okay in home losses to Memphis, UCF and Houston the last three weeks but went 0-3 ATS in all three games. The problem with East Carolina is that they can't run the ball despite averaging 32.7 run attempts per game they still manage only 2.4 yards per carry their last three games. That won't cut it against a Tulane team allowing only 91 rushing yards per game on only 2.7 yards per carry in their last three games. Despite averaging 400+ passing yards per game in their last three games, East Carolina complete only 55.8% of their passes in those games and have thrown 4 interceptions and lost 6 fumbles in those games. Now they go on the road against a solid defense. This is bad.

The Tulane Green Wave are a virtual unknown for those who like to bet on bigger conference games in college football. This is a squad that has a chance to make a Bowl Game in 2018 with two more wins (one of them should be today) and they are coming off massive road wins at Tulsa and at South Florida both as road underdogs and in games where they outyarded both the Golden Hurricane and the Bulls. Impressive stuff. Now it has to translate to big wins at home where don't forget this team took Wake Forest to overtime in the opener and lost (but covered) and where the Green Wave also crushed Memphis 40-24 a few weeks back. Their last time here they lost to SMU but that seems to be a one off given their two road wins at Tulsa and South Florida in the following weeks. This is an offense that is averaging 30.5 points per home game in 2018 and who are averaging 427.8 total yards of offense per game at home this season 6.1 yards per play. East Carolina is allowing 34.5 points per away game this season and their secondary has been awful in those games allowing opponents to complete 74.0% of their passes for 9.6 yards per pass attempt. The Green Wave should have a huge game at home with Bowl eligibility on the line.

Take a look back at some stats and tell me East Carolina is not the worst spread team in Conference play. They are 5-21-1 ATS in their last 27 Conference games and have covered the spread in only 14 of their last 53 games overall. Let that sink in for a second. Now they have to go to Tulane against a team coming off two road wins (straight up) as an underdog and a team that has been great at home all season? Tulane comes into this game 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games and their defense is playing some great football. The Green Wave are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing only less than 20 points in their previous game and they are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win. The HOME TEAM is 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven meetings and Tulane has covered four straight in this series. Going Green today!

Trend of the Game: East Carolina is 5-21-1 ATS in their last 27 conference games.


Tulane 46, East Carolina 18





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Georgia Bulldogs -13.5 (10 Units)

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -24.5 (10 Units)







GOOD LUCK TO ALL THIS WEEK!




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Mr. Flava......solid looking card buddy...…….continue those winning ways...…...enjoy the weekend ……..indy