These Teams Have NO CLUE When To Fo For 2

Biz · Nov 11, 2018

Atlanta scores, makes it 28-16.

They go for 2.

Kick the XP you are down a FG and a TD/2 pt conversion.

Make the 2 Pt conversion you need a 7 and a 3.

Miss it you need two TDs.

They go for 2 and miss it. Now you need 2 TDs.

Brilliant.

sunshine11 · Nov 11, 2018

You bet Atlanta?

Biz · Nov 11, 2018

Detroit makes it 34-22.

They go for 2.

Miss it.

Now you need two TDS instead of a FG and TD/2pt conv

Brilliant.

MLB · Nov 11, 2018

I thought the same thing! Idiotic

schustafa · Nov 11, 2018

it's they right move , you just don#t understand it

they need to go for 2 either way
its just a question of now or later with the next td
its better to do it know beacuse then they know the result of the conversion earlier and thus
have the knowledge if they need to go for 2 tds or td +fg
thats impacts the decisions and play calling
if they do the conversion with no time left and fail then the cant react anymore, relatively easy concept to understand

vinnyvegas · Nov 11, 2018

schustafa said:
it's they right move , you just don#t understand it

they need to go for 2 either way
its just a question of now or later with the next td
its better to do it know beacuse then they know the result of the conversion earlier and thus
have the knowledge if they need to go for 2 tds or td +fg
thats impacts the decisions and play calling
if they do the conversion with no time left and fail then the cant react anymore, relatively easy concept to understand

I've coached the game enough to DISAGREE completely with that logic or scenario...NEVER EVER CHASE points till the very END. Take the 1 point every time till the end when you need the 2 to tie. Watched the game hundreds and thousands of games to always see it play out that chasing points w/ 2 is STUPID and rarely works. It does, but more times than not it does not. These coaches are DUMB

MLB · Nov 11, 2018

schustafa said:
it's they right move , you just don#t understand it

they need to go for 2 either way
its just a question of now or later with the next td
its better to do it know beacuse then they know the result of the conversion earlier and thus
have the knowledge if they need to go for 2 tds or td +fg
thats impacts the decisions and play calling
if they do the conversion with no time left and fail then the cant react anymore, relatively easy concept to understand

This is completely wrong. 28-16 w/Xp makes it 28-17 (11pt deficit) with an 11 pt deficit, the next TD with 2 pt conversion puts the game at a 3 pt deficit. Atlanta went for 2 at 28-16 and failed. Now they need 12. The next TD they score they would have been at 28-22. Now a 2 point conversion makes it 28-24, and a 4 point deficit! You sir, do not understand the numbers!

dg84 · Nov 11, 2018

Actually, it's not as clear cut, or as simple a concept as you seem to think. If you go for two & fail, you're down 12 & now have no choice but to score two TD's in a limited amount of time. However, if they would have kicked the xp to pull within 11, it gives them far more options over the last 4:30 minutes. Coaches typically don't want to chase points until they absolutely have to. Let's assume your correct though & it is the better choice from a mathematical standpoint. Explain why Atlanta punted down 12 after the conversion failed? You'd think a coach who knows the percentages would realize punting down two TD's with 4:30 minutes left doesn't give your team the best odds for victory.

MLB · Nov 11, 2018

dg84 said:
Actually, it's not as clear cut, or as simple a concept as you seem to think. If you go for two & fail, you're down 12 & now have no choice but to score two TD's in a limited amount of time. However, if they would have kicked the xp to pull within 11, it gives them far more options over the last 4:30 minutes. Coaches typically don't want to chase points until they absolutely have to. Let's assume your correct though & it is the better choice from a mathematical standpoint. Explain why Atlanta punted down 12 after the conversion failed? You'd think a coach who knows the percentages would realize punting down two TD's with 4:30 minutes left doesn't give your team the best odds for victory.

Most of them aren't among the most intelligent creatures roaming the planet! Lol

MLB · Nov 11, 2018

I'm speaking strictly as it relates to the math and how scores are awarded in the NFL. I can't possibly jump into the decision making of coaches when it comes to punting or play calling.

Biz · Nov 11, 2018

sunshine11 said:
You bet Atlanta?

I bet Cleveland, it has nothing to do with a wager.

Since you've added nothing to the discussion, get lost.

Biz · Nov 11, 2018

schustafa said:
it's they right move , you just don#t understand it

they need to go for 2 either way
its just a question of now or later with the next td
its better to do it know beacuse then they know the result of the conversion earlier and thus
have the knowledge if they need to go for 2 tds or td +fg
thats impacts the decisions and play calling
if they do the conversion with no time left and fail then the cant react anymore, relatively easy concept to understand

I understand completely, and the logic isn't there. Heres the problem with your logic.

Once you've missed the 2 points, you have to go for 2 TDS. That severely limits your options going forward.

Game situations change, momentum, etc... You can't assume you'll have the same success rate going for it now, as opposed to later.

Take your 16 posts and condescending attitude and go fuck yourself.

It isn't the proper decision, no matter how brilliant you make yourself out to be.

schustafa · Nov 11, 2018

late in the game its clearly mathematically better to go for two when down 12
(haven't those watcjed particular games, so please don't refer to those) , the debate about that stuff is long over ,
especially with the xtra point taken back

a link thta tries to explain it surfiical
although there are people that can write books about that kind of stuff

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/when-to-go-for-2-for-real/

Biz · Nov 11, 2018

Kick the XP. Now you need a FG and TD/2 points.

The downside of missing far exceeds the upside of making it.

Relatively easy concept to understand. Its the right move to do it this way, you just don't understand it.

Biz · Nov 11, 2018

I don't give a shit what article you want to cite. It isn't better.

varkeyboy · Nov 11, 2018

I completely agree with you....

Coaches have gone out of their mind on this.

Sometimes I wonder if half these coaches can do simple Math.

Biz · Nov 11, 2018

	EST. CHANGE IN WIN PROB. IF YOU GET …
MARGIN AFTER TD	+1	+2 (VS. +1)	BETTER OPTION	MARGIN AFTER TD	+1	+2 (VS. +1)	BETTER OPTION
-15	0.5	1.0	Two	0	8.4	1.8	One
-14	1.0	0.4	One	1	1.8	6.5	Two
-13	0.4	1.1	Two	2	6.5	5.0	One
-12	1.1	1.3	Same	3	5.0	2.9	One
-11	1.3	2.2	Two	4	2.9	3.1	Same
-10	2.2	2.9	Two	5	3.1	5.2	Two
-9	2.9	3.3	Same	6	5.2	3.3	One
-8	3.3	5.2	Two	7	3.3	2.9	Same
-7	5.2	3.1	One	8	2.9	2.2	One
-6	3.1	2.9	Same	9	2.2	1.3	One
-5	2.9	5.0	Two	10	1.3	1.1	Same
-4	5.0	6.5	Two	11	1.1	0.4	One
-3	6.5	1.8	One	12	0.4	1.0	Two
-2	1.8	8.4	Two	13	1.0	0.5	One
-1	8.4	8.4	Same	14	0.5	0.7	Same

"late in the game its clearly mathematically better to go for two when down 12"

Notice the -12?????? It sames SAME. So clearly is isn't mathematical to go for it.

Learn how to read a chart before you pop off as a condescending asshole.

MLB · Nov 11, 2018

Biz said:
EST. CHANGE IN WIN PROB. IF YOU GET …
MARGIN AFTER TD +1 +2 (VS. +1) BETTER OPTION MARGIN AFTER TD +1 +2 (VS. +1) BETTER OPTION
-15 0.5 1.0 Two 0 8.4 1.8 One
-14 1.0 0.4 One 1 1.8 6.5 Two
-13 0.4 1.1 Two 2 6.5 5.0 One
-12 1.1 1.3 Same 3 5.0 2.9 One
-11 1.3 2.2 Two 4 2.9 3.1 Same
-10 2.2 2.9 Two 5 3.1 5.2 Two
-9 2.9 3.3 Same 6 5.2 3.3 One
-8 3.3 5.2 Two 7 3.3 2.9 Same
-7 5.2 3.1 One 8 2.9 2.2 One
-6 3.1 2.9 Same 9 2.2 1.3 One
-5 2.9 5.0 Two 10 1.3 1.1 Same
-4 5.0 6.5 Two 11 1.1 0.4 One
-3 6.5 1.8 One 12 0.4 1.0 Two
-2 1.8 8.4 Two 13 1.0 0.5 One
-1 8.4 8.4 Same 14 0.5 0.7 Same

"late in the game its clearly mathematically better to go for two when down 12"

Notice the -12?????? It sames SAME. So clearly is isn't mathematical to go for it.

Learn how to read a chart before you pop off as a condescending asshole.

Right! This stuff isn't rocket science! It's 2nd or 3rd grade math!

Biz · Nov 11, 2018

Well according to the genius with the 20 posts, it is...and we simply don't understand.

MLB · Nov 11, 2018

I didn't have anything wagered in either game but it drives me absolutely crazy when mismanagement occurs. These announcers talk about these coaches at times like they're involved in the NASA program and then they mismanage games on a weekly basis.

These Teams Have NO CLUE When To Fo For 2

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