Week 12 easiest money on the board, Miami vs VT

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"I like Beer", "I drink beer"

I do not like emotional drama. I like easy covers 15-20 points with my teams pulling away in the 4th Q.

I am 8-0 betting VT games this year, most years I am .800. This year is turning out to be special and fairly easy to read.
There was trouble big time in the off season at VT. Frank is 3 years gone now and the pot is starting to boil. VT lost several key defensive players to the NFL early, Then there were academic problems with several more and a weed arrest.Then the QB Jackson was in deep trouble with the Honor code at VT, ie he got busted cheating in off season. Normally for a Military type school any average Joe would have been busted and thrown out of VT. Jackson survived and it all just magically disappeared. Jackson never skipped a beat and was ready for the opener vs FSU. I did not know what to expect from VT, however they showed up and destroyed FSU and a road dog. Everything looked good 9-3 type season for VT was in order.

Then ODU showed up in week 3 after a whipping of William and Mary. Jackson tore his knee in the ODU game and VT lost which
is inexcusable for a top 15 team. Then in locker room after the game VT's top DE from a depleted defense got into a fight with a coach. He was off the team that night. Bad news for a defense hurting at LB, DL and secondary. The players that filed in are young, weak, and green. They need 2 years in weight room and a ton more reps.

With Jackson gone all that was left was a walkon transfer QB(Willis) from Kansas. Who himself was not ready for D1 football and may never be.

VT has had 4 losses in a row and it should be 5 they got lucky at UNC. All 4 games were blow outs with each one being worse then the last. VT gave up 55 points to Pitt, ugly. It's boys vs men in these games, it's nothing VT can do to correct without another year or 2 of reps, weight room and maturity.

Now comes Miami to Blacksburg at 3:30 on Sat. The students are on break might be 1/2 filled stadium, like that matters. Miami is weak on offense but posses skill players at RB and receiver along with a decent OL to seriously hurt VT this weekend.

On defense Miami is not bad they have talent and can shut VT down and force turnovers. Richt needs a win for the Canes, they have not quit yet, VT has the potential to get routed, too much skill and speed to keep up with Miami. Miami is -3 1/2, unless it snows 2 feet, Miami wins this one by 20.
 

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Adding Mia+4x to my teaser! Thanks for info w-thumbs!^
 

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Mobile QB's have been Bud Fosters nightmare for 10 years now. Bud will be forced into playing more zone his Corners are no match for
Miami's WR and he can't afford Miami's QB to run down the field in man coverage. Miami will spread VT out and gash his base 4-3 with both Rb's
and a mobile QB. Miami is only - 3 1/2 because the QB situation is not settled. GT threw one pass (incomplete) but destroyed VT's defense on the ground. Miami won't have to throw much either, the running game with a running QB will be enough.

BTW VT lost it's best DE in Pitt game. Houshon Gaines.

Willis , the walkon QB, was VT's leading rusher vs Pitt 65 yards on 16 carries, he threw 3 TD's but was hurried and sacked a lot.[FONT=Open Sans, sans-serif] Hit 28 times.

Pitt had 500 yards rushing last week

Of course Miami could have 5 turnovers and the team Flu but short of a disaster this is Miami's game to screw up.
[/FONT]
 

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VT is so bad it's hard to gauge how good Pitt is from that game. Wake beat NCST which surprised everyone, I tend to think NCST had
poor showing. At +6 on the road Pitt is getting respect, perhaps too much after routing a High School defense at home. Im sorry I really dont
don't have a strong opinion. Who do you like?

NW -2 vs Minn looks promising, NW will show up they are well coached. Minn seems weak to me only 2 seems low. Neb +2 vs Mich State I think Frost has turned the corner, but we'll see.

UVA is +6.5 vs GT, somehow UVA seems to play GT better then VT does. VT has a 14 game winning streak vs UVA. If UVA gets to +7 I'd nibble
 

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I usually have a pretty strong read on Northwestern. I have absolutely no explanation why they are only -2. Cats have lost exactly one Big Ten game in the last 13, obviously the best record in the entire conference over that period. They are rolling right now after some early season suckage with their only loss being by 3 points to Michigan, who they absolutely had on the ropes. Now, I hate to play the Cats as a favorite and would be hesitant to do so at 4+. However, with this short line you are essentially picking who will win the game. 12-1 in the last 13 tells me who I think should win.

One small addendum, I consider Northwestern to be a better road team than home team (through multiple years) so I consider an away game against a team without a home advantage to be nothing to fear.
 

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I usually have a pretty strong read on Northwestern. I have absolutely no explanation why they are only -2. Cats have lost exactly one Big Ten game in the last 13, obviously the best record in the entire conference over that period. They are rolling right now after some early season suckage with their only loss being by 3 points to Michigan, who they absolutely had on the ropes. Now, I hate to play the Cats as a favorite and would be hesitant to do so at 4+. However, with this short line you are essentially picking who will win the game. 12-1 in the last 13 tells me who I think should win.

One small addendum, I consider Northwestern to be a better road team than home team (through multiple years) so I consider an away game against a team without a home advantage to be nothing to fear.


They won their division...major letdown????
 

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That's the only thing I can think especially after winning the division last week and with Illinois, nominally their principal rival up next week. They had their let down early in the season with Akron beating them AT HOME. My guess is that they learned their lesson.

NU hasn't been much on offense al year so they aren't going to run away from any team but this isn't a line that demands anything but the win
 

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That's the only thing I can think especially after winning the division last week and with Illinois, nominally their principal rival up next week. They had their let down early in the season with Akron beating them AT HOME. My guess is that they learned their lesson.

NU hasn't been much on offense al year so they aren't going to run away from any team but this isn't a line that demands anything but the win

Minnesota now -1. Crazy movement
 

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"I like Beer", "I drink beer"

I do not like emotional drama. I like easy covers 15-20 points with my teams pulling away in the 4th Q.

I am 8-0 betting VT games this year, most years I am .800. This year is turning out to be special and fairly easy to read.
There was trouble big time in the off season at VT. Frank is 3 years gone now and the pot is starting to boil. VT lost several key defensive players to the NFL early, Then there were academic problems with several more and a weed arrest.Then the QB Jackson was in deep trouble with the Honor code at VT, ie he got busted cheating in off season. Normally for a Military type school any average Joe would have been busted and thrown out of VT. Jackson survived and it all just magically disappeared. Jackson never skipped a beat and was ready for the opener vs FSU. I did not know what to expect from VT, however they showed up and destroyed FSU and a road dog. Everything looked good 9-3 type season for VT was in order.

Then ODU showed up in week 3 after a whipping of William and Mary. Jackson tore his knee in the ODU game and VT lost which
is inexcusable for a top 15 team. Then in locker room after the game VT's top DE from a depleted defense got into a fight with a coach. He was off the team that night. Bad news for a defense hurting at LB, DL and secondary. The players that filed in are young, weak, and green. They need 2 years in weight room and a ton more reps.

With Jackson gone all that was left was a walkon transfer QB(Willis) from Kansas. Who himself was not ready for D1 football and may never be.

VT has had 4 losses in a row and it should be 5 they got lucky at UNC. All 4 games were blow outs with each one being worse then the last. VT gave up 55 points to Pitt, ugly. It's boys vs men in these games, it's nothing VT can do to correct without another year or 2 of reps, weight room and maturity.

Now comes Miami to Blacksburg at 3:30 on Sat. The students are on break might be 1/2 filled stadium, like that matters. Miami is weak on offense but posses skill players at RB and receiver along with a decent OL to seriously hurt VT this weekend.

On defense Miami is not bad they have talent and can shut VT down and force turnovers. Richt needs a win for the Canes, they have not quit yet, VT has the potential to get routed, too much skill and speed to keep up with Miami. Miami is -3 1/2, unless it snows 2 feet, Miami wins this one by 20.

Outstanding.
Rare such detailed insight provided on this board, I sensed a lot was wrong with VT, went against them lately, this reinforces it.
Thanks.
GL!
 

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I usually have a pretty strong read on Northwestern. I have absolutely no explanation why they are only -2. Cats have lost exactly one Big Ten game in the last 13, obviously the best record in the entire conference over that period. They are rolling right now after some early season suckage with their only loss being by 3 points to Michigan, who they absolutely had on the ropes. Now, I hate to play the Cats as a favorite and would be hesitant to do so at 4+. However, with this short line you are essentially picking who will win the game. 12-1 in the last 13 tells me who I think should win.

One small addendum, I consider Northwestern to be a better road team than home team (through multiple years) so I consider an away game against a team without a home advantage to be nothing to fear.

I am looking at this game, too,
Minny needs a win for bowl eligibility, they are at 5 wins and play at Wisky next week so want to get # 6, now.
Minny just pounded Purdue so Minny might be gelling.
Minny is at home... NW second road game in a row.
NW might let down after huge win at Iowa, look forward to Big 10 Championship.
BUT NW is SO resilient, scrappy, and with that RB emerging, hard to go against them except for a small play, or pass.
GL!
 

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I am looking at this game, too,
Minny needs a win for bowl eligibility, they are at 5 wins and play at Wisky next week so want to get # 6, now.
Minny just pounded Purdue so Minny might be gelling.
Minny is at home... NW second road game in a row.
NW might let down after huge win at Iowa, look forward to Big 10 Championship.
BUT NW is SO resilient, scrappy, and with that RB emerging, hard to go against them except for a small play, or pass.
GL!

like I said, I think NU is a better home than road team and both Iowa and Min are about half hour plane rides from Chicago so the back to back doesn't concern me
 

Biz

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This line has completely flipped. As noted Minnesota needs a win to be Bowl eligible, and NW has nothing to play for on the road. This line screams Minnesota.
 

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thanks CODEBREAKER great insight
i value this kind of info and look for it regurally
you have a great read on VT
 

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I can tell you everything about VT, I cant speak for Miami, however, this is Miami's game to lose. VT has not had a problem with effort they will give it 100% they will not lay down. Their problem is talent. Miami has all the tools to exploit VT this weekend, I think Richt is seasoned enough to have Miami ready to play. He knows how to exploit Bud he did a masterful job at UGA in a bowl game against Frank 10 years ago.

Miami will be able to gash VT on the ground all day. Bud is down to playing a base 4-3 zone. His model is an 8 man attacking front with press coverage. Bud does not have the talent or experience with corners, safties and LBs to play press defense. Fuente and Bud are at each others throats. Fuente wants zone Bud wants to attack. VT is going to have to score 40 to win this game, unless Miami hands that to them expect no more then 24 points from VT and that is generous.

Expect to see Miami's RB's in VT secondary early and often in this game. Bud can't risk press coverage to have the safties in the box playing base 4-3 VT will get gashed for a lot of 20-30 yard runs. With 8 in the Box Miami will take a few to the house. Willis QB may not make it to half time expect miami's front 7 to punish him badly. the VT backup Miami will feast on.

BOL weather looks Okay
 

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I know they aren't the old V Tech...but 4 straight home losses? They are also getting points. And it is not like Miami is that good. That is honestly my only angle. I don't have a strong opinion other than that.
 

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I appreciate the VT info. I leaned Miami before reading, now Canes are a play.

as for the Gophers-2 screams trap game. take em-2 while u can. I see 2.5 here in vegas.
 

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CB, thanks for the VT info. 2 bad teams Navy vs Tulsa. The last three opponents for Tulsa had more than 150 rush attempts. Heck, even Connecticut had 255 rushing yards. How much left in the tank for Tulsa. I think Navy will run wild with triple option. Love Navy in this spot.
 

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