Teams like UCF have typically been successful in this spot. The favorite in games between ranked teams covers 55% of the time, per Bet Labs data. And when the underdog is getting the majority of bets, like Cincy is, the favorite hits at a 61% clip.
Market info from The Action Networks contributing Books ...
After opening as an 8-point favorite, Central Florida has drawn only 39% of bettors, which would be its smallest backing of the season if it holds. The Knights have also generated only 38% of dollars wagered on the game, which has contributed to the line move from -8 to -7
As for the total, the over has been one of the most popular bets of the week. It’s attracted 86% of bets and 89% of dollars, moving this number from 58.5 to 61.
During UCF’s 22-game winning streak, they are 14-7-1 against the spread (66.7%) and has only played five games prior to Cincinnati with a spread under double-digits. The Knights are 4-1 ATS in those games, covering by 13.1 points per game.
Cincinnati’s margin of victory is 20.1 entering this game, and yet, the Bearcats are touchdown underdogs.
Since 2005 (regular season only), 14 teams have entered a game in November or later with similar qualifications. Those teams are a dead-even 7-7 ATS, but only three have been able to pull off the upset.