Seattle has one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL. Since drafting Russell Wilson in 2012, the Seahawks are 32-22-2 (59%) against the spread at home including the playoffs. In primetime games at home the team is 11-3-1 ATS.
Wilson has excelled under the lights. According to Bet Labs data, the 29-year-old quarterback is 19-6-2 (+12.1 units) ATS in primetime games. In fact, Wilson is the most profitable quarterback in primetime, profiting bettors almost five more units than the second-best QB, Matt Ryan.
Aaron Rodgers, on the other hand, has been mediocre in primetime games, going 26-21-1 ATS record (55.3%) and he’s just 5-9 ATS as an underdog.
Wilson has excelled under the lights. According to Bet Labs data, the 29-year-old quarterback is 19-6-2 (+12.1 units) ATS in primetime games. In fact, Wilson is the most profitable quarterback in primetime, profiting bettors almost five more units than the second-best QB, Matt Ryan.
Aaron Rodgers, on the other hand, has been mediocre in primetime games, going 26-21-1 ATS record (55.3%) and he’s just 5-9 ATS as an underdog.
From a matchup perspective, Seattle should have success on the ground. The Seahawks average 4.8 yards per carry (top 10) and are the most dedicated rushing offense in the NFL, averaging a league high 32.0 carriers per game. Green Bay allows 4.5 yards per carry (21st in league) and ranks 26th in overall run defense DVOA.
The Packers’ defensive line also ranks 30th against the run and near the bottom of the league in most other metrics.
The Packers’ defensive line also ranks 30th against the run and near the bottom of the league in most other metrics.
Insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Vegas, and Will Bernanke, lead analyst for CG Analytics in Vegas.
Osterman said Seattle has seen pointspread backing, while moneyline bettors are on Green Bay. However, bettors aren’t yet too interested in what seems like a good Thursday night matchup.
“It’s very slow so far today. We haven’t really seen much action. It’s basically been a market move,” Osterman said of The SuperBook’s adjustment to Seattle -3 (-120). “Usually we take money anytime Aaron Rodgers is playing. If you didn’t bet -2.5 early, you didn’t bet Seattle, and if you’re betting the Packers, you’re waiting to see if it gets to 3.5.
“There’s maybe some decent value in Packers moneyline, and on the pointspread, the Seahawks always have a great home-field advantage. Plus road teams are not that great on Thursday night.”
CG books also opened Seattle -2.5 and moved to 3 by late last night, and the Seahawks’ price was -120 Thursday afternoon.
“89% of all dollars on Seattle laying the points,” Bernanke said. “On the moneyline, 79% of all dollars on Seattle. And on the total, liability slightly on the Over. Ideal result as of now would be a low-scoring outright win by Green Bay.”
The total opened 49.5, dipped to 48, then got back up to 49 early Thursday.
Osterman said Seattle has seen pointspread backing, while moneyline bettors are on Green Bay. However, bettors aren’t yet too interested in what seems like a good Thursday night matchup.
“It’s very slow so far today. We haven’t really seen much action. It’s basically been a market move,” Osterman said of The SuperBook’s adjustment to Seattle -3 (-120). “Usually we take money anytime Aaron Rodgers is playing. If you didn’t bet -2.5 early, you didn’t bet Seattle, and if you’re betting the Packers, you’re waiting to see if it gets to 3.5.
“There’s maybe some decent value in Packers moneyline, and on the pointspread, the Seahawks always have a great home-field advantage. Plus road teams are not that great on Thursday night.”
CG books also opened Seattle -2.5 and moved to 3 by late last night, and the Seahawks’ price was -120 Thursday afternoon.
“89% of all dollars on Seattle laying the points,” Bernanke said. “On the moneyline, 79% of all dollars on Seattle. And on the total, liability slightly on the Over. Ideal result as of now would be a low-scoring outright win by Green Bay.”
The total opened 49.5, dipped to 48, then got back up to 49 early Thursday.
Fan Duel Meadowlands ...
"We will need the Packers. Seahawks currently attracting 60% of action."
"Moneyline at Seattle -162. Seahawks taking more than 65% of action, with one significant 5-figure bet at that price."
Total at 49, up from 48. "Per usual, we will need the Under."
"We will need the Packers. Seahawks currently attracting 60% of action."
"Moneyline at Seattle -162. Seahawks taking more than 65% of action, with one significant 5-figure bet at that price."
Total at 49, up from 48. "Per usual, we will need the Under."
