[h=1]Betting guide for Packers-Seahawks[/h]
Warren Sharp & Preston Johnson
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Where does the betting value lie in Thursday's prime-time matchup between the Panthers and Steelers? Warren Sharp and Preston Johnson provide their picks to help you place your bets.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
[h=3]Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks(-3)[/h]Total: 48
PickCenter public consensus pick: 56 percent picked Seattle
Sharp: Green Bay's biggest defensive strength is its pass rush, which ranks No. 1 in the NFL. Because of good pressure and personnel, the Packers have a top-10 pass defense. However, when the pressure doesn't hit home they give up the big play, and rank 25th in explosive pass defense.
That won't impact Seattle as much, as the Seahawks are the No. 1 most run-heavy offense. When Seattle does throw, it is the No. 7 most explosive passing offense. Seattle runs often and runs well, ranking No. 7 in efficiency and No. 1 in explosive run offense. While the Packers are strong against the pass, they rank only No. 26 defending the run. Seattle's productive run game will open up play action, and Russell Wilson is the third-best QB using play action this year.
As many defenders as the Seahawks lost since the start of the 2017 season, it's remarkable that their passing defense ranks sixth-best in the NFL. The Packers will look to attack more against the run defense of the Seahawks, which sits at No. 20 on the year -- though it has been the fifth-worst over the past three weeks. The Packers run offense is the No. 2 in the NFL, and Aaron Jones should find holes against this defense.
The Packers offense has been wildly inconsistent on the road. Green Bay is 4-0-1 at home this year, but 0-4 on the road. The Seahawks have one of the biggest home-field edges in the NFL, and have played only three home games so far this year. The home team is 7-0 over the past seven games in this series, winning by an average of 16 points per game.
Play: Seattle (-3)
Johnson: The line in this game is somewhat surprising to me. Seattle (-3, -120) implies that the Seahawks are the better team in this matchup. Sure, Seattle's home field is one of the strongest in the NFL, but that's about all they have going for them when compared to this Green Bay team.
The Packers rank eighth in offensive efficiency while the Seahawks rank 21st. The Packers rank 13th in defensive efficiency and the Seahawks rank 20th. To the surprise of everybody, Green Bay actually fields the most efficient running game in the league, gaining 5.2 yards-per-rush attempt. Seattle ranks 29th in defending the run. Pete Carroll's squad has committed the third-most penalties in the NFL this season.
My projection for the game is the Seahawks at -1, with a total of 47.7. A wager on the Packers (+3, +100) is definitely worthwhile. I haven't personally entered the market yet because money on Seattle keeps showing (opened -2.5), and the prospect of potentially getting the hook and a move to (+3.5) closer to kickoff is extremely valuable. If it never shows, however, we'll still bet here.
Pick: Packers (+3, +100)
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]
Will Tyler Lockett score a touchdown? Yes (-120) or No (EV)
Wow! Lockett is 5-foot-10, 182 pounds, and handling an 18 percent target share in the league's run-heaviest offense. Yet, the odds suggest he's more likely than not to find the end zone. The "why" behind that is obvious. Namely, he's scored seven touchdowns in nine games this season. A closer look, however, suggests that his current scoring pace is nowhere near sustainable.
Lockett has registered only five end-zone targets and his 2.2 OTD (expected touchdown rate, based on the location of his carries and targets) tells us that he's a strong candidate for regression to the mean. Lockett has caught all five of his end-zone targets this season, but has only one additional target while inside the opponent's 10-yard line. Prior to 2018, Lockett had caught just 4 of 15 career end-zone targets. This absolutely makes him an underdog to find the end zone on Thursday.
The pick: No touchdown (EV)
Warren Sharp & Preston Johnson
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Where does the betting value lie in Thursday's prime-time matchup between the Panthers and Steelers? Warren Sharp and Preston Johnson provide their picks to help you place your bets.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
PickCenter public consensus pick: 56 percent picked Seattle
Sharp: Green Bay's biggest defensive strength is its pass rush, which ranks No. 1 in the NFL. Because of good pressure and personnel, the Packers have a top-10 pass defense. However, when the pressure doesn't hit home they give up the big play, and rank 25th in explosive pass defense.
That won't impact Seattle as much, as the Seahawks are the No. 1 most run-heavy offense. When Seattle does throw, it is the No. 7 most explosive passing offense. Seattle runs often and runs well, ranking No. 7 in efficiency and No. 1 in explosive run offense. While the Packers are strong against the pass, they rank only No. 26 defending the run. Seattle's productive run game will open up play action, and Russell Wilson is the third-best QB using play action this year.
As many defenders as the Seahawks lost since the start of the 2017 season, it's remarkable that their passing defense ranks sixth-best in the NFL. The Packers will look to attack more against the run defense of the Seahawks, which sits at No. 20 on the year -- though it has been the fifth-worst over the past three weeks. The Packers run offense is the No. 2 in the NFL, and Aaron Jones should find holes against this defense.
The Packers offense has been wildly inconsistent on the road. Green Bay is 4-0-1 at home this year, but 0-4 on the road. The Seahawks have one of the biggest home-field edges in the NFL, and have played only three home games so far this year. The home team is 7-0 over the past seven games in this series, winning by an average of 16 points per game.
Play: Seattle (-3)
Johnson: The line in this game is somewhat surprising to me. Seattle (-3, -120) implies that the Seahawks are the better team in this matchup. Sure, Seattle's home field is one of the strongest in the NFL, but that's about all they have going for them when compared to this Green Bay team.
The Packers rank eighth in offensive efficiency while the Seahawks rank 21st. The Packers rank 13th in defensive efficiency and the Seahawks rank 20th. To the surprise of everybody, Green Bay actually fields the most efficient running game in the league, gaining 5.2 yards-per-rush attempt. Seattle ranks 29th in defending the run. Pete Carroll's squad has committed the third-most penalties in the NFL this season.
My projection for the game is the Seahawks at -1, with a total of 47.7. A wager on the Packers (+3, +100) is definitely worthwhile. I haven't personally entered the market yet because money on Seattle keeps showing (opened -2.5), and the prospect of potentially getting the hook and a move to (+3.5) closer to kickoff is extremely valuable. If it never shows, however, we'll still bet here.
Pick: Packers (+3, +100)
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]
Will Tyler Lockett score a touchdown? Yes (-120) or No (EV)
Wow! Lockett is 5-foot-10, 182 pounds, and handling an 18 percent target share in the league's run-heaviest offense. Yet, the odds suggest he's more likely than not to find the end zone. The "why" behind that is obvious. Namely, he's scored seven touchdowns in nine games this season. A closer look, however, suggests that his current scoring pace is nowhere near sustainable.
Lockett has registered only five end-zone targets and his 2.2 OTD (expected touchdown rate, based on the location of his carries and targets) tells us that he's a strong candidate for regression to the mean. Lockett has caught all five of his end-zone targets this season, but has only one additional target while inside the opponent's 10-yard line. Prior to 2018, Lockett had caught just 4 of 15 career end-zone targets. This absolutely makes him an underdog to find the end zone on Thursday.
The pick: No touchdown (EV)
