[h=1]Best college football bets for Week 12[/h]
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
[h=1]Season records[/h]Steele: 34-29-2 (last week: 1-4-1)
Coughlin: 37-15-1 ATS (last week: 2-2)
Fallica: 39-26-1 ATS (last week: 3-1)
As we enter a crucial stage in the college football season, each team reveals more about itself by the week, and each game offers a chance for the most observant bettors to take advantage of what they learn. Every Thursday, Phil Steele, Chris Fallica and "Stanford Steve" Coughlin pick their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are the best bets for Week 12 of the college football season:
Lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Wednesday night. As always, shop for the best price.
[h=2]Michigan State Spartans (-2.5) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (O/U 49)[/h]
12 p.m. ET Saturday
Steele: Michigan State is a good team, but it is not an elite squad. The Spartans are 3-9 ATS in their past 12 games in the role of away favorite. They average just 3.5 yards per carry on offense and complete 48.4 percent of their passes in Big Ten play. Nebraska is much better than its 3-7 record indicates, as the Cornhuskers outgained six of their foes and were a combined minus-51 yards in road losses to Wisconsin, Northwestern and Ohio State.
Nebraska averages 5.7 yards per rush and completes 66.1 percent of its passes in Big Ten play. Michigan State does have a considerable edge on defense, but Nebraska is in its home finale and getting better by the week. Michigan State, on the other hand, is coming off a big showdown game at home against Ohio State, and after a disappointing outcome, the Spartans must regroup and take to the road.
ATS pick: Nebraska +2.5
Score: Nebraska 27, Michigan State 20
Fallica: I know the Nebraska defense has had its issues this year, but Michigan State has struggled on offense all season. After a tough home loss to Ohio State last week, the Spartans go on the road and face a team and program brimming with optimism and a budding star at QB in Adrian Martinez. It's the final home game of the year for the Huskers, and I can't help but think that the goal here is to send the fans home happy and then get a win in Iowa City next week to finish what was once a lost season at 5-7.
Nebraska might not be able to run with consistency, but it'll get just enough on the ground and find some space in the back seven to notch the win.
ATS pick: Nebraska +2.5
Score: Nebraska 33, Michigan State 31
[h=2]No. 10 Ohio State Buckeyes (-14) at Maryland Terrapins (O/U 58.5)[/h]12 p.m. ET Saturday (ABC)
Coughlin: The Ohio State offense wasn't pretty last week, but I liked what I saw from the Buckeyes in short-yardage situations when they inserted Tate Martell at QB, giving them a running presence from the QB position. Maryland comes in off a brutal loss in Bloomington in which the Terrapins lost QB Kasim Hill for the year and saw their chances at a bowl dwindle; they play Ohio State and Penn State to close the season.
Maryland was severely limited on the offensive side of the ball and really focused on its run game, and you can only imagine that the Terrapins will try to do the same this week with a backup QB under center. The problem is the Ohio State defense was great against the run last week, and on the other side of the ball, the team has superior talent at the skill positions on offense. I don't see the Buckeyes looking ahead to Michigan. I'll take the road team and give the points.
ATS pick: Ohio State -14
Score: Ohio State 38, Maryland 15
[h=2]No. 22 Northwestern Wildcats (-1) at Minnesota Golden Gophers (O/U 47)[/h]12 p.m. ET Saturday
Steele: This season is Pat Fitzgerald's 13th at Northwestern. His goal heading into each season has been to make it to the Big Ten Title game, and last week's win finally clinched that spot. There has to be some letdown as the Wildcats take to the road for a second straight week. Minnesota got a big home win last week in a 41-10 rout of Purdue, as the Gophers held the Boilermakers to a season-low 233 yards. The Gophers are at five wins and need one more for a bowl bid -- and this is their home finale.
Over the past four weeks, Northwestern averaged just 296 yards per game on offense, with only 3.3 yards per rush and 145 yards per game through the air. Clayton Thorson was hitting over 60 percent prior to that stretch, but he has completed only 52.8 percent of his passes with a 3-5 TD-interception ratio while absorbing 11 sacks in that span.
Last year Northwestern had a tough run defense and allowed only 2.9 yards per carry in Big Ten play, but this year, the Wildcats are giving up 4.8 yards per carry, and the defense has just eight sacks in the past eight games. Northwestern is 6-1 in Big Ten play, but it has been outgained by 28 yards per game -- and the situation at hand greatly favors the home underdog.
ATS pick: Minnesota +1
Score: Minnesota 27, Northwestern 23
[h=2]No. 16 Iowa State Cyclones at No. 15 Texas Longhorns (-3; O/U 46.5)[/h]8 p.m. ET Saturday (Longhorn Network)
Fallica: The Cyclones will be without star RB David Montgomery for the first half, but they have already proven that they can win without him. For a half, I would expect his team to raise its game, given the reason for his suspension: Montgomery retaliated following a sucker punch against Baylor.
Iowa State's game travels. You want to go up and down? The Cyclones can do it -- see the win in Stillwater. Want a defensive game? They can go that route too, as evidenced by the domination over West Virginia. I don't know if it's because of three losses, but it seems like people are still sleeping on this team and not recognizing the impact Brock Purdy has had on this offense. At this time next week, I believe Iowa State will be playing for a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game.
ATS pick: Iowa State +3
Score: Iowa State 27, Texas 24
[h=2]Virginia Cavaliers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-6.5; O/U 54)[/h]3:30 PM ET Saturday (ACC Network)
Steele: Although Georgia Tech defeated Miami last week at home, the Yellow Jackets benefited from a fumbled kick return and a fumbled punt return, which both led to scores. They have faced three ACC teams with good defenses that do well against the option and have averaged just 287 total yards in those games. Bronco Mendenhall has always done well versus the option, dating to his days at BYU, and in four meetings against Tech, his defenses have allowed 193 rushing yards per game.
Virginia's defense is holding foes to 83 yards per game below their season averages, which is No. 21 in the country. Virginia is 4-1 in ACC Coastal games this year, and Tech is 2-3 versus those same foes. Virginia quarterback Bryce Perkins has an 18-9 TD-INT ratio and has rushed for 653 yards. In the Cavaliers' last trip to Atlanta, they had a 25-8 first-down edge but were done in by turnovers. I will take the generous points in a possible upset.
ATS pick: Virginia +6.5
Score: Georgia Tech 24, Virginia 23
[h=2]Arizona State Sun Devils at Oregon Ducks(-3.5; O/U 64)[/h]10:30 p.m. ET Saturday
Coughlin: This line stuck out to me immediately when I saw them come out, and I think it's because of the home team more than the visiting team. Oregon, as we all know, is a great team in recent history at home, and to see them giving only 3.5 points caught my attention. Plenty of people took shots at Herm Edwards before the season, but as we sit here before Week 12, if the Sun Devils win in Eugene and against Arizona in Tucson, they will play in the Pac-12 Title game.
To me, this week is a little too daunting for the guys from Tempe, as they will be without Merlin Robertson for the first half after he was ejected for targeting in the second half against UCLA last week. I'm just not confident in that offense on the road, in an environment such as Autzen Stadium. Plus, I figure the Ducks' offense will come out fast and try to get QB Justin Herbert going, as he has been average of late and hasn't thrown for more than 300 yards since the first loss of the season against Stanford. I like the home team, and I'll give the points.
ATS pick: Oregon -3.5
Score: Oregon 39, Arizona State 27
[h=2]UAB Blazers at Texas A&M Aggies (-17; O/U 45.5)[/h]7 p.m. ET Saturday (ESPN2)
Steele: Texas A&M is one of the most underrated teams in the country. The Aggies come in at just 6-4, but their losses were at home against Clemson and on the road at Alabama, Mississippi State and Auburn. Texas A&M is 5-0 ATS at home, and they outgained Clemson by 88 yards. Texas A&M has taken on the 12th-toughest schedule in college football by my calculation, while UAB has faced my No. 127-rated schedule.
UAB is a quality CUSA team, to be sure, and its defense allows just 261 yards per game, but the toughest foe it has faced is North Texas -- a team I have rated No. 63 in the country. UAB must run the ball to be successful on offense, but A&M allows just 78 yards per game rushing and 3 yards per carry.
Texas A&M has dominated foes statistically this year, holding them to 102 yards per game below their season averages while gaining 74 yards per game above what their opponents usually allow, but let Auburn off the hook. The Aggies have won their past four games by 7.5 points per game, to be fair, but Coach Fisher says they need to finish and learn to dominate -- and UAB's 9-1 record will have them focused.
ATS pick: Texas A&M (-17)
Score: Texas A&M 34, UAB 10
[h=2]Wisconsin Badgers at Purdue Boilermakers(-4.5; O/U 52.5)[/h]3:30 p.m. ET Saturday
Fallica: Purdue is 2-10 ATS in its 12-game losing streak to Wisconsin, and last year's eight-point loss as a 17-point underdog is the only one of the 12 losses decided by single digits. But this has been a lost season for the Badgers, and after Wisconsin laid a total egg in Minnesota last week, Purdue comes home, where it has been a much different team.
There has been a lot of talk about Jeff Brohm going to Louisville (my guess is it won't happen), and the Boilermakers will put forth a great effort and get bowl-eligible after an 0-3 start against a team really struggling at the QB position. Note that the Badgers have lost by double-digits in both of their games as dogs this year.
ATS pick: Purdue -4.5
Score: Purdue 34, Wisconsin 24
[h=2]Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Navy Midshipmen(-5.5; O/U 52.5)[/h]3:30 p.m. ET Saturday
Coughlin: Tulsa hasn't won a road game all season.
Navy hasn't won a game since Sept. 22.
Four of Tulsa's eight losses are by single digits.
I'll take Navy and say it wins by more than five.
ATS pick: Navy -5.5
Score: Navy 31, Tulsa 23
[h=2]FIU Panthers (-5.5) at Charlotte 49ers (O/U 47.5)[/h]2 p.m. ET Saturday (ESPN3)
Steele: Three weeks ago, I used Charlotte in this column, and it delivered a home upset of Southern Miss. The next week, it went into Knoxville and held Tennessee to a season-low 192 yards of total offense. Charlotte has a legitimate defense that holds foes to 97 yards per game below their season averages, which is No. 15 in the country. It is also a solid 6-3 ATS as a home dog.
Charlotte has faced the tougher schedule, and against the three common opponents for Charlotte and FIU, the 49ers are plus-147 yards per game, while FIU is plus-67 yards per game. My computer is calling for Charlotte to have a 325-300 yard edge, and I will take the underrated home underdogs here.
ATS pick: Charlotte +5.5
Score: Charlotte 23, FIU 20
[h=2]Utah Utes (-7) at Colorado Buffaloes (O/U 48)[/h]1:30 p.m. ET Saturday
Fallica: The Utes put forth a great performance last week in their first game without Tyler Huntley and Zack Moss. It will get tougher this week against a CU defense that held up really well for three quarters last week against Washington State and wasn't helped at all by turnovers on the offensive side of the ball. That was the first game all season that got away from CU, and I'd think in the home finale, with a chance to get bowl-eligible, the Buffs will resemble the team that started 5-0 more than the one that has dropped five straight. In its past five games as a road favorite, Utah is 1-4 ATS with three outright losses.
ATS pick: Colorado +7
Score: Colorado 28, Utah 27
[h=2]Pittsburgh Panthers (-7) at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (O/U 61)[/h]12 p.m. ET Saturday (ACC Network)
Coughlin: There's plenty for these two teams to play for. Wake Forest looks to go to a bowl game for the third straight season, which has been done only once in school history, while the Panthers come in knowing that a win clinches a spot in the ACC title game. It's crazy to think that Pitt could be the sixth team to represent the ACC Coastal Division in that game in the past six years.
I liked what I saw from the Demon Deacons last week, as they came from behind on the road against a nationally ranked team in NC State. The question is whether the Pitt run game will dominate the Deacs' defense. The Panthers are second in the ACC, averaging more than 259 yards on the ground per contest, and they will go against a defense that has not been good all season. But it is noteworthy that Wake Forest held NC State to 47 rushing yards last week. I'll take the home team and the points to cover.
ATS pick: Wake Forest +7
Score: Pitt 31, Wake Forest 30
Fallica: Pitt has been a road favorite once this season, when it lost 38-35 at North Carolina as a three-point favorite. The Panthers have their eyes set on a showdown with Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, but they'll have to navigate a tricky spot here against a team that can score and has improved as the season has gone on.
If Wake can do just enough against the Pitt run, it has a great shot to win outright against a defense that could struggle against Wake's passing game.
ATS Pick: Wake Forest +7
Score: Wake Forest 38, Pitt 35
[h=2]Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at No. 17 Kentucky Wildcats (-16; O/U 46.5)[/h]12 p.m. ET Saturday (SEC Network)
Steele: Kentucky's dream season has taken a turn for the worse. Just three weeks ago, the Wildcats were in the top 10 and SEC East contenders, and now they have lost three of their past five games, including two straight by 17 points. They need to get a good feeling back, and someone has to pay the price. SEC teams typically overlook CUSA teams, but this is Kentucky's home finale and a must-win game.
Middle Tennessee is 6-1 in conference and needs to beat UAB next week to have a chance at the CUSA title game (it also needs one FIU loss). The Blue Raiders have mailed it in against two SEC foes this season, losing to Vanderbilt 35-7 and Georgia 49-7. Middle Tennessee is actually minus-26 yards per game this year, and I look for an angry and motivated Kentucky to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.
ATS pick: Kentucky -16
Score: Kentucky 34, Middle Tennessee 10
[h=2]Stanford Cardinal (-2) at California Golden Bears (O/U 45)[/h]7:30 p.m. ET Saturday
Coughlin: This one just doesn't feel right. Cal has overcome a lot this year, most recently coming back to beat USC on the road last week to become bowl-eligible. But when I look back, the last time these two rivals came into the "Big Game" with the same record, Cal came out victorious in Palo Alto as a pretty big favorite. From my perspective, it might be the most painful loss of the Jim Harbaugh/David Shaw era on The Farm.
Stanford has won every meeting since, but you have to remember that Cal equaled its longest win streak in the series with five straight victories from 2002 to '06 and won seven of eight from 2002 to '09. The Bears have done whatever they needed to do on offense to get wins this season, and they even beat Washington without scoring an offensive TD. I think the home team covers.
ATS pick: Cal +2
Score: Stanford 21, Cal 20
Fallica: The Stanford offense has been predictable and unable to control the line of scrimmage all year. Now a Cal defense, which is in the top 10 nationally in defensive EPA, gets its shot at the Cardinal. Cal is 2-6 ATS in its eight-game losing streak to Stanford and lost by only three as a 13.5-point dog last season. It has been a year of snapping streaks for the Bears, who have already beaten USC and Washington. Next on the list is reclaiming the Axe for the first time since 2009.
ATS pick: Cal +2
Score: Cal 22, Stanford 21
[h=2]Arizona Wildcats at No. 8 Washington State Cougars (-9.5; O/U 62.5)[/h]10:30 p.m. ET Saturday (ESPN)
Steele: It is Pac-12 after dark, and the Cougar frenzy continues to build in Pullman. Washington might be on deck, but there is no looking ahead for a Washington State team that has playoff aspirations and just played its best game of the year on the road last week, beating Colorado 31-7. This game is at night, which will have the crowd at its loudest, and the temperatures will be in the 30s and falling that night against Arizona.
The Wildcats have been playing better of late, but they are 4-11 ATS as away underdogs the past four years, and in their two games against teams with winning records on the road this season, Arizona lost by 27 and 32 points. Washington State not only has the stronger offense, but also its defense is holding foes to 78 yards per game below their season averages, while Arizona is allowing opponents 3 yards above their averages. The Cougars also have the edge on special teams.
My average game grades have Washington State winning by 17 points, and that does not include the heightened home edge.
ATS pick: Washington State -9.5
Score: Washington State 41, Arizona 23
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[h=1]Season records[/h]Steele: 34-29-2 (last week: 1-4-1)
Coughlin: 37-15-1 ATS (last week: 2-2)
Fallica: 39-26-1 ATS (last week: 3-1)
As we enter a crucial stage in the college football season, each team reveals more about itself by the week, and each game offers a chance for the most observant bettors to take advantage of what they learn. Every Thursday, Phil Steele, Chris Fallica and "Stanford Steve" Coughlin pick their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are the best bets for Week 12 of the college football season:
Lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Wednesday night. As always, shop for the best price.
[h=2]Michigan State Spartans (-2.5) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (O/U 49)[/h]
12 p.m. ET Saturday
Steele: Michigan State is a good team, but it is not an elite squad. The Spartans are 3-9 ATS in their past 12 games in the role of away favorite. They average just 3.5 yards per carry on offense and complete 48.4 percent of their passes in Big Ten play. Nebraska is much better than its 3-7 record indicates, as the Cornhuskers outgained six of their foes and were a combined minus-51 yards in road losses to Wisconsin, Northwestern and Ohio State.
Nebraska averages 5.7 yards per rush and completes 66.1 percent of its passes in Big Ten play. Michigan State does have a considerable edge on defense, but Nebraska is in its home finale and getting better by the week. Michigan State, on the other hand, is coming off a big showdown game at home against Ohio State, and after a disappointing outcome, the Spartans must regroup and take to the road.
ATS pick: Nebraska +2.5
Score: Nebraska 27, Michigan State 20
Fallica: I know the Nebraska defense has had its issues this year, but Michigan State has struggled on offense all season. After a tough home loss to Ohio State last week, the Spartans go on the road and face a team and program brimming with optimism and a budding star at QB in Adrian Martinez. It's the final home game of the year for the Huskers, and I can't help but think that the goal here is to send the fans home happy and then get a win in Iowa City next week to finish what was once a lost season at 5-7.
Nebraska might not be able to run with consistency, but it'll get just enough on the ground and find some space in the back seven to notch the win.
ATS pick: Nebraska +2.5
Score: Nebraska 33, Michigan State 31
[h=2]No. 10 Ohio State Buckeyes (-14) at Maryland Terrapins (O/U 58.5)[/h]12 p.m. ET Saturday (ABC)
Coughlin: The Ohio State offense wasn't pretty last week, but I liked what I saw from the Buckeyes in short-yardage situations when they inserted Tate Martell at QB, giving them a running presence from the QB position. Maryland comes in off a brutal loss in Bloomington in which the Terrapins lost QB Kasim Hill for the year and saw their chances at a bowl dwindle; they play Ohio State and Penn State to close the season.
Maryland was severely limited on the offensive side of the ball and really focused on its run game, and you can only imagine that the Terrapins will try to do the same this week with a backup QB under center. The problem is the Ohio State defense was great against the run last week, and on the other side of the ball, the team has superior talent at the skill positions on offense. I don't see the Buckeyes looking ahead to Michigan. I'll take the road team and give the points.
ATS pick: Ohio State -14
Score: Ohio State 38, Maryland 15
[h=2]No. 22 Northwestern Wildcats (-1) at Minnesota Golden Gophers (O/U 47)[/h]12 p.m. ET Saturday
Steele: This season is Pat Fitzgerald's 13th at Northwestern. His goal heading into each season has been to make it to the Big Ten Title game, and last week's win finally clinched that spot. There has to be some letdown as the Wildcats take to the road for a second straight week. Minnesota got a big home win last week in a 41-10 rout of Purdue, as the Gophers held the Boilermakers to a season-low 233 yards. The Gophers are at five wins and need one more for a bowl bid -- and this is their home finale.
Over the past four weeks, Northwestern averaged just 296 yards per game on offense, with only 3.3 yards per rush and 145 yards per game through the air. Clayton Thorson was hitting over 60 percent prior to that stretch, but he has completed only 52.8 percent of his passes with a 3-5 TD-interception ratio while absorbing 11 sacks in that span.
Last year Northwestern had a tough run defense and allowed only 2.9 yards per carry in Big Ten play, but this year, the Wildcats are giving up 4.8 yards per carry, and the defense has just eight sacks in the past eight games. Northwestern is 6-1 in Big Ten play, but it has been outgained by 28 yards per game -- and the situation at hand greatly favors the home underdog.
ATS pick: Minnesota +1
Score: Minnesota 27, Northwestern 23
[h=2]No. 16 Iowa State Cyclones at No. 15 Texas Longhorns (-3; O/U 46.5)[/h]8 p.m. ET Saturday (Longhorn Network)
Fallica: The Cyclones will be without star RB David Montgomery for the first half, but they have already proven that they can win without him. For a half, I would expect his team to raise its game, given the reason for his suspension: Montgomery retaliated following a sucker punch against Baylor.
Iowa State's game travels. You want to go up and down? The Cyclones can do it -- see the win in Stillwater. Want a defensive game? They can go that route too, as evidenced by the domination over West Virginia. I don't know if it's because of three losses, but it seems like people are still sleeping on this team and not recognizing the impact Brock Purdy has had on this offense. At this time next week, I believe Iowa State will be playing for a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game.
ATS pick: Iowa State +3
Score: Iowa State 27, Texas 24
[h=2]Virginia Cavaliers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-6.5; O/U 54)[/h]3:30 PM ET Saturday (ACC Network)
Steele: Although Georgia Tech defeated Miami last week at home, the Yellow Jackets benefited from a fumbled kick return and a fumbled punt return, which both led to scores. They have faced three ACC teams with good defenses that do well against the option and have averaged just 287 total yards in those games. Bronco Mendenhall has always done well versus the option, dating to his days at BYU, and in four meetings against Tech, his defenses have allowed 193 rushing yards per game.
Virginia's defense is holding foes to 83 yards per game below their season averages, which is No. 21 in the country. Virginia is 4-1 in ACC Coastal games this year, and Tech is 2-3 versus those same foes. Virginia quarterback Bryce Perkins has an 18-9 TD-INT ratio and has rushed for 653 yards. In the Cavaliers' last trip to Atlanta, they had a 25-8 first-down edge but were done in by turnovers. I will take the generous points in a possible upset.
ATS pick: Virginia +6.5
Score: Georgia Tech 24, Virginia 23
[h=2]Arizona State Sun Devils at Oregon Ducks(-3.5; O/U 64)[/h]10:30 p.m. ET Saturday
Coughlin: This line stuck out to me immediately when I saw them come out, and I think it's because of the home team more than the visiting team. Oregon, as we all know, is a great team in recent history at home, and to see them giving only 3.5 points caught my attention. Plenty of people took shots at Herm Edwards before the season, but as we sit here before Week 12, if the Sun Devils win in Eugene and against Arizona in Tucson, they will play in the Pac-12 Title game.
To me, this week is a little too daunting for the guys from Tempe, as they will be without Merlin Robertson for the first half after he was ejected for targeting in the second half against UCLA last week. I'm just not confident in that offense on the road, in an environment such as Autzen Stadium. Plus, I figure the Ducks' offense will come out fast and try to get QB Justin Herbert going, as he has been average of late and hasn't thrown for more than 300 yards since the first loss of the season against Stanford. I like the home team, and I'll give the points.
ATS pick: Oregon -3.5
Score: Oregon 39, Arizona State 27
[h=2]UAB Blazers at Texas A&M Aggies (-17; O/U 45.5)[/h]7 p.m. ET Saturday (ESPN2)
Steele: Texas A&M is one of the most underrated teams in the country. The Aggies come in at just 6-4, but their losses were at home against Clemson and on the road at Alabama, Mississippi State and Auburn. Texas A&M is 5-0 ATS at home, and they outgained Clemson by 88 yards. Texas A&M has taken on the 12th-toughest schedule in college football by my calculation, while UAB has faced my No. 127-rated schedule.
UAB is a quality CUSA team, to be sure, and its defense allows just 261 yards per game, but the toughest foe it has faced is North Texas -- a team I have rated No. 63 in the country. UAB must run the ball to be successful on offense, but A&M allows just 78 yards per game rushing and 3 yards per carry.
Texas A&M has dominated foes statistically this year, holding them to 102 yards per game below their season averages while gaining 74 yards per game above what their opponents usually allow, but let Auburn off the hook. The Aggies have won their past four games by 7.5 points per game, to be fair, but Coach Fisher says they need to finish and learn to dominate -- and UAB's 9-1 record will have them focused.
ATS pick: Texas A&M (-17)
Score: Texas A&M 34, UAB 10
[h=2]Wisconsin Badgers at Purdue Boilermakers(-4.5; O/U 52.5)[/h]3:30 p.m. ET Saturday
Fallica: Purdue is 2-10 ATS in its 12-game losing streak to Wisconsin, and last year's eight-point loss as a 17-point underdog is the only one of the 12 losses decided by single digits. But this has been a lost season for the Badgers, and after Wisconsin laid a total egg in Minnesota last week, Purdue comes home, where it has been a much different team.
There has been a lot of talk about Jeff Brohm going to Louisville (my guess is it won't happen), and the Boilermakers will put forth a great effort and get bowl-eligible after an 0-3 start against a team really struggling at the QB position. Note that the Badgers have lost by double-digits in both of their games as dogs this year.
ATS pick: Purdue -4.5
Score: Purdue 34, Wisconsin 24
[h=2]Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Navy Midshipmen(-5.5; O/U 52.5)[/h]3:30 p.m. ET Saturday
Coughlin: Tulsa hasn't won a road game all season.
Navy hasn't won a game since Sept. 22.
Four of Tulsa's eight losses are by single digits.
I'll take Navy and say it wins by more than five.
ATS pick: Navy -5.5
Score: Navy 31, Tulsa 23
[h=2]FIU Panthers (-5.5) at Charlotte 49ers (O/U 47.5)[/h]2 p.m. ET Saturday (ESPN3)
Steele: Three weeks ago, I used Charlotte in this column, and it delivered a home upset of Southern Miss. The next week, it went into Knoxville and held Tennessee to a season-low 192 yards of total offense. Charlotte has a legitimate defense that holds foes to 97 yards per game below their season averages, which is No. 15 in the country. It is also a solid 6-3 ATS as a home dog.
Charlotte has faced the tougher schedule, and against the three common opponents for Charlotte and FIU, the 49ers are plus-147 yards per game, while FIU is plus-67 yards per game. My computer is calling for Charlotte to have a 325-300 yard edge, and I will take the underrated home underdogs here.
ATS pick: Charlotte +5.5
Score: Charlotte 23, FIU 20
[h=2]Utah Utes (-7) at Colorado Buffaloes (O/U 48)[/h]1:30 p.m. ET Saturday
Fallica: The Utes put forth a great performance last week in their first game without Tyler Huntley and Zack Moss. It will get tougher this week against a CU defense that held up really well for three quarters last week against Washington State and wasn't helped at all by turnovers on the offensive side of the ball. That was the first game all season that got away from CU, and I'd think in the home finale, with a chance to get bowl-eligible, the Buffs will resemble the team that started 5-0 more than the one that has dropped five straight. In its past five games as a road favorite, Utah is 1-4 ATS with three outright losses.
ATS pick: Colorado +7
Score: Colorado 28, Utah 27
[h=2]Pittsburgh Panthers (-7) at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (O/U 61)[/h]12 p.m. ET Saturday (ACC Network)
Coughlin: There's plenty for these two teams to play for. Wake Forest looks to go to a bowl game for the third straight season, which has been done only once in school history, while the Panthers come in knowing that a win clinches a spot in the ACC title game. It's crazy to think that Pitt could be the sixth team to represent the ACC Coastal Division in that game in the past six years.
I liked what I saw from the Demon Deacons last week, as they came from behind on the road against a nationally ranked team in NC State. The question is whether the Pitt run game will dominate the Deacs' defense. The Panthers are second in the ACC, averaging more than 259 yards on the ground per contest, and they will go against a defense that has not been good all season. But it is noteworthy that Wake Forest held NC State to 47 rushing yards last week. I'll take the home team and the points to cover.
ATS pick: Wake Forest +7
Score: Pitt 31, Wake Forest 30
Fallica: Pitt has been a road favorite once this season, when it lost 38-35 at North Carolina as a three-point favorite. The Panthers have their eyes set on a showdown with Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, but they'll have to navigate a tricky spot here against a team that can score and has improved as the season has gone on.
If Wake can do just enough against the Pitt run, it has a great shot to win outright against a defense that could struggle against Wake's passing game.
ATS Pick: Wake Forest +7
Score: Wake Forest 38, Pitt 35
[h=2]Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at No. 17 Kentucky Wildcats (-16; O/U 46.5)[/h]12 p.m. ET Saturday (SEC Network)
Steele: Kentucky's dream season has taken a turn for the worse. Just three weeks ago, the Wildcats were in the top 10 and SEC East contenders, and now they have lost three of their past five games, including two straight by 17 points. They need to get a good feeling back, and someone has to pay the price. SEC teams typically overlook CUSA teams, but this is Kentucky's home finale and a must-win game.
Middle Tennessee is 6-1 in conference and needs to beat UAB next week to have a chance at the CUSA title game (it also needs one FIU loss). The Blue Raiders have mailed it in against two SEC foes this season, losing to Vanderbilt 35-7 and Georgia 49-7. Middle Tennessee is actually minus-26 yards per game this year, and I look for an angry and motivated Kentucky to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.
ATS pick: Kentucky -16
Score: Kentucky 34, Middle Tennessee 10
[h=2]Stanford Cardinal (-2) at California Golden Bears (O/U 45)[/h]7:30 p.m. ET Saturday
Coughlin: This one just doesn't feel right. Cal has overcome a lot this year, most recently coming back to beat USC on the road last week to become bowl-eligible. But when I look back, the last time these two rivals came into the "Big Game" with the same record, Cal came out victorious in Palo Alto as a pretty big favorite. From my perspective, it might be the most painful loss of the Jim Harbaugh/David Shaw era on The Farm.
Stanford has won every meeting since, but you have to remember that Cal equaled its longest win streak in the series with five straight victories from 2002 to '06 and won seven of eight from 2002 to '09. The Bears have done whatever they needed to do on offense to get wins this season, and they even beat Washington without scoring an offensive TD. I think the home team covers.
ATS pick: Cal +2
Score: Stanford 21, Cal 20
Fallica: The Stanford offense has been predictable and unable to control the line of scrimmage all year. Now a Cal defense, which is in the top 10 nationally in defensive EPA, gets its shot at the Cardinal. Cal is 2-6 ATS in its eight-game losing streak to Stanford and lost by only three as a 13.5-point dog last season. It has been a year of snapping streaks for the Bears, who have already beaten USC and Washington. Next on the list is reclaiming the Axe for the first time since 2009.
ATS pick: Cal +2
Score: Cal 22, Stanford 21
[h=2]Arizona Wildcats at No. 8 Washington State Cougars (-9.5; O/U 62.5)[/h]10:30 p.m. ET Saturday (ESPN)
Steele: It is Pac-12 after dark, and the Cougar frenzy continues to build in Pullman. Washington might be on deck, but there is no looking ahead for a Washington State team that has playoff aspirations and just played its best game of the year on the road last week, beating Colorado 31-7. This game is at night, which will have the crowd at its loudest, and the temperatures will be in the 30s and falling that night against Arizona.
The Wildcats have been playing better of late, but they are 4-11 ATS as away underdogs the past four years, and in their two games against teams with winning records on the road this season, Arizona lost by 27 and 32 points. Washington State not only has the stronger offense, but also its defense is holding foes to 78 yards per game below their season averages, while Arizona is allowing opponents 3 yards above their averages. The Cougars also have the edge on special teams.
My average game grades have Washington State winning by 17 points, and that does not include the heightened home edge.
ATS pick: Washington State -9.5
Score: Washington State 41, Arizona 23
