Week 12: Overs and Underdogs

ofred · Nov 15, 2018

Don't want to rehash last week too much, but I lost many games late 2nd half. 8 units down even before Saturday. Fresno game seemed to portend what was coming. Went from my best week to my worst. Once again in the red. Not discouraged about this card though.
YTD: 99-85, -1.20 units

3* Memphis/ SMU- 73.5 Late in the season and these AAC games, as well as MAC contests, seem to be almost all over the number. Late season, defenses worn down, and it seems like these Non-Power 5 conferences don't recruit defenders as well as they do fast, elusive offensive players. Even the QBs often seem better than the talent around them. Offensive timing is perfected. Whatever it is, the points are lighting up the scoreboard. Neither SMU and Memphis has played much D in recent weeks(or much all season), and SMU has found both a running game and Ben Hicks has started to play QB like he was playing last year. Really thought this total would be around 80.

TimmyRules · Nov 16, 2018

Looking forward to "diamonds in the rough" FCS plays!!

filling a teaser spot with ov 67x :103631605

Thanks for posting Fred

ofred · Nov 16, 2018

Sorry, no FCS plays. Brief write-ups this week, although I still feel strong about these:

3* UCF/ Cinn.- over 61 When two very good teams get together in these lesser conferences, the OCs usually open up the playbook, offensive players play their A game, and the scores get up there. The Memphis game tonight is an exception. I don't think the UC defense will look as good playing UCF this week, and I know UCF's D has played badly most of the season. UC will have to win this game by scoring a lot, and not just with their defense.

3* Temple/ USF- over 61 Temple's offense has surprised us with how well they have been able to pass downfield. And their D has underwhelmed us. They might blow out USF which has one of the worst Ds in the conference. Temple will run easily here for long gains, while USF has a decent backup QB if Blake Barnett can't go. USF looked competitive offensively vs. UC's defense, and other than the Tulane game, have been able to put up about 25-35 per game. Good weather in Philly.

ofred · Nov 16, 2018

3* Kansas St./ Texas Tech- under 56 The Big 12 usually is a score-fest, bthe two QB here are both dreadful passers. Lots of running and short passes. K. State can focus on Duffey's running, and playing their last home game, we'll likely see their so-so defense play one of their better games. Tech also has shown they finally can play some defense. I expect FGs to be a valuable commodity here unlike most college games. Very windy in Lawrence Saturday.

3* Nebraska -1 Was an underdog, where did the points go? Michigan State has played a brutal schedule, and really has an offense that is worse than Illinois'. Nebraska will be able to score enough at home to win this game. Scott Frost should be able to game plan something here for a 3-7 point win, if not more. MSU's skill players are hard to watch.

ofred · Nov 16, 2018

2* Northwestern +2.5 I dissed them last week, and was I ever off on that assessment. They are a veteran team that plays with a lot of heart. Minnesota is a young team that just knocked off Purdue, but they are not that team. They have a letdown here against a much better defense. NW has given everybody a tough game, and those teams were much better than the Gophers.

2* Hawaii-6.5 UNLV is awful in almost every way even if they did win last week. They are in Hawaii playing a desperate team and I doubt their focus will be good. Hawaii so due for a home win and the UNLV defense, in my mind, is the worst of the Mt. West.

ofred · Nov 16, 2018

1* Kansas +34.5 Oklahoma squeezed between two big games, and Kansas is better on both sides of the ball this year. They can run the ball well enough to use the clock. Back door cover also possible. Oklahoma defense will be their downfall maybe next week, almost last week, and very likely if they get to the NC playoff.

indiana · Nov 16, 2018

Fred...…..BOL with all your action this week buddy...…..indy

METFAN · Nov 17, 2018

good luck this week Fred

ofred · Nov 17, 2018

Going with the idea that these are the "bowl games" at home for:

3* Baylor ML +100 I don't see anything that TCU does well other than having a very good head coach. Baylor has played competitively despite all of the crap they've been through. Their coach, Matt Rhule, has done an outstanding job with a team decimated by loss of recruits and other scandals. Baylor is going to be a much better team next year, and you can expect this game to be their last chance to shine.

Add 1* on Nebraska, now 4*