Monday 11/19/2018 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Requests Etc

bmd1803 · Nov 18, 2018

Chiefs at Rams 11/19/18 - NFL Picks & Predictions
by Eddie

NFL: 8:15 PM EST
Nov. 19, 2018
TV: ESPN
Latest Odds : LAR -2.5 Total 63.5

Two of the best teams in the NFL will clash on Monday night in Mexico City, when the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Los Angeles Rams. The Chiefs have won nine of their first ten games and have opened up a two-game lead over New England for homefield advantage in the AFC playoffs. On Sunday, Kansas City raced out to a 13-point halftime lead and cruised to a 26-14 home victory versus Arizona. Tyreek Hill caught seven passes for 117 yards and two touchdowns for the Chiefs.
Through ten games, Kansas City ranks 3rd in total offense and is scoring a league best 35.3 points on average. Los Angeles counters with a middle of the pack defense that is giving up 355 yards and 23.1 points per contest.
The Los Angeles Rams have just one loss through their first ten games and are tied with New Orleans in the loss column for the best record in the NFC. On Sunday, Brandin Cooks rushed for a nine-yard touchdown with 5:49 remaining to seal a 36-31 home victory versus Seattle. Dante Fowler stripped Russell Wilson to set up the touchdown for the Rams, who gained 456 yards of total offense on the afternoon.
For the season, Los Angeles ranks first in total offense and is scoring 33.5 points per game. Kansas City still has work to do on a defense that ranks 29th in yards allowed and gives up 24.0 points per contest.

Recent Betting Trends:

Chiefs are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Under is 7-1 in Chiefs last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-1 in Rams last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Bonus Betting Pick: OVER 63.5

Kansas City WR Sammy Watkins is dealing with a foot injury and expects to return for this contest. Kansas City QB Pat Mahomes and Los Angeles QB Jared Goff rank in the top two in passing yards and have combined to throw 53 touchdowns so far this season. Look for a shootout to take place in a game that will go over the total. Final Score Prediction, Los Angeles Rams win in high scoring over game 37-35.

bmd1803 · Nov 18, 2018

Marc Lawrence Incredible Stat of the Day:

Since the 2000 season, NFL games with a total of more than 57 points have gone 11-1-1 OVER.

bmd1803 · Nov 19, 2018

Monday, Nov. 19

KANSAS CITY vs. L.A. RAMS (ESPN, 8:25 p.m. ET)
Chiefs 8-2 vs. line TY, and McVay just 4-8-1 last 13 vs. spread since late LY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Chiefs, based on team trends.

bmd1803 · Nov 19, 2018

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 11

KANSAS CITY (9 - 1) vs. LA RAMS (9 - 1) - 11/19/2018, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
LA RAMS is 188-237 ATS (-72.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 188-237 ATS (-72.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 66-100 ATS (-44.0 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS is 68-101 ATS (-43.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
LA RAMS is 41-62 ATS (-27.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

bmd1803 · Nov 19, 2018

NFL

Week 11

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report

Monday. November 19

Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games
Kansas City is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games
LA Rams is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
LA Rams is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
LA Rams is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City

bmd1803 · Nov 19, 2018

NFL
Dunkel

Week 11

Kansas City @ LA Rams

Game 475-476
November 19, 2018 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
140.160
LA Rams
137.179
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 3
65
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 4
63 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(+4); Over

bmd1803 · Nov 19, 2018

Monday
Chiefs (9-1) @ Rams (9-1)— Total of 63.5 is highest-listed total in NFL history. Game was moved to LA because field in Mexico City is messed up. Kansas City won its last four games; LW was only 2nd time this year they scored less than 30 points, first time they averaged less than 7.6 yards/pass attempt. Rams are 5-0 SU at home[ they covered only one of last six games; they’ve given up 27+ points in five of last seven games. Former Chiefs’ CB Peters will be huge in this game, one way or other; he had rough day in Week 9 loss to Saints. Chiefs won last six series games; Rams’ last series win was 16-0 in ’94, last time they faced Montana. Rams practiced in Colorado all week, even after game was put back in LA. Under is 5-2 in Chiefs’ last seven games.

bmd1803 · Nov 19, 2018

Monday, Nov. 19

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5, 63.5)

The Chiefs and Rams currently has a total higher than any line, since lines have been tracked, in the history of the NFL. Vegas is expecting a shootout, or tiroteo if you like since it's in Mexico.

The total actually opened at 64 at Westgate and fell slightly to 63 1/2 to get in line with most other shops. They also opened the Rams at just -1, quickly moving up to -2 1/2 during the course of 20 hours. As of Monday night, most everywhere had the Rams at that line. However, this game is likely to see a ton of movement since it's a marquee game on a Monday night. Expect a lot of attention and perhaps the largest handle of the season for any one game.

bmd1803 · Nov 19, 2018

By: Brandon DuBreuil

RAMS-CHIEFS MOVED TO LA

The NFL made a major announcement Tuesday, moving the Rams-Chiefs game set for Monday night out of Mexico City due to poor field conditions at Azteca Stadium. The game was originally a Rams home game, so it has been moved back to L.A. Upon announcement, the line moved from Rams -2.5 to -3.5, while the total jumped from 61.5 to 63.5. Most sportsbooks have voided any bets placed before the announcement, so be sure to check with yours if you had placed a bet on an early market.

At 63.5, this is the highest total in NFL history. Prior to the announcement, the Under would’ve been a great play as footing would have been a major issue for the skill players involved. But now the game will be played at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum where the Rams are averaging 34.4 points per game. As for the Chiefs? Well, they’re tops in the NFL in road scoring at 36.8 points per game. At 63.5, backing the Over might sound daunting but there have been 14 instances of totals of 58 or more in the history of the NFL and 11 of those went Over. Jump on the Over before it gets higher and get ready for some fireworks on Monday Night Football.

bmd1803 · Nov 19, 2018

Kansas City Chiefs (+2½) at Los Angeles Rams (-2½)

After a slew of mediocre Monday night match-ups, we finally get an absolute beauty in Week 11. The Chiefs have the best record in the AFC, while the Rams are right up there in the NFC. Both of these teams are dynamic on the offensive side of the football, which may explain why the point total has been set at over 60 points for this one. We are in for a good old-fashioned slugfest here, as well as a game that may come down to who gets the ball last.

bmd1803 · Nov 19, 2018

Kansas City at L.A. Rams: It’s rare to see NFL totals this high (63 ½) but based on what we’ve seen from the Chiefs (35.3 PPG) and Rams (33.5 PPG) offensively, it’s hard to make a case for the ‘under’ here plus neither team is great defensively. Bettors daring to take the low side could make a case that the Rams have been suspect against the run recently and the Chiefs may follow the blueprint and try to grind out a win. I’m expecting both teams to get at least five scores and the ratio of touchdowns to field goals will likely decide this result. Kansas City hasn’t settled (41 TDs, 16 FGs) for three points often but we have seen Los Angeles (36 TDs, 21 FGs) stall a little bit more offensively. The Chiefs are averaging 32 PPG in two matchups vs. the NFC this season while the Rams have posted 30.3 PPG in three wins against the AFC West. For what it’s worth, the ‘under’ is 3-0 in the past three encounters in this limited non-conference series.

bmd1803 · Nov 19, 2018

MNF - Chiefs at Rams
Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK

The Chiefs (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS) failed to cover the spread for only the second time this season as Kansas City held off Arizona at Arrowhead Stadium, 26-14 as 16 ½-point favorites. The Cardinals gave everything the Chiefs could handle as Arizona trailed Kansas City by six points heading into the fourth quarter. Spencer Ware’s three-yard touchdown run early in the fourth pushed the Chiefs to a 12-point lead, but Kansas City couldn’t produce any more offense in final few possessions to result in the non-cover.

Patrick Mahomes threw for fewer than 300 yards for only the second time this season and the first time since Week 1 as the Chiefs’ quarterback posted 249 yards and two touchdown passes. Mahomes didn’t throw an interception for the first time since Week 4, while hooking up with Tyreek Hill on both touchdown tosses. Hill finished with 117 yards on seven catches, as Kansas City won its eighth consecutive regular season game at Arrowhead Stadium.

The Rams (9-1 SU, 4-6 ATS) rebounded from its only loss of the season by holding off the Seahawks, 36-31 at the L.A. Coliseum. Los Angeles failed to cover against Seattle for the second time this season, as the Rams were laying 10 points last Sunday. The Rams had an opportunity to cash in spite of falling behind 14-7 early as L.A. stormed back to lead 36-24 in the fourth quarter on a Brandin Cooks nine-yard touchdown run.

The Seahawks picked up the cover on a late Russell Wilson touchdown pass, dropping the Rams to 1-6 ATS in the last seven games. Quarterback Jared Goff put together a solid afternoon by throwing for 318 yards and two touchdowns, while MVP candidate Todd Gurley rushed for 120 yards and a touchdown for the Rams. The major concern was Seattle rushing for 273 yards on the Rams’ defense, which had allowed 105 yards on the ground through the first nine games.

MOVING FROM MEXICO

This showdown was originally supposed to take place at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, but the game was moved to the Coliseum due to poor field conditions. Since the Rams are listed as the home team, the game shifted back to Los Angeles according to NFL rules which state if there are any issues at a stadium in international contests, it will be moved to the site of the home team.

ROAD-FIELD ADVANTAGE

Who says the Chiefs only thrive at Arrowhead Stadium? Andy Reid’s squad has covered in all five games away from Kansas City this season, while winning four times. The only loss came in the Week 6 shootout loss at New England, 43-40, but the Chiefs cashed as 3 ½-point underdogs. This is the fourth time this season that Kansas City will be listed as an underdog, as the Chiefs have already won outright against the Chargers and Steelers on the highway.

SERIES HISTORY

The Chiefs have captured each of the last three meetings with the Rams as this is the first matchup between the teams since the team moved from St. Louis to Los Angeles. When these teams were neighbors in Missouri, the Chiefs won six matchups from 1997 through 2014, as Kansas City blew out the Rams in the most recent meeting four seasons ago, 34-7. The Rams last beat the Chiefs in 1994 at Arrowhead Stadium, 16-0 as 14 ½-point underdogs.

MONDAY NIGHT LIGHTS

Kansas City has won three straight Monday night contests since the start of 2017, including a 27-23 victory at Denver in Week 4 as 3 ½-point favorites. Los Angeles is making its second appearance on Monday night football this season after routing Oakland in the opener, 33-13 as a 6 ½-point favorite. The Rams are hosting their first Monday night game since moving to L.A., while the franchise is playing at home on a Monday for the first time since hosting the 49ers in St. Louis in 2014.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

NFL expert Joe Nelson gives his take on this matchup, first on the impact of the dynamic offenses, “The young quarterbacks have both emerged as serious MVP candidates with Mahomes featuring 31 touchdown passes and the 2nd best quarterback rating in the league in his first season as a starter. Goff has only 16 fewer passing yards through 10 games and a higher completion percentage with one less interception. Gurley and Kareem Hunt are both in the top four in rushing on the season with Gurley only 12 yards short of 1,000 already this season while Hill and Cooks have been among the league’s top receivers.”

From a totals perspective, this sky-high number may be hard to eclipse, but it’s not a crazy notion that the OVER can cash according to Nelson, “Monday’s game will feature perhaps the highest total in NFL history priced at 63. Since 1980, only two NFL games have closed with a total of 60 or higher with the last instance being the Saints playoff win over the Lions, 45-28 in January of 2012 with a total of 60. A Rams/49ers game in 2000 featured a total of 62, staying just UNDER in a 34-24 Rams win at Candlestick. Since 2000, 12 games have closed with a total of 58 or higher with the OVER hitting in 10 of those 12 games.

bmd1803 · Nov 19, 2018

GAME PROPS – According to Westgate Superbook

Total Gross Passing Yards – Patrick Mahomes
OVER 325 ½ (-110)
UNDER 325 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Patrick Mahomes
OVER 2 ½ (-150)
UNDER 2 ½ (+130)

Total Rushing Yards – Kareem Hunt
OVER 85 ½ (-110)
UNDER 85 ½ (-110)

Total Receiving Yards – Tyreek Hill
OVER 90 ½ (-110)
UNDER 90 ½ (-110)

Total Receiving Yards – Travis Kelce
OVER 87 ½ (-110)
UNDER 87 ½ (-110)

Total Gross Passing Yards – Jared Goff
OVER 320 ½ (-110)
UNDER 320 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Jared Goff
OVER 2 ½ (-110)
UNDER 2 ½ (-110)

Total Rushing Yards – Todd Gurley
OVER 108 ½ (-110)
UNDER 108 ½ (-110)

Total Receiving Yards – Brandin Cooks
OVER 95 ½ (-110)
UNDER 95 ½ (-110)

Total Receiving Yards – Robert Woods
OVER 95 ½ (-110)
UNDER 95 ½ (-110)

bmd1803 · Nov 19, 2018

LINE MOVEMENT

When the line first opened last Sunday, the Rams were listed as one-point favorites assuming the game was going to be played in Mexico City. Now that the contest has moved to Los Angeles, the Rams have been vaulted to a three-point favorite and are even at 3 ½ at several books. The total is by far the highest in the NFL this season at 63 as the Rams and Chiefs have each eclipsed this number four times in 2018.

bmd1803 · Nov 19, 2018

(475) KANSAS CITY @ (476) LA RAMS | 11/19/2018 - 8:15 PM
Play ONKANSAS CITY against the spread in Road games after 2 or more consecutive wins
The record is 8 Wins and 0 Losses for the last three seasons (+8.00 units)

bmd1803 · Nov 19, 2018

(475) KANSAS CITY @ (476) LA RAMS | 11/19/2018 - 8:15 PM
Play ONKANSAS CITY in the first half in All games in games played on a grass field
The record is 17 Wins and 5 Losses for the last two seasons (+11.50 units)

bmd1803 · Nov 19, 2018

Preview: Chiefs at Rams

The Los Angeles Rams saw their perfect record come to an end two weeks ago in New Orleans in a marquee showdown between the two highest-scoring teams in the NFC. Another high-octane matchup is on desk for the Rams, who will face a test against the best team in the AFC when quarterback Pat Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs pay them a visit on Monday night.

The teams enter Monday's game - initially scheduled to be played in Mexico City - with identical 9-1 records, marking only the fifth time since the 1970 merger that two clubs squared off in Week 11 with fewer than two losses each. "It's fun if you're watching as a football fan; it's not fun when you're watching it getting ready to play them," Los Angeles coach Sean McVay told reporters of facing Kansas City, which is averaging 35.3 points and features the league's passing yards leader in Mahomes. Chiefs coach Andy Reid understands the challenge of trying to match up with the Rams, who have league-leading rusher Todd Gurley and quarterback Jared Goff - who is second to Mahomes in passing yards. "You have to be disciplined," Reid told reporters. "They're a disciplined offense, so you have to be disciplined from a defensive standpoint. Then practice that way and then you go play."

TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Rams -3.5. O/U: 63

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (9-1): Mahomes had his streak of eight straight 300-yard performances halted in last week's 26-14 win over Arizona, but he threw a pair of scoring passes to give him the franchise's single-season record of 31 with only seven interceptions. Mahomes has a bevy of weapons at his disposal that includes game-breaking wide receiver Tyreek Hill (nine touchdowns) and tight end Travis Kelce, who leads the team with 57 catches to go along with six scores. Running back Kareem Hunt also is a dangerous two-way threat with 13 total TDs on 754 yards rushing and 23 receptions. Kansas City ranks 29th overall in defense with an average of 410.7 yards allowed but is tied for second in the league in sacks with 31.

ABOUT THE RAMS (9-1): Gurley, the NFL's runaway leader in both rushing and touchdowns, needs only 12 yards to reach 1,000 and has scored 17 times - two shy of his total from last year. Goff has 22 scoring passes versus six interceptions and has recorded four straight games with a passer rating of at least 111.0. Cooper Kupp had a team-high six touchdown receptions before he was lost for the season with a torn ACL, but Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks have 55 and 51 catches, respectively, and three scores apiece. Los Angeles features the league's sacks leader in star defensive tackle Aaron Donald (12.5) and yields only 233.1 passing yards per game, although the Saints put up 346 on them.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Mahomes has thrown 18 TD passes and three interceptions for a passer rating of 125.9 in five road games this season.

2. Goff has amassed 1,015 passing yards with seven scores and one interception in his last three home contests.

3. Gurley and Hunt are the only two running backs with more than 2,000 rushing yards since the start of the 2017 campaign.

PREDICTION: Chiefs 34, Rams 33

bmd1803 · Nov 19, 2018

ATS Trends
Kansas City

Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Chiefs are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday games.
Chiefs are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
Chiefs are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games on grass.
Chiefs are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win.
Chiefs are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 road games.
Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Chiefs are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss.
Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 11.
Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in November.

L.A. Rams

Rams are 16-40-1 ATS in their last 57 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Rams are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Rams are 8-23-1 ATS in their last 32 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Rams are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Monday games.
Rams are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games.
Rams are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Rams are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Rams are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 11.
Rams are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Rams are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

OU Trends
Kansas City

Under is 7-1 in Chiefs last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 road games.
Under is 17-4 in Chiefs last 21 games in Week 11.
Over is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 Monday games.
Under is 4-1-1 in Chiefs last 6 games on grass.
Over is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 20-8-1 in Chiefs last 29 games in November.

L.A. Rams

Under is 5-0 in Rams last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games in Week 11.
Over is 7-1 in Rams last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 6-1 in Rams last 7 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Rams last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 10-4 in Rams last 14 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Rams last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 7-3 in Rams last 10 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 11-5 in Rams last 16 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 21-10 in Rams last 31 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Head to Head

Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

bmd1803 · Nov 19, 2018

Steve Janus
Nov 19 '18, 11:00 AM in 1h
NCAA-B | Akron vs Clemson
Play on: Akron +14 -110 at Bovada

bmd1803 · Nov 19, 2018

Info Plays
Nov 19 '18, 2:30 PM in 4h
NCAA-B | Auburn vs Xavier
Play on: Xavier +10 -110 at 5Dimes

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