[h=1]Best bets for Chiefs-Rams[/h]
Warren Sharp & Preston Johnson
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Where does the betting value lie in Monday's prime-time matchup between the Chiefs and Rams? Warren Sharp and Preston Johnson provide their analysis to help you place your bets.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday morning.
[h=3]Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams (-3)[/h]Total: 63.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 81 percent picked KC
Sharp: The most anticipated game of the year pits the NFL's No. 1 and No. 2 overall teams in total efficiency. Jared Goff won't have his most reliable weapon in WR Cooper Kupp, and no QB-WR combo has had a higher passer rating this season. Fortunately, the Rams are extremely deep and should have plenty of success when passing to Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods.
While the Chiefs defense ranks No. 25 overall, it is 12th against the pass (but that ranking has come against the NFL's seventh-easiest schedule of passing offenses). No passing offense is near the level of the Rams, and even if they miss Kupp, they should have success on the ground. The Chiefs have the NFL's worst run defense, and Los Angeles' rushing offense is the best in the NFL.
On the other side of the ball, <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">Kansas City's offense also has big edges. The Rams defense ranks slightly better, but not by much. While the Chiefs defense allows the third-highest rate of explosive rushes, which has come against the fourth-best slate explosive-run offenses. The Los Angeles defense has allowed the fourth-highest rate of explosive rushes against worse rush offenses. Look for Kareem Hunt to see plenty of opportunities for big plays.
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The biggest problem when facing the Rams defense is avoiding their pass-rush pressure (tops in the NFL), and the Chiefs offensive line is dealing with multiple injuries.
Lean: Chiefs +3.5
Johnson: This matchup is one of the four most likely scenarios to represent the NFC and AFC in the Super Bowl, and these two teams are tied for the league lead in gaining 6.9 yards per play (along with the Chargers). The two leading candidates for the MVP award are Todd Gurley and Patrick Mahomes. The total line at 63.5 points is the highest in the history of the NFL. What is there not to like here?
The most intriguing part of this particular matchup to me is that neither team has a strength or weakness much different than its counterpart. Both are historically elite through the air and dominant in the run game. Both teams are atrocious defending the run (30th and 31st) and middle-of-the-pack against the pass. Sean McVay is an innovative young coach. Andy Reid is still an innovative coach and has adapted as well as anybody over the years.
My projection with the game now being played in Los Angeles (previously Mexico City) is Rams -4.6 with a total of 61.2. I anticipate the total dropping a little, but there isn't enough of a discrepancy in the market and my number to warrant a bet. The side has come down around the market from Rams -3.5 to -3, however, which is somewhat surprising to me considering this was Rams -2.5 when it was expected to be played in Mexico City. Still, Rams -3 is my buy point -- so if you have one available it's worth a bet.
Pick: Rams at -3 or better
[h=2]Prob bet[/h]Kareem Hunt rushing yards over (-110) or under (-110) 84.5 rushing yards
Hunt has been terrific this season, averaging 4.5 yards per rush and handling a hefty 16.7 carries per game. Still, he's averaging 75.4 rushing yards per game and has cleared 84 yards in only four of 10 games. In fact, he barely cleared 84 yards in three other games (86, 87, 91), with his biggest game a 121-yard effort at Denver.
The Rams have struggled against the run, but this could be a rare game where Kansas City is playing from behind. The Chiefs are the game-script-adjusted No. 3 pass-heaviest offense in the NFL, but they also sport the lowest "expected" pass rate because they have been ahead or tied on a league-high 83 percent of offensive snaps. A closer game or deficit will mean more pass attempts and fewer carries for Hunt. Expect him to be closer to 70 rushing yards in this one.
The pick: Under (-110)
Warren Sharp & Preston Johnson
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Where does the betting value lie in Monday's prime-time matchup between the Chiefs and Rams? Warren Sharp and Preston Johnson provide their analysis to help you place your bets.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday morning.
PickCenter public consensus pick: 81 percent picked KC
Sharp: The most anticipated game of the year pits the NFL's No. 1 and No. 2 overall teams in total efficiency. Jared Goff won't have his most reliable weapon in WR Cooper Kupp, and no QB-WR combo has had a higher passer rating this season. Fortunately, the Rams are extremely deep and should have plenty of success when passing to Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods.
While the Chiefs defense ranks No. 25 overall, it is 12th against the pass (but that ranking has come against the NFL's seventh-easiest schedule of passing offenses). No passing offense is near the level of the Rams, and even if they miss Kupp, they should have success on the ground. The Chiefs have the NFL's worst run defense, and Los Angeles' rushing offense is the best in the NFL.
On the other side of the ball, <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">Kansas City's offense also has big edges. The Rams defense ranks slightly better, but not by much. While the Chiefs defense allows the third-highest rate of explosive rushes, which has come against the fourth-best slate explosive-run offenses. The Los Angeles defense has allowed the fourth-highest rate of explosive rushes against worse rush offenses. Look for Kareem Hunt to see plenty of opportunities for big plays.
</offer>
The biggest problem when facing the Rams defense is avoiding their pass-rush pressure (tops in the NFL), and the Chiefs offensive line is dealing with multiple injuries.
Lean: Chiefs +3.5
Johnson: This matchup is one of the four most likely scenarios to represent the NFC and AFC in the Super Bowl, and these two teams are tied for the league lead in gaining 6.9 yards per play (along with the Chargers). The two leading candidates for the MVP award are Todd Gurley and Patrick Mahomes. The total line at 63.5 points is the highest in the history of the NFL. What is there not to like here?
The most intriguing part of this particular matchup to me is that neither team has a strength or weakness much different than its counterpart. Both are historically elite through the air and dominant in the run game. Both teams are atrocious defending the run (30th and 31st) and middle-of-the-pack against the pass. Sean McVay is an innovative young coach. Andy Reid is still an innovative coach and has adapted as well as anybody over the years.
My projection with the game now being played in Los Angeles (previously Mexico City) is Rams -4.6 with a total of 61.2. I anticipate the total dropping a little, but there isn't enough of a discrepancy in the market and my number to warrant a bet. The side has come down around the market from Rams -3.5 to -3, however, which is somewhat surprising to me considering this was Rams -2.5 when it was expected to be played in Mexico City. Still, Rams -3 is my buy point -- so if you have one available it's worth a bet.
Pick: Rams at -3 or better
[h=2]Prob bet[/h]Kareem Hunt rushing yards over (-110) or under (-110) 84.5 rushing yards
Hunt has been terrific this season, averaging 4.5 yards per rush and handling a hefty 16.7 carries per game. Still, he's averaging 75.4 rushing yards per game and has cleared 84 yards in only four of 10 games. In fact, he barely cleared 84 yards in three other games (86, 87, 91), with his biggest game a 121-yard effort at Denver.
The Rams have struggled against the run, but this could be a rare game where Kansas City is playing from behind. The Chiefs are the game-script-adjusted No. 3 pass-heaviest offense in the NFL, but they also sport the lowest "expected" pass rate because they have been ahead or tied on a league-high 83 percent of offensive snaps. A closer game or deficit will mean more pass attempts and fewer carries for Hunt. Expect him to be closer to 70 rushing yards in this one.
The pick: Under (-110)
