Thursday 11/22/2018 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Requests Etc

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Marc Lawrence Incredible Stat of the Day:

Since the 2000 season, NFL games with a total of more than 57 points have gone 11-1-1 OVER.

12-1-1 Over after MNF Over 64.
 

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The Bears look to carve up the Lions on Thanksgiving Day in Motown. Chicago has covered four in a row inside the division, and they're 6-1 ATS in the past seven against teams with a losing record. They're also 9-3-1 ATS in the past 13 in the month of November. However, Chicago is a dismal 1-6 ATS in their past seven appearances on Thursday. The Lions have posted a 5-2 ATS mark across their past seven appearances on Thursday. The Bears are 3-1-1 ATS in the past five meetings, including a 34-22 win against the Lions on Nov. 11 in Chitown. However, the Bears are just 2-6 ATS in their past eight trips to Detroit.
 

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The Falcons limp into the dome just 2-6 ATS in the past eight overall and 1-4 ATS in their past five road outings. The Saints have covered eight in a row, they're 14-6 ATS in the past 20 inside the division and they're 11-5 ATS in the past 16 against losing squads. Atlanta is a dismal 2-5 ATS in the past seven trips to the Crescent City, too.
 

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Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-12)

New Orleans is both the immovable object and the unstoppable force, a winner of nine in a row SU and eight consecutive ATS. In Week 11, the Saints (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS) steamrolled defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia 48-7 as 7-point home favorites.

Like New Orleans, Atlanta was in the playoffs last season, but Dan Quinn’s troops are going to need a big turnaround to get back there this season. The Falcons (4-6 SU, 3-7 ATS) rallied to tie Dallas at 19 late in the fourth quarter, but lost on a last-second field goal 22-19 as 3.5-point home faves in Week 11.

“We opened the Saints -12, and we have already seen the number get pushed up to -13,” Murray said of very early action on this 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff Thanksgiving night. “The public will be hammering the Saints in this game. If both favorites win in the early games, there will be a ton of parlay liability to New Orleans on Thanksgiving night, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this number go even higher.”

Later Sunday evening, the line was down a tick to 12.5.
 

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Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)

Dallas will play its traditional home game on Thanksgiving in a 4:30 p.m. ET start, in pursuit of its third straight victory. The Cowboys (5-5 SU and ATS) got the aforementioned last-second field goal to top Atlanta 22-19 as 3.5-point road underdogs in Week 11.

Washington remains in first place in the NFC East, but is hardly comfortable in that spot. The Redskins (6-4 SU, 7-3 ATS) have lost two of their last three, including a 23-21 Week 11 setback to Houston as 3-point home pups.

“There has been some early money on the Redskins +7.5, but we aren’t too worried about it, as we expect there to be a ton of support for the Cowboys in this game,” Murray said. “The book will need Washington by kickoff.”

In fact, less than an hour after posting this game Sunday evening, The SuperBook moved Dallas to -8.
 

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It's obvious to anyone even slightly involved in NFL betting that the Saints have been the hottest team in the league for weeks now, so it's not like I'm uncovering anything interesting there. However, it's becoming clear that the oddsmakers are sick of getting beaten by the Saints each and every week as it's been a couple of weeks now where their point spread lines have spiked.

After starting their 8-0 ATS run with an 43-37 OT win in Atlanta as +1.5 underdogs, the Saints spent the next five weeks being priced in the +3 to -5.5 range. It was only their MNF home game against Washington – where Drew Brees broke the passing yards record – that had the Saints lined as more than basically a FG favorite, and at the time those lines were loaded with value. They were +2.5 in a game @ Baltimore (24-23 win), -2.5 @ Minnesota the following week (30-20 win) and closed at +1.5 at home against the Rams a few weeks ago (45-35 win). It was that win over the Rams that sparked a dramatic shift into how the Saints started to get priced though, and in the two games since it still hasn't mattered.

After beating LA, the Saints – in a natural letdown spot off that huge win – were all of a sudden laying six points on the road against a Bengals team that had two weeks to prepare. Granted, the Bengals defense has been atrocious for the better part of six weeks now and Brees and company tore them to shreds in the 51-14 win. Result aside, to have New Orleans laying -6 on the road after they hadn't been bigger than -3.5 road favorites all year (@ NY Giants) was quite the shift and it still proved to be nowhere near enough.

Then this past week, New Orleans was bet up all the way to -9 at home against the struggling defending champs from Philly, and while Philly did receive some support late to close that line at -7, the game was decided very early in another blowout win for New Orleans (48-7). To see the Eagles get the support they did late to push that line down to a TD suggests that many are starting to see value in fading New Orleans at these inflated prices, yet so far, it still hasn't mattered.

And now we get the cycle going back to where it began, with a huge NFC South division game against the Falcons. The Saints are now on a short week in hosting Atlanta on TNF on Thanksgiving and have been pegged as a -13 favorite currently. It's getting to the point that tf the Saints were a traditional stock on Wall Street, there would be plenty of talk about them being in “bubble” territory and days away from bursting at these extreme valuations. But this is football and the eye test basically tells everyone it's impossible to step in front of New Orleans now and the oddsmakers are playing off that perception with these huge lines.

After all, this is an Atlanta team that took the Saints to OT way back at the beginning of this run and at 4-6 SU entering Week 12 are left fighting for their season and playoff possibilities this week. Atlanta's defense has been ravaged by injuries for most of the year, but offensively they won't be scared to go toe-to-toe with New Orleans on Thursday and let the chips fall where they may.

So before you do settle in to watch what should be a great nightcap to your Thanksgiving festivities on Thursday, you've got to ask yourself, do you believe this is a fair line to be backing New Orleans at?
 

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Trends for Detroit-Chicago

-- Detroit saw its four-game winning streak on Thanksgiving Day end last season with a 30-23 loss to Minnesota.

-- Prior to the 4-0 run, the Lions had lost nine straight games on Thanksgiving between 2004 and 2012.

-- Detroit has seen the 'over' go 8-3 in its last 11 games played on Thanksgiving Day.

-- Chicago played at Detroit on the holiday in the 2014 season and it was doubled-up by the Lions, 34-17.

-- The Bears have gone 3-7 all-time in the Thanksgiving Day afternoon matchups, which includes a 3-5 record versus the Lions and 0-2 against the Cowboys.
 

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Trends for Dallas-Washington

-- Dallas owns an all-time 30-19-1 record on Thanksgiving Day.

-- The Cowboys have dropped three of their last four games on the holiday, which includes a 28-6 setback to the L.A. Chargers last season. All three of the losses came by double digits.

-- Dallas has allowed 30.3 points per game in its last six holiday matchups.

-- Five of the last eight wins by Dallas on Thanksgiving Day have come by double-digits.

-- Washington owns a 4-7 all-time record on the holiday and that includes a 31-26 loss to Dallas in the 2016 matchup.

-- The last three games between the pair on Thanksgiving have watched them combine for 57, 69 and 47 points. The 'over' cashed easily in all three games.
 

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Thanksgiving History - Detroit
Year Matchup
2017 Minnesota 30 Detroit 23
2016 Detroit 16 Minnesota 13
2015 Detroit 45 Philadelphia 14
2014 Detroit 34 Chicago 17
2013 Detroit 40 Green Bay 10
2012 Houston 34 Detroit 31 (OT)
2011 Green Bay 27 Detroit 15
2010 New England 45 Detroit 24
2009 Green Bay 34 Detroit 12
2008 Tennessee 47 Detroit 10
2007 Green Bay 37 Detroit 26
2006 Miami 27 Detroit 10
2005 Atlanta 27 Detroit 7
2004 Indianapolis 41 Detroit 9
2003 Detroit 22 Green Bay 14
2002 New England 20 Detroit 12
2001 Green Bay 29 Detroit 27
2000 Detroit 34 New England 9
1999 Detroit 21 Chicago 17
1998 Detroit 19 Pittsburgh 16 (OT)
1997 Detroit 55 Chicago 20
1996 Kansas City 28 Detroit 24
1995 Detroit 44 Minnesota 38
1994 Detroit 35 Buffalo 21
1993 Chicago 10 Detroit 6
1992 Houston 24 Detroit 21
1991 Detroit 16 Chicago 6
1990 Detroit 40 Denver 27
1989 Detroit 13 Cleveland 10
1988 Minnesota 23 Detroit 0
1987 Kansas City 27 Detroit 20
1986 Green Bay 44 Detroit 40
1985 Detroit 31 N.Y. Jets 20
1984 Detroit 31 Green Bay 28
1983 Detroit 45 Pittsburgh 3
1982 N.Y. Giants 13 Detroit 6
1981 Detroit 27 Kansas City 10
1980 Chicago 23 Detroit 17 (OT)
1979 Detroit 20 Chicago 0
1978 Detroit 17 Denver 14
1977 Chicago 31 Detroit 14
1976 Detroit 27 Buffalo 14
1975 L.A. 20 Detroit 0
1974 Denver 31 Detroit 27
1973 Washington 20 Detroit 0
1972 Detroit 37 N.Y. Jets 20
1971 Detroit 32 Kansas City 21
1970 Detroit 28 Oakland 14
1969 Minnesota 27 Detroit 0
1968 Philadelphia 12 Detroit 0
1967 L.A. Rams 31 Detroit 7
 

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Thanksgiving History - Dallas
Year Matchup
2017 Los Angeles 28 Dallas 6
2016 Washington 26 Dallas 31
2015 Carolina 33 Dallas 14
2014 Philadelphia 33 Dallas 10
2013 Dallas 31 Oakland 24
2012 Washington 38 Dallas 31
2011 Dallas 20 Miami 19
2010 New Orleans 30 Dallas 27
2009 Dallas 24 Oakland 7
2008 Dallas 34 Seattle 9
2007 Dallas 34 N.Y. Jets 3
2006 Dallas 38 Tampa Bay 10
2005 Denver 24 Dallas 21 (OT)
2004 Dallas 21 Chicago 7
2003 Miami 40 Dallas 21
2002 Dallas 27 Washington 20
2001 Denver 26 Dallas 24
2000 Minnesota 27 Dallas 15
1999 Dallas 20 Miami 0
1998 Minnesota 46 Dallas 36
1997 Tennessee 27 Dallas 14
1996 Dallas 21 Washington 10
1995 Dallas 24 Kansas City 12
1994 Dallas 42 Green Bay 31
1993 Miami 16 Dallas 14
1992 Dallas 30 N.Y. Giants 3
1991 Dallas 20 Pittsburgh 10
1990 Dallas 27 Washington 17
1989 Philadelphia 27 Dallas 0
1988 Houston 25 Dallas 17
1987 Minnesota 44 Dallas 38 (OT)
1986 Seattle 31 Dallas 14
1985 Dallas 35 St. Louis 17
1984 Dallas 20 New England 17
1983 Dallas 35 St. Louis 17
1982 Dallas 31 Cleveland 14
1981 Dallas 10 Chicago 9
1980 Dallas 51 Seattle 7
1979 Houston 30 Dallas 24
1978 Dallas 37 Washington 10
1976 Dallas 19 St. Louis 14
1974 Dallas 24 Washington 23
1973 Miami 14 Dallas 7
1972 San Francisco 31 Dallas 10
1971 Dallas 28 Los Angeles 21
1970 Dallas 16 Green Bay 3
1969 Dallas 24 San Francisco 24
1968 Dallas 29 Washington 20
1967 Dallas 46 St. Louis 21
 

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NFL
Long Sheet

Week 12

Thursday. November 22

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CHICAGO (7 - 3) at DETROIT (4 - 6) - 11/22/2018, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 7-23 ATS (-18.3 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 51-78 ATS (-34.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in home games revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
DETROIT is 140-176 ATS (-53.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DETROIT is 48-70 ATS (-29.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 3-2 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (6 - 4) at DALLAS (5 - 5) - 11/22/2018, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 4-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (4 - 6) at NEW ORLEANS (9 - 1) - 11/22/2018, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 34-53 ATS (-24.3 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 29-48 ATS (-23.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


 

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NFL

Week 12

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Trend Report
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Thursday. November 22

Chicago Bears
Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games
Chicago is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games on the road
Chicago is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing Detroit
Chicago is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Chicago is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit Lions
Detroit is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Detroit is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Detroit is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
Detroit is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
Detroit is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing Chicago
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing at home against Chicago


Washington Redskins
Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Washington's last 14 games
Washington is 15-8 ATS in its last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games on the road
Washington is 16-8 ATS in its last 24 games when playing Dallas
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Dallas
Washington is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Washington is 5-17 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Dallas's last 19 games
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games at home
Dallas is 8-16 ATS in its last 24 games when playing Washington
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing Washington
Dallas is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against Washington
Dallas is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing at home against Washington


Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 9 games
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 8 games on the road
Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New Orleans
Atlanta is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing New Orleans
Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Atlanta is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New Orleans's last 10 games at home
New Orleans is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
New Orleans is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing Atlanta
New Orleans is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta
New Orleans is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Atlanta
 

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Thursday, Nov. 22

Chicago Bears (-4, 45) at Detroit Lions

These teams just met on Nov. 11 in Chicago with the Bears covering a seven-point number at home, 34-22. The Bears have covered four in a row heading into this battle, but QB Mitch Trubisky (shoulder) is reportedly dealing with an injury, so that's something to watch heading into Thursday's game. The total has been on the move down, going from 46 to 45 in the matter of hours at Atlantis.
 

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Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5, 40.5)

The Redskins lost QB Alex Smith to a gruesome leg injury, as he snapped his fibula and tibia. Not only is he out for the season, but it's no certainty he'll be back. The line opened at -7 at Jerry's Nugget, moving up to -7.5. That seems to be the sweet spot right now, as Southpoint and Stratosphere opened the game at -8, and dropped it to -7.5.
 

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Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-13.5, 59.5)

This game opened and has stayed -13 at most shop, with Westgate SuperBook opening the game at -12, before it quickly moved up to -13. The total is on the move, too, going from 59 to 60 according to CG Technology. It's likely to eclipse the 60-point barrier, perhaps the third time in NFL history a line closed over 60. It would also be the second time in two weeks this season. Again, it's a new day, and this isn't your grandfather's NFL.
 

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Reports out of Detroit on Monday are that running back Kerryon Johnson is out for Thursday’s Thanksgiving game against Chicago. Johnson could miss multiple games after suffering a sprained knee on Sunday against Carolina, although the injury isn’t thought to be season-ending. The Lions will go with some combination of LeGarrette Blount, Theo Riddick, and Zach Zenner at running back when they host the Bears.

Chicago features the top overall defense in DVOA and the second best rushing defense using the same metric, so we’re staying far away from Blount and Zenner. But Riddick has come on as of late in his pass-catching role, getting 52 percent of the snaps since he returned from injury in Week 9 and has hauled in five, six, and seven catches over that time frame. Johnson has been averaging 42.6 snaps per game over his past five and Riddick should see his fair share of those, especially as a four-point home underdog. We’re taking the Over 4.5 on his receptions total for Thursday.
 

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Preview: Bears at Lions


Mitchell Trubisky has been providing plenty of correct answers for the Chicago Bears this season, but the availability of the quarterback is now in question for their Thanksgiving Day game against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field on Thursday. Trubisky did not practice on Tuesday, two days removed after injuring his throwing shoulder on a late hit in a 25-20 win over Minnesota.

"I'm saying cautiously optimistic but I can't make any promises," Chicago coach Matt Nagy said of Trubisky's potential involvement against Detroit. "I hope he does. But it's a day-to-day thing for us, like I said. He wants to play. I know that. And for us, we got to make sure in these situations that we're doing the right thing." Trubisky threw for a career-high 355 yards with three passing touchdowns to go along with a rushing score in the Bears' 34-22 win over the Lions on Nov. 11. While Chicago has won four straight to ascend to the top of the NFC North, the Lions snapped a three-game skid by holding on for a 20-19 victory over Carolina on Sunday. Kerryon Johnson scored in his second straight game and rushed for 87 yards against the Panthers before sustaining a knee injury that has prevented the promising rookie from practicing this week.

TV: 12:30 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Bears -3.5. O/U: 44.5

ABOUT THE BEARS (7-3): Veteran backup Chase Daniel would get the nod if Trubisky is sidelined, with the former having spent time under Nagy in Kansas City before shuffling over to Chicago. "I haven't gotten any reps with the first team this year, but it's the same offense that I was in for five years, so for me, it's mostly the same plays," said the 32-year-old Daniel, who hasn't started an NFL game since the 2014 season. Allen Robinson reeled in six catches for 133 yards and two touchdowns versus the Vikings while fellow wideout Anthony Miller has found the end zone in back-to-back contests. Jordan Howard, however, was limited to just 21 yards on 11 carries against the Lions' 24th-ranked rush defense (125.0 yards per game).

ABOUT THE LIONS (4-6): Coach Matt Patricia likely will use a running back-by-committee approach in place of Johnson, with the bruising LeGarrette Blount, Theo Riddick and Zach Zenner expected to handle specific tasks out of the backfield. "It's not cookie-cutter. Football is not that way," Patricia said. "When you have a different player that is in and in the same position, it doesn't mean they can do the same thing. So you have to be able to adjust with that and do a good job of handling that whatever the situation is, whoever those guys are." Matthew Stafford has thrown for 220 yards for fewer in two of his last three outings and faces a Bears defense that leads the NFL with 18 interceptions, although wide receiver Kenny Golladay set a season high in catches (eight) for 113 yards versus the Panthers last week.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Detroit WR Marvin Jones Jr., who did not practice on Tuesday, is trending toward missing his second straight game with a knee injury.

2. Bears LB Khalil Mack returned from a month's absence due to an ankle injury and collected two of his team-leading eight sacks against the Lions.

3. Detroit CB Darius Slay, who missed this month's meeting with Chicago, had a pair of interceptions in his last encounter with the club on Dec. 16.

PREDICTION: Bears 20, Lions 19
 

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ATS Trends
Chicago

Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC North.
Bears are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC.
Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Bears are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games in November.
Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.

Detroit

Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Lions are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games in November.
Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC.
Lions are 4-10 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Lions are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 12.
Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

OU Trends
Chicago

Over is 4-0 in Bears last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 5-0 in Bears last 5 games following a straight up win.
Under is 4-0 in Bears last 4 games on fieldturf.
Over is 4-0 in Bears last 4 games following a ATS win.
Over is 6-1 in Bears last 7 games overall.
Over is 6-1 in Bears last 7 games in November.
Under is 17-5 in Bears last 22 games in Week 12.
Under is 6-2 in Bears last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 12-4 in Bears last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Over is 8-3 in Bears last 11 vs. NFC North.

Detroit

Over is 6-1 in Lions last 7 Thursday games.
Over is 5-1 in Lions last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-1 in Lions last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 7-2 in Lions last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 6-2 in Lions last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 6-2 in Lions last 8 vs. NFC North.
Over is 5-2 in Lions last 7 games in November.
Over is 7-3 in Lions last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 7-3 in Lions last 10 games following a straight up win.

Head to Head

Bears are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Home team is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Bears are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Detroit.
 

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Preview: Redskins at Cowboys


In a short week, the Washington Redskins not only have to rebound from a narrow defeat but also move forward after losing their starting quarterback for the remainder of the season. Alex Smith suffered a gruesome injury in Sunday's loss to Houston, leaving Colt McCoy to take over entering Thursday's crucial matchup against the division-rival Dallas Cowboys.

Washington was in firm control of the NFC East following a three-game winning streak that included a 20-17 victory over visiting Dallas, but coach Jay Gruden is confident McCoy can steady the team after two losses in three games. “I'm a big, firm believer in Colt McCoy's ability to play," Gruden said. "This is an opportunity of a lifetime for him. I know he would like it in different circumstances, but things happen for a reason. He'll take advantage of it." The Cowboys appeared ready to drop out of contention before posting consecutive back-to-back road wins at Philadelphia and Atlanta to draw within one game of the Redskins. “You know what Thanksgiving means to the Cowboys and to our tradition," Dallas owner Jerry Jones said. "We’re so proud to have done what we’ve done for the NFL on Thanksgiving Day. To have it boil down to a game of this substance, that will be a treat for us on Thanksgiving Day.”

TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Cowboys -7.5. O/U: 40.5

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (6-4): No matter who is under center, Washington's game plan will remain the same -- control the clock by feeding veteran running back Adrian Peterson and lean on a defense that ranks fifth in points allowed (19.8). Peterson scored twice in Sunday's 23-21 loss to Houston and rushed for 99 yards on 24 carries against Dallas last month, a game in which Smith was limited to 178 yards passing and one touchdown. McCoy, who was 6 of 12 for 54 yards and a TD on Sunday, has made 25 career starts but has not seen substantial duty since appearing in five games with the Redskins in 2014. Washington's No. 6-ranked run defense held Ezekiel Elliott to a season-low 33 yards in Week 7.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (5-5): Elliott has been instrumental in Dallas' last two victories, rushing for 273 yards and a pair of touchdowns while hauling in 13 receptions for 115 yards and another score. Wide receiver Amari Cooper, acquired from Oakland at the trade deadline, has 14 catches for 169 yards and a TD in three games with the Cowboys, but quarterback Dak Prescott has benefited from his presence in the lineup by posting his three top completion percentages during that time. Prescott lost two fumbles in the first matchup, one of which was returned for a TD, and will be without starting tight end Geoff Swaim (wrist). The Cowboys have allowed more than 20 points once in the past six games.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Elliott joined Eric Dickerson and Edgerrin James as the only players with at least 4,500 scrimmage yards and 30 TDs in his first 35 games.

2. Redskins TE Jordan Reed has a season high-tying seven catches last week and 10 receptions for two scores in his last game at Dallas.

3. Cowboys DE Demarcus Lawrence has 3.0 sacks and six tackles for loss in the last three meetings versus Washington.

PREDICTION: Cowboys 23, Redskins 19
 

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ATS Trends
Washington

Redskins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 12.
Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
Redskins are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up loss.
Redskins are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games in November.

Dallas

Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC East.
Cowboys are 4-11 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Cowboys are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games.
Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 12.

OU Trends
Washington

Over is 6-1 in Redskins last 7 Thursday games.
Under is 6-1 in Redskins last 7 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 5-1 in Redskins last 6 road games.
Under is 4-1 in Redskins last 5 vs. NFC.
Under is 4-1 in Redskins last 5 vs. NFC East.
Under is 4-1 in Redskins last 5 games in Week 12.
Over is 8-3 in Redskins last 11 games in November.
Under is 10-4 in Redskins last 14 games overall.

Dallas

Under is 9-0 in Cowboys last 9 games following a straight up win.
Under is 7-1 in Cowboys last 8 games following a ATS win.
Under is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games in Week 12.
Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 8-2 in Cowboys last 10 vs. NFC.
Under is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 vs. NFC East.
Under is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 11-3 in Cowboys last 14 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 14-5 in Cowboys last 19 games overall.

Head to Head

Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
Redskins are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Dallas.
Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
Underdog is 31-10 ATS in their last 41 meetings.
 

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