[h=1]Betting guide for Saints-Cowboys[/h]
NFL Vegas Experts
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Where does the betting value lie in Thursday night's matchup between the Saints and Cowboys? Warren Sharp, Preston Johnson and Mike Clay provide their picks to help you place your bets.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
[h=3]New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys(+7.5)[/h]Total: 52.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 71 percent picked New Orleans
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Johnson: This past Sunday, the Cowboys opened +7.5 against the Saints for tonight's home matchup. As gut-wrenching as it has been for bettors to go against the Saints this season, it's also unlikely that professional bettors will stay away from value and opportunity. As the line moves towards +7 at different shops, grabbing the hook on an especially key number is definitely warranted -- even if it is against New Orleans. My projection for the game is Dallas +5.3, so for anyone who was able to jump on that -- or still can -- I think it is an edge worth betting.
It's hard to put a lot of trust in Jason Garrett, but I would be shocked if Dallas tried to run through the NFL's best rushing defense, rather than attack the Saints 29th-ranked passing defense. Since acquiring Amari Cooper, the Cowboys' passing attack has improved dramatically. They were previously ranked No. 30, but have been league-average since. If Dallas is able to take advantage early and put pressure on New Orleans -- something it hasn't felt for weeks -- then I anticipate this game going down to the wire and the Cowboys keeping it inside the number.
The play: Cowboys (+7.5) or better
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]
Sharp: Amari Cooper over/under 67.5 receiving yards (-115)
After facing a gauntlet of top-10 pass defenses at the season's midpoint (including the Ravens, Vikings and Rams), the Saints have since faced three of the NFL's worst over their past three games (Bengals, Eagles, Falcons). They'll face another bad pass defense Thursday night.
The Cowboys' pass defense has suffered without Sean Lee, who missed Weeks 4-6 as well as the past three games. Over those six "Lee-less" games, the Cowboys allowed a 58 percent success rate and 8.1 yards per attempt. In the six games with Lee, the Cowboys allowed a 49 percent success rate and 7.2 yards per attempt. More specifically, passes to the TE or RB positions saw a 60 percent success rate without Lee and a 49 percent success rate with him on the field. What Dallas does have is a top-10 run defense -- far more difficult than the bottom-10 units the Saints' offense has faced over the past month. Expect the Saints to turn to the air and let Drew Brees take advantage of the passing mismatch.
Meanwhile, over the past three weeks, the Cowboys have played a trio of bottom-10 run defenses. Now they must face New Orleans' No. 3-ranked run defense. While the Cowboys' passing offense sits at No. 27 on the season, it has been trending much higher over the past month. Cooper's presence has given Dallas the precise route-running and explosiveness it lacked earlier this year, drawing similarities to previous seasons when they had Dez Bryant. It will be incumbent on the Cowboys to make their red zone trips count for touchdowns, as the Saints have the NFL's No. 1 red zone offense.
The pick: over
Clay: Drew Brees over/under 298.5 passing yards (-110)
Like any sane person, I'm nervous going "under" on anything related to Brees. Still, I do think Week 13 sets up for him to fall short of 299 passing yards. For starters, Brees fell below this mark in six of 11 games this season. The other five games? Two blowout home wins (against Washington and Philadelphia), shootouts against the Rams and Falcons, and the bizarre Week 1 loss to Tampa Bay.
Looking at the season as a whole, Brees is averaging just 285 passing yards per game. The Saints are operating the No. 2 run-heavy offense in the league (47 percent run) and are on the road this week to face a quality Cowboys defense that is allowing the 11th-fewest passing yards per game. I have Brees projected for 268 passing yards in what I suspect will be a close victory.
The pick: under
NFL Vegas Experts
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Where does the betting value lie in Thursday night's matchup between the Saints and Cowboys? Warren Sharp, Preston Johnson and Mike Clay provide their picks to help you place your bets.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
PickCenter public consensus pick: 71 percent picked New Orleans
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Johnson: This past Sunday, the Cowboys opened +7.5 against the Saints for tonight's home matchup. As gut-wrenching as it has been for bettors to go against the Saints this season, it's also unlikely that professional bettors will stay away from value and opportunity. As the line moves towards +7 at different shops, grabbing the hook on an especially key number is definitely warranted -- even if it is against New Orleans. My projection for the game is Dallas +5.3, so for anyone who was able to jump on that -- or still can -- I think it is an edge worth betting.
It's hard to put a lot of trust in Jason Garrett, but I would be shocked if Dallas tried to run through the NFL's best rushing defense, rather than attack the Saints 29th-ranked passing defense. Since acquiring Amari Cooper, the Cowboys' passing attack has improved dramatically. They were previously ranked No. 30, but have been league-average since. If Dallas is able to take advantage early and put pressure on New Orleans -- something it hasn't felt for weeks -- then I anticipate this game going down to the wire and the Cowboys keeping it inside the number.
The play: Cowboys (+7.5) or better
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]
Sharp: Amari Cooper over/under 67.5 receiving yards (-115)
After facing a gauntlet of top-10 pass defenses at the season's midpoint (including the Ravens, Vikings and Rams), the Saints have since faced three of the NFL's worst over their past three games (Bengals, Eagles, Falcons). They'll face another bad pass defense Thursday night.
The Cowboys' pass defense has suffered without Sean Lee, who missed Weeks 4-6 as well as the past three games. Over those six "Lee-less" games, the Cowboys allowed a 58 percent success rate and 8.1 yards per attempt. In the six games with Lee, the Cowboys allowed a 49 percent success rate and 7.2 yards per attempt. More specifically, passes to the TE or RB positions saw a 60 percent success rate without Lee and a 49 percent success rate with him on the field. What Dallas does have is a top-10 run defense -- far more difficult than the bottom-10 units the Saints' offense has faced over the past month. Expect the Saints to turn to the air and let Drew Brees take advantage of the passing mismatch.
Meanwhile, over the past three weeks, the Cowboys have played a trio of bottom-10 run defenses. Now they must face New Orleans' No. 3-ranked run defense. While the Cowboys' passing offense sits at No. 27 on the season, it has been trending much higher over the past month. Cooper's presence has given Dallas the precise route-running and explosiveness it lacked earlier this year, drawing similarities to previous seasons when they had Dez Bryant. It will be incumbent on the Cowboys to make their red zone trips count for touchdowns, as the Saints have the NFL's No. 1 red zone offense.
The pick: over
Clay: Drew Brees over/under 298.5 passing yards (-110)
Like any sane person, I'm nervous going "under" on anything related to Brees. Still, I do think Week 13 sets up for him to fall short of 299 passing yards. For starters, Brees fell below this mark in six of 11 games this season. The other five games? Two blowout home wins (against Washington and Philadelphia), shootouts against the Rams and Falcons, and the bizarre Week 1 loss to Tampa Bay.
Looking at the season as a whole, Brees is averaging just 285 passing yards per game. The Saints are operating the No. 2 run-heavy offense in the league (47 percent run) and are on the road this week to face a quality Cowboys defense that is allowing the 11th-fewest passing yards per game. I have Brees projected for 268 passing yards in what I suspect will be a close victory.
The pick: under
