Texas +13, Florida +6

rolltide · Dec 2, 2018

every year we see a team (or two) that fails in final regular season game (or conf title game) then installed as favs in bowl games and they not only fail to cover, but lose SU...and play with absolutely no interest

think....Bama vs Okie 2015, Bama vs Utah 2009, barn vs UCF last season, Iowa vs Stanford 2016 (ouch, what a blowout)

this year we have Georgia and Michigan in that position. openings lines are UGA -13, Michigan -6 and both are playing teams with relatively new coaches trying to set their programs in the right direction. smells like potential bets on the dogs (not dawgs)

rolltide · Dec 2, 2018

oppose Missouri -12.5 ... great system to oppose 8+ power-5 favs in december bowl games when facing fairly poor teams (<8 wins). 27-6 ATS and 15-1 L16

TimmyRules · Dec 2, 2018

It's not smart to do even betting small amounts but I already took

TX+14
Fl+7
OSU+14

glad to see a good capper like you looking at all 3

BOL on your Bowl plays w-thumbs!^

Celebdawg · Dec 2, 2018

My site has Texas +10. Guess the line went down fast

rolltide · Dec 2, 2018

Timmy Rules said:
It's not smart to do even betting small amounts but I already took

TX+14
Fl+7
OSU+14

glad to see a good capper like you looking at all 3

BOL on your Bowl plays w-thumbs!^

Kirby's defense at Bama didn't show up for Utah or Oklahoma after same situation hit him and now his DC is leaving for Colorado. that Texas +14 is a beauty IMO and won't be around long. doubt this game stays bigger than 11 or 12 max. waiting for TX moneyline to get posted before the game gets hit like i think it will

Serbone · Dec 2, 2018

Excellent info.
Yep Texas & FL.
Teams that lost conference championships and are bitterly disappointed but big favorites are a good fade. Especially if they coulda been in the playoffs.
And it’s always important to look at new coaches that want to establish a winning culture in their first bowl game.
And when OCs (last yr SMU, MU) leave a team before the bowl game that really is significant... DCs, too.
GL!

born2gamble · Dec 3, 2018

rolltide said:
every year we see a team (or two) that fails in final regular season game (or conf title game) then installed as favs in bowl games and they not only fail to cover, but lose SU...and play with absolutely no interest

think....Bama vs Okie 2015, Bama vs Utah 2009, barn vs UCF last season, Iowa vs Stanford 2016 (ouch, what a blowout)

this year we have Georgia and Michigan in that position. openings lines are UGA -13, Michigan -6 and both are playing teams with relatively new coaches trying to set their programs in the right direction. smells like potential bets on the dogs (not dawgs)

Agree 100 percent

skins85 · Dec 3, 2018

dre'mont jones may skip the bowl game. talk is also that campbell may sit also but nothing is confirmed. haskins is playing he said. could be guys on both sides of that match up sitting out, lot of nfl talent on both teams.

919 · Dec 3, 2018

rolltide said:
oppose Missouri -12.5 ... great system to oppose 8+ power-5 favs in december bowl games when facing fairly poor teams (<8 wins). 27-6 ATS and 15-1 L16

FYI

Some news on the Liberty Bowl front: Mike Gundy says #okstate star RB Justice Hill and Larry Williams "will not participate in the bowl game to pursue future endeavors." #Mizzou

919 · Dec 3, 2018

rolltide said:
oppose Missouri -12.5 ... great system to oppose 8+ power-5 favs in december bowl games when facing fairly poor teams (<8 wins). 27-6 ATS and 15-1 L16

Rolltide, can you please run the numbers on teams that lost last two games of season SU and are favorites in bowl game? I had a running total but lost it.

thanks

rolltide · Dec 3, 2018

919 said:
Rolltide, can you please run the numbers on teams that lost last two games of season SU and are favorites in bowl game? I had a running total but lost it.

thanks

just plug in

F and game type=BG and p:L and pp:L

rolltide · Dec 3, 2018

919 said:
FYI

Some news on the Liberty Bowl front: Mike Gundy says #okstate star RB Justice Hill and Larry Williams "will not participate in the bowl game to pursue future endeavors." #Mizzou

figured hill would miss since he was already injured to end the season

won't be stunned if Lock calls off the bowl game ... it's going to become the new norm for 1st-3rd rounders and will hurt these early bowl bets

got Okie St at 12.5 and is now down to 8.5 so can't argue the line value

Texas down to 10.5 from 13

Knightrofins · Dec 3, 2018

rolltide said:
figured hill would miss since he was already injured to end the season

won't be stunned if Lock calls off the bowl game ... it's going to become the new norm for 1st-3rd rounders and will hurt these early bowl bets

got Okie St at 12.5 and is now down to 8.5 so can't argue the line value

Texas down to 10.5 from 13

I could be wrong here but I cant really think of a time when a top QB sits out a bowl game (again, i could be wrong). Usually, the team will showcase him to improve his draft status.

BTW, i love playing games when a senior qb is playing and is planning to get drafted in the upcomming draft

rolltide · Dec 3, 2018

Knightrofins said:
I could be wrong here but I cant really think of a time when a top QB sits out a bowl game (again, i could be wrong). Usually, the team will showcase him to improve his draft status.

BTW, i love playing games when a senior qb is playing and is planning to get drafted in the upcomming draft

well both josh rosen and luke falk faked like the had an injury so they could miss their bowl game. Rosen fucked all bettors because he said he would play, went through the full warmups on the field, then sat while K State whooped up on UCLA and left bruins bettors shaking their heads.

don't be surprised if several guys do it this year. but, you're right, I can't remember any that specifically said they are skipping game for nfl draft but it will absolutely happen probably starting with Justin Herbert (my guess)

919 · Dec 3, 2018

rolltide said:
just plug in

F and game type=BG and p:L and pp:L

Thank you

919 · Dec 3, 2018

rolltide said:
figured hill would miss since he was already injured to end the season

won't be stunned if Lock calls off the bowl game ... it's going to become the new norm for 1st-3rd rounders and will hurt these early bowl bets

got Okie St at 12.5 and is now down to 8.5 so can't argue the line value

Texas down to 10.5 from 13

I’m curious to see if Will Grier plays

Knightrofins · Dec 3, 2018

rolltide said:
well both josh rosen and luke falk faked like the had an injury so they could miss their bowl game. Rosen fucked all bettors because he said he would play, went through the full warmups on the field, then sat while K State whooped up on UCLA and left bruins bettors shaking their heads.

don't be surprised if several guys do it this year. but, you're right, I can't remember any that specifically said they are skipping game for nfl draft but it will absolutely happen probably starting with Justin Herbert (my guess)

I know Falk and Rosen both had injuries last season.

I guess i'll rephrase. I dont recall a senior QB skipping his bowl game for a non injury. Or we can say I dont recall a senior qb skipping his bowl game for a non injury b/c he is afraid to get injured and ruin his draft status.

I would love to see a stat on senior qb's who will be drafted and how they fare in bowl games. Like I said, i have always liked that angle

Serbone · Dec 3, 2018

rolltide said:
well both josh rosen and luke falk faked like the had an injury so they could miss their bowl game. Rosen fucked all bettors because he said he would play, went through the full warmups on the field, then sat while K State whooped up on UCLA and left bruins bettors shaking their heads.

don't be surprised if several guys do it this year. but, you're right, I can't remember any that specifically said they are skipping game for nfl draft but it will absolutely happen probably starting with Justin Herbert (my guess)

Great point.
I was aware and was able to go with K State at the last minute. There were several cases like this and / or players that were suspended but not announced until just before kickoff.
It is terrible that star players are now sitting out these bowl games, not sure what can be done about it.

(also, don't you think that incident at Houston, where coach pulled the DL's Oliver's coat on the sidelines... who had been out for a few games... coach knew he was ducking for the draft and would also not play in the bowl? IMO no wonder coach was pissed. They smoothed it over but IMO that is why it got a little hot.)

AlistairCookie · Dec 4, 2018

“It’s terrible...what can be done...”

Tell them they’ll still make millions of dollars even if they get hurt in a meaningless exhibition?

bones1980 · Dec 8, 2018

When a SEC loses their bowl games , ppl say they weren’t modivatied! Lol

Texas +13, Florida +6

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