Running dogs 2018-2019

NoCoke · Dec 2, 2018

Underdogs with the better rushing offense and defense usually do pretty well ATS during bowl season.. plenty of threads on here about it. Unless I’m making a mistake, here’s the list:

GA Southern PK
LA Tech 2.5
Cal 1.5
Baylor 7.5
Iowa State 7.5
Virginia 7.5
Washington 6

Not a great list this year. I’m not even sure LA Tech and Iowa State are really RDs as both have rush offenses ranked below 110. Baylor barely qualifies. GSU and Cal are basically pickems. Still can’t get myself to bet on Washington as long as Browning is there..

rolltide · Dec 4, 2018

if the only parameters are:
dog
more avg yards rush/game
less avg yards rush allowed/game

then this is the query but it is pretty unsuccessful so....

game type = BG and tA(rushing yards) > otA(rushing yards) and tA(o:rushing yards) < otA(o:rushing yards) and D

SU:	25-45-0 (-5.21, 35.7%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	30-40-0 (-0.08, 42.9%)	avg line: 5.1	+6: 46-24-0 (65.7%)	-6: 25-44-1 (36.2%)	+10: 50-20-0 (71.4%)	-10: 15-54-1 (21.7%)
O/U:	35-33-2 (-1.40, 51.5%)	avg total: 57.3	+6: 21-47-2 (30.9%)	-6: 44-26-0 (62.9%)	+10: 17-52-1 (24.6%)	-10: 48-22-0 (68.6%)

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Passes	Pass Yds	Comp	TOs	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	38.1	163.3	31.5	210.3	18.0	1.8	4.8	8.5	5.4	6.9	25.4
Opp	36.6	157.2	35.1	260.8	21.0	1.7	7.3	8.4	7.1	7.0	30.6

Date	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Line	Total	ot
Jan 01, 2019	Tuesday	19	2018	WAS	OHST	neutral	5.5	58.5	0
Dec 29, 2018	Saturday	18	2018	VIR	SCAR	neutral	4.5	54.5	0
Dec 28, 2018	Friday	18	2018	IWST	WAST	neutral	4.0	54.5	0
Dec 22, 2018	Saturday	17	2018	LTCH	HAW	away	2.0	57.5

GoSooners · Dec 4, 2018

No Coke said:
Underdogs with the better rushing offense and defense usually do pretty well ATS during bowl season.. plenty of threads on here about it. Unless I’m making a mistake, here’s the list:

GA Southern PK
LA Tech 2.5
Cal 1.5
Baylor 7.5
Iowa State 7.5
Virginia 7.5
Washington 6

Not a great list this year. I’m not even sure LA Tech and Iowa State are really RDs as both have rush offenses ranked below 110. Baylor barely qualifies. GSU and Cal are basically pickems. Still can’t get myself to bet on Washington as long as Browning is there..

Actually there are more running dogs than are on your list. My website has 15 running dogs give or take according to how the lines move. And a few that have very close numbers to being PRD's. The running dogs went 9-3 last year. And they are hitting at 60.84% over a 12 year period. Which is how long Pezgordo and I have been doing this dating back to our early days at the RX...

isellgel · Dec 4, 2018

GoSooners said:
Actually there are more running dogs than are on your list. My website has 15 running dogs give or take according to how the lines move. And a few that have very close numbers to being PRD's. The running dogs went 9-3 last year. And they are hitting at 60.84% over a 12 year period. Which is how long Pezgordo and I have been doing this dating back to our early days at the RX...

Will you be sharing this info with us RXers?

NoCoke · Dec 5, 2018

Oii. Sorry guys, see my mistake. Should be (off ypc - opponents d ypc) + (opponents ypc - def ypc), adjusted for FCS games. If the dog has a higher # than the favorite, it’s a running dog.

if you do that, you get:

Washington
michigan state
la tech
troy
pittsburgh
houston
az state
utah state
niu
wisconsin
iowa state
oklahoma
ucf

then you have cal, Nevada, and ga southern as running dogs if they end up as underdogs. Purdue is also very close to qualifying (-0.12 dif vs auburn).

maybe GS will be kind enough to let us know if this sounds close. put together this myself so there’s always a chance of a slight difference

GoSooners · Dec 5, 2018

No Coke said:
Oii. Sorry guys, see my mistake. Should be (off ypc - opponents d ypc) + (opponents ypc - def ypc), adjusted for FCS games. If the dog has a higher # than the favorite, it’s a running dog.

if you do that, you get:

Washington
michigan state
la tech
troy
pittsburgh
houston
az state
utah state
niu
wisconsin
iowa state
oklahoma
ucf

then you have cal, Nevada, and ga southern as running dogs if they end up as underdogs. Purdue is also very close to qualifying (-0.12 dif vs auburn).

maybe GS will be kind enough to let us know if this sounds close. put together this myself so there’s always a chance of a slight difference

No Coke...You hit the nail on the head with your second list.... Also teams didn’t quite qualify as PRD’s, but were either close and/or could outrush their favored opponents include: ULL, SDSU, Boston College, Virginia & Kentucy ....One thing you need to be careful of when capping these running dogs are the teams that are moving up in class. The running dogs probably fail to cover more because of conference strength than anything else. You really have to judge for yourself how much weight an AQ Conference dog is going to carry when going up against a Power 5 conference team. For example, last week running dog Marshall was going up against Va Tech. Tech had terrible numbers coming into that game, giving up over 200 ypg rushing on defense. Twice as much as Marshall. Yet they were easily able to cover the spread. Three things I found wrong with picking Marshall in that spot. They were playing on the road, moving up in class, and only getting 3.5 points....Bowls are a little different than the regular season so you have to take into account the intangibles like teams that are happy to be there, coaching changes, player defections, players stealing lobsters/suspensions, and most importantly are you getting fair value with the line.

Knightrofins · Dec 5, 2018

Nice work!!!

NoCoke · Dec 5, 2018

Thanks for the premium insight, GS...

NoCoke · Dec 5, 2018

Couple of observations from the numbers side.. do as you will with them:

-Pitt and Iowa State are both RDs going up against favorites with a negative rushing rank
-LA Tech is going up against the team (Hawaii) with the lowest rushing rank, but is also in the negative as well
-Washington leads the RDs with the highest net difference, going up against Ohio state
-Clemson has the highest net difference (against ND) out of the favorites. Also has the highest rushing rank.. almost 1.5 points higher than second (miss state)

rolltide · Dec 8, 2018

No Coke said:
Oii. Sorry guys, see my mistake. Should be (off ypc - opponents d ypc) + (opponents ypc - def ypc), adjusted for FCS games. If the dog has a higher # than the favorite, it’s a running dog.

happy to automate this for you and create a query that would allow me to dig deeper and find some situations well above 60% but I must not be following because I don't come up with anything similar

running the same thing you posted (minus the FCS piece) and you get http://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...nd+game+type+=+BG+and+D+&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

I'm running

(dog's offensive YPRA-fav's defensive YPRA) + (fav's offensive YPRA-dog's defensive YPRA)> 0

NoCoke · Dec 8, 2018

rolltide said:
happy to automate this for you and create a query that would allow me to dig deeper and find some situations well above 60% but I must not be following because I don't come up with anything similar

running the same thing you posted (minus the FCS piece) and you get http://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...nd+game+type+=+BG+and+D+&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

I'm running

(dog's offensive YPRA-fav's defensive YPRA) + (fav's offensive YPRA-dog's defensive YPRA)> 0

If I’m following correctly I think your formula is a little off. The “opponent” part of the formula should be the average of the teams they’ve played thus far. So when calculating Oklahoma, you would need to take the average of FAU, UCLA, etc. offensive and defensive ypra. And then if the number greater than Alabama’s, OU a running dog.

So it should be:

(Oklahoma’s OYPRA - average of schools played’s DYPRA) + (average of schools played’s OYPRA - Oklahoma’s DYPRA).

And compare it to

(Alabama’s OYPRA - average of schools played’s DYPRA) + (average of schools played’s OYPRA - Alabama’s DYPRA).

Curious to see what you’d come back with if you could make that work.

rolltide · Dec 8, 2018

gotcha. that's beyond my coding skills (if it's even possible to query in the dbase) when taking into account the DYPRA and OYPRA of opponent's faced

Serbone · Dec 8, 2018

Great stuff, much appreciated!

NoCoke · Dec 8, 2018

Utah State shouldn’t be on there obviously. Had them listed as an underdog by accident.

TomandJerry · Dec 8, 2018

thank you and good luck.................................TJ

Let's go.

BLAK_MAMBA · Dec 15, 2018

No Coke said:
Oii. Sorry guys, see my mistake. Should be (off ypc - opponents d ypc) + (opponents ypc - def ypc), adjusted for FCS games. If the dog has a higher # than the favorite, it’s a running dog.

if you do that, you get:

Washington
michigan state
la tech
troy
pittsburgh
houston
az state
utah state
niu
wisconsin
iowa state
oklahoma
ucf

then you have cal, Nevada, and ga southern as running dogs if they end up as underdogs. Purdue is also very close to qualifying (-0.12 dif vs auburn).

maybe GS will be kind enough to let us know if this sounds close. put together this myself so there’s always a chance of a slight difference

bump for everyone.

skins85 · Dec 15, 2018

solid stuff, thank you for posting. will likely follow on these and play most on the ml as well. i assume a lot of these dogs won straight up as well.

Saints2016 · Dec 15, 2018

Roll tide! Is it possible to do a query that shows bowl games that gets less than 40% of bets/35% etc? And possible to combine it with better defensive rankings etc, better running game? Sorry, lots of questions and the last one is probably not possible?

southfloridian · Dec 15, 2018

Thanks fellas for the information, used correctly gives the players a bit more in the arsenal

Locksmith · Dec 15, 2018

Hey fellas, just curious why Utah St. is listed? They are a favorite. Maybe I missed something...

Running dogs 2018-2019

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