Bowl Game Thread

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Got to try and win back those 30 or so units. Lost about 30% of my betting bank. 1/2 point loss Saturday's Bama game, back door cover the week before by USC vs. ND….or it'd be a different story. That being said, made plenty of stupid bets too.

5* Army -6.5 Haven't lost this game in many years. Let's not make this the first. Just think Army has a distinct advantage defensively. Navy's defensive efficiency is somewhere between Hawaii and Illinois or Colorado State, which is plain awful. Army has the better linebackers and defensive backs, and I think will get more stops. Also, the Army QB is the better passer, although that's by military academy standards. Army and Navy pass only as a surprise play(keep your opponent honest play), a long 3rd down, or as some sort of trick play. Navy's opponents have been uncharacteristically effective stopping their offense much of the time, and Army should do much better considering they practice against their own offense all season. Both teams do, thus the low total. Army is also the more veteran team, with 24 seniors, and players with overall more playing time.

2* EWU -9.5 Going out on a limb to say that EWU might have one of their best teams ever. Definitely one of their best defenses, and in the Big Sky, they are the best at least by 2nd half season standards. UC Davis travels to cold Cheney, Washington, where they have already gotten pounded once this year. UC Davis can match EWU offensively, but they are a sieve on defense. EWU has beaten their last 5 teams by an average of 33 points a game, and that includes some good competition. EWU had 371 yards on the ground last game vs. UC Davis, and over 300 yards in the air. Like the Army game, EWU has the defensive edge, and will get more stops, covering the 9.5.
 

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O fred - Good luck this bowl season...you’re due for a good run. Always look for your write-ups each week.

Question on this Army/Navy game...

Why is this line under 7? Army (9-3) vs Navy (3-9). Navy has been terrible this year, and Army the exact opposite. It just doesn’t make sense to me...thought the line would be at least 8, but likely higher. Army has won two in a row in the series to boot, albeit both were close.

Just wondering who’s betting Navy, aside from the contrarion (which there aren’t that many of). Just curious to hear your perspective and what you “thought” the line should’ve been.

Thanks and GL

:toast:
 

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Fred...…..BOL with all your action this Bowl Season buddy......your write ups are a must ……….let's get'em ……...indy
 

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O fred - Good luck this bowl season...you’re due for a good run. Always look for your write-ups each week.

Question on this Army/Navy game...

Why is this line under 7? Army (9-3) vs Navy (3-9). Navy has been terrible this year, and Army the exact opposite. It just doesn’t make sense to me...thought the line would be at least 8, but likely higher. Army has won two in a row in the series to boot, albeit both were close.

Just wondering who’s betting Navy, aside from the contrarion (which there aren’t that many of). Just curious to hear your perspective and what you “thought” the line should’ve been.

Thanks and GL

:toast:
Since Army has improved in recent years, this and other military academy games have been usually close in score. The total and line are low because both teams are very familiar defensively with the others offenses, and know how to defend them well. Other opponents sometimes get hammered by a military academy because they have one week to prep, and this puts them at a disadvantage since one week is not enough. Army almost knocked off Oklahoma for this reason. Army has playmakers on defense, more experience, better QB- that's why I am willing to give up the points.
 

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1/2 points can matter a lot, and glad to get the Army win, but until the 4th quarter, they dominated.

Bowl Season is like a new season. You can't look at it as a continuation of the regular season with a 1-3 week bye. Teams can be really prepared and motivated, or just the opposite. This can be a more telling factor than stats and game results during the regular season.

2* Tulane -3 (-120) ULL just played the Sun Belt Championship game, lost to App. State, and seems crushed they won't be going to the New Orleans Bowl. Going to Orlando, with such a small fan base that travels, they very well could be down from their usual game. Tulane seems very excited about the bowl game since ether haven't gone in a while. Tulane the better defense, playing the better schedule.Neither team has many practices, and with recruiting, coaches are busy. Tulane just seems more content to play a bowl game away from New Orleans, and I'll go with HC Willie ritz's optimistic attitude here.

1* Tulane/ ULL- under 29.5 1H Long layoff, two QBs not known to be much at passing down field. Passing game could be off early. Lots of running. ULL has pretty bad defensive stats, but seemed to have defended better late in the season and against better competition. Tulane can defend the ULL running attack much better than about 3/4 of the Sun Belt teams.
 

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5* Utah State -9 Yes, Utah State lost their HC, but there are reasons to play them here. Some teams fall apart at bowl time when there is a coaching change and some disruptions. It seems though that the veteran Aggies team is pulling together to get ready for this bowl game. They have very strong senior leadership, and both the OC and DC will remain to practice for the bowl game before leaving to join Matt Wells at Texas Tech. Utah State has very good front 7 defensively, and will make UNT a one dimensional offense for this game. I also think UNT is the worst kind of bowl team. They are a pass heavy team, that runs the ball so-so vs. weak competition. Defensively they also are vulnerable to the up tempo offense that Utah St. will use. Got a strong feeling UNT's defense will have award time getting stops here. Utah State had an amazing season, and only a late TD at Boise, in their last game, eliminated them from the Mt. West Championship. If you've seen them play, they are a high effort, disciplined team. Their final game together, and a spread that looks too good to be true for UNT…it is.
 

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I know that underdogs tend to cover more in the early bowl games, but man is it hard finding one in the first grouping. A few years ago, the the favorites went 7-0 ATS to start the bowl season. Unlikely, but possible.

2* Fresno -4 Fresno's defense has stopped or limited everyone this season. Minnesota, UCLA, SDSU, Nevada, Boise twice, except for 2 TDs 2H their first game. Toledo scored 2 garbage time TDs to get to 27. It's not just that N'Keal Harry isn't playing here, but it seems ASU is more focused on playing everyone on their roster to get a look at the younger players. I also think Manny Wilkins and Enos Benjamin are going to make a difference for ASU, but the ASU defense might really struggle to get off the field. Their run defense is terrible at times. The line is a little steep, but it just seems that this is a lame bowl game for a PAC 12 team, while Fresno might have the motivation to beat a team from a higher conference. Also, Fresno has so far held their solid coaching staff together. Harry's receiving yards are more than double the next guy on the ASU receiving corp. He might be worth 7 points alone.
 

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Always enjoy reading your breakdowns bro ...thx for posting ..GL !
 

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2* North Dakota St. -9 The Bisons keep their head coach throughout the playoffs, and really it wasn't a surprise to the players even before it happened. I doubt it effects them either way. The Bisons went out and toasted Colgate last week, a team that had the best statistical D in the FCS..and ND St. put 35 on them easily. ND State at home. SD State only lost by 4 earlier in the season, and they are a quality opponent, but ND St. has a different gear for these playoff games. Every player on the field for them was recruited by Kielman, and I think they'll play an emotional game in their final home game.

2* EMU/ Georgia Southern- under 47.5
Two offenses that will just bore you to death. GS has a strong running game that tends to go south vs. better defensive teams. And their passing game is nada. EMU doesn't do anything particularly well offensively, and yet their defense has kept them in every game this year. One of the nice things about this under is that both teams will run the ball often, draining clock. Field goals will be important in this game. Another factor is that both teams have OLs that don't hold up well in pass blocking, EMU giving up 38 sacks, and GS, although hardly passing, giving up another 20.
 

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5* Marshall -2.5 USF ended the season terribly, but if you look at their 7-0 start, you can also see very little to get positive about. Their Ga. Tech win at the beginning of the season is about the only game to crow about. They had a nice 3 TD run in that game against a fairly weak GT defense, and won a home game by 11 vs. an ACC team. They lucked out at Tulsa, a game they should have lost, got hammered by Tulane at home, and 4 of their wins were vs. UConn, ECU, UMass and Elon- 4 just awful defenses. Blake Barnett, their QB, is questionable with 2 separate injuries, and even if he plays, he'll be rusty. I also think having the game close to home can be more of a distraction than a plus.

Doc Holliday has been an amazingly successful bowl coach. Considering that the bowl season is a season onto itself, I like Marhsall's chances. After a couple of down years, they have a lot of good young talent and a defense that is one of the better ones in Conference USA. Without their 2 ACC losses, their D stats are the best in the conf. Charlie Strong has designated a new play caller for the bowls, and seems more focused on recruiting and coaching concerns than this bowl game. I think we'll see the emergence of Conference Freshman of the Year, Isaiah Green, the Marshall QB.

5* Army -3 (-120) Houston looks like the worst kind of bowl team to be playing Army. With their starting QB, D'Eriq King, they'd have a decent chance. He's that good. With him out, and their awful defense, I have no idea how their D will stop Army. The Houston DL will be without Ed Oliver, but it is their LB corp that is so bad vs. the run. Firing their DC won't save them, and the loss of key defenders for the season has been hard to overcome. Army also has a surprisingly solid defense, and that includes their pass D. Don't want to over-think this game. Really think this line jumps up to 4 or 5.
 

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Fred...….appreciate the early info and thought's buddy...……..get'em…….indy
 

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1* UAB -2.5 Both teams have stellar defenses, and good running games. Their defensive efficiency stat is almost identical. Neither has a reliable passing QB, although NIU's QB came on 2nd half in the MAC Championship game. However, until then, he was inconsistent the whole season. I just think UAB is a more cohesive team, that plays super hard for HC Bill Clark- who just signed an extension even though he likely could go elsewhere to a bigger program. The other reason is that NIU's HC, Rod Carey, has been absolutely awful in bowl games. Fans think he plays younger players more and seniors that didn't play much during the season. His play-calling is also questionable. NIU has an excellent pass rush, but can be more vulnerable to the run. May go 2* depending on today's results.
 

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2* Ohio -2.5 SD State has been a pretty good bowl team under Rocky Long. But this year's team just seems to be his worst team in many years. They are getting almost nothing on offense from their QBs, and the OL has been terrible at pass blocking, probably a factor in the poor QB play. They also don't have the types of receivers that get much separation from DBs. It's RB Juwan Washington and not much else. The Aztec D is still pretty good, but not dominant as in past years, giving up way too much offensively to Hawaii, UNLV, Nevada, and other Mt. West teams. Ohio has defensive issues, but they have played better 2nd half of the season. They are also a decent bowl team under Frank Solich. The Ohio run-pass option has been the perfect offense under QB Nathan Rourke, and they run the ball better than SD State does…a large factor in bowl games. Rourke has also improved as a passer. Just think this Ohio team might be the one MAC team to shine in the bowl season.
 

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3* Wake Forest +3.5 I think Memphis is favored here because they were the better running team, Wake has a backup QB, and Wake has had a lot of injuries to deal with this season. Greg Dortch, their go-to WR is questionable with a finger injury. But…. Memphis will be without the one guy that should get much of the credit for their success on offense- Darrell Henderson. He has great running instincts, turning small gains into big chunks. Henderson got a lot of yards after contact, and also had good blocking skills and receiving skills. An unselfish player and role model for other players. I predict that Brady White, the Memphis QB, will struggle this game without Henderson. White has been somewhat inconsistent this year anyways, and in games I've seen, he doesn't have those good 3rd and long passing skills. Memphis will still have a decent run game, but Henderson is a huge loss.

Memphis is coming off a downer of a CG loss to UCF, only scoring 3 points in the 2nd half and losing by 15, and then not having Henderson for the upcoming game, while Wake is pretty happy about a bowl game they didn't expect. Going into their last 3 games, who would have expected them to crush Duke and beat NC State on their field? Dave Clawson and his coaching staff had an excellent game plan for both of those games, and in a bowl game, with extra prep time, I think we'll see the same. Clawson and Wake won their last 2 bowl games, one as a 12 point dog. Wake also has a comparably strong running game. As for their sophomore QB, Jamie Newman, he has 3 starts under his belt, two excellent ones in the above mentioned wins. He will also benefit from the extra practices.

In summary, I know the Wake D has been awful at times, but the Memphis D is possibly worse, playing weaker competition. I doubt Brady White can make up for Henderson's loss, and Wake's running game impresses.
 

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3* La. Tech ML Hawaii getting some betting cred based on this being in Hawaii. That premise, that Hawaii is a good bet at home has been false for the past 3-4 years. They are 4-13 ATS at home the last three years. Even in their bowls at home, they are 3-4 ATS. Hawaii just seems like the worst kind of bowl team, all passing, but a very weak running game and defense. Cole McDonald and the spread offense has some big numbers, but against better teams, Hawaii has only scored about 21 points per game. Although La. Tech hasn't run the ball all that well this season, they have rarely faced a defense this bad.

La. Tech has played up to the competition this year, holding FAU, LSU and UNT's offenses in check pretty well, beating FAU and UNT on the road. But they played 10 straight weeks, and at the end of the year, were out of gas…and thus two losses to end the season. La. Tech was 24th in pass defense, with 36 sacks, 21st in yards lost defensively, and although Hawaii will get a few scores in there, I'm not sure how Hawaii will stop the LT offense. J'Mar Smith, the LT QB, has been inconsistent, but at times, has also been outstanding. With the extra practice time, and vs. a weaker than usual D, he should be okay. Skip Holtz's LT teams have won their last 4 bowls, 3 by blowouts. He and his staff practice to win bowl games, not just to get the young guys some playing time. Look for a LT RB to have a surprisingly great game here.

Oh, and Brett Stockstill had 330 yards passing and MTSU still lost by 32. Hawaii suffers the same fate?
 

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So far, 6-2, +14.7 units.

1* WMU +12.5 WMU might be one of the worst bowl teams bowling this season. So why play them? BYU. BYU's players and fans can't hide their contempt for playing another game on the crappy blue turf in Boise. They already lost there once this season, and players despise playing on a turf that leaves players with rug burns and worse. BYU is missing a couple of key defenders, a couple of RBs, playing tons of freshmen, and has a HC who is not known for discipline or game planning. WMU and BYU are both playing true freshman QBs, and BYU's is the better of the two. However, WMU has a very good running game that keeps them on the field for long drives. They had a couple of horrible games this season, losing bad to Ohio and Toledo, but did beat NIU the last game of the year, and also notching wins vs. Miami, OH and EMU. They would likely get blown out by an inspired team that has more talent than BYU, but in this game they get BYU, a team that can play well enough to beat Wisconsin and Arizona, but at other times have been plain awful. BYU went 3-5 their last 8, with only wins vs. UMass, NMSU and Hawaii.
 

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NIU looks awful, especially their QB. Until the 2nd half of the MAC championship, he looked about like this, though, so not a total surprise. Got to give Bill Clark credit for going with the young QB instead of the senior guy. Childers: 16 rushes for 18 yards? Not good.
 

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