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Thread: Line moves of 3 or more points in Bowl Games

  1. #1 Line moves of 3 or more points in Bowl Games 
    RX Senior
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    Anyone have any research on Bowl Games which move 3 or more points , if they cover or not ?

    Appreciate the help !!
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  2. #2  
    RX SemiGod bookiereport's Avatar
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    No they do not. Fade line moves in bowls
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  3. #3  
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    Quote Originally Posted by bookiereport View Post
    No they do not. Fade line moves in bowls

    Like it BR ... planning on doing just that ..possibly
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  4. #4  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kaboom View Post
    Like it BR ... planning on doing just that ..possibly
    Hits about 57% over years. Rolltide can probably give you exact numbers
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  5. #5  
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    There is no edge on 3 point line moves. Its right around 50%, just ran the numbers
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  6. #6  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Biz View Post
    There is no edge on 3 point line moves. Its right around 50%, just ran the numbers
    Thanks Biz ...I have 5 more years to go ... started at 2007 ...as far as ats ...with line movement either way 2 or more ... for all games prior to Jan 1st games
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  7. #7  
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    Can someone explain the logic behind choosing a team to bet on in football, based on line movement?
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  8. #8  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Serbone View Post
    Can someone explain the logic behind choosing a team to bet on in football, based on line movement?
    The assumption is that there is a big money(smart money) move. Because it is a bowl game the line often moves early because people want that line they feel is a mistake. So, when you see people put big money on it early to change it....they assume it is the right side Later on it could be because of injuries or sitting players. Stupid to bet early in bowl games regardless of what you think the value is because of not knowing who may be out. We all know how these bowl games are
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  9. #9  
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    Quote Originally Posted by exploited17 View Post
    The assumption is that there is a big money(smart money) move. Because it is a bowl game the line often moves early because people want that line they feel is a mistake. So, when you see people put big money on it early to change it....they assume it is the right side Later on it could be because of injuries or sitting players. Stupid to bet early in bowl games regardless of what you think the value is because of not knowing who may be out. We all know how these bowl games are

    Guilty .... as charged ... I bet small though ...big difference .... But you are right , at times I get burned . GL this year !
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  10. #10  
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    Yes NEVER bet on a bowl game early.

    • Unknown injuries pop up at the last minute.
    • Last minute suspensions.
    • Kids decide to sit out for the draft.
    • Coaching changes (if an OC leaves that can be worse than a HC leaving).
    • Weather (a few years ago U Conn played a southern team in Memphis it was unseasonably cold they won big)
    • Bowl trends (eg. suddenly you realize the ACC has gone 0-4 so far ATS)

    I mostly avoid looking at line movement as an approach to wagering. Sometimes a key player is very questionable and the line moves one way the last day, and I suspect the line makers know that he is playing or not playing, stuff like that, but I do not let most line movements affect my selections.
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  11. #11  
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    A good point that you can get burnt but I've seen plenty of times an overreaction to a key player being out and that bites you in the ass too.

    Agree on the coaching changes!!

    I would never bet early if I was playing anything over a Jackson on a game!
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