[h=1]Betting guide for Jaguars-Titans[/h]
NFL Vegas Experts
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Where does the betting value lie in Thursday night's matchup between the Jaguars and Titans? Warren Sharp, Preston Johnson and Mike Clay provide their picks to help you place your bets.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
[h=3]Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-4.5)[/h]Total: 37.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 62 percent picked Tennessee
Johnson: Cody Kessler is getting the start again for the Jaguars. There's an interesting dynamic brewing in Jacksonville in that Kessler didn't lead the offense to any touchdowns this past Sunday and only managed to throw for 150 yards, yet the Jaguars still won the game 6-0 over the Colts. <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">They have always had an elite defense, but Blake Bortles was making costly mistakes that put their defense in extremely difficult spots. Kessler didn't turn the ball over, and Jacksonville won a game over an Andrew Luck-led Colts team that had been on absolute fire -- and did so despite only scoring six points.
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The Titans stormed back late in their Week 13 matchup against the Jets, stealing a win and keeping their playoff hopes alive. I have some concerns that Tennessee struggled to keep Josh McCown and the Jets' offense in check, but can they really be troubled by Kessler and Jacksonville's after scoring just six points at home against the Colts?
My projection for the game is Titans (-3.9) and 36.6. I won't likely have a play on either the side or the total in this Thursday night game, but 37 is a fairly key number for a total in this range, and my numbers do point to a slight edge on the under. Tennessee has struggled to run the ball effectively all season, and resorting to throwing on the Jaguars defense is never going to be an easy task. (Jacksonville has allowed the fourth-fewest opponent yards per pass attempt.) I wouldn't argue with anyone looking to bet under here.
Pick: Pass
Sharp: On Sunday, the Titans squeezed by the Jets in an ugly, inefficient game. Meanwhile, the Jaguars upset the Colts in an even uglier, lower-scoring and less-efficient game. Against a bad pass defense, Kessler had a mundane 6.3 yards per attempt and 44 percent success rate. Jacksonville relied on their ground game, but that was also highly inefficient against the Colts' No. 4 run defense without starter Leonard Fournette in the lineup.
Tennessee's run defense is struggling in a major way, despite having faced three bad run offenses over the past three weeks. They allowed a combined 5.6 yards per carry to the Colts, Texans and Jets -- teams that rank No. 19, 26 and 28 in rushing efficiency. The Jaguars have been without Fournette for most of the year and overall have faced the third-toughest run defense schedule. Being able to run against the Titans should be exactly what the doctor ordered. If this line gets to 6, I would look to get on the Jaguars.
Lean: Jaguars +4.5
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]Clay: Cody Kessler over/under 18.5 completions (-110)
Kessler is a conservative quarterback, as shown by his 5.5-yard average depth of throw this season. That may not lead to a lot of big offensive plays, but it does lead to a high completion percentage. Kessler completed 18 of 24 passes (75 percent) against Indianapolis last week and was 21 of 30 (70 percent) in relief work against Houston two weeks ago. Kessler has played on at least 80 percent of his team's offensive snaps in five career games and has completed 18-plus passes in all of them. (Back in 2016, he completed 21, 28, 26 and 19 passes in his four "complete" games.)
On the defensive side, Tennessee is allowing 21.1 completions per game this season. The unit has allowed 18-plus completions in 10 of 12 contests. The exceptions came against a pair of low-volume passers -- Josh Allen and Josh McCown. I have Kessler tabbed for 21 completions on Thursday night.
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The pick: Over
NFL Vegas Experts
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Where does the betting value lie in Thursday night's matchup between the Jaguars and Titans? Warren Sharp, Preston Johnson and Mike Clay provide their picks to help you place your bets.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
PickCenter public consensus pick: 62 percent picked Tennessee
Johnson: Cody Kessler is getting the start again for the Jaguars. There's an interesting dynamic brewing in Jacksonville in that Kessler didn't lead the offense to any touchdowns this past Sunday and only managed to throw for 150 yards, yet the Jaguars still won the game 6-0 over the Colts. <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">They have always had an elite defense, but Blake Bortles was making costly mistakes that put their defense in extremely difficult spots. Kessler didn't turn the ball over, and Jacksonville won a game over an Andrew Luck-led Colts team that had been on absolute fire -- and did so despite only scoring six points.
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The Titans stormed back late in their Week 13 matchup against the Jets, stealing a win and keeping their playoff hopes alive. I have some concerns that Tennessee struggled to keep Josh McCown and the Jets' offense in check, but can they really be troubled by Kessler and Jacksonville's after scoring just six points at home against the Colts?
My projection for the game is Titans (-3.9) and 36.6. I won't likely have a play on either the side or the total in this Thursday night game, but 37 is a fairly key number for a total in this range, and my numbers do point to a slight edge on the under. Tennessee has struggled to run the ball effectively all season, and resorting to throwing on the Jaguars defense is never going to be an easy task. (Jacksonville has allowed the fourth-fewest opponent yards per pass attempt.) I wouldn't argue with anyone looking to bet under here.
Pick: Pass
Sharp: On Sunday, the Titans squeezed by the Jets in an ugly, inefficient game. Meanwhile, the Jaguars upset the Colts in an even uglier, lower-scoring and less-efficient game. Against a bad pass defense, Kessler had a mundane 6.3 yards per attempt and 44 percent success rate. Jacksonville relied on their ground game, but that was also highly inefficient against the Colts' No. 4 run defense without starter Leonard Fournette in the lineup.
Tennessee's run defense is struggling in a major way, despite having faced three bad run offenses over the past three weeks. They allowed a combined 5.6 yards per carry to the Colts, Texans and Jets -- teams that rank No. 19, 26 and 28 in rushing efficiency. The Jaguars have been without Fournette for most of the year and overall have faced the third-toughest run defense schedule. Being able to run against the Titans should be exactly what the doctor ordered. If this line gets to 6, I would look to get on the Jaguars.
Lean: Jaguars +4.5
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]Clay: Cody Kessler over/under 18.5 completions (-110)
Kessler is a conservative quarterback, as shown by his 5.5-yard average depth of throw this season. That may not lead to a lot of big offensive plays, but it does lead to a high completion percentage. Kessler completed 18 of 24 passes (75 percent) against Indianapolis last week and was 21 of 30 (70 percent) in relief work against Houston two weeks ago. Kessler has played on at least 80 percent of his team's offensive snaps in five career games and has completed 18-plus passes in all of them. (Back in 2016, he completed 21, 28, 26 and 19 passes in his four "complete" games.)
On the defensive side, Tennessee is allowing 21.1 completions per game this season. The unit has allowed 18-plus completions in 10 of 12 contests. The exceptions came against a pair of low-volume passers -- Josh Allen and Josh McCown. I have Kessler tabbed for 21 completions on Thursday night.
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The pick: Over
