35% on Wash. Why?

uscmd · Dec 8, 2018

I just can't see Sanchez engineering a win, or a cover for that matter. Yet 35% are on Wash. Please explain.

Even with OBJ out. Wash is 16th in rushing, ~115yds/gm. Ny is 21st in run defense. Can't see Wash controlling ball and marching down field vs 8 in the box. All of Sanchez's stats are several years out of date. Before last week, 2 games and 10 passes in 3 years, with a qbr of 3.2.

Any thoughts on how wash makes 3.5 a winner?

BOL 2 all ! :toast:

SEASON	TEAM	GP	CMP	ATT	CMP%	YDS	AVG	TD	LNG	INT	FUM	QBR	RAT
2009	NYJ	15	196	364	53.8	2,444	6.71	12	65	20	8	34.8	63.0
2010	NYJ	16	278	507	54.8	3,291	6.49	17	74	13	5	51.6	75.3
2011	NYJ	16	308	543	56.7	3,474	6.40	26	74	18	4	44.1	78.2
2012	NYJ	15	246	453	54.3	2,883	6.36	13	66	18	9	27.1	66.9
2014	PHI	9	198	309	64.1	2,418	7.83	14	72	11	3	57.5	88.4
2015	PHI	4	59	91	64.8	616	6.77	4	43	4	1	34.4	80.7
2016	DAL	2	10	18	55.6	93	5.17	0	33	2	0	3.2	30.3
2018	WSH	1	13	21	61.9	100	4.76	0	20	1	1	13.3	53.7
Career	78	1,308	2,306	56.7	15,319	6.64	86	74

exploited17 · Dec 8, 2018

You act like the Giants are good lol. +3 is pretty good for a home dog when two teams are pretty even. Wash is +14 and the Giants -29 net yards rushing a game if 65% think the Giants win a game by more than 3 take the dog just on that. Giants shouldn't be favored by 3.5 on the road against anyone if you ask me. Manning overall was decent in the regular season. Last few years garbage. He made hs name in the playoffs on two different runs. Not sure if this is a great play on Washington or a total stay away game JMO

uscmd · Dec 8, 2018

Not suggesting a NYG play. Many other games I prefer.

But NY has won 3 of last 4 and last week beat the bears. Playing better of late. Enough so, that I was just struggling to understand why over a third of the bettors would pick Wash. OBJ's absence is a factor, but its not even changed the line a half point. And Sanchez is an anvil around Wash's neck.

Thanks for your input.

stander · Dec 8, 2018

Adrian Peterson plans to whup Saquan Barkley with a hand-cut switch pre-game. You heard it here first.

Avocado33 · Dec 8, 2018

Played Washington ML

Both of these teams are very bad, and I’m going to take the home team in a battle of bad teams generally. Nothing would really surprise me

bradyisgod · Dec 8, 2018

exploited17 said:
You act like the Giants are good lol. +3 is pretty good for a home dog when two teams are pretty even. Wash is +14 and the Giants -29 net yards rushing a game if 65% think the Giants win a game by more than 3 take the dog just on that. Giants shouldn't be favored by 3.5 on the road against anyone if you ask me. Manning overall was decent in the regular season. Last few years garbage. He made hs name in the playoffs on two different runs. Not sure if this is a great play on Washington or a total stay away game JMO

I agree with the Giants not being good, I don't think he was saying they were good, just that they were the side. I just see better games on the board than needing to reach for this one. This looks like a pass or Giants bet to me.

The biggest factor here and the first thing to check in any handicap is the injury report. The skins have both guards out AND their back-ups. The books see this and this is the reason for the ~5 point adjustment. It's both terrible for a below average quarterback who is pick prone like Sanchez, and more importantly it's very, very bad for any team looking to run the ball (Redskins should be looking to ride Peterson with backup Sanchez in). I get it that Beckham is out but I think a weak o-line + Sanchez is absolutely just a no bet for me (Sanchez alone was and has always been a no bet for me or a fade).

I'm staying away, but lean Giants as USCMD said.

bradyisgod · Dec 8, 2018

StanfordSam said:
Played Washington ML

Both of these teams are very bad, and I’m going to take the home team in a battle of bad teams generally. Nothing would really surprise me

Or just pass when bad teams play eachother and bet some pizza money if you have to have action.

Serbone · Dec 8, 2018

Giants have been playing well but we don’t know if they’ll show up. At some point with teams in this spot, it happens. Sure they’ve rallied last 4 games and played good ball.

Skins are decimated injury wise but are still in the playoff hunt. Sanchez is not as bad as the narrative. Skins might fight to the end but deep in their hearts might know they are doomed and quit.

I’d wait and see how it looks and possibly make an in game wager.

Otherwise, pass.

bradyisgod · Dec 8, 2018

Serbone said:
Giants have been playing well but we don’t know if they’ll show up. At some point with teams in this spot, it happens. Sure they’ve rallied last 4 games and played good ball.

Skins are decimated injury wise but are still in the playoff hunt. Sanchez is not as bad as the narrative. Skins might fight to the end but deep in their hearts might know they are doomed and quit.

I’d wait and see how it looks and possibly make an in game wager.

Otherwise, pass.

Sanchez has a career 1:1 TD to pick ratio, low QBR, and has been on 4 different teams in his last 10 years. There's a reason he's not starting. I don't trust Eli either, but I trust him a lot more than Sanchez. I'm staying away from the game, not sure who wins, but Sanchez is neither a good nor average QB if history is any indicator. It's the NFL so anything can happen, no real strong feeling on either side. Good luck to you guys.

I'm with you on the in-game wager.

Serbone · Dec 8, 2018

I’m not big on Sanchez just saying he isn’t horrible. There are QBs that have started this year that Sanchez is slightly better than. In the right situation he’d do adequately. This is probably not the right situation Skins are decimated and he’s just been on the roster for I think less than 2 weeks.
Pass.
If Giants come out hard, stop the run on D or establish the run on O an early live bet might be wise.

Avocado33 · Dec 8, 2018

bradyisgod said:
Or just pass when bad teams play eachother and bet some pizza money if you have to have action.

That's definitely fair lol

but I think getting Washington at +160 at home against a BAD team is worth the risk IMO

bigwang · Dec 8, 2018

If Giants get Barkley at least 25 touches they win the game and cover.

Sanchez

bones1980 · Dec 8, 2018

Beckham not playing

METFAN · Dec 9, 2018

I think the Giants win..sanchez is horrible. It's been years since he has had a significant game, Washington is missing a ton of offensive linemen and I expect sanchez to have no significant effect. Remember he just signed there and has basically no repore with any of the receivers . the worry is Josh Norman or Ryan Kerrigan make a huge defensive play. Without OBJ look for Manning to go to Barkley early and often. Love his reception total prop

sportsfantatic44 · Dec 9, 2018

I’m a Giants fan. Giants 3 of their wins have been squeakers against 2 backups (Chicago and Tampa) and a 3rd string QB (at San Fran). Eli was terrible for the most part against the Bears D (Giants scored a defensive TD and OBJ threw one for a TD). Skins D is above average and sacked Eli 7 times in the first meeting. This will probably be one ugly game. I wouldn’t feel confident the Giants can cover 3.5 here even with Sanchez.

statman03 · Dec 9, 2018

everybody likes NYG in the Supercontest.......Giants are the 5th most selected and 2d in margin.......while Wash is the 4th least picked....I don't always take the unpopular ones but this is defnitley one of them........they say though to go against the public so who knows ?

skins85 · Dec 9, 2018

Great spot for Washington imo. Giants offensive line still bad and redskins defense should have a good day. Not sure how people all of a sudden go to trusting Eli Manning after the way he started the season. Washington just played 2 tough road games and come home and play a bad team, should get the win even with Sanchez. The public confidence in New York is based solely on Sanchez but they should realize who the giants really are. I think a.redskins and bears ml parlay is tempting today.

stretchrunner147 · Dec 9, 2018

Who the #$@! are the giants to be giving points to anyone on the road? You're asking for trouble.....BOL

bigwang · Dec 9, 2018

Serbone said:
I’m not big on Sanchez just saying he isn’t horrible. There are QBs that have started this year that Sanchez is slightly better than. In the right situation he’d do adequately. This is probably not the right situation Skins are decimated and he’s just been on the roster for I think less than 2 weeks.
Pass.
If Giants come out hard, stop the run on D or establish the run on O an early live bet might be wise.

Please stop posting if you think Sanchez isn’t horrible.

exploited17 · Dec 9, 2018

I was definitely wrong. Glad I didn't take it. I did say they would end up 8-8 when they were 6-4 and lost to Texans. But getting beat down by Giants is ugly