Bowl Trends Only / Add on if you have any that can help ?

Kaboom · Dec 9, 2018

If you don't play or simple don't care ....no comments and move on .... thanks

Teams that lost their previous game by 20 or more points are a play against in Bowl Games ...unless they play each other like S Fla vs Marshall ...

These teams who lost by 20 or more vs the spread are 35 - 48 ATS ... 3-3 ATS in 2017 Bowl Games... 2/3 ATS losses were from Big 10 Teams ... NW and Michigan both No Covers ...fyi

Bunch of teams fall into this spot this year ... It's by far not a say all ... hitting at 58 % winning clip , but it will help in your overall capping .

BC ....lost by 21 ... now play Boise St

Duke ....lost by 52 .... now play Temple

GT ......lost by 24 ....now play Minn ( BIG 10 Team Careful here ...I'm still playing GT , myself )

Pitt .....lost by 32 ....now play Stanford

Michigan ....lost by 23 ....now play Florida

NW .....lost by 21 .....now play Utah

Wisconsin .....lost by 22 ....now play Miami Florida ( in Revenge spot after losing to Wiscy in Bowl Game Last year )

Auburn .....lost by 31 .....now play Purdue ....( BIG 10 Team Careful here )

rolltide · Dec 9, 2018

because what you're presenting is not accurate I'm not just going to "not comment and move on". if you guys are going to publish this stuff as gospel you need to know when it's simply not true. L5 years these teams are 27-23 ATS, L15 years they're 59-54 ATS

p:margin <= -20 and game type = BG and ...

games	ATS W - L- P (marg, %win)	Avg Line	OU W - L- P (marg,%over)	Avg Total	SU W - L- P (marg, %win)	SDQL
0	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	season = 2018
11	2-7-2 (-5.45, 22.2%)	2.7	6-5-0 (6.32, 54.5%)	53.3	2-9-0 (-8.18, 18.2%)	season = 2017
9	4-5-0 (-1.94, 44.4%)	3.4	4-4-1 (-4.78, 50.0%)	55.4	1-8-0 (-5.33, 11.1%)	season = 2016
10	5-5-0 (1.75, 50.0%)	1.2	4-6-0 (-2.80, 40.0%)	53.7	5-5-0 (0.50, 50.0%)	season = 2015
11	8-3-0 (2.23, 72.7%)	0.3	6-4-1 (-0.36, 60.0%)	55.0	8-3-0 (1.91, 72.7%)	season = 2014
11	8-3-0 (6.77, 72.7%)	1.0	3-8-0 (-4.95, 27.3%)	62.8	7-4-0 (5.82, 63.6%)	season = 2013
3	1-2-0 (4.67, 33.3%)	5.3	1-2-0 (-0.33, 33.3%)	61.0	1-2-0 (-0.67, 33.3%)	season = 2012
12	7-5-0 (0.71, 58.3%)	-2.0	3-9-0 (-5.33, 25.0%)	52.7	6-6-0 (2.67, 50.0%)	season = 2011
7	2-5-0 (-13.71, 28.6%)	0.1	5-2-0 (6.36, 71.4%)	55.2	1-6-0 (-13.86, 14.3%)	season = 2010
6	3-3-0 (0.00, 50.0%)	1.5	3-3-0 (-1.33, 50.0%)	52.5	3-3-0 (-1.50, 50.0%)	season = 2009
12	4-8-0 (-0.71, 33.3%)	-0.4	5-7-0 (-5.67, 41.7%)	60.0	5-7-0 (-0.33, 41.7%)	season = 2008
4	3-1-0 (6.50, 75.0%)	0.0	2-2-0 (-4.25, 50.0%)	60.2	2-2-0 (6.50, 50.0%)	season = 2007
3	1-2-0 (-10.17, 33.3%)	6.2	0-3-0 (-2.83, 0.0%)	46.5	0-3-0 (-16.33, 0.0%)	season = 2006
4	3-1-0 (11.12, 75.0%)	1.9	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	2-2-0 (9.25, 50.0%)	season = 2005
5	4-1-0 (4.80, 80.0%)	1.6	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	3-2-0 (3.20, 60.0%)	season = 2004
7	4-3-0 (5.36, 57.1%)	-5.2	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	5-2-0 (10.57, 71.4%)	season = 2003

Kaboom · Dec 9, 2018

Wow ... ok ... sure you are reading my data right , tide ? Much respect for you bro ...

This what Boyd put out last year .... just trying to help ...never mislead ...

[h=2]A Winning College Football Bowl Betting System[/h][FONT=&quot]These numbers are compelling, but not quite worth following blindly. I looked for something to tighten this system up and found a simple yet effective way. Teams that are favored against teams coming off of a blowout loss of 20 or more have gone 45-32 (58.4%) against the spread.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The logic behind this is in two parts. First, if a team is playing against another team that lost by 20 or more points, but the team that didn’t get blown out is an underdog, there is probably a pretty big talent gap between these teams. Using a recent example, Auburn gets blown out in the SEC Championship game, then plays UCF in their bowl game. UCF is a pretty big underdog against Auburn and with good reason.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The second piece of this is simply sticking to fading teams that really got blown out (is a 14-point loss really a “blowout”?). While their seems to be a small advantage in the overall sample with smaller blowouts, once you filter by favorites you want to play against the teams that lost by more than three touchdowns.[/FONT]
[h=2]This Season’s Bowl Teams to Bet On[/h][FONT=&quot]To save you some time, I’ve ID’d the teams this bowl season that fall under this system. Best of luck![/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]

Date	Bowl	Play On	Opponent
12/16/17	New Orleans	Troy -6.5	North Texas
12/26/17	Heart of Dallas	Utah -6.5	West Virginia
12/29/17	Music City	Northwestern -7.5	Kentucky
12/29/17	Belk	Wake Forest -3	Texas A&M
12/30/17	Orange	Wisconsin -6.5	Miami
1/1/18	Outback	Michigan -8	South Carolina

[/FONT]

rolltide · Dec 9, 2018

Kaboom said:
Wow ... ok ... sure you are reading my data right , tide ?

if these are your parameters then it's pretty much 1st grade for SDQL coding class. if there are other parameters to add to it then let me know but merely playing against bowl teams that lost their last game by 20+ will lose you money

"Teams that lost their previous game by 20 or more points are a play against in Bowl Games"

Kaboom · Dec 9, 2018

rolltide said:
if these are your parameters then it's pretty much 1st grade for SDQL coding class. if there are other parameters to add to it then let me know but merely playing against bowl teams that lost their last game by 20+ will lose you money

"Teams that lost their previous game by 20 or more points are a play against in Bowl Games"

Should we ask to take it down ?

Thought the sight I got the info from was legit ....used them many times before ....

Not playing anything from this ... feel like shit now for trying to help people ...

peace

TimmyRules · Dec 9, 2018

I was trying to figure out the difference.

If it was posted last year it would not include the 2-7-2 results.

I can't figure where the 77 games (45-32) come from though...

Kaboom · Dec 9, 2018

Timmy Rules said:
I was trying to figure out the difference.

If it was posted last year it would not include the 2-7-2 results.

I can't figure where the 77 games (45-32) come from though...

Forget it Tim ... I will never post any data again ...trying to help people , yet if it's not a put on the thread a certain way , it's put down as garbage ...

So be it ... end of this thread

Betallsports · Dec 10, 2018

Kaboom said:
Forget it Tim ... I will never post any data again ...trying to help people , yet if it's not a put on the thread a certain way , it's put down as garbage ...

So be it ... end of this thread

Kaboom, I think you are taking it wrong.

Rolltide is probably the Best expert on SDQL I have ever seen.

If you give him the information that you want, he will run it through his database and out pops all the stats

pretty interest stuff ...

NoCoke · Dec 10, 2018

I think RT’s query may be missing “underdog”. The OP doesn’t mention it, but post 3 says “teams that are favored against teams coming off a blowout loss”. That comes back with a 42-52-2 record, so 55.3% record for the favorites. Not sure why there’s a difference in number of games played, but looking at last year alone, Michigan State and N.C. A&T are listed as plays in the query but were not included in the table in post 3. So who knows without seeing the full list from the article.

PS - RT, how are you able to get that table summarizing the years?

Kaboom · Dec 10, 2018

Betallsports said:
Kaboom, I think you are taking it wrong.

Rolltide is probably the Best expert on SDQL I have ever seen.

If you give him the information that you want, he will run it through his database and out pops all the stats

pretty interest stuff ...

I know Tide means well bro .... I understand what you are saying .... moving on ...Thanks !

rolltide · Dec 10, 2018

No Coke said:
I think RT’s query may be missing “underdog”. The OP doesn’t mention it, but post 3 says “teams that are favored against teams coming off a blowout loss”. That comes back with a 42-52-2 record, so 55.3% record for the favorites. Not sure why there’s a difference in number of games played, but looking at last year alone, Michigan State and N.C. A&T are listed as plays in the query but were not included in the table in post 3. So who knows without seeing the full list from the article.

PS - RT, how are you able to get that table summarizing the years?

1) Kaboom, i'm not coming at you at all here. I just have been doing this so long that I wonder how some of this misinformation gets rolling. Definitely not to be taken as a negative and likely is just some parameters not being discussed. Just like the "running dogs" it's all about getting the right information to query as I have many more situations that "running favorites" fit into for bowl games

2) No Coke .... end your query with "and season" and then you can sort by seasons. for example if we are only now looking at DOGS that lost by 20+ you would query the following

p:margin <= -20 and game type = BG and D and season

then just sort by year such as:

0	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	season = 2018
8	2-4-2 (-3.44, 33.3%)	5.9	5-3-0 (7.00, 62.5%)	52.4	1-7-0 (-9.38, 12.5%)	season = 2017
5	3-2-0 (2.90, 60.0%)	9.3	3-1-1 (1.70, 75.0%)	57.1	0-5-0 (-6.40, 0.0%)	season = 2016
5	1-4-0 (-5.40, 20.0%)	6.2	2-3-0 (0.90, 40.0%)	55.5	1-4-0 (-11.60, 20.0%)	season = 2015
5	4-1-0 (2.90, 80.0%)	5.3	3-1-1 (5.40, 75.0%)	51.4	4-1-0 (-2.40, 80.0%)	season = 2014
6	4-2-0 (7.00, 66.7%)	9.0	1-5-0 (-10.25, 16.7%)	63.6	3-3-0 (-2.00, 50.0%)	season = 2013
2	1-1-0 (16.50, 50.0%)	8.0	1-1-0 (6.50, 50.0%)	61.0	1-1-0 (8.50, 50.0%)	season = 2012

in any "system" i always prioritize the ones with little variance. when i see 4-1/4-2/2-4/1-4 i usually toss it...too much variance

Kaboom · Dec 10, 2018

rolltide said:
1) Kaboom, i'm not coming at you at all here. I just have been doing this so long that I wonder how some of this misinformation gets rolling. Definitely not to be taken as a negative and likely is just some parameters not being discussed. Just like the "running dogs" it's all about getting the right information to query as I have many more situations that "running favorites" fit into for bowl games

2) No Coke .... end your query with "and season" and then you can sort by seasons. for example if we are only now looking at DOGS that lost by 20+ you would query the following

p:margin <= -20 and game type = BG and D and season

then just sort by year such as:

0 0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%) - 0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%) - 0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%) season = 2018
8 2-4-2 (-3.44, 33.3%) 5.9 5-3-0 (7.00, 62.5%) 52.4 1-7-0 (-9.38, 12.5%) season = 2017
5 3-2-0 (2.90, 60.0%) 9.3 3-1-1 (1.70, 75.0%) 57.1 0-5-0 (-6.40, 0.0%) season = 2016
5 1-4-0 (-5.40, 20.0%) 6.2 2-3-0 (0.90, 40.0%) 55.5 1-4-0 (-11.60, 20.0%) season = 2015
5 4-1-0 (2.90, 80.0%) 5.3 3-1-1 (5.40, 75.0%) 51.4 4-1-0 (-2.40, 80.0%) season = 2014
6 4-2-0 (7.00, 66.7%) 9.0 1-5-0 (-10.25, 16.7%) 63.6 3-3-0 (-2.00, 50.0%) season = 2013
2 1-1-0 (16.50, 50.0%) 8.0 1-1-0 (6.50, 50.0%) 61.0 1-1-0 (8.50, 50.0%) season = 2012

in any "system" i always prioritize the ones with little variance. when i see 4-1/4-2/2-4/1-4 i usually toss it...too much variance

No hard feelings here Tide ... thanks for clearing that up ...

Can you please tell me step by step how to read your chart ( Outlined in Red ) ... I want to learn , just don't understand how to read it ... Thank you !

Kaboom · Dec 10, 2018

Does Oklahoma Offense run some Triple Option ?

Here are some notes from Citadel game at Bama regarding Triple Option Defense of Bama vs the Triple option offense of Citadel ( who threw 1 pass in the game ) ...

https://www.montgomeryadvertiser.co...p-triple-option-make-extra-points/2002132002/

TimmyRules · Dec 10, 2018

Hey Kbm-if you look at his 1st post , I think those 3 columns are

ATS, O/U, SU

Knightrofins · Dec 10, 2018

Kaboom, i know your LOVE your trends and that you had a great season!!

Do you think a 58% trend is worth playing?

rolltide · Dec 10, 2018

Kaboom said:
No hard feelings here Tide ... thanks for clearing that up ...

Can you please tell me step by step how to read your chart ( Outlined in Red ) ... I want to learn , just don't understand how to read it ... Thank you !

with headings....

p:margin <= -20 and game type = BG and D and ...

games	ATS W - L- P (marg,%win)	Avg Line	OU W - L- P (marg,%over)	Avg Total	SU W - L- P (marg, %win)	SDQL
0	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	season = 2018
8	2-4-2 (-3.44, 33.3%)	5.9	5-3-0 (7.00, 62.5%)	52.4	1-7-0 (-9.38, 12.5%)	season = 2017
5	3-2-0 (2.90, 60.0%)	9.3	3-1-1 (1.70, 75.0%)	57.1	0-5-0 (-6.40, 0.0%)	season = 2016
5	1-4-0 (-5.40, 20.0%)	6.2	2-3-0 (0.90, 40.0%)	55.5	1-4-0 (-11.60, 20.0%)	season = 2015
5	4-1-0 (2.90, 80.0%)	5.3	3-1-1 (5.40, 75.0%)	51.4	4-1-0 (-2.40, 80.0%)	season = 2014
6	4-2-0 (7.00, 66.7%)	9.0	1-5-0 (-10.25, 16.7%)	63.6	3-3-0 (-2.00, 50.0%)	season = 2013
2	1-1-0 (16.50, 50.0%)	8.0	1-1-0 (6.50, 50.0%)	61.0	1-1-0 (8.50, 50.0%)	season = 2012

Kaboom · Dec 10, 2018

rolltide said:
with headings....

p:margin <= -20 and game type = BG and D and ...

games ATS
W - L- P (marg,%win) Avg Line OU
W - L- P (marg,%over) Avg Total SU
W - L- P (marg, %win) SDQL
0 0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%) - 0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%) - 0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%) season = 2018
8 2-4-2 (-3.44, 33.3%) 5.9 5-3-0 (7.00, 62.5%) 52.4 1-7-0 (-9.38, 12.5%) season = 2017
5 3-2-0 (2.90, 60.0%) 9.3 3-1-1 (1.70, 75.0%) 57.1 0-5-0 (-6.40, 0.0%) season = 2016
5 1-4-0 (-5.40, 20.0%) 6.2 2-3-0 (0.90, 40.0%) 55.5 1-4-0 (-11.60, 20.0%) season = 2015
5 4-1-0 (2.90, 80.0%) 5.3 3-1-1 (5.40, 75.0%) 51.4 4-1-0 (-2.40, 80.0%) season = 2014
6 4-2-0 (7.00, 66.7%) 9.0 1-5-0 (-10.25, 16.7%) 63.6 3-3-0 (-2.00, 50.0%) season = 2013
2 1-1-0 (16.50, 50.0%) 8.0 1-1-0 (6.50, 50.0%) 61.0 1-1-0 (8.50, 50.0%) season = 2012

Thanks

Kaboom · Dec 10, 2018

Knightrofins said:
Kaboom, i know your LOVE your trends and that you had a great season!!

Do you think a 58% trend is worth playing?

I would say so bro ... anything over 54 % ...only imo ... is worth playing ...but only if I like the side ... seldom play a game just on a 58% trend ...

Trends are just another tool ... not a say all

Kaboom · Dec 13, 2018

Not sure about sharing what I see online anymore ....if it's true or not is your call .... or maybe rolltide can help to verify ?

That said

Posted 2017

[FONT=&quot]In games with totals of 51 or fewer points, underdogs are [/FONT][FONT=&quot]85-69 (55.2%) ATS[/FONT][FONT=&quot].

If you tailed that trend you would have lost your ass .... Dogs went 3-8 ATS ...so the new record is 88-77 53% Dog Ats Winners .... Not that good anymore ...[/FONT][FONT=&quot].

[/FONT][FONT=&quot]Just thought I would share regardless ...your call[/FONT][FONT=&quot][/FONT]

Kaboom · Dec 13, 2018

Heisman Trophy-winning QBs are 0-7 ATS since 1990 when facing an SEC opponent in a bowl game .... Okla Mayfield lost in OT to Georgia last year ... Ga was - 2 1/2 .....

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