False Favorite System (A.K.A. Fading False Favorites)

sds23

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• Dec 12, 2018

• #1

We can thank Metfan for reminding me about this old system ...


False Favorite System


A very simple system that only activates after ALL “bye weeks” are completed. It works like this: Play any DOG with a better win / loss record than their opponent.


Year To Date Record: 2~1


In week #13 BAL (7~5) was a DOG to ATL (4~8) ...... Result: WIN (ATS & SU)
In week #13 SD (9~3) was a DOG to PIT (7~4~1) .... Result: WIN (ATS & SU)
In week #14 WA (6~7) was a DOG to NYG (5~8) ...... Result: LOSS


Going Forward

I do not know how this system will perform going forward. It’s an old system that seemed to fall apart back when the NFL started increasing the total # of weeks during the season in which byes would occur. (Quick history: Bye weeks were re-introduced in 1990, with a big revision in 1993 and constant tinkering ever since.) Anyway, the system worked great up until the late 1990’s / early 2000’s (if I recall correctly).

Thanks to Metfan, I decided to dust it off and see how it was doing this year. It’s too early to judge, but it appears to be off and running, with its only loss being an injury ravaged WAteam (and likely an easily avoidable play). I’ll be very curious to see how this system does the rest of the season.

 

sds23

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• Dec 12, 2018

• #2

Week #15 Plays

DET (5~8) @ BUF (4~9)
DAL (8~5) @ IND (7~6)
MIA (7~6) @ MIN (6~6~1)
TEN (7~6) @ NYG (5~8)
*WA (6~7) @ JAX (4~9)

*WA is injury ravaged and responsible for the one and only system loss so far.

​Plays On: DET, DAL, MIA, TEN & WA*

 

Biz

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• Dec 13, 2018

• #3

Redskins lost to Eagles as a dog with better record also. Hasn't been a profitable situation at all historically

ATS:	96-108-5 (-0.60, 47.1%)

week >= 13 and D and WP > o:WP and season >= 2005 and ...

games	ATS W - L- P (marg, %win)	Avg Line	OU W - L- P (marg, %over)	Avg Total	SU W - L- P (marg, %win)	SDQL
4	2-2-0 (-3.00, 50.0%)	3.5	2-2-0 (3.75, 50.0%)	46.8	2-2-0 (-6.50, 50.0%)	season = 2018
14	5-8-1 (3.82, 38.5%)	3.2	5-9-0 (-7.82, 35.7%)	44.1	5-9-0 (0.57, 35.7%)	season = 2017
21	7-14-0 (-2.79, 33.3%)	3.8	10-10-1 (-2.31, 50.0%)	45.4	7-14-0 (-6.62, 33.3%)	season = 2016
18	8-9-1 (-1.86, 47.1%)	2.7	9-9-0 (3.17, 50.0%)	44.3	5-13-0 (-4.56, 27.8%)	season = 2015
16	9-7-0 (2.09, 56.2%)	3.6	4-12-0 (-4.50, 25.0%)	44.4	6-10-0 (-1.50, 37.5%)	season = 2014
11	7-4-0 (-0.14, 63.6%)	3.2	6-5-0 (3.64, 54.5%)	45.9	4-7-0 (-3.36, 36.4%)	season = 2013
17	7-10-0 (-1.29, 41.2%)	3.9	8-8-1 (1.47, 50.0%)	44.9	7-10-0 (-5.24, 41.2%)	season = 2012
13	8-4-1 (-2.62, 66.7%)	2.2	7-6-0 (4.12, 53.8%)	41.6	7-6-0 (-4.77, 53.8%)	season = 2011
18	5-13-0 (-3.69, 27.8%)	4.0	8-10-0 (-1.14, 44.4%)	43.0	3-15-0 (-7.67, 16.7%)	season = 2010
13	5-8-0 (-5.04, 38.5%)	4.5	9-4-0 (2.85, 69.2%)	41.3	2-11-0 (-9.54, 15.4%)	season = 2009
17	9-7-1 (-0.47, 56.2%)	3.4	9-8-0 (1.53, 52.9%)	42.9	7-10-0 (-3.82, 41.2%)	season = 2008
13	6-7-0 (-0.27, 46.2%)	3.9	7-6-0 (3.00, 53.8%)	41.0	5-8-0 (-4.15, 38.5%)	season = 2007
16	13-3-0 (10.84, 81.2%)	3.2	8-8-0 (-1.47, 50.0%)	40.7	12-4-0 (7.69, 75.0%)	season = 2006
18	5-12-1 (-4.47, 29.4%)	5.0	7-10-1 (1.00, 41.2%)	39.6	4-14-0 (-9.44, 22.2%)	season = 2005

Showing 1 to 14 of 14 entries

 

Biz

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• Dec 13, 2018

• #4

Pre 2005: ATS:	97-103-4 (-0.57, 48.5%)

Historically its never been profitable. It has had a few random good years.

week >= 13 and D and WP > o:WP and season < 2005 and ...

games	ATS W - L- P (marg, %win)	Avg Line	OU W - L- P (marg, %over)	Avg Total	SU W - L- P (marg, %win)	SDQL
15	6-9-0 (-2.60, 40.0%)	4.3	9-6-0 (2.60, 60.0%)	40.2	5-10-0 (-6.93, 33.3%)	season = 2004
13	6-7-0 (-3.15, 46.2%)	3.2	4-9-0 (-2.00, 30.8%)	41.7	5-8-0 (-6.31, 38.5%)	season = 2003
12	5-6-1 (-0.96, 45.5%)	2.6	4-6-2 (-2.08, 40.0%)	41.5	5-7-0 (-3.58, 41.7%)	season = 2002
14	7-7-0 (-0.71, 50.0%)	2.9	5-9-0 (0.75, 35.7%)	39.9	5-9-0 (-3.64, 35.7%)	season = 2001
16	8-8-0 (3.19, 50.0%)	3.7	7-9-0 (-0.41, 43.8%)	42.5	7-9-0 (-0.50, 43.8%)	season = 2000
10	4-6-0 (-5.30, 40.0%)	2.6	6-4-0 (9.25, 60.0%)	39.2	4-6-0 (-7.90, 40.0%)	season = 1999
12	5-7-0 (1.54, 41.7%)	2.6	4-8-0 (-4.12, 33.3%)	41.0	4-8-0 (-1.08, 33.3%)	season = 1998
16	10-5-1 (1.19, 66.7%)	3.9	7-9-0 (-1.69, 43.8%)	40.9	6-9-1 (-2.69, 40.0%)	season = 1997
16	7-9-0 (-1.62, 43.8%)	4.0	9-6-1 (0.62, 60.0%)	40.5	7-9-0 (-5.62, 43.8%)	season = 1996
11	4-6-1 (0.41, 40.0%)	4.3	4-6-1 (0.41, 40.0%)	43.0	2-9-0 (-3.91, 18.2%)	season = 1995
14	10-4-0 (2.75, 71.4%)	2.8	9-5-0 (8.32, 64.3%)	36.7	9-5-0 (0.00, 64.3%)	season = 1994
16	9-6-1 (-0.50, 60.0%)	3.9	7-8-1 (1.34, 46.7%)	35.1	8-8-0 (-4.44, 50.0%)	season = 1993
8	4-4-0 (0.31, 50.0%)	3.7	2-6-0 (-7.12, 25.0%)	37.2	3-5-0 (-3.38, 37.5%)	season = 1992
10	5-5-0 (-1.20, 50.0%)	3.5	6-3-1 (4.10, 66.7%)	37.4	4-6-0 (-4.70, 40.0%)	season = 1991
15	5-10-0 (-2.50, 33.3%)	3.4	4-11-0 (-3.27, 26.7%)	38.3	4-11-0 (-5.87, 26.7%)	season = 1990
6	2-4-0 (-2.00, 33.3%)	2.5	4-2-0 (7.75, 66.7%)	39.1	2-4-0 (-4.50, 33.3%)	season = 1989

 

sds23

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• Dec 15, 2018

• #5

Thanks for the historical perspective Biz. Those numbers are pretty brutal. I’m scratching my head a bit as to why this system was ever a “thing” back in the 1990’s. Back then you heard of something, watched it, and played it for the weeks or years that it was doing well ... and then threw it by the wayside when it wasn’t performing.

I do recall that it only officially kicked into play after the “bye” weeks were over ... and of course the exact week that “bye” weeks are over seemed to change every three years or so, depending on the latest tinkering by the NFL. But I’m sure that getting the exact correct week for each and every season wouldn’t do enough to impact those stats greatly.

I was looking through old notebooks (to no avail) to see if I was missing something in regard to another “caveat” or “criteria” for this system. Couldn’t find anything to clarify the situation. Oh-well, as long as I have it here, all I can do is watch and see how it happens to perform this season. We had similar initial reservations about my “Road Wreck System” after seeing back history, and that’s proven to be quite the little win producer so far.

Thanks again for the stats. BOL with all your action Biz.

 

Biz

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• Dec 15, 2018

• #6

No problem sir. GL to you as well.

 

sds23

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• Dec 16, 2018

• #7

sds23 said:

Week #15 Plays

DET (5~8) @ BUF (4~9) WIN
DAL (8~5) @ IND (7~6) LOSS
MIA (7~6) @ MIN (6~6~1) LOSS
TEN (7~6) @ NYG (5~8) WIN
*WA (6~7) @ JAX (4~9) WIN

*WA is injury ravaged and responsible for the one and only system loss so far.

​Plays On: DET, DAL, MIA, TEN & WA*

Click to expand...

Week #15 Record: 3~2

 

sds23

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• Dec 20, 2018

• #8

False Favorite System Record: 5~3

Week #16 Plays

HOU (10~4) @ PHI (7~7)
ATL (5~9) @ CAR (6~8)


​(Plays on HOU & CAR)

 

cruisin

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• Dec 20, 2018

• #9

Have a hard time playing Carolina without Cam, but he hasn't been good either..........

 

sds23

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• Dec 21, 2018

• #10

cruisin said:

Have a hard time playing Carolina without Cam, but he hasn't been good either..........

Click to expand...

LOL ~ I totally agree with both parts of that statement.

 

Haystacks

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• Dec 21, 2018

• #11

cruisin said:

Have a hard time playing Carolina without Cam, but he hasn't been good either..........

Click to expand...

He couldn't throw it 35 yards on a Hail Mary a couple of weeks ago . If you don't have to defend the deep ball, it makes Carolina easy to stop.