Betting guide for Chargers-Chiefs

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[h=1]Betting guide for Chargers-Chiefs[/h]
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Where does the betting value lie in Thursday night's matchup between the Chargers and Chiefs? Warren Sharp and Mike Clay provide their picks to help you place your bets.


Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.

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[h=3]Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5)[/h]Total: 53
PickCenter public consensus pick: 51 percent picked Kansas City
Sharp: There are too many matchup edges favoring the Chiefs to overlook, and they inevitably put me on Patrick Mahomes, along with the public. The Chargers have had the good fortune of playing the Bengals with a backup QB, the Steelers with a backup RB and the terrible Cardinals in their last three games -- all wins. However, defensively, the Chargers are without DTs Corey Liuget and Brandon Mebane and MLB Denzel Perryman. These players are irreplaceable in terms of stopping the run.


It's likely Melvin Gordon is out and the backups for both teams are out as well (Austin Ekeler, Spencer Ware). I prefer the remaining RB situation better for the Chiefs. Kansas City has a pass defense that ranks No. 15 (and now gets back the services of SS Eric Berry), but the Chiefs' No. 32 run defense has been their Achilles' heel. With the RB limitations for the Chargers, they won't be able to take advantage of this huge weakness of the Chiefs' defense.


The Chiefs have the better passing offense, and as long as Tyreek Hill can play most of the game, it will be hard to envision the Chiefs and Andy Reid not continuing their successful roll against the Chargers. Since coming to Kansas City, Reid is 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS when facing the Chargers. In the last four meeting between these sides, the score entering the fourth quarter has been, on average, 26-13 in favor of the Chiefs.


Lean: Chiefs -3


Johnson: The Chiefs opened 3-point favorites for their Thursday night extravaganza against the Chargers. I have been pro-Chargers for the last month -- and I'm sure that they would like to avenge their home loss to Kansas City in the season-opener -- but the move up to -3.5 or -4 I believe was warranted. My projection is Kansas City -3.9 without Gordon on hand for Los Angeles, so I won't likely be betting this game.


The most intriguing part of this specific matchup to me is that the strength of the Chargers' defense is against the pass. Mahomes should be able do his thing to a certain extent, but Kansas City's ability to attack Los Angeles' weakness against the run I think will be the difference in the game. It's too early to tell how impactful Hunt's absence will ultimately be, but the Chiefs gained only 3.5 yards per rushing attempt in Week 14 against the Ravens. I know that Baltimore has a fantastic defense, but the week prior Ware and Williams gained only 4.4 YPA against the Raiders.


I'll be watching to see how effective the Kansas City rushing attack is from the get-go, and it may give us an opportunity to make an in-game wager accordingly.


Pick: Pass

[h=2]Prop bets[/h]
Clay: Will Keenan Allen score a touchdown? Yes (E)/No (-120)


Nothing really stood out this week. However, if you woke up feeling dangerous, consider going to the Keenan Allen well. Philip Rivers' top target has scored in five straight games. His expected touchdown total (OTD) during that stretch sits at 2.9, which tells us that he's playing a bit over his head, although he also has a league-high six end zone targets over this span. The Chargers have obviously made a concerted effort to get him the ball in the end zone, and the Chiefs' defense is allowing 3.1 touchdowns per game (fifth-most in the NFL). This is a riskier pick than usual, but it is attractive at even money.


The pick: Yes
 

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