Saturday 12/22/2018 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Requests Etc

Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Chargers Preview and Predictions 2018-12-22
NFL PREDICTIONS 19TH DECEMBER 2018 BY GRACENOTE


The Los Angeles Chargers have already clinched a spot in the postseason but they have loftier goals in mind -- namely, the chance to secure the top overall seed and earn home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Chargers still have to overtake division rival Kansas City but cannot afford a misstep against the visiting Baltimore Ravens on Saturday night.


Los Angeles punched its ticket to the playoffs in dramatic fashion, erasing a two-touchdown deficit in the final four minutes for a 29-28 road win over the Chiefs (as a +4 point underdog at intertops). Quarterback Philip Rivers, one of an NFL-high seven Pro Bowl selections for the Chargers, said his team faces a "heck of a challenge" against the top-ranked defense of the Ravens, who hold the tiebreaker over two other teams for the second wild card in the AFC. Baltimore has won four of five since rookie Lamar Jackson took over as the starting quarterback -- the only loss coming in overtime at Kansas City -- but the Ravens know what they are up against in Rivers and Co. "Philip is probably one of the smartest, if not -- he's right in the category with the top two or three guys (in terms of) dissecting the defense, playing the chess game," Baltimore coach John Harbaugh said of Rivers. "He really finds the weakness and he's not afraid to take chances."


TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network. LINE: Chargers -4.5 O/U: 43.5


ABOUT THE RAVENS (8-6): Jackson has yet to throw for more than 178 yards in either of his five starts but he has double-digit rushes in each one to help Baltimore become the first team since the Pittsburgh Steelers in 1976 to rush for at least 190 yards in five consecutive games. Rookie Gus Jackson had 15 carries on the season until Jackson moved into the starting lineup but has led the punishing ground game with three 100-yard performances during the 4-1 run. Willie Snead has emerged as Jackson's favorite target with five catches in three of the past five contests, but the defense will be in the spotlight Sunday. The Ravens lead the league in fewest points (18.1) and fewest overall yards (290.2) and are third against the pass (202.6).

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (11-3): Los Angeles made it four straight wins and 10 of 11 despite an injury to top receiver Keenan Allen and the absence of top running backs Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler. Gordon, expected to return to the lineup after sitting out the past three games due to a sprained MCL, has rushed for 802 yards and nine touchdowns while snagging 44 receptions for four more scores. Allen is looming as a game-time decision, but 2017 first-round pick Mike Williams scored three touchdowns on a season-high seven receptions against Kansas City to earn AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors. While Rivers is having an MVP season with 31 touchdowns and eight interceptions, the ninth-ranked run defense (103.7) yards will have to contain Jackson.


EXTRA POINTS


1. Rivers has passed for 2,199 yards with 16 TDs in seven home games this season.


2. Jackson has rushed for at least 65 yards in each of his five starts.


3. Chargers Pro Bowl DE Melvin Ingram needs three sacks to reach double digits for the third time in four seasons.


PREDICTION: Chargers 26, Ravens 22

Washington Redskins vs. Tennessee Titans Preview and Predictions 2018-12-22
NFL PREDICTIONS 19TH DECEMBER 2018 BY GRACENOTE


The Tennessee Titans have thrust themselves back in the mix for a postseason berth on the strength of a three-game winning streak. The Titans vie for a clean sweep of the NFC East representatives on Saturday when they host the Washington Redskins at Nissan Stadium.


Bruising running back Derrick Henry followed up a franchise-best 238-yard, four-touchdown performance in Tennessee's 30-9 win over Jacksonville on Dec. 6 by recording a career-high 33 carries for 170 yards and two scores in Sunday's 17-0 victory over the New York Giants (as a -2.5 point favorite at intertops). Henry broke fellow former Heisman Trophy winner Earl Campbell's previous franchise-best two-game benchmark of 405 yards and has an NFL-best 11 touchdowns in his last eight contests. The Titans defense has permitted its foes to convert 5-of-28 third-down attempts over the last two weeks heading into a tilt with Washington, which has overcome a litany of serious injuries to remain in contention for an NFC postseason berth. "You would think we'd be out of the whole thing the way everything's been going, week in and week out," cornerback Josh Norman said. "Oh my gosh, this is like a circus. But at the same time, all that doesn't matter. We are still in this thing."


TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, NFL Network. LINE: Titans -10 O/U: 37


ABOUT THE REDSKINS (7-7): Making his first NFL start in seven years, journeyman quarterback Josh Johnson engineered a pair of scoring drives in the fourth quarter to help Washington snap a four-game skid with a 16-13 win over Jacksonville on Sunday. The 32-year-old earned another game under center after passing for 151 yards and a score and scampering for 49 more for the Redskins, who likely will lean on the ageless Adrian Peterson against Tennessee's 12th-ranked rush defense. Jordan Reed's availability is in question after he missed last week's win over the Jaguars due to foot and toe injuries. Fellow tight end Jeremy Sprinkle caught all three passes that came his way -- including a 6-yard toss for a touchdown.

ABOUT THE TITANS (8-6): Henry's success on the ground can be traced to the determined effort of an offensive line that is led by tackle Taylor Lewan, who was selected to his third consecutive Pro Bowl this week. Marcus Mariota has benefited by extension, and the quarterback admitted that he's pleased with the team's potent ground attack. "I'm the No. 1 fan," the 25-year-old Mariota said. "... For me, I am all about it. We have to continue to do that. I think it really helps us get into situations where we get in a rhythm, we can do different things. So I love it." Mariota's primary target in the passing game continues to be Corey Davis, who has reeled in a touchdown pass in two of his last three home outings.


EXTRA POINTS


1. Washington LB Ryan Kerrigan, who had two of his team-leading 11 sacks last week, joined OT Trent Williams in being selected to the Pro Bowl.


2. Tennessee DT Jurrell Casey is heading to the Pro Bowl after collecting a team-best seven sacks this season.


3. Redskins WR Jamison Crowder led the team with four catches for 46 yards last week.


PREDICTION: Titans 19, Redskins 14

Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers (-5)

Los Angeles is in the prime-time spotlight for a second straight week, this time on Saturday, after a surprising comeback victory in the Week 15 Thursday nighter. The Chargers (11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS) rallied from a 28-14 fourth-quarter deficit, scoring a touchdown in the waning seconds, then getting a successful 2-point conversion to win 29-28.

Baltimore won four of its last five to gain ground on Pittsburgh and make things interesting in the AFC North. In Week 15, the Ravens (8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS) topped Tampa Bay 20-12, falling just short of cashing as 8.5-point home favorites.

“Both teams are in the thick of the AFC playoff race,” Murray said. “The Chargers are coming off a great win at Kansas City and can still secure home-field advantage in the AFC Playoffs. This is exactly the kind of game the Chargers have historically lost with Philip Rivers at quarterback.”

Although this line dipped to Chargers -4.5 shortly after opening, Murray said The SuperBook was moving with the market, not on money.

Washington Redskins at Tennessee Titans (-10)

Despite working with its fourth starting quarterback this season in Josh Johnson, Washington is currently just a game out of the NFC playoff picture. The Redskins (7-7 SU, 8-6 ATS) rallied in the fourth quarter to beat Jacksonville 16-13 as 7.5-point road pups in Week 15.

Tennessee is still in the postseason hunt, too, though like Washington is on the outside looking in. The Titans (8-6 SU and ATS) blanked the New York Giants 17-0 laying 2.5 points on the road in Week 15.

“We saw money come in right away on the Titans -10, and I cans see why,” Murray said, though he added it wasn’t enough to move off the opening number. “It’s hard to picture the Redskins’ offense with Josh Johnson at QB putting up points on the road against the Titans. Both teams are technically still in the playoff race. Expect a lot of moneyline parlays to start with Tennessee this week.”

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 16

Saturday, December 22

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WASHINGTON (7 - 7) at TENNESSEE (8 - 6) - 12/22/2018, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 53-28 ATS (+22.2 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 31-54 ATS (-28.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BALTIMORE (8 - 6) at LA CHARGERS (11 - 3) - 12/22/2018, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 18-35 ATS (-20.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

NFL

Week 16

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Trend Report
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Saturday, December 22

Washington Redskins
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Washington's last 18 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games on the road
Washington is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Tennessee is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Tennessee is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Washington

Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Baltimore's last 12 games
Baltimore is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Baltimore is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games on the road
Baltimore is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Chargers
Baltimore is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing LA Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
LA Chargers is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
LA Chargers is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
LA Chargers is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games at home
LA Chargers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
LA Chargers is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 6 games when playing Baltimore

NFL
Dunkel

Week 16


Saturday, December 22

Washington @ Tennessee

Game 107-108
December 22, 2018 @ 4:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
127.134
Tennessee
135.122
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 8
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 10
37
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+10); Over

Baltimore @ LA Chargers

Game 123-124
December 22, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
130.534
LA Chargers
143.002
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Chargers
by 12 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 4
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Chargers
(-4); Under

Washington Redskins at Tennessee Titans (-10, 37)

The Titans opened as 10-point favorites at all shops except for Caesars/Harrah's, which opened Tennessee at -9 1/2. However, after just a few minutes that was bet up to 10 to get in line with everyone else. There hasn't been a lot of movement on the total yet, but with QB Josh Johnson making his second straight start there isn't a lot of faith that this will be a high-scoring affair.

Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers (OFF)

The Ravens heads into this game with a 7-3-1 ATS mark over their past 11 road games, but they're just 1-4 ATS in the past five against teams with a winning mark. The Bolts are coming off a huge win in Kansas City last Thursday, and they're 5-2 ATS in the past seven against winning teams. They have a lot of play for, as a potential first-round bye, and even the overall top seed in the AFC is still on the table.

GORDON ON TRACK

L.A. Chargers coach Anthony Lynn hinted that Melvin Gordon would be ready to return on Saturday as the Chargers host the Ravens. “If we would have played that game on Sunday, he probably would have played," Lynn told the media on Monday.

NFL's Top ATS Teams (based on cover %):

t1. Bears 10-4 ATS
t1. Saints 10-4 ATS
3. Seahawks 8-4-2 ATS
4. Browns 9-5 ATS
5. Chiefs 8-5-1 ATS
t6. 7 teams tied at 8-6 ATS (Chargers, Pats, Cowboys, Titans, Dolphins, Redskins, Lions)

NFL's Top OVER Teams (based on Over %):

1. Chiefs 9-4-1
2. Jets 9-5
3. Bengals 8-5-1
t4. Falcons 8-6
t4. Bears 8-6
t4. Chargers 8-6
t4. 49ers 8-6
t4. Bucs 8-6

NFL's Top UNDER Teams (based on Under %):

1. Broncos 10-3-1
t2. Patriots 9-5
t2. Saints 9-5
t4. 13 teams tied at 8-6 (Cardinals, Ravens, Bills, Browns, Cowboys, Lions, Texans, Colts, Jags, Vikings, Eagles, Titans, Redskins)

Baltimore Ravens (+4½ -105) at Los Angeles Chargers (-4½ -115)

For a moment last Sunday, the Baltimore Ravens were sitting on top of the NFC North and in prime playoff position, but by the time this game rolls around on Saturday, they may well find themselves below the playoff line if Tennessee beats Washington in the earlier game. The bad news for Baltimore is that they are on the road to a Chargers team that still has a clear shot at a first round bye, so they can expect no favors from their hosts in this one. The Chargers are 5-2 at home, while the Ravens have a losing road record, all of which adds up to a win for LA.

Reports on Thursday morning are that Keenan Allen is expected to return to the lineup on Saturday night as the Chargers host the Ravens. He has been trending in that direction after a limited practice session on Wednesday. Assuming he suits up in Week 16, Allen will have not missed any games, even though he was knocked out of the Chargers’ last contest in the first quarter.

Allen will return to a very difficult matchup against a Baltimore defense ranked second in passing DVOA. They were eaten up for 121 yards by Mike Evans last week, but digging a bit deeper we see that 64 of those yards came on one big play and that Evans only hauled in 4-of-9 targets. There’s also the fact that he won’t be at 100 percent and an awkward fall on his hip could cause him a few snaps or even get him shut down once again.

There’s no denying that Allen has been one of the hottest wide receivers in football, averaging 7.8 catches for 94.6 yards per game since L.A.’s bye in Week 8 if you don’t include Week 15 where he exited very early on. This is looking like a situation to avoid for Week 16 until we get a better sense of just how healthy (or hurt) Allen is.

Saturday, 22 December 2018 • 01:30 PM
107 WASHINGTON @ 108 TENNESSEE
Play on TENNESSEE using the money line in All games against NFC East division opponents
The record is 19 Wins and 8 since 1992 (+20.2 units)