Teams winning after the 1Q win the game S/U. Something I realized midway through the season and started tracking. Today teams winning after the 1Q won the game S/U went 10-1 with the only loss coming in the Falcons/Bucs game when the Falcons kicked a last second FG with 3 seconds on the clock to win the game by 2. Now, ofcourse to follow and get this angle you have to have the "live bet" option and you also have to have a nice bankroll to work with because if you are betting the team that is winning after the first Q on the ML it comes with a hefty amount of juice and in order to win any money you have to bet a good cpl or more hundreds. Or you could bet ATS on teams winning after the 1Q. I can't tell you how well that did bc I don't have all the end of 1Q live lines. On the flipside, in a game like GB/DET or MINNY/CHI where the fav or 6 or more was down by 7 after the 1Q, you get a pretty decent ML normally at very close to even money, maybe -150 at the highest. Both of those games the underdog won SU. Just something I wanted to share. Do with it as you wish.
Hate to rain on your parade but you are gonna need a lot more samples than 11 games. Instead of filtering for the past 11 games filter for the past 5 or 10 years. I'm all for sharing information and talking football trends, just be careful on taking these to the bank when the sample size is low for anybody who follows it. Sure, it could work out for the next season or so, but how will it work out year after year? It's something to look out for, just make sure you check out the past few years at the minimum. In general I would think that a team that has a lead would just be more likely to win the game (because of the lead). I'm also sure the books take this into account when setting the lines and add or subtract points accordingly.
You've had a great season this year. Cheers on that! Best of luck going forward.
You've had a great season this year. Cheers on that! Best of luck going forward.
Means nothing. It is no different than betting ML. Just like most ML wins you cant just bet ML and win. If a teams is a 4 point favorite and -200 on the ML and they get out to a 7-0 lead after 1 the line is adjusted as if they are an 11 point or more favorite as the game is 1 quarter in . So, the ML is probably like -700 to win su. Past 47 games teams are 47-12 su after leading 1st. Didn't feel like digging deeper. Doesn't matter since as I said no different than betting ML. Just pick your spots live betting period
I've been tracking this all season. Teams after 1Q when leading, are around 80% to win the game. I've used it many of times when a 7 pt or more underdog is up by 3 after the 1Q and you still get them at + money to win SU. Any underdog of 7 or more leading after the firstQ by 7 or less is 90% of the time even money.
Today's Dal/Giants game was a perfect example and I won money on it. The giants closed the line as 7.5 pt favorites. They were -5000 on the ML before the game. Although the 1Q was scoreless. Early in the 2Q the cowboys scored a TD. During the commercial break the Cowboys were -135 to win the Game. I took it, Cowboys won 36-35
Speaking of half time bets. In most cases if you bet the team that is winning ATS at the half, the bet usually wins. Juice is usually lower on the team covering at the half because the losing team is usually heavy bet on again and the losers are looking to win the bet back in the second half.
FWIW
FWIW
