NFL Playoff Talk

Kaboom · Dec 31, 2018

Not a Big NFL guy ...but here's something I looked at ...

Defensive Yards Rushing to opposing Quarterbacks ....

Jacksonville ...last in the NFL giving up 471 Yards to QB's on the ground ...Houston QB Watson had 66 Yards Rushing vs the Jags ...

next up for Houston and QB Watson .... Indy

Indy is # 6 in the NFL in Defensive Yards Rushing to Quarterbacks ....big difference than the Jags ...giving up only 182 Yards Rushing to QB'S on the year ...

Feel this might be a nice under the radar angle when capping the game ...

Leaning Indy myself .... but again I suck at the NFL ...but not playoff time ...LOL !!!

Thoughts ?

Loves2kickass · Dec 31, 2018

Baltimore!

Enough said

Haute-Savoie · Dec 31, 2018

texans are ranked 28th vs the pass. Luck should have a fairly easy time putting up points. I just dont' trust watson's abilities to throw td's...

Kaboom · Jan 1, 2019

I really hesitate to post trends anymore because the stuff u find on the web is all bullshit according to a few guys in here ....but what the hell ... LOL !

There has NEVER been a Super Champ that has given up more than 376 yards per game on Defense !!!

This Year

KC .... 406 yards per Game given up on Defense .....????

Kaboom · Jan 1, 2019

Top Defense ( Baltimore this year ) have reached the SB 11 times with a 8-3 SU record

Team that has given up the fewest points per game average ( This year Chicago ) ...has reached the SB 18 times ... Record is 13-5 !

21/48 or 44% SB Champs allowed 30 or less sacks in year ....

Last year Philly allowed 36 Sacks ....

This years teams that have allowed 30 sacks or less this year

KC 26

NE 21

NO 20

Ind 18 ..........I remember a year or 2 ago this team could not protect Luck , period ....

Teams between 30 and 36 sacks allowed this year

Chg 33

La Rams 33

Balt 32

mickj · Jan 2, 2019

Has the Ravens sacks allowed gone down since Jackson started?

WinnersareGrinners · Jan 2, 2019

Hard to quantify but there’s something to be said forgetting hot at the right time, can remember Green Bay and NYG both going intothe playoffs smoking and going all the way even though they had struggled atvarious stages.

Chicago certainly look hot to me, Indy might be the best ofthe long shots….my issue with Baltimore is I still don’t trust Jackson to makeenough throws in crunch time and there are teams he will have to do thisbecause I don’t think their D is dominant enough to let them win a playoff gameon the road 17-16, at least the Bears do have a passing game in Mitch we trustlol!

Kaboom · Jan 2, 2019

When Top Seeds meet in the Super Bowl from both conferences the Over is 6-3 !! Last Year ...Philly / NE both Top Seeds ....Game went over .... fyi

Kaboom · Jan 2, 2019

mickj said:
Has the Ravens sacks allowed gone down since Jackson started?

Very solid point bro .... you know I've seen Jackson being interviewed after games in which his team won and he fumbled in the game .... He says he has to fix that with a smile on his face ....like oh well ...yes I do that , from time to time ...

This kid is talented but not mature enough to lead a team to a Super Bowl . His pocket presence is pretty bad, unless he's moving around ... Teams will figure him out ....

wizard1183 · Jan 2, 2019

Kaboom said:
Very solid point bro .... you know I've seen Jackson being interviewed after games in which his team won and he fumbled in the game .... He says he has to fix that with a smile on his face ....like oh well ...yes I do that , from time to time ...

This kid is talented but not mature enough to lead a team to a Super Bowl . His pocket presence is pretty bad, unless he's moving around ... Teams will figure him out ....

I just don't see him as the face to the Ravens success now or in the future. It's possible he wins this round though? I'm waiting til gameday before I can make a decision as to which side I'd choose however I lean Chargers

Kaboom · Jan 2, 2019

wizard1183 said:
I just don't see him as the face to the Ravens success now or in the future. It's possible he wins this round though? I'm waiting til gameday before I can make a decision as to which side I'd choose however I lean Chargers

Lean Chargers too .... you never know with Jackson ....jury is still out if he can play at this level or not ....Needs a lot of improvement though , I would say ...

wizard1183 · Jan 2, 2019

Kaboom said:
Lean Chargers too .... you never know with Jackson ....jury is still out if he can play at this level or not ....Needs a lot of improvement though , I would say ...

I’ll go ahead and say it for you. No. He cannot. Just like next yr Mahomes will fail to hit the over on season wins...

Serbone · Jan 2, 2019

Lines almost always make sense to me when I first see them, but the Dallas line - 1.5 just does not add up. IMO Dallas should be -5, - 5.5, or even - 6. I realize that the bettors would probably jump on the +6.

I keep wanting to make an early wager on them but then I realize something must be wrong with my perception.

I do not want to hear BS like Seattle has beat Dallas the last few meetings or something, this Dallas team is well rounded now, even since their first meeting this year they have improved, jelled.

Sure, I worry about the Dallas OL being a bit dinged up but wow what a defense, they should be able to bother Wilson, Seattle OL is below par, and the Dallas offense can run the ball, they found a TE it seems, Cooper has opened up their passing game and made it credible, but yes... Dak is always a concern. Seattle, on the road, is technically the favorite with the 3-4 point home field spread. Seattle, better coach. Seattle better QB.

But if kickoff was in 5 minutes, I would go Dallas, at home, BIG.

Any ideas?

(I lean to Indy and Balty, Bears-Philly I see little value at this point, Bears were IDIOTS to play hard vs Vikes and bring in a hot Philly team, and WR Miller got hurt might be NA)

Loves2kickass · Jan 2, 2019

mickj said:
Has the Ravens sacks allowed gone down since Jackson started?

Jackson has been sacked 15 times in 7 games and the Ravens are 6-1 with him as the starter. The Ravens are averaging 26 ppg in Jackson's 7 starts

wizard1183 · Jan 2, 2019

Serbone said:
Lines almost always make sense to me when I first see them, but the Dallas line - 1.5 just does not add up. IMO Dallas should be -5, - 5.5, or even - 6. I realize that the bettors would probably jump on the +6.

I keep wanting to make an early wager on them but then I realize something must be wrong with my perception.

I do not want to hear BS like Seattle has beat Dallas the last few meetings or something, this Dallas team is well rounded now, even since their first meeting this year they have improved, jelled.

Sure, I worry about the Dallas OL being a bit dinged up but wow what a defense, they should be able to bother Wilson, Seattle OL is below par, and the Dallas offense can run the ball, they found a TE it seems, Cooper has opened up their passing game and made it credible, but yes... Dak is always a concern. Seattle, on the road, is technically the favorite with the 3-4 point home field spread. Seattle, better coach. Seattle better QB.

But if kickoff was in 5 minutes, I would go Dallas, at home, BIG.

Any ideas?

(I lean to Indy and Balty, Bears-Philly I see little value at this point, Bears were IDIOTS to play hard vs Vikes and bring in a hot Philly team, and WR Miller got hurt might be NA)

I absolutely agree with the Dallas play. Seattle cakewalked into the playoffs and only beat the lowest of low in teams. Now granted Cowboys haven't exactly lit up the scoreboard amongst the elite. Though they did beat the Saints which says at least SOMETHING about their defense.

Scenario: Joe public chooses the poster child. That poster child is Wilson since he and old Petey have been doing the playoff dance a few times while Dak has played some subpar ball. They look at Dak and say that clown who's a poor excuse fo a QB can't possibly win here even at home. Seahawks are the public Fav here thus the line move.

Dallas has the better Defense, they've played the tougher schedule, and from Sept to now, their ranking on strength of schedule hangs around 12th while Seattle hangs around 18th.

Seattle is done....put a fork in em

wizard1183 · Jan 2, 2019

every game hes played he's yet to trail. A rookie who's never trailed has the experience to overcome adversity? Hes going to find out what its like to fail. to fail a team. HIS team...

Loves2kickass · Jan 2, 2019

wizard1183 said:
every game hes played he's yet to trail. A rookie who's never trailed has the experience to overcome adversity? Hes going to find out what its like to fail. to fail a team. HIS team...

Another non believer

powerz · Jan 2, 2019

Sagarin Rankings SOS

Dallas #11 Seattle #25
Colts #32 Texans #29
Ravens #19 Chargers #24
Bears #31 Eagles #15

Sagarin VS top 10

Dallas 3-1 Seattle 1-4
Colts 0-2 Texans 0-2...keep this in mind for next round
Ravens 2-3 Chargers 3-3
Bears 2-1 Eagles 1-1

Sagarin Hot or Not

Dallas +1 Seattle +.4
Colts +4 Texans +1
Ravens +1.1 Chargers 0
Bears +2.4 Eagles +.4

3pointdog · Jan 2, 2019

powerz said:
Sagarin Rankings SOS

Dallas #11 Seattle #25
Colts #32 Texans #29
Ravens #19 Chargers #24
Bears #31 Eagles #15

Sagarin VS top 10

Dallas 3-1 Seattle 1-4
Colts 0-2 Texans 0-2...keep this in mind for next round
Ravens 2-3 Chargers 3-3
Bears 2-1 Eagles 1-1

Sagarin Hot or Not

Dallas +1 Seattle +.4
Colts +4 Texans +1
Ravens +1.1 Chargers 0
Bears +2.4 Eagles +.4

Heard something very interesting this morning on the radio...

Games where there is a difference of at least 10 in this rating (Dallas game and Phili game) are 41-17 ATS ... just passing it on for what its worth.. I do like Dallas and Phili this weekend...

Serbone · Jan 2, 2019

3pointdog said:
Heard something very interesting this morning on the radio...

Games where there is a difference of at least 10 in this rating (Dallas game and Phili game) are 41-17 ATS ... just passing it on for what its worth.. I do like Dallas and Phili this weekend...

Yes.
It is a good tool.
Not to be used in itself but it matters in these two situations spread wise: since Dallas is at home small spread, and yes Philly on the road getting 6.
Good to look at last 3-6 games too as teams jell or falter who they played.

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