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Thread: Lucky Sharp [January NHL]

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  1. #1 Lucky Sharp [January NHL] 
    RX Junior
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    Hey guys,

    New poster here, who has been betting on sports for over fifteen years. I have been wanting to join and post my picks for months now but I am a very disciplined handicapper who follows strict money management and who sets goals for each year - so I felt it was best that I hold off until the New Year. I'm happy to be here and i'm looking forward to getting to know all of you in this upcoming year.


    2019 Plan:

    The goal, every year, is to win 55% of our wagers at -110 odds in an effort to double our starting bankroll.

    Starting Bankroll = $5,000
    Expected Profit = $5,000
    Finishing Bankroll = $10,000

    All wagers are to win 3% of our starting bankroll / therefore $150.

    If you choose to follow, please note that you can use a larger or smaller bankroll, as it fits your financial needs. Simply divide your starting bankroll by 33.3 to determine how much you should be betting to win on each wager. Ie. With a $1,000 starting bankroll, you would be betting to win $30 on each wager as 1000/33.3 = 30.

    What to expect?
    Regular Season:
    Projected Wagers = 500 / Projected Win % = 55% at -110 odds / Projected Profit = +82.5 units or +$4,125
    ∑ NBA = 150 (6 per week, Monday-Saturday, skipping a week)
    ∑ NHL = 150 (6 per week, Monday-Saturday, skipping a week)
    ∑ MLB = 150 (6 per week, Monday-Saturday, skipping a week)
    ∑ NFL = 50 (3 per week, 2 in week 17)

    Systems / Tournaments / Playoffs
    Projected Wagers = 100 / Projected Win % = 55% at -110 odds / Projected Profit = +17.25 units or +$825 units

    ∑ MLB Systems = 55 wagers (approx.)
    ∑ NCAA March Madness = 10 wagers
    ∑ NCAA Bowl Games = 5 wagers
    ∑ NBA = 10 wagers
    ∑ NHL = 10 wagers
    ∑ MLB = 5 wagers
    ∑ NFL Playoffs = 5 wagers

    Each week, on Sunday, Iíll do a recap of the past weeks results and a preview of what to expect in the upcoming week (number of picks + goal for the week)!

    What to Expect in the month of January:
    55-56 bets (25 NBA + 25 NHL) *One pick, per sport, from Monday-Saturday (two days of no picks per sport)!*
    + 1 CFB Bowl bet and 4-5 NFL Playoff bets.

    One day at a time,
    Lucky Sharp
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  2. #2  
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    January 1st:
    [NHL] Chicago Blackhawks +145
    2.07 units to win 3.00 units / $207 to win $300

    One day at a time,
    Lucky Sharp
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  3. #3  
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    LuckySharp: Welcome, and Best of Luck.
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  4. #4  
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    Thanks DMD!

    2019 Results: 2-1 +3.90 units (+$195)

    • NBA: 1-0 +3 units (+$150)
    • NHL: 0-1 -2.1 units ($-105)
    • CFB Bowls: 1-0 +3 units (+$150)



    January 2nd
    [NHL] Detroit Red Wings +150
    Risking 2.00 units to win 3.00 units / Risking $100 to win $150

    One day at a time,
    Lucky Sharp
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  5. #5  
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    all the best mate

    do you use a system or is it based on your power rating? what is the basis for your picks?
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  6. #6  
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    GL lucky
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  7. #7  
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    Thanks hacheman. Skywalker,

    For my MLB System wagers, I use a combination of three systems that I have personally developed (which have been back-tested 15 seasons, have a ROI above 10% and have profited over 300 units overall during that time). However, they only make up approximately 55 of my 600 wagers each year. The remaining 545 wagers come from my daily forecasts of the available qualitative and quantitative data as it relates to sport (statistics, injuries/lineups, stadiums, referees/umpires, weather), to human nature (thoughts, feelings and actions of players/coaches - through interviews, twitter and from analyzing the players/coaches as they interact on the field/court) and through the betting market (trends, media narratives, betting data, line movements, public perception) in order to recognize market value.

    It would be impossible for me to to explain exactly how I handicap each days card, as this has been a process in which i've developed over the past 15 years. I could place more bets and risk less units per wager, but the strategy of picking the best bet on each individuals sports card for that day (NBA/NHL/MLB and up to 3 NFL wagers) is the strategy that works best for me. It allows me to discard games that don't meet my criteria and focus my time and energy on the games which do.

    I hope this helps. Good luck tonight!
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  8. #8  
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    2019 Results: 2-3 -1.40 units (-$70)

    • NBA: 1-1 -0.3 units ($-15)
    • NHL: 0-2 -4.1 units ($-205)
    • CFB Bowls: 1-0 +3 units (+$150)


    January 3rd
    [NHL] Florida Panthers -105
    Risking 3.15 units to win 3.00 units / Risking $157.50 to win $150



    One day at a time,
    Lucky Sharp
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  9. #9  
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    understood, thanks for the explanation; all the best
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  10. #10  
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    2019 Results: 3-4 -1.55 units (-$77.50)


    • NBA: 2-1 +2.70 units ($+135)
    • NHL: 0-4 -7.25 units ($-362.5)
    • CFB Bowls: 1-0 +3 units (+$150)


    January 4th

    [NHL] Vegas Golden Knights -135
    Risking 4.05 units to win 3.00 units / Risking $202.5 to win $150

    One day at a time,
    Lucky Sharp
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  11. #11  
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    2019 Results: 5-4 +4.45 units (+$222.5) / Average Odds = +103


    • NBA: 3-1 +5.70 units (+$285)
    • NHL: 1-4 -4.25 units (-$212.5)
    • NFL Playoffs: 0-0 +0 units (+0)
    • CFB Bowls: 1-0 +3 units (+$150)


    January 5th

    [NHL] Los Angeles Kings -115
    Risking 3.45 units to win 3.00 units / Risking $172.5 to win $150

    One day at a time,
    Lucky Sharp
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  12. #12  
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    2019 Results: 7-6 +4.06 units (+$203) / Average Odds = +100


    • NBA: 3-2 +2.55 units (+$127.5)
    • NHL: 2-4 -1.25 units (-$62.5)
    • NFL Playoffs: 1-1 -0.24 units (-$12)
    • CFB Bowls: 1-0 +3 units (+$150)


    Last Weeks Results = 7-6 +4.06 units

    What to expect this week?
    5-6 NBA Bets (1 per day, Monday-Saturday)
    5-6 NHL Bets (1 per day, Monday-Saturday)
    1-2 NFL Bets (Saturday-Sunday)

    January 7th

    [NHL] Los Angeles Kings +1.5 (-135)
    Risking 4.05 units to win 3.00 units / Risking $202.5 to win $150

    One day at a time,
    Lucky Sharp
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  13. #13  
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    2019 Results: 8-7 +3.01 units (+$150.5) / Average Odds = -103



    • NBA: 4-2 +5.55 units (+$277.5)
    • NHL: 2-4 -5.30 units (-$62.5)
    • NFL Playoffs: 1-1 -0.24 units (-$12)
    • CFB Bowls: 1-0 +3 units (+$150)


    January 8th

    [NHL] San Jose Sharks -225
    Risking 6.75 units to win 3.00 units / Risking $337.5 to win $150

    One day at a time,
    Lucky Sharp
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  14. #14  
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    nice night yesterday, keep it up
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  15. #15  
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    Thanks Skywalker!

    2019 Results: 10-7 +9.01 units (+$450.5) / Average Odds = -106

    • NBA: 5-2 +8.55 units (+$427.5)
    • NHL: 3-4 -2.30 units (-$115)
    • NFL Playoffs: 1-1 -0.24 units (-$12)
    • CFB Bowls: 1-0 +3 units (+$150)

    January 9th

    [NHL] Calgary Flames -180
    Risking 5.40 units to win 3.00 units / Risking $270 to win $150

    One day at a time,
    Lucky Sharp
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  16. #16  
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    NJ LuckySharp!
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  17. #17  
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    Thanks Kooch!

    2019 Results: 12-7 +15.01 units (+$1,050.5) / Average Odds = -109


    • NBA: 6-2 +11.55 units (+$577.5)
    • NHL: 4-4 +0.70 units (+35)
    • NFL Playoffs: 1-1 -0.24 units (-$12)
    • CFB Bowls: 1-0 +3 units (+$150)


    January 10th

    [NHL] Toronto Maple Leafs -175
    Risking 5.25 units to win 3.00 units / Risking $262.5 to win $150

    One day at a time,
    Lucky Sharp
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  18. #18  
    RX Junior
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    keep it up mate, great going
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  19. #19  
    RX Junior
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    btw where abouts in Toronto are you from
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  20. #20  
    RX Junior
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    2019 Results: 13-8 +14.86 units (+$743) / Average Odds = -110


    • NBA: 6-3 +8.40 units (+$420)
    • NHL: 5-4 +3.70 units (+185)
    • NFL Playoffs: 1-1 -0.24 units (-$12)
    • CFB Bowls: 1-0 +3 units (+$150)



    January 11th

    NO NHL TODAY

    Skywalker, I am actually from Hamilton - about 30 minutes west of Toronto. I typically tell Americans I am from Toronto, as they rarely have heard of Hamilton.

    One day at a time,
    Lucky Sharp
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  21. #21  
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    ahh got it, makes sense haha. keep up the great work man
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  22. #22  
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    2019 Results: 14-8 +17.86 units (+$893) / Average Odds = -110


    • NBA: 7-3 +11.40 units (+$570)
    • NHL: 5-4 +3.70 units (+185)
    • NFL Playoffs: 1-1 -0.24 units (-$12)
    • CFB Bowls: 1-0 +3 units (+$150)



    January 12th

    [NHL] Washington Capitals -150
    Risking 4.50 units to win 3.00 units / Risking $225 to win $150

    One day at a time,
    Lucky Sharp
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  23. #23  
    RX Junior
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    2019 Results: 17-9 +22.36 units (+$1,118) / Average Odds = -111


    • NBA: 8-3 +14.40 units (+$720)
    • NHL: 5-5 -0.80 units (-$40)
    • NFL Playoffs: 3-1 +5.76 units (+$288)
    • CFB Bowls: 1-0 +3 units (+$150)


    January 14th

    [NHL] Montreal Canadiens +160
    Risking 1.88 units to win 3.00 units / Risking $94 to win $150

    One day at a time,
    Lucky Sharp
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  24. #24  
    RX Junior
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    NJ SHARP!
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  25. #25  
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    Thanks Koocher.

    2019 Results: 19-9 +28.36 units (+$1,418) / Average Odds = -108


    • NBA: 9-3 +17.40 units (+$870)
    • NHL: 6-5 +2.20 units (+$110)
    • NFL Playoffs: 3-1 +5.76 units (+$288)
    • CFB Bowls: 1-0 +3 units (+$150)


    January 15th

    [NHL] Pittsburgh Penguins +130
    Risking 2.31 units to win 3.00 units / Risking $115.5 to win $150

    One day at a time,
    Lucky Sharp
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