While waiting for the Big game, perhaps a discussion of scripting is in order

Codebreaker · Jan 2, 2019

dazed and confused, especially after the OSU and UGA games, But smarter for the experience. As with trading the stock market, I either get wiser or richer with every trade. I never get both.

There is definitely something more at work here then X's and O's, I think it's called money. While the smaller lower profile games don't seem to offer as ripe a target the bigger games with larger pools definitely are getting played. The common theme seems to be the better team, real or perceived, faltering at some point allowing the lesser team to cover. In the OSU game, the script was OSU faltering in 4th Q, for UGA it was lay-down from the start. then try to come back from the big hole. With no chance to cover.

Setting the number for OSU game at less than -7 set up the game as it unfolded. Setting the UGA number at -12 created a totally different setup. With Wash at +5 there was a chance to close to that number and not be too obvious. At -12 UGA had no chance to close that number.

With Clemson at +6 it leaves open the model we saw in the OSU game. Bama jumps out to a nice lead by halftime then Clemson closes to cover the spread but lose the game or actually win the game. I'd expect a ton of cash sitting on the Bama ML so maybe Clemson pulls off the win on the last play of the game.

At -6 I don't see the model of Clemson jumping out to a big lead like Texas vs UGA, with Bama closing to cover or win the game on the last play.

I think Clemson closes the spread +6 and might even win the game if enough money is on Bama ML.

What do you guys think?

BOL

halekulani · Jan 2, 2019

i think clemson has a good shot to cover.

TimmyRules · Jan 2, 2019

You are much wiser and more experienced in the gambling world than I, but I agree with scenario that
Bama comes out strong (therefore a 1Q and 1H play on Bama) but Clemson makes it close in the
end. (Clem+7@-140).

However, if we have a bone headed play, targeting, forced turnovers, dropped pass (not intentionally)
then the refs may "lose control" of the outcome...

The guy with the big Teaser Georgia ML got the experience...

Let's listen to the talking heads all week, see where the money goes
then be ready to play the other side!!!

Swalker · Jan 3, 2019

We just have to be disciplined, and stop all betting toward the end of the year...or at the least, all high profile games. Unless you are just going to go low amount contrarian style in any game with 60% of the money on one side.

Serbone · Jan 3, 2019

I do not think every game is fixed.

But some are.

By REFS that have been motivated by money or even by the conference/NCAA, or the league (NFL).

But NO WAY the players and teams are involved in a coordinated manner. Sure, over time, a key player has taken a dive for the $$$.

NO WAY there is a "script" involving the players or coaches.

IMO the Ohio State game was not fixed. Nor was the Sooner/Bama game. Nor the Georgia game they were not interested in the game at all, Texas was fired up.

Iowa State game, IMO they helped Wash St, maybe. Iowa, they helped them beat Miss St, maybe.

Refs: A team gets a big gain, call offensive holding. Favor one team on pass interference & defensive holding, it is easy.

Refs.

Not an all encompassing script.

GL!

Swalker · Jan 3, 2019

Refs and coaching/play calling...I normally agree with most of what you say Serborn, but if you don’t see how the Ohio state game was manipulated i’m Going to have to test your eyes or mental stability.

exploited17 · Jan 3, 2019

We see this every year in bowl games. Are some fixed? Who knows. Maybe. Most of it can be chalked up to players/teams not caring or getting ahead ina game and letting down. Almost prevent defense style with no urgency. How many weird 28-0 quarters/halves did we see? We see it every year in bowl games more than anything Teams take a lead and a comeback ensues. Why? Because these teams don't know each other. The game isn't that important. They want to get out of there with a win.

Codebreaker · Jan 3, 2019

Yes, it cannot involve the players I spent 4 years right in the middle of this game. It was always balls to the wall. I never sensed a coach manipulating defensive calls to disadvantage us. With as much shit you have to go thru to play this game, players would rat out a coach that asked them to throw a game.

While I haven't looked at the OSU game in slow-mo yet I am very curious to see where the fufk-ps were to allow Wash to close a 25 point gap, to cover the game but not win. In full speed, I kept seeing DL and LB's over-pursuing, DB's running behind plays and wide open WR's

To fix the game they can't involve the players that secret would last about an hour after the game was over. The DC putting players in bad positions to make plays would have to be where it happens. If OSU's DC did that the Wash players will still have to make the plays to score, like throwing and catching balls.

As for the refs, with Wash behind by 25 there was very little they could do. However, as Wash got closer to closing the number shit started to happen. Flags were everywhere as Wash drove down to close within the spread.

Unless someone admits to it, which no one would do, there is no way to prove the DC made bad calls to alter the game in the 4Q.

As far as scripting, what I meant was does the dog jump out to big lead like UTexas or does the Favorite falter like OSU. These games seem to fall into one bucket or the other.

JimZer · Jan 3, 2019

Alabama wins and the over 59.5 , with two elite quarterbacks and team, Alabama.

Serbone · Jan 3, 2019

Swalker said:
Refs and coaching/play calling...I normally agree with most of what you say Serborn, but if you don’t see how the Ohio state game was manipulated i’m Going to have to test your eyes or mental stability.

I dunno. Maybe you are correct, but it was pretty late in the game when some calls went Washington's way. IMO if it was a big set up they would have been keeping OSU at bay, holding calls when they made a big play, defensive PI, that kind of thing, from the beginning and I did not see that at all.

I honestly think that sometimes the refs get emotionally involved, get caught up into the spirit of a comeback and help a team like Washington in a spot like that... the drama, the crowd.

Again, maybe you are right I did not watch every down like I often do.

I swear the Iowa game, from the start, they kept holding back Miss St, and another game that stood out the refs kept hurting Iowa State, wanted Wash St to win. There were some others but those two were very slanted. Hmmmm... a Washington - Iowa fix, both games! (No I am not an Iowa fan nor resident I could give a shit at all ha) Oops, refs called another illegal motion on Ia St.

XENO · Jan 3, 2019

i think 8-10 years ago it was much easier to mess with a game,you had Joe Public usually on the fav and dogs covered better than today. We have much more Sharps an the lines move 3,4,5 points and more these past 5,6 years. that rarely if ever happened back 8-10 yrs or more. And its hard to always Know where the real money is on.YOU cant tell me that vegas had big money on washington,yet line dropped from some 7.5 mostly 7 down to 4 in some places,yet most local books even near rosebowl area still kept 6.my ny man had 7 till near gametime an went to 6.my Guy in excalibur in vegas said bets were 5,and 6-1 ohiost.yet even they dropped thier lines.i wonder why.From what i understand 2-3 guys Make THE Line in Vegas an when they move it,they all move it- im sure we all noticed that. Again how do they seem to move it at same time? because it all comes from the same 1 Source those 2-3 guys.Bovada had 7 1/2 even though some had 5 at one point.But they Always have a higher line then most on the fav.But when they have it lower than all else an that is rare,the Favorite seems to cover.There is no doubt with me that Some games they KNOW.its a Script already played out,but i cannot prove it!!

brendanjack · Jan 3, 2019

Seemed like browning forced the ball all first half and start of second aiming not throwing finally found a decent rhythm to late . Ohio state stopped playing trying to kill clock. I don’t think the fix was in one team stopped as the dog woke up obviously game was no where as near as score. Not typical of Ohio state to not finish strong .

Serbone · Jan 4, 2019

The OSU line dropped from -6.5 to -4.5, even -4 a few hours before kickoff on game day, I do not think it was a Vegas conspiracy with sharps and scripts and conspiracies.

I think there were legitimate reports of gale warnings, winds at 27mph and gusts to 38 up until an hour before game time, then it suddenly calmed down. I saw reports with those numbers myself on Accuweather and other national non gambling places. Then I watched the pre game and of course they would not discuss it on the air but then the weather reports dropped dramatically and the wind was not very significant at all at kickoff. These very very high winds would have hurt the OSU passing game and helped the Washington underdog situation, thus they dropped the line IMO.

XENO · Jan 4, 2019

but Serbone-the point im making is if the money was coming in 5-1 on ohio st Why was the line dropping.weather was fine with some high wind.thats not gonna cause i drop in line. Money should dictate line movement but it rarely does these days.they were both passing all over the place.

pathologist · Jan 4, 2019

I feel Clemson wins this game outright. Wouldn't surprise me if they win by 14+

Serbone · Jan 4, 2019

XENO said:
but Serbone-the point im making is if the money was coming in 5-1 on ohio st Why was the line dropping.weather was fine with some high wind.thats not gonna cause i drop in line. Money should dictate line movement but it rarely does these days.they were both passing all over the place.

You are very knowledgeable, and I respect you.
But high winds usually help the dog, the defense, and in this case OSU passing was superior to Washington's. Thus Vegas lowered the spread.
The 27-38mph wind thing was real and it happened late am, early afternoon in Pasadena, and caused a panic IMO.
If someone has data from ALL directions, Vegas, offshore, locals that indicate the majority of money was still coming in on OSU, then, OK, but data like this based on partial information is not credible IMO. And I do not think many were aware of the gale warning. Again, I verified in on Accuweather and other sources. It fizzled into the teens by game time.
I watched most of the game and the refs did not set things up. Late, they seemed to support Washington, IMO in the spirit of the moment helping to provide a great finish.
But if it was being managed, there would have been anti OSU calls the first 3 quarters to keep it closer, not allow it to go 28-3.
OSU took foot off pedal, played prevent, Washington fought hard, classic back door, I had OSU - 6.5 but in this spot I am not claiming refs were in on the outcome. I think Ia St and Miss St both were screwed out of wins by strong ref crappola from the outset to control the outcome.
Just my opinion we will never know, will we?

XENO · Jan 4, 2019

S you make a lot of sense for sure by your last comments an i respect that, but why would ohios st keep throwin with that lead and not consume time.they allowed wash to come back imho.fishy somewhat dont U think.

Serbone · Jan 5, 2019

XENO said:
S you make a lot of sense for sure by your last comments an i respect that, but why would ohios st keep throwin with that lead and not consume time.they allowed wash to come back imho.fishy somewhat dont U think.

IMO they were trying to avoid the fatal conservative approach, run up the middle and get stuffed. Their strength is their passing game, probably the first QB to be drafted.

I believe that yes, some games are fixed, through refs.

I do not believe that a coach or players fix a game with many involved, though an occasional rogue player (QB) or two will do so who are paid off BIG.

What you are suggesting is that they passed to stop from eating the clock... that would be the head coach involved in fixing the game. If so he would not have allowed it to go to 28-3, he would have kept it closer, doing what happened is too risky, kids had to make passes, catch balls, at the last minute. And I do not think coach would throw his last game, do you?

Codebreaker · Jan 5, 2019

Actually keeping it close is riskier for OSU. They have complete control up 28-3.

the score was 28-3 with 12:45 left in the 4Q. The odds Wash covering 6 are near zero. I'm not sure what is happening with OSU's DC and OC now that Meyer is gone. Perhaps they were interviewing for jobs up 25 points in Rose Bowl with 12 mins left in 4thQ.

Someone stopped coaching whether it was by mistake or on purpose, wrong defenses were called, wrong offensive plays were called, zero clock management was deployed. On top of that clearly, the refs got involved at it closed to within a score of the spread.

No one will admit to anything so we are just beating a dead horse. Congrats Wash betters, let's all pray funny NFL shit doesn't creep into this fantastic college game with Wall Street controlling Vegas now.

Codebreaker · Jan 5, 2019

More States are proposing sports betting. Virginia is planning on adding it to the legislative agenda next year. With online options, the growth potential is massive as more States adopt sports betting. William Hall got the West Va contract, they are working on allowing West Va Ip's to bet online, now it's limited to Casino bets. MD has casinos now the fight there is between the Horse racing tracts and Casinos. Expect MD to figure it out. The Supreme court opened the doors to a massive growth model.

Weed, gambling, when am I going to be able to order my hot Eastern Bloc escort for the weekend, while I'm out walking my dog? :think2: