Under 60 in Champ game

Under 60 Seems like the bet vs some crazy backdoor risk and kneeling and such.

Clearly, Saben and Bama are the national villains outside of Alabama. So maybe they do score 1st and take a lead to halftime only to have Clemson roar back behind the QB that looks like Jesus. Even Bama fans will root for Jesus, maybe.

Is this OSU vs Wash all over again?

Clemson win SU imo. But I will take the points. Two teasm who can run and stop the run. Tua a bit better passer at this point. But Lawrence brings more of a running game with his legs. That is the one thing that will give a good defense fits. The one thing that will turn a great defense to a good one. Saw that with Texas and Georgia...also Oklahoma and Alabama. So, in a relatively even situation I will take 6-7 points all day

I wouldn't touch that under .... too much offensive potential both teams

As always I try to focus on reality. As we saw in the OSU game sometimes reality gets distorted. Bama's offense was not tested by OU. As we discussed repeatedly leading up to the game. As was also pointed out ND is just plain awful as a matchup with Clemson's offense.

Bama and Clemson will be facing the 2 best defenses they have all season. Miss St held Bama to 24 points and UGA held Bama to 14 into the 3rd Q. Yes, Yua got injured but UGA stuffed them. Those were the two best defenses Bama faced all season. LSU, not a shabby defense, held them to 29.

As for Clemson they were never really tested this year, I won't count Syracuse since it was the 1st game. Pitt held Clemson to 42, not exactly an impressive defense.

These offenses will be getting tested like they have not been all season. To me, it comes down to who can convert the most 3rd downs. I think Bama has a slightly better front 7 assuming everyone plays. Just enough to get a few more stops then Clemson.

Having said all that, I think Bama rushes out to a nice lead by halftime 14-3, only to see it depleted in the 2nd half leading to a cover and maybe the win. My guess is BAMA takes a halftime lead, Clemson roars back and covers with a 40% chance of winning on last play. 21-17, Take the under.

What makes the under seem like the bet??

#2 Scoring offense in the nation at 47.7 points per game in Alabama.
#4 Scoring offense in the nation at 44.3 points per game in Clemson.
#3 Total Offense in nation is CLEMSON with 3588 rushing yds and 3838 passing yds.
#4 Total Offense in nation is Alabama with 2828 rushing yds and 4559 passing yds.
DEFENSE:
CLEMSON #2 Defense in nation yielding 1296 yds versus Rush and 2549 yds versus pass.
Alabama #13 Defense in nation yielding 1684 yds versus Rush and 2627 yds versus pass.
Pass Defense. CLEMSON: #16 allowing 6.2 yds per reception and 182.1 yds per game.
Alabama: #22 allowing 6.1 yds per reception and 187 yds per game.
Rush Defense. CLEMSON: #2 allowing 2.40 yds per carry and 95.57 yds per game.
Alabama: #19 allowing 3.47 yds per carry and 120 yds per game.
These are the raw numbers. Make of them what you may.

Both of these teams are built with defenses to control the game. I just don't see either team busting this game open on offense. An argument can be made that Clemson has not been tested like Bama this year. I am not sure that really matters because the teams are so similar and will be giving a max effort.

Of course over time is possible and my Under gets creamed. Thats like hitting 00 on the roulette board with 5k on black.

I could not predict Wash would backdoor OSU when they were down 25 in the 3rd Q. So I would not put too much stock in my prediction.:think2:

What makes those stats so deceiving is that if Bama and Clem played each other every week for 12 games neither team would have rankings in the top 50. It's even a little difficult to compare those rankings between the two teams. Both played in different conferences and had diff OCC schedules. How do you normalize those teams performances?

I played on a team with the #1 ranked defense in the country my Sr year. While things may have changed I can tell you for a fact 2 things. 1st from week to week almost nothing changed, we practiced the same way, our schemes stayed the same, maybe 1 extra wrinkle was added a blitz or zone coverage. But the same philosophy remained, we were going to stuff your running game and force you to throw the ball period. The same was true on offense, Each week was about getting better execution from the plays we had vs drawing up new plays each week for a different team. Sure a new play or two was added but for the most part, we danced with the same plays every week. The effort from week to week was to get better execution from the same plays.

2nd how the defense performed dictated how the offense would play. If we controlled the LOS and stuffed the run, the offense would play ball control. If we struggled to stop a running game the offense would throw the ball more.

Bama and Clemson have the same philosophy, they will play just as they have over the last 12 weeks. One will execute just a little better, at critical times, to win the game.

In 2016 Bama lost this game in a shootout, in 2017 Bama won this game in a tightly fought battle. My guess is Saben prefers the tightly fought battle and will strive for that in 2018. Can Lawrence force this into a shootout?

I am thinking of playing more money line tease bets, Parlays I guess, can anyone explain their process tks.

IMO Bama is vulnerable to a top mid range and deep passing game, Clemson knows they cannot win running the ball down Bama's throat. I see Clemson scoring a lot, like their TT over, this tall skinny kid can zing it and can move in the pocket to extend plays... and then a RB goes 55 yds for a TD. Bama has a great, well balanced offense, too, Clemson has not had to deal with anything like it, either, and missing impact DL Lawrence will hurt them vs Bama, ha, they didn't need him vs ND. Both teams should get into the 30's IMO. Saban came out throwing against the Sooners...

I am not famous for totals but the over is very attractive to me, pending the weather (wind!).

Clemson gave up 601 passing yards to its two SEC opponents this season. What will it surrender against the highest-scoring of them all? Still, I'd rather take the under than over in this one (slow start, lots of points in second half).