Sat Notes / Plays Cbb

Kaboom · Jan 4, 2019

Since limited games on Friday ... break down a few for Saturday ... Thoughts always appreciated !!!

Butler at Home Only ..... 2 Overs 1 Under when Total Posted at 147.5 or higher in 2019

Last Year ... 2018 .... When Butler at Home Only when total was 147.5 or higher ....7 Over 0 Overs ...

Butler has more experience than last year while Creighton has less experience ... Last year's game in Butler .. Final score Butler 93-70 .... Butler coming off 2 Losses , while Creighton off a nice road win at Providence .

Just my opinion .... This game sets up for Butler ATS / Over Team Total Butler / and Over the Total in the Game

I will be all 3 on Saturday ... I lose ...oh well ...move on....

Will add

Kaboom · Jan 4, 2019

I like looking at Previous Match-ups that have similar teams tempo's and then look at SOS / Experience / and rest of stats ..

Syracuse won on the road at Kenpom Rank #22 Ohio St this year 72-62 ...

ND ( Kenpom Rank #68 has a similar Tempo as Ohio St 262 Tempo / ND 268 Tempo ... Ohio St has the Better Kenpom Rank / Better Defense / Better Offense / Played a better SOS and a slightly experience edge over ND ... Even with these advantages shit happens in CBB that doesn't match the numbers I provided, like an ND win here. Times teams with less experience can struggle vs that Syracuse Zone , but ND Brey knows how to get around it a bit more than most coaches , seen it a few times.

Tough call here ... Lean Syracuse and a small lean Under 1st H Total

Kaboom · Jan 4, 2019

G Town at home in 2018 ......8 Over/ 8 Unders ....but 2019 ..... 7 Overs to 1 Under .... Last year at Gtown ...before OT total points scored was 138 with the total set at 145.5 ...would have gone under if No OT ... 2017 at Gtown game went Under 156.5 .... Tough call ...

TheDallasDad · Jan 4, 2019

Great stuff.. thank you

Kaboom · Jan 4, 2019

TheDallasDad said:
Great stuff.. thank you

Thanks Dallas for the stop in ... we are all here to help us win some dough or look at other angles of capping . GL !

Kaboom · Jan 4, 2019

Maine at UMBC

Always dangerous playing these kinds of teams but ...gonna give it a shot with something I noticed .... UMBC has beaten Maine 8 straight times .... Also earlier this year UMBC beat a Manhattan squad that has a similar Kenpom Rank ( poor ) by 23 ... Manhattan does not have the experience of this Maine squad , but rest of numbers are very similar to one another .... Maine is a quirky team to beat but I feel UMBC with a line of about say - 5 or so should be able to Win on the Money Line

My Play will be UMBC ML

kidman232 · Jan 4, 2019

Win or lose, appreciate your insight

Kaboom · Jan 4, 2019

kidman232 said:
Win or lose, appreciate your insight

Thanks brotha !! Appreciate it !!

Kaboom · Jan 4, 2019

Few Okla St / Okla Trends !!!

Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.
Home team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
Cowboys are 4-11 ATS in the last 15 meetings.
Cowboys are 1-9 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Oklahoma.

Cowboys are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

Sooners are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.

Watch OK ST Cover here ??? Not a play ...just saying

When total is between 140 - 150 ...both teams combined ... Only 4 Over to 17 Unders !!!

Kaboom · Jan 4, 2019

Going to let Over/Under line hit 120 or so before I play the Under 1st H K St / TT ...

Since Beard has been coach of TT ... last 4 times these 2 teams played ...total points score at half

56
59
62
54

My Play ...Under 1st H K St / TT

varkeyboy · Jan 4, 2019

Looking fwd to your Saturday list! Get em K-B!

Kaboom · Jan 4, 2019

San Francisco - 7 1/2 at Pepperdine is in a Huge Sandwich spot after beating ST Mary's in SF ...with a home game next up with Gonzaga ... Can we rely the inexperienced Pepperdine squad to cover ? Pepperdine has some nice momentum in a home win vs Loy Mt in last game ...

Tough call

Kaboom · Jan 5, 2019

Keeping track of these to see how they do .... would not advise a tail

Over 143 VT

Over 161 GB

Over 147 Army

Over 148 VMI

Over 158 Stony

Over 127 UMBC

Under 157 U Mass

Over 148 Wintrop

Over 140 Okla

Under 141 Utah

Will add

TimmyRules · Jan 5, 2019

Hey Kbm...not that you have to tell but are these from trends
that hit above 60%....??

At the end of the day, if you let us know the reason you like them
we can decide to blindly tail, fade or additional research necessary.

I think if I started an "I flipped a coin" capping strategy I would still
get people to tail or fade w-thumbs!^

Kaboom · Jan 5, 2019

Timmy Rules said:
Hey Kbm...not that you have to tell but are these from trends
that hit above 60%....??

At the end of the day, if you let us know the reason you like them
we can decide to blindly tail, fade or additional research necessary.

I think if I started an "I flipped a coin" capping strategy I would still
get people to tail or fade w-thumbs!^

Since u asked bro ... I try to cap every game with an Opening line ... for example ... I capped NC - 11 ..line opened at - 8 1/2 ...when line is lower than the line I capped ...I play the Under ...

Another example ...I capped UMBC - 5 ....opened at - 10 ..... I played the Over ....

Just want to see how it does .... may tank badly , who knows ?

I would no tail any ...as mentioned

Kaboom · Jan 5, 2019

Sat Plays

Over 137 E TN St ... 9 Over 2 Unders teams combined when total is 130.5 to 139.5

[h=3]VS. THE TOTAL[/h]

Team	100- 109.5	110- 119.5	120- 129.5	130- 139.5
CHAT	0-0	0-0	0-0	3-1
ETSU	0-0	0-0	0-0	6-1

Baylor + 9

Few more bit later

TimmyRules · Jan 5, 2019

Thanks for answering Kbm

Kaboom · Jan 5, 2019

Timmy Rules said:
Thanks for answering Kbm

No prob bro !

TimmyRules · Jan 5, 2019

Kaboom said:
... I try to cap every game with an Opening line ...

By the way, it's a damn good thing minimum wage has increased as you should be getting
more now for all the hard work you put into your capping!! :103631605

Thanks for sharing your plays!

Kaboom · Jan 5, 2019

Not sure what the outcome will be in this shit fest match-up LIU / Bryant ...all I know is that the line is way off here, but that does not mean it favors a side .... let's see what happens today ?

Bryant was + 12.5 at home vs Kenpom Rank # 223 Dartmouth / Today at Home they face LIU Kenpom Rank # 256 getting only + 3 ?????

Staying away here ...let's see if the public catches on here and moves LIU up ????

Ton of Value on LIU here but line says Bryant ?????

Sat Notes / Plays Cbb

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