Monday 1/7/2019 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Requests Etc

Clemson Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Preview and Predictions 2019-01-07
NCAAF PREDICTIONS 4TH JANUARY 2019 BY GRACENOTE

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME STORYLINES


1. Two stalwarts of the College Football Playoff era square off for a fourth consecutive year when No. 2 Clemson takes on top-ranked Alabama for the national title Monday in Santa Clara, California. After splitting a pair of championship-game matchups following the 2015 and 2016 seasons, the Crimson Tide dispatched the Tigers 24-6 in the semifinals last year, and both emerged as early favorites to reach the title game. "I think as the season evolved, just knowing how well Clemson played all year long and how they were pretty dominant in their league, it was no surprise to me that they would end up where they are right now," Alabama coach Nick Saban told reporters. "You're always looking at the next game and not looking too far ahead and all that, but it's no surprise to me that they're in the championship game, as well."


2. The first two meetings - Alabama's 45-40 win in January 2016 and Clemson's 35-31 triumph in January 2017 - were classics that went down to the wire, and both coaches expect a similar outcome between two evenly matched teams on Monday. "When you look at this game, I think both teams are kind of mirror images of each other, to be honest with you - really good defenses, dynamic quarterbacks, very talented running backs and explosive skill, and just kind of built in the trenches. We're so similar," Clemson coach Dabo Swinney told reporters. "So it's going to come down to just execution and mentally being sharp and making those two or three plays that you don't know when they're coming. So you just have to truly play every play like it's the play." Both teams rank in the top five nationally in total offense, scoring offense and scoring defense, while Clemson is fifth Alabama 13th in total defense.

3. Clemson will be without star defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence, tight end Braden Galloway and offensive lineman Zach Giella for a second straight contest after the trio tested positive for ostarine prior to the national semifinal game. Galloway and Giella are reserves who play sparingly, but Lawrence is a critical piece of the Tigers' dominant defensive line. Alabama suspended tight end Kedrick James and offensive linemen Elliot Baker and Deonte Brown for unspecified NCAA violations prior to the semifinal game, but the latter (five starts) is the only one of the three who played a key role this season.


TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Alabama -5.5


ABOUT CLEMSON (14-0): Swinney made the bold decision to go with Trevor Lawrence as his starting quarterback four games into the season, and the move has paid off as the freshman has piled up 2,933 passing yards with 27 touchdowns and four interceptions. Lawrence's big arm gives the Tigers a downfield threat on every play, but running back Travis Etienne (1,572 yards, 22 TDs) is the workhorse on offense. Despite losing Dexter Lawrence, the defense still was dominant in last week's 30-3 victory over Notre Dame (as the Clemson were -10.5 point favorite at intertops) and possesses four players who have recorded at least 10 tackles for loss, including Clelin Ferrell (18 tackles for loss, 11.5 sacks).

ABOUT ALABAMA (14-0): The Crimson Tide have evolved from the team that was content to run the ball and slug out a low-scoring win, as quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (3,671 passing yards, 41 TDs, four interceptions) leads a high-powered offense. Alabama's best shot at attacking the Tigers is through the air as five receivers have made at least six touchdown receptions, with Jerry Jeudy (1,176 receiving yards, 13 TDs) leading the way. Alabama's defense might be the most susceptible unit on the field, having given up 454 and 507 total yards, respectively, in its last two games, so getting stops in the red zone and forcing turnovers will be key against Clemson's explosive offense.


PREDICTION: Clemson 37, Alabama 34

Top Trends for this game.

ALABAMA is 58-35 ATS (+19.5 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
CLEMSON is 32-15 ATS (+15.5 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
CLEMSON is 60-36 ATS (+20.4 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
CLEMSON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins this season.
CLEMSON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History

ALABAMA is 1-1 against the spread versus CLEMSON over the last 3 seasons
ALABAMA is 1-1 straight up against CLEMSON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Clemson vs. Alabama Point Spread Drops, 1/3/19 National Championship Odds

Spread for Title Game Drops Full Point

The point spread in Monday night’s Clemson and Alabama national championship matchup has dropped a full point from the opening line. Kickoff between the Tigers and Crimson Tide is set for 8:00 p.m. ET in Santa Clara.


According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetNow.eu, the Crimson Tide are now 5.5-point favorites to beat the Tigers on Monday night. Alabama opened as 6.5-point favorites (or as high as 7 at some sportsbooks) when the line was released, but oddsmakers took enough money on Clemson to drop the line a full point.


The total for this season’s championship game has also dropped a full point, moving from 60.5 down to 59.5. As of this writing, 57% of the betting tickets are on the Crimson Tide and 56% of the money is also on Alabama to cover the 5.5 points. As for the over/under, 57% of the betting tickets and 59% of the money is on the over.

Clemson's appeals on behalf of suspended junior DT Dexter Lawrence, OL Zach Giella and TE Braden Galloway have been denied by the NCAA. That trio was suspended for Clemson's Cotton Bowl semifinal win over Notre Dame after testing positive for banned substance ostrarine. While the school appealed in an attempt to allow them to play in the National Championship Game against Alabama on Monday, those appeals have fallen in vain. Lawrence finished with 36tackles (7 for loss), 1.5 sacks and three passes defended across 13 games. It’s a huge loss for the Tigers.


As for Alabama, LB Terrell Lewis (knee) did not practice on Wednesday. Lewis (6'5/254) has yet to play this season due to a torn right ACL sustained in July, but he had been back practicing with the team since November. The junior linebacker is unlikely to take the field for the National Championship Game on Wednesday, though it is not completely outside the realm of possibility. Regardless of whether or not he plays in that contest, Lewis will be eligible to take a redshirt for the year. He is also eligible to declare for the draft should he so choose, though given the amount of time he has missed, a return to school for the 2019 season would allowing him a proof of concept when it comes to his health.

All Relative: Clemson coaches, sons share title legacy

SAN JOSE, Calif. (AP) Amid the plans and preparations, Clemson coach Dabo Swinney caught himself daydreaming of the special moment he and sons Will and Drew could share Monday night.
The Swinney family has enjoyed national championships before. Another one, the coach acknowledged, when the second-ranked Tigers take on No. 1 Alabama in Santa Clara would be even more special with Will the Tigers' sophomore holder and younger brother Drew as a freshman receiver.
''It's just unique for me to be able to have this experience with my kids,'' he said.
Although maybe not so unique at Clemson, where several coaches and players share family and championship ties.
Tigers defensive coordinator Brent Venables coaches first-year linebacker Jake Venables, his oldest son. Two years ago, Clemson linebackers J.D. and Judah Davis, the twin sons of Tigers 1981 national title team defensive leader Jeff Davis, helped Clemson beat Alabama 35-31 for the program's first championship since their dad's time.
Clemson co-offensive coordinator Jeff Scott earned a national title ring from 2016 to match his father, Brad, who accomplished the same as Florida State offensive coordinator in 1993. Brad has worked with Clemson's football program to help incoming recruits with paperwork and the process of enrolling.
Backup quarterback Ben Batson, who played the part of Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa on the scout team, is the son of Clemson's longtime strength and conditioning coach. Ben's brother, Michael, was a punter on the 2016 title team.
Tigers tight end J.C. Chalk is the grandson of ex-Alabama coach Gene Stallings, who was Swinney's coach with the Crimson Tide when that team won the national title in 1992.
And Tigers sophomore receiver Amari Rodgers looks to match his father, Tee Martin, who won a national championship in 1998 as Tennessee's quarterback.
''When we say Clemson is family, we mean it,'' Will Swinney said.
And one steeped in titles.
J.D. Davis, a senior who started seven games the past two years, remembers how he and his brother, Judah, loved hearing about Clemson from their father, nicknamed ''The Judge'' for his decisive hits. Jeff, currently Clemson's assistant athletic director for player relations, was an All-American and led the Tigers in tackles in 1981.
It was a legacy the Davis brothers wanted to continue and enhance.
''I can't put into words what we felt two years ago'' in beating Alabama, J.D. Davis said. ''It's a bond not many fathers and sons have.''
Jeff couldn't be prouder of his sons' hard work and how it has helped the program succeed. Watching his guys win surpassed his own happiness at winning a title 35 years earlier. ''First of all, anytime your children can experience something you consider monumental in your life, I think any decent parent wants that,'' the elder Davis said. ''It's just sheer joy.''
Will Swinney was right next to his father, mother Kathleen, and brothers Drew and Clay, as the family celebrated the title win in Tampa, Florida, two years back. Then he was an incoming commit eager to prove he was more than the coach's son.
''This is something I've thought about since I first wanted to come to Clemson,'' Will Swinney said.
J.D. Davis said things won't change much in the family if Clemson beats Alabama - giving the sons two national titles to dad's one.
''I'd just tell him thanks for everything you've done for us to get here,'' he said. ''There'll be no trash talking `The Judge.'''
Brent Venables, who has led Clemson's defense the past seven years , has enjoyed coaching his son, Jake, this season. Jake has two tackles with the plan to redshirt this season. The elder Venables has also thought about what a win Monday night would mean with his son on the team.
''It's definitely going to be a different experience for him,'' Brent Venables said. ''And certainly, I've got an opportunity to appreciate that. Not talking about it a whole lot with him, but just enjoying the moment together.''

Clemson"s Swinney says suspended DT Lawrence will be missed

SAN JOSE, Calif. (AP) Clemson coach Dabo Swinney said suspended starting defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence will be missed against top-ranked Alabama on Monday night.
Swinney said Sunday that Lawrence has been a difference-maker in the middle of the line all season and would've been that against the Crimson Tide in the national championship game in Santa Clara.
Lawrence and offensive lineman Zach Giella and tight end Braden Galloway tested positive for ostarine in NCAA drug testing. The three missed Clemson's 30-3 victory over Notre Dame in the Cotton Bowl last week.
Earlier this week, Clemson athletic director Dan Radakovich said the school filed appeals for the three players.
Lawrence is a 350-pound junior who has started the past three seasons. He's also part of Clemson's short-yardage ''Fridge Package'' on offense.

Clemson vs Alabama 1/7/19 - NCAAF National Championship Picks & Predictions

CFB: 8:00 PM EST
Jan. 07, 2019
TV: ESPN
Latest Odds : ALA -6 Total 59.5

The College Football National Championship will take place on Monday night, when the Clemson Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide square off from Levi’s Stadium.

The second ranked Tigers won the ACC Conference Championship and are led by freshman signal caller Trevor Lawrence, who threw for 2,933 yards and 27 touchdowns this season. On Saturday, Clemson dismantled Notre Dame by a 30-3 final score. Justyn Ross caught six passes for 148 yards and two scores for the Tigers, who outgained the Fighting Irish by a 538-248 margin.

Through fourteen games, Clemson ranks fourth in the country in total offense and is scoring 43.3 points on average. Alabama is ultra-talented on defense, ranking tenth in yards allowed and giving up just 14.8 points per game.

The top ranked Alabama Crimson Tide are looking for their sixth national championship under the leadership of head coach Nick Saban. On Saturday, Alabama took another step towards winning their 18th national championship in program history with a 45-34 victory versus Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl. The Crimson Tide raced out to a 21-point lead after one quarter and put it in cruise control with a solid running game that gained 200 yards. Tua Tagovailoa threw completed 24 of his 27 passing attempts for 318 yards and four touchdowns.

For the season, Alabama ranks fifth in total offense and is scoring 47.7 points per contest. Clemson has all the tools necessary to stop the Crimson Tide with a defense that ranks fourth in the country and surrenders 13.7 points on average.

Recent Betting Trends:

Bonus Betting Pick: Clemson Tigers +6

This will mark the first time in the College Football Playoff era that two undefeated teams will meet for the national championship. Clemson and Alabama have met three times in the last four years, with the Crimson Tide taking care of the Tigers by a 24-6 final score in last year’s National Semifinal. Look for Clemson to gain revenge and spoil Alabama’s perfect season with an upset victory on Monday. Final Score Prediction, Clemson Tigers win in upset but grab the points just in case 30-27.

DUNKEL'S HIGHLIGHTED GAME

Clemson vs Alabama - Monday January 7, 2019
The Tigers face Alabama in Santa Clara, CA, for the national championship and come into the contest with a 13-3 ATS record in their last 16 neutral site games. Clemson is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Clemson (+6 1/2).

Clemson@Alabama

Game 151-152
January 7, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Clemson
123.114
Alabama
121.337
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Clemson
by 2
70
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Alabama
by 6 1/2
59 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Clemson
(+6 1/2); Over

Alabama X factor:
Safety Deionte Thompson will have his hands full with all of Clemson's receivers, but Hunter Renfrow is another animal. Thompson can ask his predecessor, Minkah Fitzpatrick, about that. Fitzpatrick, a first-round pick and perhaps the best defensive back ever to come through Tuscaloosa, was torched by Renfrow in the team's three previous playoff matchups, where he caught a combined 22 passes for 211 yards and four touchdowns, including the winner in 2016. This game -- barring an 18th year of eligibility -- will be Renfrow's last chance to hurt the Tide, and it's up to Thompson to stop him on those pivotal third downs and red zone opportunities where he has been particularly effective.

Clemson's X factor:
Renfrow seems the obvious answer here given his history against Alabama, but that success means he'll already have the Tide's attention. So instead, turn your attention to the defense, where Isaiah Simmons blossomed into the Tigers' leading tackler during the regular season and will be tasked with slowing down Alabama's slot receivers in the national championship game. Dorian O'Daniel was a key to Clemson's defense last season at the nickel/strongside linebacker spot, and Simmons has done admirably filling that hole in 2018, but this will be his biggest challenge of the season.

Alabama's breakout star:
He gets overlooked, with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and fellow wide receiver Jerry Jeudy dominating the postseason awards circuit, but Henry Ruggs III could be a real problem for a shaky Clemson secondary. The sophomore from Montgomery, Alabama, can take the top off a defense with his speed. This season, he has averaged 16.4 yards per catch. All told, he has 45 receptions for 738 yards and 11 touchdowns. If the focus shifts too much to the Biletnikoff Award winner, Jeudy, don't be surprised if Ruggs shows off his wheels and hands against the Tigers.


Clemson's breakout star:
Justyn Ross was already a known commodity even before demolishing Notre Dame's secondary in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, but this game comes with even bigger stakes and an even bigger spotlight. Then there's the little matter of Ross being from Alabama and a top Tide target on the recruiting trail. The freshman has been a force in a backup role for Clemson all season, with 847 yards and eight touchdown grabs, but if he has a big game against his home-state team, you can be sure it'll put his name into headlines well outside of Clemson.

Matchups to watch


When Alabama has the ball:
If you're looking for a weak link on the Clemson defense, it's the secondary. And rest assured that Tanner Muse & Co. are going to be tested by Alabama in ways that neither Notre Dame nor any other team the Tigers faced this season were capable of. We already mentioned Ruggs, and everyone already ought to know about Jeudy and his 1,176 yards and 13 touchdowns. But it's more than only those two. It's DeVonta Smith, last season's title-game hero who finally looked healthy again against Oklahoma when he caught six passes for 104 yards and a touchdown. It's also Jaylen Waddle, the lightning-fast freshman with 823 yards and seven touchdowns this season. And lest we forget, it's also Irv Smith Jr., an NFL-caliber tight end, who has seven touchdowns this season as well and could be a big-time red zone target Monday in Santa Clara, California.


When Clemson has the ball:
The Tigers led the nation in rushing between the tackles, averaging nearly 7.4 yards per carry. For the season, Clemson gave up only four sacks from pass-rushers coming up the middle. Those are good signs but hardly enough to make anyone confident going against the likes of Quinnen Williams. Alabama's defensive front, led by Williams, is stout, and it has been largely successful containing Clemson's running game in the three most recent meetings. The difference this time is that Trevor Lawrence, while athletic, is not a run-first QB who can make up for a quickly collapsing pocket or a lackluster night from his tailbacks. That means there's plenty of pressure on the Tigers' Sean Pollard, Justin Falcinelli and John Simpson to hold their own in the trenches. Lawrence's quick release takes some of the pressure off, and Travis Etienne has vowed a better performance than last season's Sugar Bowl from the run game, but Williams is the biggest obstacle Clemson has faced all season at the point of attack.

Alabama's biggest lingering question:
Will Christian Miller be available? And if he and his 8.5 sacks are able to take the field against Clemson, how close to 100 percent will he be? The senior is the defense's most consistent outside pass-rusher, and he didn't look so good the last time we saw him, limping off the field against Oklahoma because of a strained hamstring. With Terrell Lewis sidelined all season recovering from a torn ACL, there aren't many other proven options for Alabama to turn to if Miller can't be effective in this game. Maybe veteran Jamey Mosley steps up. Maybe, given the fact that Lawrence isn't as much of a threat to take off and run, Saban will consider using uber-athletic inside linebacker Dylan Moses in more pass-rushing situations. Or maybe it's one of the young guys like Eyabi Anoma or Cameron Latu who steps up and makes an impact. Whatever the case, someone needs to put pressure on Lawrence lest he be given the time he needs to carve up the secondary.


Clemson's biggest lingering question:
How good is the secondary? After shutting down Notre Dame, defensive coordinator Brent Venables addressed the issue in his postgame speech. "The weakness of this defense?" he asked. "No, you're the heart and soul." That's a lot of belief in a unit that struggled badly against Texas A&M and South Carolina, and the challenge of Alabama's passing game dwarfs those matchups. Still, Muse, Simmons, Trayvon Mullen and others have heard enough of the criticism that they'll be playing with something to prove. A strong performance against Tagovailoa would certainly quiet the critics, and there's a good chance it would translate into a national championship for the Tigers.

Alabama player under the microscope:
It's Jalen Hurts and his role in the trick plays that have come to define this series and how Hurts adds yet another dimension to that part of Saban's playbook. Because whenever the backup quarterback is on the field, it has to make defensive coordinators go crazy. If he's in for Tagovailoa at quarterback, you can't know if he's going to drop back and pass, or run the read-option where he's so effective. On the other hand, he has played some wide receiver, too, which presents its own set of problems. There, he can be motioned into the backfield in a jet-sweep action, or he can stay out wide and either run a traditional route downfield, or pull back, catch a backward pass and attempt a double-pass or run the ball. Throw in the fact that he could also set up in the shotgun alongside Tagovailoa and you've got even more possibilities for which to account.


Clemson player under the microscope:
The dominance of the guys to his left and right take some of the pressure off senior defensive tackle Albert Huggins, but with Dexter Lawrence suspended following a failed drug test for a performance-enhancing substance, there's no doubt Huggins is shouldering a big load. Lawrence is a massive body and can control the line of scrimmage on his own. That's too much to ask of Huggins, but Clemson's D needs both to make Tagovailoa uncomfortable in the pocket and slow down Alabama's downhill rushing attack. Huggins won't have to do it alone, but he'll need to hold his own.

Tagovailoa's top concerns:
We'll probably never know how healthy Tagovailoa is after undergoing surgery to repair a high ankle sprain a month ago. He said he thought he'd be 100 percent for the Orange Bowl, but then he got to Miami and put the number between 80 and 85. Then he looked great, throwing more touchdowns (four) than incompletions (three) before leaving the game with his ankle wrapped and in a walking boot. So who knows? The only thing we can say for sure is that his health is still worth monitoring. No one doubts that the Heisman Trophy runner-up and his 41 passing touchdowns will play Monday, but don't be surprised if Clemson's defense tries to rough him up early to see just how comfortable he is planting on his back foot and scrambling when the pocket collapses. As we saw against Georgia in the SEC championship game, a dinged-up Tagovailoa is a mortal Tagovailoa capable of making mistakes.


Lawrence's top concerns:
It'd be easy enough to suggest inexperience is the biggest issue for Lawrence, who has yet to have a typical "freshman moment." But the guy has never seemed the least bit flustered this season, and there's no reason to think that'll change here. Instead, the bigger worry is how he'll be used in the run game. He ran more than he had all season against Notre Dame, and Clemson's biggest offensive success against Alabama in the past was spurred by Deshaun Watson's mobility. Will the Tigers risk hits on Lawrence if it means forcing the Tide D to consider his legs as a weapon, too? No one will confuse Lawrence with either of his predecessors -- Watson or Kelly Bryant -- to go against Alabama in the playoff, but he's athletic enough to do some damage, and if it can neutralize the pass rush just a bit, Lawrence's ability to read a defense and get the ball out of his hand quickly could translate into a big day with his arm.

Alabama wins if:
Josh Jacobs, Damien Harris and Najee Harris combine for 200 or more rushing yards. Why? Because while Alabama is certainly capable of winning a shootout on the arm of Tagovailoa, it's probably not the safest route to a national championship. Just look at last week's Oklahoma game and how Jacobs & Co. were able to take the air out of the ball, limit the Sooners' possessions and preserve the victory. The final score -- Tide 45, Sooners 34 -- looked closer than the game actually was because the running game made the clock Oklahoma's enemy. Control the ball and it will allow Alabama to dictate tempo and give its defense time to rest against a talented Clemson offense with Lawrence, Ross and Etienne.


Clemson wins if:
Tagovailoa spends some time on his back. No one will argue with Tagovailoa's talent. He's incredible. But he also has been awfully comfortable for much of the season, and that has made things easy for this Alabama offense. But if the Clemson secondary can hold up in coverage and force Tagovailoa to his second or third options, that should give the pass rush enough time to make him more than a bit uncomfortable. Do that enough times, and perhaps Tagovailoa gets impatient, perhaps he gets hit and loses the football, perhaps it's enough to rattle him just a tick. In a game this evenly matched, that might be all it takes.

Alabama vs. Clemson predictions for college football national championship 2019
The CBS Sports panel of college football experts:

Dennis Dodd, senior college football insider:
Clemson is not intimidated, but Alabama is destined. The dynasty continues because Tua Tagovailoa and Bama's best-ever offense is able to survive in a game that goes down to the final two minutes. It's a field-goal game for destiny. Alabama 30, Clemson 27


Jerry Palm, playoff and bowls expert:
I honestly don't remember the last time I picked against Alabama, and that strategy has worked very well. This is a game the Crimson Tide know how to win. They have won five of the last nine national championships. However, if there is a team that can match them stride for stride, it is Clemson. The Tigers knocked off Alabama to win the title two years ago, so they have an institutional belief that they can win, which is something no other Alabama opponent can boast. In the end, though, this Alabama team has been too dominant all season long for me to pick against them. Alabama 24, Clemson 21


Tom Fornelli, SportsLine expert:
These two teams are almost mirror images of one another. They feature young, dynamic passers throwing to a set of game-breaking receivers, as well as running backs they can count on to move the chains. Defensively, they're both led by their defensive lines, and behind them are smart linebackers and talented secondaries that have occasionally proven to be the most vulnerable part of the defense. What's truly each team's weakest link, though, are its special teams units. While they're both similar, one team usually has somewhat of an edge on the other at every key spot, but neither has a huge advantage. That makes this game almost a coin flip in my eyes, but it's a coin flip I see Alabama winning a few more times than not. This is why I'm taking Alabama to win, but Clemson to cover because I don't think Alabama's nearly a touchdown better than this Clemson team. Alabama 34, Clemson 31


Chip Patterson, Cover 3 Podcast host:
I think Alabama will start fast (again) and then at some point the Tide's offense will slow (again). What will be different this time than in the Orange Bowl is that Clemson's red zone defense has a much better chance of getting stops and forcing field goal attempts than Oklahoma, which ranks No. 130 among FBS teams in opponent's red zone touchdown percentage. I think 35 is the magic number for Clemson to win, and it's going to take withstanding that first charge by Alabama in order to give Trevor Lawrence a chance to warm up and get settled. Look for Justyn Ross to be a huge factor in the second half with a Mike Williams-like breakout performance as yet another true freshman quarterback snags a national championship. Clemson 35, Alabama 33


Barton Simmons, Cover 3 Podcast host:
There are only two areas in this game where either team has an advantage and both tilt towards the Tide. Alabama can exploit Clemson's safeties in the pass game and its defensive line can give Clemson's offensive line some fits. Every other matchup is strength against strength. In particular, it's strength vs. strength at quarterback. The fact that Tua Tagovialoa looked perfectly healthy against Oklahoma one week ago suggests to me that he will be clicking on all cylinders and the offense will be clicking around him. We'll see this matchup again next year and maybe then Trevor Lawrence will be ready to take down Tua and the Tide. Not this time, though. Alabama 35, Clemson 31


Nick Kostos, SportsLine host:
Trevor Lawrence has his (first) moment in the sun -- he'll outplay Tua Tagavailoa as Clemson wins another national title. Clemson 34, Alabama 30


Barrett Sallee, college football writer:
This game will come down to which team generates the most pressure, and we found out last week that the absence of Dexter Lawrence doesn't make much of a difference for the Tigers. On the other side, Tigers quarterback Trevor Lawrence will have his hands full with Quinnen Williams and the stout Crimson Tide defense. Both coordinators will heat and try to confuse the signal-callers. We saw Georgia rattle Tua Tagovailoa with creative pressure with three and four, and Clemson will replicate and build off that to force Tagovailoa into uncharacteristic mistakes. Lawrence will take advantage of a Tide secondary that got picked on by Kyler Murray, spread the ball around to all of his different receivers and Hunter Renfrow will be the X-factor ... again ... in a title game for the ages. Clemson 35, Alabama 31


Ben Kercheval, college football writer:
As tough as it is to pick a winner, Clemson just seems to be peaking at the right moment. The move to quarterback Trevor Lawrence has been worth the risk, as he showed in his 327-yard, three-touchdown performance in the Cotton Bowl. This stage is not too big for him, and his combination of arm talent and mobility makes him a difficult quarterback to stop. However, Lawrence has plenty of help around him with running back Travis Etienne and perhaps the best group of wideouts in the country. Offenses should showcase themselves in this exciting game that, like so many previous editions, could also come down to the fourth quarter. Clemson 33, Alabama 30


Adam Silverstein, deputy managing editor:
Fan preferences aside, this is the best possible national championship that college football could have given us this season, and the fact that Alabama enters as a five-point favorite tells you all you need to know about how close this game will be. I like Quinnen Williams to reduce the effectiveness of the Clemson defensive front, but I also like Alabama's talented defense to slow down Trevor Lawrence enough. Remember, while Lawrence may be exceptional as a true freshman, he's not the Heisman Trophy winner; Kyler Murray kept Bama off balance with his legs, particularly late when the defense got tired, and Lawrence is more one-dimensional. Alabama is going to win this game. I keep going back-and-forth over which team will cover, however, and I think I'm going to wait until closer to kickoff to make a formal ATS pick. Alabama 38, Clemson 33


Brandon Wise, college football editor:
This game will be ugly from the word go. You want me to trust a freshman quarterback in the national title game against a defense that is starting to find its rhythm? The flying death machine that is the Alabama offense puts this one out of reach early and coasts to yet another title, leaving all of us wondering what the point is anymore. Alabama 38, Clemson 13


Jack Jorgensen, college football editor:
We can focus all we want on dynasties, legendary coaches and potential future first-round quarterbacks dueling leading into this one, but in the end, we'll be talking about the spectacular play of that dangerous Clemson defensive front one last time. All season long (for the most part) the Crimson Tide offense hasn't really faced much resistance. Even without Dexter Lawrence, the Clemson defensive line will cause headaches for Tua Tagovailoa and Co., massively disrupting their rhythm throughout. Freshman Trevor Lawrence does just enough leading the Tigers offense, and Clemson comes away with its second national championship in three seasons. Clemson 34, Alabama 28

National Championship Game Picks: Alabama-Clemson IV Predictions From Sports Illustrated Experts

*ANDY STAPLES
ALABAMA 38, CLEMSON 34
These two teams are so loaded that it’s tough to find where one can grab an advantage. But Alabama’s defensive line against Clemson’s offensive line feels like the matchup. That group allows the Crimson Tide to get just enough stops to hang on for the win.


Game MVP: Alabama DT Quinnen Williams. He’s the toughest player to block in the country, and he can wreck entire drives by himself.


*ROSS DELLENGER
ALABAMA 30, CLEMSON 24
This feels like another down-to-the-wire championship game between college football's two best programs over the past five years. These teams are oddly similar—a collection of young, athletic freaks on offense and a seasoned, aggressive front seven on defense. The Crimson Tide gets the slight edge because of their rock star quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, but this is a collision between titans that could go either way.


Game MVP: Tagovailoa. By the end of this thing, Tagovailoa will have those who voted against him for the Heisman Trophy doubting themselves.


*JOAN NIESEN
ALABAMA 31, CLEMSON 28
Alabama gets a team that can play with it consistently for a whole game in Clemson—but like Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, the Tigers won't have quite enough to stop the Crimson Tide, especially if star defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence isn't able to play. Alabama's defense certainly let up in the Orange Bowl's second half, and Nick Saban won't let that fly for a second consecutive game; expect a steadier performance from the Tide, though that doesn't mean Trevor Lawrence and company won't get enough big plays to stay in the contest until the end.


Game MVP: Tagovailoa. As he did in the semifinal, Tagovailoa is going to lead an offense that looks close to flawless in the title game, with help from the likes of Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs and the rest of the Tide receiving corps. If he can stay healthy, he'll be the reason Alabama wins its second straight title.


*LAKEN LITMAN
ALABAMA 35, CLEMSON 30
Alabama has been playing at a different level than everybody else all season, and while that’s not going to change, Clemson will undoubtedly provide the toughest challenge yet. Trevor Lawrence stretches the field and has explosive weapons who make plays for him, while the Tigers’ defense has umatched depth, despite losing first-round draft talent Dexter Lawrence to suspension. But the Crimson Tide’s defense will make enough stops, and Tua Tagovailoa will be too accurate to slow down.


Game MVP: Tagovailoa. The sophomore will win national title MVP for a second consecutive year after making minimal mistakes, showing off his consistent accuracy and proving why he should have won the Heisman.


*ERIC SINGLE
CLEMSON 42, ALABAMA 38
The secondary that everyone said was the weakness of Clemson’s defense played like it had something to prove in the Cotton Bowl, but Notre Dame’s receivers don’t have the speed that Jerry Jeudy and DeVonta Smith bring to the table. With another shootout on deck, Trevor Lawrence will have to be incredible, a challenge that he has met every time he’s been asked to since the Tigers’ close call against Syracuse in September. He poses a different type of dual-threat challenge than Kyler Murray did, because he moves more efficiently than anyone should expect a true freshman to and is more of a threat on zone-read keepers and broken plays than any 6'6" quarterback should be. (It would help his cause if the Tigers got Travis Etienne going early.)

Game MVP: Clemson DL Christian Wilkins. You can’t hope to beat Alabama without getting to Tagovailoa, and even though he’ll receive extra attention without Dexter Lawrence to worry about, Wilkins is the best bet to come up with a tone-shifting play in the backfield. He might even have a touchdown in him.


*MOLLY GEARY
ALABAMA 27, CLEMSON 24
I think this will be a close (and hopefully exciting) game, but Clemson is going to need to neutralize Tagovailoa the way Georgia did to win this, and that's going to be very difficult now that the QB is healthy. Clemson's elite defense is led by its run D, but Alabama, which has the nation's No. 1 passing S&P+ rank, can beat the Tigers through the air with Tagovailoa throwing to the likes of Jerry Jeudy, Jaylen Waddle, Henry Ruggs III and even running back Josh Jacobs.

Game MVP: Tagovailoa. The boring pick—and also the most likely one.


*SCOOBY AXSON
ALABAMA 38, CLEMSON 28
You will be seeing the same closing image to the 2018 college football season as you have several times over the past decade: Alabama hoisting another championship trophy. Even if Clemson somehow slows the Tide’s ground game, there has been no answer for their receivers on the outside, and Clemson’s secondary is in for a long night if its front four does not get consistent pressure or at least give Tagovailoa something to think about every time he drops back to pass. As talented as Clemson’s is, it just may be too much to overcome this season. Expect a back-and-forth affair that Alabama takes control of in the second half.

Game MVP: Tagovailoa. The sophomore has proved when he is healthy that there isn’t a defense in America capable of stopping him.


*MAX MEYER
CLEMSON 35, ALABAMA 31
There was certainly a drop-off in Tagovailoa’s production when he faced a top-tier defense, as shown by his numbers against Georgia, Mississippi State and LSU. Clemson and its ferocious defensive front will be his toughest challenge this season. The Tigers sacked Notre Dame QB Ian Book six times in the semifinal, and I think they will have the edge in the trenches in this one. On the other side, Trevor Lawrence & Co. will be able to find success against an Alabama defense that has allowed 62 points in its last two games. Clemson is the more balanced team, and I like Dabo Swinney to even up the score on Nick Saban in Alabama-Clemson IV.


Game MVP: Trevor Lawrence. Clemson’s defense will do enough to slow down the Tide, but the Tigers’ freshman quarterback is poised beyond his years and will enter the same rarefied air as Deshaun Watson in Clemson history.

[h=2]Clemson Bowl History[/h]

• Clemson played in 24 bowl game(s) since the 1995 season.
• They are 11-13 overall and 12-12-0 against the spread

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[h=2]Alabama Bowl History[/h]

• Alabama played in 22 bowl game(s) since the 1995 season.
• They are 14-8 overall and 12-10-0 against the spread

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Head To Head (Since 1995 Season)

These teams have met 2 times in the last 3 seasons (with 2018-2019 counting as one of those three) and are tied with a record of 1-1.
Below is their head-to-head history back through the 1995 season, not just over the past three seasons.

Date	Winner	Winner H/A/N	Score	ATS Cover	O/U Result
08/30/08	Alabama	Neutral	34-10	Alabama +4.0	Under 46.5
01/11/16	Alabama	Neutral	45-40	Clemson +6.0	Over 50.5
01/09/17	Clemson	Neutral	35-31	Clemson +6.5	Over 51.0
01/01/18	Alabama	Neutral	24-6	Alabama -3.5	Under 46.5