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Thread: Wednesday Service Plays 1/09/19

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  1. #26  
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    Jack Jones - Premium Picks
    Wednesday, Jan 09, 2019
    NBA: Take #517 76ers v #518 Wizards UNDER (229 -108) (7:05 PM EST) at pinnacle
    15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Wizards UNDER 229

    I always like backing the UNDER in the second game of these home-and-home situations. The 76ers just beat the Wizards 132-115 at home last night. Now they will be playing in Washington in a 2nd of a back-to-back situation or both teams. Both will be tired, and this fatigue plus the familiarity favors the UNDER.

    That 247-point outburst was a rarity between these teams as both shots lights out from the field with the 76ers hitting 55.7% and the Wizards 50%. Each of the previous three meetings between these teams saw 221 or fewer combined points and averaged just 213.7 combined points. I think we are getting a ton of value on the UNDER 229 in this game tonight.

    Washington is 19-9 UNDER after scoring 105 points or more in three consecutive games over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 5-1 in Wizards last six following a loss by more than 10 points. Tak e the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

    NBA: Take #533 Bulls (+9½ -103) v Blazers (10:05 PM EST) at pinnacle
    15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Chicago Bulls +9.5

    The Bulls are as healthy as they’ve been at any point this season. It’s no surprise that they are starting to cover some spreads and be more competitive. Indeed, the Bulls are 5-3 ATS in their last eight games overall coming into this showdown with the Portland Trail Blazers tonight. They are well-rested and ready to go playing on two days’ rest as well.

    The Bulls have been doing their best work on the road of late. Chicago is 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five road games. That includes outright upsets at San Antonio 98-93 as 9-point dogs, at Cleveland 112-92 as 1-point dogs and at Washington 101-92 as 4.5-point dogs. They also gave the Raptors are run for their money in a 89-95 loss at 10.5-point dogs.

    Portland will be playing its 4th game in 6 days tonight. The Blazers are starting to get bored playing five of their last six games at home. They f ailed to cover as 11.5-point favorites against the Knicks in their last home game, and I think they won’t be exactly excited to play the Bulls tonight, either.

    Chicago is 13-3 ATS in road games with a total of 200 to 209.5 over the last two seasons. The Bulls are 19-8 ATS in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last three years. The Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

    Plays against home favorites (Portland) - who score 102 or more points pre game against a team that scores 98-102 PPG, after scoring 110 points or more in two straight games are 71-34 (67.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with the Bulls Wednesday.

    NCAA-B: Take #826 Kansas (-5 -110) v TCU (9:00 PM EST) at BMaker
    15* TCU/Kansas ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas -5

    It’s safe to say the Kansas Jayhawks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. They are coming off just their second loss of the season, and one of their worst losses in recent memory. They lost 60-77 at Iowa State over the weekend and committed a season-high 24 turnovers to basically give the game away.

    “The thing that is good about getting beat rather than getting edged,” said Kansas head coach Bill Self, “is it’s very evident we have deficiencies and they need to be worked on.” It’s also safe to say the Jayhawks will have had a couple of very productive practices Monday and Tuesday leading up to this game.

    TCU is overvalued right now due to its 12-1 start this season and the fact that the Horned Frogs have covered eight of their last nine spreads coming in. To only be catching 5 points at Kansas is showing how much respect the Horned Frogs are g etting right now. And they have feasted on a very weak schedule with only one true road game thus far, and even their neutral court games have been against soft competition.

    Kansas has already been through the gauntlet and is battle-tested heading into the Big 12. Sagarin has Kansas as playing the toughest schedule in the country thus far. They have already faced the likes of Michigan State, Marquette, Tennessee, Villanova, Arizona State, Oklahoma and Iowa State.

    TCU has played the 151st-ranked schedule. They have only faced one team in the Top 50, while Kansas has already faced six teams in the Top 25 of Sagarin’s ratings, going 5-1 against them. KenPom has Kansas as playing the 3rd-toughest schedule, with TCU 186th. So both show Kansas with a massive advantage in strength of schedule thus far.

    Kansas is 14-3 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS losses over the last three seasons. The Jayhawks are 41-24 ATS in their last 65 games follo wing a road loss. Self is 14-3 ATS in home games after scoring 60 points or less in all games he has coached. The Jayhawks are 34-16-3 ATS in their last 53 games following a loss. Take Kansas Wednesday.

    *TOP PLAY* NCAA-B: Take #795 Ohio State (-5 -111) v Rutgers (7:00 PM EST) at pinnacle
    20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Ohio State -5

    The Ohio State Buckeyes should come back highly motivated for a victory tonight after blowing a big lead against Michigan State at home over the weekend. Head coach Chris Holtmann was not happy with their effort in the second half, and I expect his players to respond in a big way tonight.

    “We’re certainly not there yet,” Holtmann said afterward. “You let a team shoot 76 percent on your home floor and score 50 points in the second half, then you’ve got a long ways to go. That’s a fact for us.”

    Now the Buckeyes get to take out their frustration on Big Ten bottom feeder Rutgers tonight. The Scarlet Knights have lost five of their past seven games overall with their only two wins coming at home against Maine and Columbia. They lost by 11 at home to Michigan State and by 14 at home to Maryland, and they only beat Columbia by 3 as 11-point favorites.

    O hio State certainly did not take Rutgers lightly in their two meetings last season. The Buckeyes won 68-46 as basically identical 6-point road favorites last year. And they came back and won 79-52 as 14.5-point home favorites in their second meeting. Given those two results, and the fact that Ohio State is every bit as good as it was a year ago, the Buckeyes should have no problem covering this generous 5.5-point spread tonight.

    Rutgers is 3-11 ATS in home games after having lost four or five of their last six games over the past three seasons. Hortmann is 13-3 ATS in road games in all games he has coached at Ohio State. Holtmann is 12-2 ATS after playing a game as an underdog at Ohio State. The Scarlet Knights are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games. Bet Ohio State Wednesday.

    *TOP PLAY* NBA: Take #525 Spurs v #526 Grizzlies UNDER (205½ -107) (8:05 PM EST) at pinnacle
    20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Spurs/Grizzlies UNDER 205.5

    I like taking the UNDER in games between teams who just recently played each other. They become familiar with one another, and it favors the defenses. The Spurs just beat the Grizzlies 108-88 at home on Saturday, January 5th for 196 combined points. It was one of many low-scoring battles in this series recently.

    Indeed, the Spurs and Grizzlies have combined for 199 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings overall. They have averaged 195.1 combined points per game in their last seven meetings, so we are essentially getting 10-plus points of value on the UNDER on this 205.5-point total.

    Some things in the NBA change, but the Grizzlies stay the same. They are a team that relies on defense to win games. The Grizzlies are 30th in the NBA in pace at 97.6 possessions per game. The Spurs are 25th at 100.3 possessions per game, so these are two o f the slowest teams in the NBA. Memphis is also 27th in offensive efficiency, but 6th in defensive efficiency.

    The Grizzlies have been held to 107 or fewer points in 19 consecutive games, including 99 or fewer in 14 of those 19. Memphis is 16-4 UNDER off a road game this season. The UNDER is 8-3 in Grizzlies last 11 games overall. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
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  2. #27  
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    Dwayne Bryant


    5% Clemson UNDER 132

    4% Phoenix Suns UNDER 219.5
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  3. #28  
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    Jazz -9 NBA

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    Florida pk NCAA
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  4. #29  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nopener View Post
    Daily Roto NBA Player Props projections

    If you're wanting more prop types, let me know, and I'll post them


    Player Position| Team| PropType| Prop Line| Dailyroto Projection| Value Difference| % Difference



    tomas satoransky PG WAS Points 11 13.7 2.7 24.55
    andre drummond C DET Points 16 19.7 3.7 23.13
    spencer dinwiddie PG BKN Points 16.5 20.2 3.7 22.42
    andre drummond C DET Points 16.5 19.7 3.2 19.39
    tomas satoransky PG WAS Points 11.5 13.7 2.2 19.13
    joe ingles SF UTA Points 11 13.1 2.1 19.09
    collin sexton PG CLE Points 14 16.4 2.4 17.14
    josh hart SG LAL Points 12 14 2 16.67
    austin rivers PG HOU Points 12.5 14.4 1.9 15.2
    trevor ariza SF WAS Points 13.5 15.3 1.8 13.33
    collin sexton PG CLE Points 14.5 16.4 1.9 13.1
    bradley beal SG WAS Points 26.5 29.8 3.3 12.45
    reggie bullock SF DET Points 13 14.6 1.6 12.31
    donovan mitchell SG UTA Points 22 24.7 2.7 12.27
    austin rivers PG HOU Points 13 14.4 1.4 10.77
    clint capela C HOU Points 18 19.7 1.7 9.44
    derrick favors PF UTA Points 12 13.1 1.1 9.17
    evan fournier SF ORL Points 14.5 15.8 1.3 8.97
    rudy gobert C UTA Points 14.5 15.8 1.3 8.97
    al horford PF BOS Points 10.5 11.4 0.9 8.57
    lauri markkanen PF CHI Points 16.5 17.9 1.4 8.48
    bradley beal SG WAS Points 27.5 29.8 2.3 8.36
    reggie bullock SF DET Points 13.5 14.6 1.1 8.15
    jonathan isaac PF ORL Points 7.5 8.1 0.6 8
    garrett temple SG MEM Points 9.5 10.2 0.7 7.37
    brandon ingram SF LAL Points 19 20.4 1.4 7.37
    cj mccollum SG POR Points 19.5 20.9 1.4 7.18
    wendell carter jr PF CHI Points 8.5 9.1 0.6 7.06
    javale mcgee C LAL Points 11.5 12.3 0.8 6.96
    clint capela C HOU Points 18.5 19.7 1.2 6.49
    jayson tatum SF BOS Points 15.5 16.5 1 6.45
    jordan clarkson PG CLE Points 17 18 1 5.88
    damian lillard PG POR Points 24.5 25.9 1.4 5.71
    damian lillard PG POR Points 24.5 25.9 1.4 5.71
    marc gasol C MEM Points 14 14.8 0.8 5.71
    d'angelo russell PG BKN Points 21 22.2 1.2 5.71
    malcolm brogdon PG MIL Points 14.5 15.3 0.8 5.52
    dewayne dedmon C ATL Points 11 11.6 0.6 5.45
    jusuf nurkic C POR Points 16.5 17.4 0.9 5.45
    khris middleton SF MIL Points 16.5 17.4 0.9 5.45
    evan fournier SF ORL Points 15 15.8 0.8 5.33
    lauri markkanen PF CHI Points 17 17.9 0.9 5.29
    donovan mitchell SG UTA Points 23.5 24.7 1.2 5.11
    jaren jackson PF MEM Points 14.5 15.2 0.7 4.83
    derrick favors PF UTA Points 12.5 13.1 0.6 4.8
    joe ingles SF UTA Points 12.5 13.1 0.6 4.8
    thomas bryant C WAS Points 10.5 11 0.5 4.76
    brandon ingram SF LAL Points 19.5 20.4 0.9 4.62
    trae young PG ATL Points 16 16.7 0.7 4.38
    john collins PF ATL Points 18.5 19.3 0.8 4.32
    jarrett allen C BKN Points 12 12.5 0.5 4.17
    reggie jackson PG DET Points 14.5 15.1 0.6 4.14
    reggie jackson PG DET Points 14.5 15.1 0.6 4.14
    bojan bogdanovic SF IND Points 15.5 16.1 0.6 3.87
    mike conley PG MEM Points 21.5 22.3 0.8 3.72
    mike conley PG MEM Points 21.5 22.3 0.8 3.72
    josh hart SG LAL Points 13.5 14 0.5 3.7
    jeff green SF WAS Points 13.5 14 0.5 3.7
    raul neto PG UTA Points 11.5 11.9 0.4 3.48
    aaron gordon PF ORL Points 14.5 15 0.5 3.45
    eric bledsoe PG MIL Points 14.5 15 0.5 3.45
    nikola vucevic C ORL Points 18 18.6 0.6 3.33
    gordon hayward SF BOS Points 12 12.4 0.4 3.33
    kyle anderson SF MEM Points 9.5 9.8 0.3 3.16
    jayson tatum SF BOS Points 16 16.5 0.5 3.13
    domantas sabonis C IND Points 16.5 17 0.5 3.03
    rodions kurucs SF BKN Points 10.5 10.8 0.3 2.86
    kyle kuzma PF LAL Points 20.5 21 0.5 2.44
    rudy gobert C UTA Points 15.5 15.8 0.3 1.94
    dj augustin PG ORL Points 10.5 10.7 0.2 1.9
    kyrie irving PG BOS Points 21.5 21.9 0.4 1.86
    kris dunn PG CHI Points 13.5 13.7 0.2 1.48
    joel embiid C PHI Points 27.5 27.9 0.4 1.45
    trae young PG ATL Points 16.5 16.7 0.2 1.21
    dewayne dedmon C ATL Points 11.5 11.6 0.1 0.87
    nikola vucevic C ORL Points 18.5 18.6 0.1 0.54
    aaron gordon PF ORL Points 15 15 0 0
    jarrett allen C BKN Points 12.5 12.5 0 0
    jeff green SF WAS Points 14 14 0 0
    james harden PG HOU Points 38 37.9 -0.1 -0.26
    jusuf nurkic C POR Points 17.5 17.4 -0.1 -0.57
    cedi osman SF CLE Points 12.5 12.4 -0.1 -0.8
    cedi osman SF CLE Points 12.5 12.4 -0.1 -0.8
    john collins PF ATL Points 19.5 19.3 -0.2 -1.03
    giannis antetokounmpo PF MIL Points 27.5 27.2 -0.3 -1.09
    malcolm brogdon PG MIL Points 15.5 15.3 -0.2 -1.29
    james harden PG HOU Points 38.5 37.9 -0.6 -1.56
    tristan thompson C CLE Points 12.5 12.3 -0.2 -1.6
    terrence ross SG ORL Points 12 11.8 -0.2 -1.67
    jimmy butler SG PHI Points 19.5 19.1 -0.4 -2.05
    kris dunn PG CHI Points 14 13.7 -0.3 -2.14
    joe harris SG BKN Points 13.5 13.2 -0.3 -2.22
    kyle kuzma PF LAL Points 21.5 21 -0.5 -2.33
    bojan bogdanovic SF IND Points 16.5 16.1 -0.4 -2.42
    cj mccollum SG POR Points 21.5 20.9 -0.6 -2.79
    domantas sabonis C IND Points 17.5 17 -0.5 -2.86
    eric bledsoe PG MIL Points 15.5 15 -0.5 -3.23
    khris middleton SF MIL Points 18 17.4 -0.6 -3.33
    ben simmons PG PHI Points 17.5 16.9 -0.6 -3.43
    marcus morris PF BOS Points 14.5 13.9 -0.6 -4.14
    marcus morris PF BOS Points 14.5 13.9 -0.6 -4.14
    kevin huerter SG ATL Points 11.5 11 -0.5 -4.35
    marc gasol C MEM Points 15.5 14.8 -0.7 -4.52
    giannis antetokounmpo PF MIL Points 28.5 27.2 -1.3 -4.56
    kyrie irving PG BOS Points 23 21.9 -1.1 -4.78
    zach lavine PG CHI Points 20.5 19.5 -1 -4.88
    al-farouq aminu PF POR Points 10 9.5 -0.5 -5
    al horford PF BOS Points 12 11.4 -0.6 -5
    blake griffin PF DET Points 25.5 24.2 -1.3 -5.1
    alec burks SG CLE Points 13.5 12.7 -0.8 -5.93
    brook lopez C MIL Points 12.5 11.7 -0.8 -6.4
    brook lopez C MIL Points 12.5 11.7 -0.8 -6.4
    blake griffin PF DET Points 26 24.2 -1.8 -6.92
    victor oladipo SG IND Points 20.5 19 -1.5 -7.32
    victor oladipo SG IND Points 20.5 19 -1.5 -7.32
    thaddeus young PF IND Points 13.5 12.4 -1.1 -8.15
    thaddeus young PF IND Points 13.5 12.4 -1.1 -8.15
    lonzo ball PG LAL Points 12.5 11.2 -1.3 -10.4
    lonzo ball PG LAL Points 12.5 11.2 -1.3 -10.4
    zach lavine PG CHI Points 22 19.5 -2.5 -11.36
    danuel house PF HOU Points 10.5 9.3 -1.2 -11.43
    evan turner SG POR Points 9.5 8.3 -1.2 -12.63
    marcus smart PG BOS Points 8.5 7.1 -1.4 -16.47
    wilson chandler SF PHI Points 7.5 5.7 -1.8 -24

    Please dont post these here
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  5. #30  
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    Goodfella
    3* Hawaii -135
    3* LA LAKERS - 120
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  6. #31  
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    sorry if this isnt the right forum for this but would shaker consider his "best sport" cbb? i know it depends on what season it is for most of these guys lol but as far as record goes lately any ball park figures would be much appreciated again if this isnt the forum to post this in i apologize thinking of buying a month but trying to gather as much info as possible before never bought a package for more than a day or 2 of games. good luck fellas TIA
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  7. #32  
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    Jack Jones
    NBA
    20* UNDER SAN ANTONIO
    15* UNDER WASHINGTON
    15* CHICAGO

    NCCA
    20* OHIO ST
    15* KANSAS
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  8. #33  
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    Quote Originally Posted by JERSEYKID7 View Post
    Please dont post these here
    Any reason why? Is there a place to post them? These aren't mine projections. These are from Daily Roto's paid service, using their DFS system into the Sports Betting Props.
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  9. #34  
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    Seabass : 400 Florida , 400 S Florida , 400 S Jose St, 400 Duquesne , 600 Ga Tech 1000 Nichols St , 1000 Vanderbilt game under
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  10. #35  
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    LARRY HARTSTEIN
    philadelphia -3.5
    rockets +1.5
    spurs -2.5
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  11. #36  
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    ADAM THOMPSON
    portland -10
    suns +10
    spurs -3
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  12. #37  
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    Scott delaney
    100*
    kansas state
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  13. #38  
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    ZACK CIMINI
    jazz -9
    pacers +7
    spurs -2.5
    utah state -6.5
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  14. #39  
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    TOM FORNELLI
    suns under 218.5
    pacers under 214
    vanderbilt +1.5
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  15. #40  
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    MIKE TIERNEY
    northwestern -2.5
    cbb houston -1.5
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  16. #41  
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    MIKE BARNER
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  17. #42  
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    MICHAEL RUSK
    kansas -6
    auburn -3.5
    st joe over 138
    davidson -2
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  18. #43  
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    MICAH ROBERTS
    ole miss +3.5
    rockets +1.5
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  19. #44  
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    MATT NORLANDER
    florida state -10
    pittsburgh +3.5
    george washington +9
    auburn -4
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  20. #45  
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    Does anyone have Big Moves/NFAC?
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  21. #46  
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    Big Moves
    $1000 Rutgers +6
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  22. #47  
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    Marco d?
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  23. #48  
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    King Creole
    2* Dallas / Phoenix under 219.5
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  24. #49  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nopener View Post
    Any reason why? Is there a place to post them? These aren't mine projections. These are from Daily Roto's paid service, using their DFS system into the Sports Betting Props.

    Thank you for buying the service. Thank you for sharing/posting it. There is tons of bulls h it being posted on here that has no place....you did NOTHING wrong.
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  25. #50  
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    The DFS data he is showimg is actually a very effective tool for handicapping. I’m not familiar with basketball data but use similar data for baseball. Found it most useful for over under betting. Especially team totals. I used to get killed in baseball but DFS data has saved me. In order to get player values, intense algorithms are used to predict a players output. Baseball coaching is turning entirely to analytics. DFS data is very good because actuaries do all the work for you. We have to be able to read the data and make sense out of it. Trends are the best way to determine how the analytics are changing the values of the players and is ultimately a great tool for predicting performance. Study the numbers as suggested. I’m not a pro hoops player so I will pass.
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