Interesting Championship Game Facts

exploited17 · Jan 14, 2019

Going to look at some stuff and post some numbers

Home teams in Championship games who allow less than 17 points in their previous game since 2000 are 13-4 SU. Interesting to note in all four loses ended up being to the team that would go on to win the SB

Teams who score 40 or more are 4-11 ATS and 1-3 SU on the road since 1990. The only win(road) was Mr take a knee over the Falcons

Maybe I will post some more if I think of anything
Feel free to add

exploited17 · Jan 14, 2019

More of A SB fact...but
Since 1994 Championship teams to let up 10 or less points are 7-0 ATS in the SB

Acebb · Jan 14, 2019

Relevant games for the Pats:

Jan 11, 2014: NE 43-22 over Indy
Following week: Denver -5 beats NE 26-16

January 13, 2013: NE 41-28 over Texans
Following week: Baltimore +8 beats New England 28-13

January 14, 2012: Pats kill Denver 45-10
Next Week: Pats -7 beat the Ravens 23-20

So 0-3 ATS for them after scoring 40+ in the divisional.

wizard1183 · Jan 14, 2019

Acebb said:
Relevant games for the Pats:

Jan 11, 2014: NE 43-22 over Indy
Following week: Denver -5 beats NE 26-16

January 13, 2013: NE 41-28 over Texans
Following week: Baltimore +8 beats New England 28-13

January 14, 2012: Pats kill Denver 45-10
Next Week: Pats -7 beat the Ravens 23-20

So 0-3 ATS for them after scoring 40+ in the divisional.

But in only 1 instance of those games were the Pats a Dog right?

exploited17 · Jan 14, 2019

11 times since 2000 has a road team won SU on the road in the Conference Championship game
9 of the 11 defenses(ppg) were top 9 ranked

The only two times it happened it was the same team NY Giants. I think we all know they had a good defense. Don't know why they were ranked so high 14 and 27 that year

In other words if you are going to beat the supposed beast team in a winner take all game you need a pretty damn good defense

Pats are ranked 6
Rams 20

Acebb · Jan 14, 2019

wizard1183 said:
But in only 1 instance of those games were the Pats a Dog right?

Yeah, but it doesn't matter. Here are the results of teams that score 40 in the divisional since 1990

1990: Bills 44-3 Win; 51-3 Win
1993: San Fran 44-3 Win; 21-38 loss (on road)
1994: San Fran 44-15 win; 38-28 Win
1995: Pitt 40-21 win; 20-16 win
1998: Minn 41-21 win; 27-30 loss (in OT)
1999: Jax 62-7 win; 14-33 loss
Stl 49-37 win; 11-6 win

2001: Stl 45-17 win; 29-24 win
2004: Atl 47-17 win; 10-27 loss (on road)
2007: Packers 42-20 win; 20-23 loss
2009: Saints 45-34 win; 31-28 win
2010: Packers 48-21 win; 21-14 win
2011: Pats 45-10 win; 23-20 win
2012: Pats 41-28 win, 13-28 loss
SF 45-31 win; 28-24 win (on road)

2013: Pats 43-22 win; 16-26 loss (on road)
2017: Jax 45-42 win; 20-24 loss

The point totals drop significantly and the teams are underwater ATS

Let'sMakeSomeMoney · Jan 14, 2019

Last 5 years Home Team is 10-0 SU in Conference Championship round.
During that same interval Home Team is 8-2 ATS.

Not a prediction yet - but a rather interesting fact

exploited17 · Jan 14, 2019

Since 1983 teams who score over 30 points in the first half are 0-4 ATS
To be fair there are a few who are at the 27-30 mark and I believe they fail to cover a bit more than not, But some cover

Acebb · Jan 14, 2019

Brady has only three touchdowns and six interceptions in three career starts at Arrowhead Stadium. Brady is just 1-3 ATS vs KC since Reid took over in Kansas City, failing to cover by 13.3 points per game.

Kaboom · Jan 15, 2019

Great stuff gents !!

Thank you !!

halekulani · Jan 15, 2019

trends pointing towards saints/chiefs ML parlay?

Acebb · Jan 16, 2019

Brady has never lost (10-0) to a QB playing their 1st year in the playoffs

KC2Bback · Jan 16, 2019

Patrick Mahomes has NEVER lost in the Playoffs @)

powerz · Jan 16, 2019

Acebb said:
Brady has only three touchdowns and six interceptions in three career starts at Arrowhead Stadium. Brady is just 1-3 ATS vs KC since Reid took over in Kansas City, failing to cover by 13.3 points per game.

His QBR in those games was 89%

wizard1183 · Jan 16, 2019

KC2Bback said:
Patrick Mahomes has NEVER lost in the Playoffs @)

Pat Mahomes >Brady when previously never started in a playoff game and the season is 2018

exploited17 · Jan 16, 2019

Brady on the road playoff stats

2001 @ W Pitt 12 of 18 115 yards 0 TD 0 INT

2005 @DEn L 20 of 36 341 1 TD 2 INT

2004 @ Pitt W 14 of 21 207 yards 2 TD 0 INT

2006 @ SD W 27 of 51 280 yards 2 TD 3 INT

2006 @ IND L 21 of 34 232 yards 1 TD 1 INT

2013 @ Den L 24 of 38 277 yeards 1 TD 0 INT

2015 @ Den L 27 of 56 310 yards 1 TD 2 INT

0-2 in last 10 years without his dominant defense.
Only once in 7 games did he put up a +2 TD to Int ratio

exploited17 · Jan 16, 2019

Brees 6-1 at home in the playoffs. Only loss his first game. In those games he has a 19-3 TD to INT ratio

brendanjack · Jan 16, 2019

What’s crazy is when you compare Mahomes first year stats bar none. Holy shit off the charts blew out Brady manning breese wow how can Andy Reid fuck this one up .

wizard1183 · Jan 16, 2019

brendanjack said:
What’s crazy is when you compare Mahomes first year stats bar none. Holy shit off the charts blew out Brady manning breese wow how can Andy Reid fuck this one up .

Lmfao! I know right? He blew em out the water by only playing 1 game last yr! Kids amazing! I can see them winning multiple SBs...like the next 10 in a row beginning with this one! Next yr, opponents will cringe due to Mahomes throwing multiple 6k yrds per season with like 45 TDs a season with only 1 INT at most taking place. Kid is an NFL prodigy. The books will have to close shop because of this kid. It's like Jesus Christ on a Football field!!!

Acebb · Jan 16, 2019

Trends and things:

Since 1996: Teams are 5-25-1 ATS all time after scoring 40 in a playoff game and 2-11-1 after scoring 40 in DIV round
KC is only allowing 17.4 ppg at home while the Pats are allowing over 24 ppg on the road. NE has been out-yarded by a pretty large margin on the road this year
Andy Reid is 19-8 ATS vs. AFC East
The Patriots are 0-5 ATS all-time trying to reach back to back Super Bowls
Teams that are home 3 games in a row then hit the road for a playoff game (Pats) are 3-14 SU/ATS
Saints are 2-9 ATS as home favs in the playoffs and 0-6 ATS as a home fav less than 7 (didn’t cover against Carolina last year)
The Rams are only allowing 19.4 ppg on the road (7 points better per game) and the Saints allow 5.8 more ppg at home than they do on the road
Goff has won 14 of 17 starts away from home