Historically important stat that I use handicapping football

Loves2kickass · Jan 15, 2019

In my opinion a very important stat everyone should use in their NFL handicapping is "Points per 100 yards" on offense and defense. I compute offense and defense to give me a net average/ differential.

This stat favors the team's that make the most of their yards gained on offense and who also allows the least points as compared to yardage allowed on defense.

Turnovers on offense and defense are also computed with a baseline of -3 points for each turnover because they have a negative/positive result of points scored/ allowed.

Last season, after the regular season and before the playoffs started the top 4 teams using this stat/ formula that made the playoffs were #1Eagles, #1Rams, #3Patriots, #4Jacksonville. 2 of the top 3 teams made their respective championship game and a team tied for #1 won the Superbowl.

I accidentally deleted my results for this year's playoffs but the top 4 teams are all 4 teams that are remaining. KC, LAR, NO and NE, not in that order. I will compute the numbers again and post the top 4.

Loves2kickass · Jan 15, 2019

Correction. 3 of the top 4 teams made the conference championship games last season. This season the top 4 made it.

Loves2kickass · Jan 15, 2019

2018 points per 100 yards differential (Including takeawys/giveaways): #1New Orleans +2.40, #2Kansas City +2.26, #3New England +1.88, #4LA Rams +1.85

These numbers are computed at the conclusion of the regular season and before the start of the playoffs.

3pointdog · Jan 15, 2019

Loves2kickass said:
2018 points per 100 yards differential (Including takeawys/giveaways): #1New Orleans +2.40, #2Kansas City +2.26, #3New England +1.88, #4LA Rams +1.85

These numbers are computed at the conclusion of the regular season and before the start of the playoffs.

Interesting ...thanks for sharing

Michelangelo · Jan 15, 2019

I'll bet if you compute Home / Road numbers where appropriate that the gaps widen significantly.

Thanks.

Loves2kickass · Jan 15, 2019

Michelangelo said:
I'll bet if you compute Home / Road numbers where appropriate that the gaps widen significantly.

Thanks.

True. I did exactly that to predict the games score range for each team here...I'm not sure how accurate it will be.

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1130625

Serbone · Jan 15, 2019

Loves2kickass said:
2018 points per 100 yards differential (Including takeawys/giveaways): #1New Orleans +2.40, #2Kansas City +2.26, #3New England +1.88, #4LA Rams +1.85

These numbers are computed at the conclusion of the regular season and before the start of the playoffs.

Good stuff, but you also have to isolate them into buckets, look at the early games when they were fired up, recent end of year games and their situation, SOS, motivation, opponents game by game, weather, injuries, all of that, too. How did they do in segments. So one game they did spectacularly (eg NO + 2.40 if not for a certain game or two against crap team like Cincy they would be +2.26 same as KC just making this # up to illustrate).

It seems like a good tool but not adequate to make a decision based soley upon.

Loves2kickass · Jan 15, 2019

Serbone said:
Good stuff, but you also have to isolate them into buckets, look at the early games when they were fired up, recent end of year games and their situation, SOS, motivation, opponents game by game, weather, injuries, all of that, too.

It seems like a good tool but not adequate to make a decision based soley upon.

True.

Serbone · Jan 15, 2019

Loves2kickass said:
True.

HA I edited it with more explanation, if you could look at the game by game "points per 100 yards", all 16 games, to see how it went that would be even more helpful. You could see key matchups, how a team did against a good D, how they did against a lousy D...
Have that done by 9:00pm EST for all four teams, thank you!

Loves2kickass · Jan 15, 2019

Serbone said:
HA I edited it with more explanation, if you could look at the game by game "points per 100 yards", all 16 games, to see how it went that would be even more helpful. You could see key matchups, how a team did against a good D, how they did against a lousy D...
Have that done by 9:00pm EST for all four teams, thank you!

Haha I may be able to complete that by next year at this time.

Loves2kickass · Jan 15, 2019

Doing that for both teams last matchup against each other can be done rather quickly but it really wouldn't help at all since its only one game and no 2 games play out ther same. Ie, LACH/BALT, PHI/NO

Historically important stat that I use handicapping football

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