N. F. L. Championship Score & Total Predictions

Loves2kickass · Jan 15, 2019

These numbers are based on my other thread in the forum regarding the computation of home/away total points per 100 yards on offense and defense (differential), including factoring turnovers (giveaways and takeaways).

I will post the total point range for each team and the game total point range.

Loves2kickass · Jan 15, 2019

New England 15.42 - 19.54
Kansas City 25.09 - 28.05

Side Line Range: Kansas City -5.55 / -12.63
Game Total Points Range: 40.51 / 47.59

Loves2kickass · Jan 15, 2019

Los Angeles 22.01 - 26.58
New Orleans 20.30 - 23.34

Side Line Range: New Orleans -1.33 / New Orleans +6.28
Game Total Points Range: 42.31 / 48.92

Loves2kickass · Jan 15, 2019

Super Bowl:

#1 Kansas City vs. Los Angeles
#2 Kansas City vs. New Orleans

New England is eliminated.

Loves2kickass · Jan 15, 2019

Comments and questions are welcomed.

Loves2kickass · Jan 15, 2019

These numbers include ALL scoring, whether on offense, defense or special teams and turnovers. The games played also takes into account the weather for the games that were already completed but doesn't take into account weather for upcoming games.

We shall see how accurate this formula is at the completion of the games.

So, as far as these numbers are concerned, the plays would be Kansas City side with under game total & Los Angeles side with under game total.

Good luck!

WinnersareGrinners · Jan 15, 2019

I actually agree with all 4 picks.

It always seems to get missed that KC defence is verydifferent at home to on the road…could I see them being shredded by the Rams orSaints in a dome, yeah I could but that’s not the question here….Their passrush (at home) is elite and provided they play above themselves in the Run Dgame like they did against the colts I expect them to make things awkward forBrady.

Another point I think missed from last weekend is howbone-headed the Chargers game plan was on defense, add that to the fact it wasthe 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] straight road game and a cold early start its no wonder theylooked flat, the point is I think that game may have made NE look better thanthey actually are right now.

I think the Rams @ Saints game will be close, I’ve felt allseason that the Rams D will show up when it counts, they were pretty good vsDallas and its not like the Saints are clicking right now….they’ll have to do abetter job on Thomas but I give the Rams a very good chance, +3.5 seems a goodbet to me….

interesting to note in the 9 games Talib has played thisseason the Rams are only giving up 17.5 points per game, he’s pretty importantfor them to have.

Loves2kickass · Jan 15, 2019

Loves2kickass said:
New England 15.42 - 19.54
Kansas City 25.09 - 28.05

Side Line Range: Kansas City -5.55 / -12.63
Game Total Points Range: 40.51 / 47.59

Kansas City -3, -105 & UNDER 54 1/2, -110

Loves2kickass said:
Los Angeles 22.01 - 26.58
New Orleans 20.30 - 23.34

Side Line Range: New Orleans -1.33 / New Orleans +6.28
Game Total Points Range: 42.31 / 48.92

Los Angeles +3, +105 & UNDER 56, -110

Loves2kickass · Jan 15, 2019

Winners are Grinners said:
I actually agree with all 4 picks.

It always seems to get missed that KC defence is verydifferent at home to on the road…could I see them being shredded by the Rams orSaints in a dome, yeah I could but that’s not the question here….Their passrush (at home) is elite and provided they play above themselves in the Run Dgame like they did against the colts I expect them to make things awkward forBrady.

Another point I think missed from last weekend is howbone-headed the Chargers game plan was on defense, add that to the fact it wasthe 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] straight road game and a cold early start its no wonder theylooked flat, the point is I think that game may have made NE look better thanthey actually are right now.

I think the Rams @ Saints game will be close, I’ve felt allseason that the Rams D will show up when it counts, they were pretty good vsDallas and its not like the Saints are clicking right now….they’ll have to do abetter job on Thomas but I give the Rams a very good chance, +3.5 seems a goodbet to me….

interesting to note in the 9 games Talib has played thisseason the Rams are only giving up 17.5 points per game, he’s pretty importantfor them to have.

We'll see how this plays out. As far as both games are concerned the most glaring figure is New England's offensive numbers on the road and lack thereof as far as this particular stat is concerned.

Serbone · Jan 16, 2019

Rams OG Austin Blythe reported that they successfully read the Cowboy defense, >90% of the time they could tell whether or not Dallas was going to stunt. This is significant.
They could tell by certain players actions, like which hand in their stance was used on different plays, certain players positioning, etc, tipped them off... and Dallas is very heavily dependent on stunting, much more than most teams, they much prefer it over blitzing.
Jerry Jones, of course, is crying about it.
This means that the Rams incredible success (273 RY!) and dominance on offense was somewhat based upon this significant advantage, and this will almost certainly not be the case against the Saints.
I was leaning to Rams +3, lately, but this is cause enough to reconsider.
GL!

Loves2kickass · Jan 16, 2019

So its not just the Patriots who look for advantages huh lol

Acebb · Jan 16, 2019

My initial take is that the Pats and Saints beat better teams last weekend.
Dak on the road is garbage and the Colts looked terrible and had the weakest SoS in the NFL.

My concern with the Saints is that was a rough game and they are a little beat up and had to expend a ton of energy to win. The Pats cruised and the Chiefs looked excellent so it is really hard to pick a side there IMO.

wizard1183 · Jan 16, 2019

Acebb said:
My initial take is that the Pats and Saints beat better teams last weekend.
Dak on the road is garbage and the Colts looked terrible and had the weakest SoS in the NFL.

My concern with the Saints is that was a rough game and they are a little beat up and had to expend a ton of energy to win. The Pats cruised and the Chiefs looked excellent so it is really hard to pick a side there IMO.

Take the Rams. Saints best DT out. Will cripple them like a parapalegic kicking ass!

Loves2kickass · Jan 16, 2019

wizard1183 said:
Take the Rams. Saints best DT out. Will cripple them like a parapalegic kicking ass!

Haha

Loves2kickass · Jan 16, 2019

A few possible scores based on my numbers. KC 27-17, 27-20, 28-17, 28-20 or as close as 24-20.

LAR 26-20, 24-20, 23-20; NO 23-21, 21-20

Loves2kickass · Jan 16, 2019

Hopefully the NE/KC total climbs back up after word of no arctic blast but rather temps will be 19 degrees at kickoff.

G-Man! · Jan 16, 2019

Loves2kickass said:
Hopefully the NE/KC total climbs back up after word of no arctic blast but rather temps will be 19 degrees at kickoff.

Typically. Lines and totals are influenced by past history of betting habits.

Line movement occurs from a variety of things including weather. But moving from 57 to 54 is not unusual from action.

In my opinion, this line was moved to bring in more over bettors, but not because of the weather. Early action likely wasn't heavy enough to have an effect on moving it from the weather.

Odds maker was well aware of the forecast before it was put up.
I cant think of a game where the Patriots and the Chiefs are concerned that the bigger percentage of the public would bet under on any game during the season. So setting the line is based mostly on that factor.

Now if it was Chicago and Philly, then you would see all kinds of under action on any totals posted.

This game with KC and NE is an "over" type of perception. Its likely that less than 35 percent would bet under regardless of the line. Dropping it to 54 reduces that number as well and continues to move the masses over the total. IMO.

Somewhere in this line is a full 7 point allowance that would be safe for it to be posted at 57 in favor of the House and the knowledge of how the masses were going to be betting this game.

Loves2kickass · Jan 16, 2019

An easy under

bradyisgod · Jan 16, 2019

Good luck on your bets. These teams are all a lot closer this year than years past from what I remember. It's anyone's game.

G-Man! · Jan 16, 2019

Loves2kickass said:
An easy under

Did you change your mind? In 'rollltides' thread you said Over. ? Have you decided?

N. F. L. Championship Score & Total Predictions

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