Thoughts and leans for Conference Champions.

The old axiom "defense wins championships" might be true, but in today's NFL it's offense that gets you to that point.

The final four teams were the top four scoring offenses in 2018.
Chiefs, 35.1 points per game
Rams, 32.8
Saints, 30.8
Patriots, 28.1

Pats at Chiefs -3

Brady... He has a 3-4 record on the road in the playoffs, and believe it or not,
he hasn’t won a road playoff game since 2006.
Brady has been favored for 67 consecutive games or the last 1,218 days.
The matchup against the Chiefs will be the Patriots' eighth straight trip to the AFC title game.
If the Chiefs play zone like the Chargers, expect Brady to light them up.

That leaves the Chiefs only option, to outscore them. With Mahomes and company that's a distinct possibility.
Chiefs defense at home 17.4 points allowed per game this season. Chiefs defense on the road 34.6 points.
Oh and the ref will be Clete Blakeman. Pats record when he officiates is 4-6.

My lean Chiefs -3

Rams at Saints -3.5

The Rams Oline absolutely mauled the Cowboys front 7.
C.J. Anderson rushed for 123 yards on 23 carries, Todd Gurley rushed for 115 yards on 16 carries.
That may offset Kamara and Ingram.

All of a sudden the Rams found a rush defense. After allowing a league-worst 5.1 yards per carry in the regular
season they held Elliott to just 2.3 yards per rush while limiting him to a postseason career-low 47 yards.

No one has been able to slow down Mike Thomas and Marcus Peters is a liability. Advantage Saints.
If I'm Phillips I have Talib follow Thomas wherever he goes. Rams have a completely different pass defense with
Talib healthy. In games when he started, the Rams’ secondary ranked third in opposing passer rating.
When he didn’t start, they ranked 30th.

The Saints are now 6-0 in playoff games at the Superdome with Drew Brees and Sean Payton.

My lean Rams +3.5

Nice work, bud.

Cringe thinking of the Pats / Chiefs conclusion but you certainly did support it. The only X factor that I've not seen discussed is the big, important edge the Pats with B & B will have over Mahomes and Reid in the two minute offense. If it's the Pats who have to come from behind or burn clock, my money is on them. If it's the Chiefs in these situations, not so much. Andy Reid is abysmal at clock management.

Anybody want to talk about Mahomes in such situations? I'd like to hear what others with a closer lense have to say.

Michelangelo said:

Nice work, bud.

Cringe thinking of the Pats / Chiefs conclusion but you certainly did support it. The only X factor that I've not seen discussed is the big, important edge the Pats with B & B will have over Mahomes and Reid in the two minute offense. If it's the Pats who have to come from behind or burn clock, my money is on them. If it's the Chiefs in these situations, not so much. Andy Reid is abysmal at clock management.

Anybody want to talk about Mahomes in such situations? I'd like to hear what others with a closer lense have to say.

Click to expand...

Call it a gut pick. I've watched the Pats numerous times this year and something ain't right.
I watched the Steelers hold B+B to 10 points this year.

Hell I made the mistake of backing the Chargers last week, I expected them to be more competitive.
If I had known they were going to play zone for the first half I would have played the Pats.
I guess I gave Lynn more credit than he deserved for his game plan against the Ravens.

Bet what you see not what you read.