~ NFL Conference Games ~ Predictions & Analysis And Power Ratings By Hårr¥THëHÄT~

MR.HARRYtheHAT · Jan 16, 2019

Los Angeles Rams vs New Orleans Saints

The Saints have more weapons on offense. In a game projected to be a shootout, they should be able to prevail. The first playoff road start for Jared Goff is a big concern in this situation. The Rams do have the ability to run the football, but stopping the run is one thing that the Saints have done consistently for the season, Los Angeles counters with a talented defense that ranked 19th in yards allowed and surrendered 24.0 points on average. With the Saints Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram stretching the linebackers and safeties could make difference this match-up. Michael Thomas [ WR] for Saints is good against single coverage and also has an innate ability to find soft spots in zone coverage. What will Wade Phillips dial up to try and stop him? New Orleans ranked eighth in the league in total offense and scored at a 31.5 points per game clip. Through sixteen regular season games, Los Angeles ranked second in the league in total offense and scored 32.9 points on average. New Orleans ranked second in the league against the run and allowed 22.1 points per game.

Michael Thomas had 12 receptions for 171 yards and a touchdown as the go-to guy for Brees in the win over the Eagles. In the first meeting against the Rams, Thomas had 12 catches for 211 yards and a 72-yard touchdown that sealed the game in the fourth quarter. Thomas finished the season with 125 receptions for 1,405 yards and nine touchdowns. He led the league in receptions and finished sixth in the league in receiving yards. He also set the Saints franchise record in receiving yards. Winning at home is one thing; winning a playoff game on the road against Drew Brees at home is quite another. This is going to be a shootout like the wild wild west and the veteran QB Brees at home is worth laying the points for Saints.* [Bet> buying a 1/2 point [ hook] to Saints - 2 1/2 [at home]*

*Rating Power Updated After The Divisional Games

*Rating Power> Saints Home Rating 97.5 & Road Rating 95.0

*Rating Power > Rams Home Rating 97.0 & Road Rating 94.5

** Power Rating +3 Saints & Point Spread -3

New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City has covered the number in 5 of the last 7 versus New England. The Patriots defeated the Chiefs earlier this season 43-40 but Kansas City has matured since then and its offense will be too much for New England’s defense to stop with Patrick Mahomes, Damien Williams, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill proving to be too much for the Patriots to handle.The Patriots have actually lost three straight road playoff games, which highlights the importance of getting the top seed in the conference finals.Mahomes and the Chiefs are plenty capable of completing third-and-longs, but the bigger concern here would be getting the Patriots offense off of the field. I’m not sure how often that happens.As far as Mahomes, the Patriots were tied for 30th in sacks during the regular season. They are not an aggressive defense. They’ll sit back and look to limit big gains. That means that Mahomes will have time in the pocket. He shouldn’t be rattled by oncoming rushers and he’s clearly mobile enough to get away when one does show up in his grill.

If Deatrich Wise is able to go this week, it will help the Patriots. He was second to Trey Flowers with 4.5 of New England’s 30 sacks.The weather is a concern. The very early forecasts show temperatures in the teens and wind chills even colder than that and maybe little chance of snow. That may enhance the importance of the running games and keep the clock moving. The home team has won 10 straight conference final games while the favorite in AFC title games is 10-2 SU in the last 12. This pick is much more about the Patriots’ inefficiencies on the road. The Chiefs are the better team, and have a massive home field advantage. The Patriots are just 2-7 against the spread in their last seven AFC Championship games. Chiefs - 2 1/2 & buying the 1/2 point hook With Money Line Bet won From The Patriots Game[ divisional games ] Chiefs + $155 2X Money[ nickel to a dime]

*Rating Power Updated After The Divisional Games

*Rating Power> Chiefs Home Rating 96.0 & Road Rating 93.5

*Rating Power > Patriots Home Rating 96.5 & Road Rating 94.0

** Power Rating +2 Chiefs & Point Spread -3

~Sinopsis~ Saints - 2 1/2 [ at home ] & Chiefs -2 1/2 With Chiefs +$155 *2X Money Line [ nickel to a dime bet]

****NOTE:: Power Ratings compute offensive and defensive statistics into one number for each team, while accounting for factors like recent performances and strength of schedule. Power Ratings can be used as a baseline for relative spread index to compare current or future match-ups between two teams. The relative spread does not account for non-statistical factors like home-field advantage, recent injuries, game time decisions, rivalries, publicity, and weather.

*****NOTE:::All Bets Were Made Sunday Night & Monday night[ early line and money line betting ] >> The handicapping information taken from Internet Sports Media and other sources connected with NFL Sports.*****Stats taken from Power Ratings Danny Sheridan power rating, Maseys Powering Rating [ Las Vegas NV, Dunkel Index power, B&Rs Expert Consensus rating, with DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders Powering Rating ~[Cleveland OH] With Bobby Lancer Exclusive ratings & There Calculated Point Spreads With Trends & Statistics and Indicators. Intelligent Analysis of the NFL

Loves2kickass · Jan 16, 2019

GL. KC vs LAR in the Bowl

MR.HARRYtheHAT · Jan 17, 2019

~Sinopsis~ Saints - 2 1/2 [ at home ] & Chiefs -2 1/2 With a Correction[ typing err]>> Chiefs -$155 *2X Money Line [ nickel to a dime bet]

uscmd · Jan 17, 2019

BOL Harry.

MR.HARRYtheHAT · Jan 17, 2019

~Touch Down Wire~ [usa today ]

According to The Quant Edge the Saints’ defensive against success rate the run took a massive hit when Rankins wasn’t on the field this season. Teams averaged just 3.41 yards per carry when he was on the field and that skyrocketed to 3.83 without him. Simply put, the Saints’ defense looks very different without Rankins in the lineup.

To stop this juggernaut of a rushing attack, the interior defensive linemen need to hold up against double teams and play fundamentally sound. That is much easier said than done against this Rams’ offensive line. One wrong step by a defensive lineman and Gurley and Anderson can slip into the second level with ease. It truly takes an entire team effort to stop this rushing attack consistently.

Without Rankins, the Saints will be left with an interesting decision. Will they continue to play nickel against the Rams’ 11 personnel offense, hoping their interior defensive linemen can hold up? Or could they potentially play more nickel and/or run blitz, leaving them vulnerable against the pass?

My belief is that the Saints don’t want the Rams controlling the clock in New Orleans. They would prefer to get into a shoot-out than play a ball-control style of game against the Rams. They are likely going to dare Jared Goff to beat them down the field with big plays and/or force the Rams to run into stacked boxes.

Expect Saints defensive coordinator Dennis Allen to send blitzes and use multiple fronts and different personnel groupings to keep the Rams’ off balance. The last thing the Saints can afford to do is allow Gurley and Anderson to control the pace of the game on the ground. But without Rankins, that is going to be very difficult to do. It’s going to take an A+ game-plan from Sean Payton and Allen to stop Gurley and Anderson without their best run defender.

Compliments from ~Hårr¥THëHÄT~

MR.HARRYtheHAT · Jan 17, 2019

Washington Post [ Great Article Must Read ][ Rams at Saints & Patriots at Chiefs ]

NFC championship game: Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints

Kansas City’s defensive line stopped only 15 percent of rushers at or behind the line of scrimmage in 2018 (27th) and allowed 78 percent of rushers on third or fourth down, with two yards or less to go, to achieve a first down or touchdown (30th). Three of its starting defensive players, Xavier Williams (73rd out of 112 qualified players), Derrick Nnadi (81st) and Allen Bailey (100th), are among the worst run stoppers in the NFL this season per the game charters at Pro Football Focus.

On defense, however, we see a very different picture. New Orleans had one of the best defensive lines in football, stuffing 24 percent of rushers (third best) with a 9 percent adjusted stuff rate (fourth best). Los Angeles finished the regular season at 16 (22nd) and 7 percent (19th), respectively.
That edge is why a championship game featuring the Saints is among the two most likely outcomes for Super Bowl LIII at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The Saints averaged almost three points per drive in 2018, including the playoffs, while the Rams gnashed opponents for 2.7 points per drive, making them the second and third most-efficient offenses of the season.

*****Both have quality quarterbacks and both have elite players at the skill positions but the Rams have some of their most important players flying under the radar: not a single player on the Rams offensive line was named to the Pro Bowl or either all-pro team. That’s surprising, because the Rams pass-blocking and run-blocking were some of the best in the NFL this season.

AFC championship game: New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs are not so balanced. They had the league’s top offense this season, scoring 3.1 points per drive, including the playoffs, earning them Football Outsiders' top offensive DVOA ranking. However their defense, after adjusting for opponent, ranked just 26th, which includes a league-worst run defense.

Kansas City’s defensive line stopped only 15 percent of rushers at or behind the line of scrimmage in 2018 (27th) and allowed 78 percent of rushers on third or fourth down, with two yards or less to go, to achieve a first down or touchdown (30th). Three of its starting defensive players, Xavier Williams (73rd out of 112 qualified players), Derrick Nnadi (81st) and Allen Bailey (100th), are among the worst run stoppers in the NFL this season per the game charters at Pro Football Focus.

If you like offense, next week’s action should be everything you want on a football Sunday. For the first time in the Super Bowl era, the league’s Top 4 scoring offenses, based on points per game, will make an appearance in the conference championship game, per NFL Research. The Kansas City Chiefs led all teams scoring 35.3 points per game during the regular season, followed by the Los Angeles Rams (32.9), New Orleans Saints (31.5) and New England Patriots (27.3).Of course with such potent offenses on the field, it will be the ultimate test for each team’s defense, and how those units perform figures to decide which teams reach the Super Bowl.

Compliments from ~Hårr¥THëHÄT~

MR.HARRYtheHAT · Jan 18, 2019

NFL Predictions 17TH January 2019 By Gracenote Of A Reply To ~Hårr¥THëHÄT~

ABOUT THE RAMS: Cornerback Marcus Peters found himself covering old ground this week by downplaying a tasty morsel that gained traction shortly after the first encounter. Peters took issue with coach Sean Payton telling reporters in November that the Saints liked the 26-year-old lining up against Thomas, prompting Peters to promote the rematch before sarcastically saying of the coach that "we're going to have a nice little bowl of gumbo together." Pro Bowl selection Jared Goff ate up New Orleans' pass defense by completing 28 of 40 passes for 391 yards with three touchdowns, although he has failed to reach 200 yards in each of his last two outings. Former Saints wideout Brandin Cooks highlighted his fourth career season of 1,000-plus yards by making six catches for 114 yards and a touchdown in the previous meeting with New Orleans.

ABOUT THE SAINTS: The electric Alvin Kamara finished second to Gurley (21) in scrimmage touchdowns with 18, although the former had three (two rushing, one receiving) in the previous meeting with the Rams. While New Orleans showed its offensive chops in its high-scoring win over Los Angeles in Week 9, the Saints have shown some moxie on the other side of the ball in the latter half of the season. Cornerback Marshon Lattimore punctuated their divisional-round victory over the Eagles with his second interception in the latter stages of the fourth quarter. Linebacker Demario Davis (club-best 110 tackles) led the team with eight in last week's contest and seven versus the Rams.

EXTRA POINTS
1. Los Angeles features the NFL's second-ranked offense (421.1 yards per game) and third-ranked ground attack (139.4) while New Orleans resides eighth (379.2) and sixth (126.6), respectively.

2. The Saints have won their last seven home playoff games, with six coming under the watch of Brees and Payton.

3. Los Angeles Pro Bowl DT Aaron Donald registered a league-best 20.5 sacks this season, although the Rams failed to record one on Brees in Week 9.

Saints 31, Rams 27 [Prediction]

While potential NFL Most Valuable Player candidate Drew Brees holds the all-time league record for completions and passing yards, the now-40-year-old quarterback is returning to the conference title game for just the first time since the 2009 season. Pro Bowl selection Michael Thomas had 12 receptions for 171 yards and a touchdown to toy with Philadelphia's injury-ravaged secondary in Sunday's 20-14 divisional-round victory, but his 12 catches in the 45-35 win over Los Angeles in Week 9 resulted in a franchise-record 211 yards and a 72-yard score. The Rams rebounded from that defeat to emerge victorious in five of their next seven and ultimately outlast Dallas to advance to their first NFC title game since 2001. Pro Bowl selection Todd Gurley (115 yards, touchdown) and C.J. Anderson (123 yards, 2 TDs) had their way in Saturday's 30-22 win over the Cowboys, although the Saints' No. 2-ranked rush defense yielded just 80.2 yards per game this season and 92 to the Rams in Week 9.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (12-5): New England lost five times on the road -- three by double digits -- and struggled in December, but put on a clinic against the Los Angeles Chargers a week ago, scoring touchdowns on its first five possessions en route to a 41-28 cakewalk. Brady, who has won five Super Bowl titles and earned game MVP honors four times, threw for 343 yards and a touchdown on 34 of 44 passing against the Chargers and had nearly identical numbers against the Chiefs in mid-October. Rookie running back Sony Michel rushed for 106 yards and two TDs in the first meeting versus Kansas City and warmed up for the rematch by rumbling for 129 yards and three scores against the Chargers. The Patriots, who surrendered an average of 28.4 points on the road, did not register a sack but intercepted Mahomes twice in the first matchup.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (13-4): Mahomes failed to throw a touchdown pass for only the second time this season but Kansas City held the ball for nearly 40 minutes in the 31-13 win over the Colts as running back Damien Williams rushed for 129 yards and a score on 25 carries. Mahomes led the league's top-ranked offense to 31 second-half points at New England by throwing for 352 yards and four scoring passes, three of which went to speedster Tyreek Hill, who burned the Patriots' secondary with seven receptions for 142 yards. Tight end Travis Kelce, who had 10 touchdown passes during the regular season, was held to five catches for 61 yards in the first matchup but went for 108 yards on seven receptions last weekend. Kansas City's defense ranked 31st overall and against the pass but tied for the league lead with 52 sacks.

EXTRA POINTS

1. New England is looking to advance to its ninth Super Bowl in the past 18 seasons under coach Bill Belichick.

2. Mahomes could become the fourth quarterback, including Brady, to pass for 5,000 yards and reach the Super Bowl in the same season.

3. Patriots RB James White, who had a team-high 87 catches in the regular season, added 15 in last week's win over the Chargers. Chiefs 34, Patriots 30 [Prediction]

While potential NFL Most Valuable Player candidate Drew Brees holds the all-time league record for completions and passing yards, the now-40-year-old quarterback is returning to the conference title game for just the first time since the 2009 season. Pro Bowl selection Michael Thomas had 12 receptions for 171 yards and a touchdown to toy with Philadelphia's injury-ravaged secondary in Sunday's 20-14 divisional-round victory, but his 12 catches in the 45-35 win over Los Angeles in Week 9 resulted in a franchise-record 211 yards and a 72-yard score. The Rams rebounded from that defeat to emerge victorious in five of their next seven and ultimately outlast Dallas to advance to their first NFC title game since 2001. Pro Bowl selection Todd Gurley (115 yards, touchdown) and C.J. Anderson (123 yards, 2 TDs) had their way in Saturday's 30-22 win over the Cowboys, although the Saints' No. 2-ranked rush defense yielded just 80.2 yards per game this season and 92 to the Rams in Week 9.

Teams Statistics

DEFENSE STATS
RANK	TEAM	GP	PA/G	TA/G	RA/G
1 >>>>>	Saints	1	14	2.000	49.000
2>>>>>	Bears	1	16	2.000	42.000
3 >>>>>	Eagles	2	18	1.500	101.000
4 >>>>>	Colts	2	19	2.500	142.500
5 >>>>>	Texans	1	21	3.000	200.000

OFFENSE STATS
RANK	TEAM	GP	P	T/G	R/G
1>>>>>>	Chiefs	1	31	4.000	180.000
2>>>>>>	Rams	1	30	3.000	273.000
3 >>>>>	Chargers	2	26	2.500	54.000
4 >>>>>	Cowboys	2	23	3.000	107.000
5 >>>>>	Seahawks	1	22	2.000	73.000

*****Thank You For The Reply!!! Much Appreciated Gracenote*****

MR.HARRYtheHAT · Jan 18, 2019

~add on bets~

~Sinopsis~ Saints - 2 1/2 [ at home ] & Chiefs -2 1/2 With a Correction[ typing err]>>Chiefs -$155 *2X Money Line [ nickel to a dime bet][/QUOTE] >>>>>

Rams vs. Saints: First Team to Score 20 or more points: This is where Los Angeles grabs the advantage and holds on for the win over 20 points for +$135.

Most significant element for first-half betting is this: Play "under" on teams such as the Rams in a game involving two defensive squads permitting 335 to 370 YPG, after gaining 400 or more total yards in three straight contests. (36-11 record) Under 28 points

MR.HARRYtheHAT · Jan 18, 2019

Kansas city [ arrowhead ] weather forecast

While the Kansas City weather forecast for Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium has improved since earlier in the week, temperatures are still expected to get well below freezing, possibly reaching as low as 20 degrees for Patriots vs Chiefs Mother Nature could also deal Brady and Mahomes, and company winds that could top out at 15 mph.

Loves2kickass · Jan 18, 2019

MR.HARRYtheHAT said:
While the Kansas City weather forecast for Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium has improved since earlier in the week, temperatures are still expected to get well below freezing, possibly reaching as low as 20 degrees for Patriots vs Chiefs Mother Nature could also deal Brady and Mahomes, and company winds that could top out at 15 mph.

Game time temps expected as of now is 33 degrees

MR.HARRYtheHAT · Jan 19, 2019

Loves2kickass said:
Game time temps expected as of now is 33 degrees

Thank You !!!!!

MR.HARRYtheHAT · Jan 19, 2019

Three Key Differences In This Game > [Rams vs Saints ] [Written by ~Chris Altruda]

There are three key differences in this game compared to Week 9 involving personnel for the Rams. The first is the obvious one, Anderson joining Gurley in the backfield to create more headaches in trying to stop Los Angeles. McVay is one of the more inventive offensive schemers in the game, and how he gets both running backs outside the tackles will be pivotal in how successful the ground game.

The second key is that Peters will have help in this game as fellow cornerback Aqib Talib will be playing this game. Talib, who was part of the Denver Broncos team that won Super Bowl 50 in 2016, missed eight games with an ankle injury and returned in Week 13. In the six games since returning, the Rams have more interceptions (8) than TD passes allowed (7).

The third is the absence of wide receiver Cooper Kupp, who was lost for the season in Week 10 with a torn ACL. Kupp had five catches for 89 yards and a touchdown in the loss to the Saints, but his hidden value was as a run-blocker in bunch formations that helped Gurley get outside the tackles for big chunk plays.

Still, it is hard to pick the Rams in a place where the Saints have been so dominant all season save their season-opening loss to Tampa Bay. Right now, the lean is with the home team. The over/under is far more difficult to decipher, because while both teams have better defenses than in the first meeting in terms of execution (Saints) and personnel (Rams), both teams have offensive coordinators whose creativity and scheming can easily negate those improvements. Thus, the slight lean goes to the over.

**** New Orleans averaged 30.8 points per contest while allowing 21.6 points per game. They averaged 381.6 yards per game while giving up 343.2 yards per contest. A key to this contest is going to be the Rams ground game against this Saints defense, as New Orleans allowed just 78.4 yards per game rushing on average.

Written by ~Chris Altruda

Compliments from ~Hårr¥THëHÄT~

Loves2kickass · Jan 19, 2019

Good info Harry. The Rams-Saints game is a very even matchup based on key metrics. So close in my opinion 3 1/2 points is just too much to lay in this game. I imagine you believe the same with buying a 1/2 point. My question is if you're not willing to lay the 3 points with the Saints why not take the Rams +3 1/2. Good luck

MR.HARRYtheHAT · Jan 19, 2019

Reply to Loves2kickass [Rams vs Saints ]

Loves2kickass said:
Good info Harry. The Rams-Saints game is a very even matchup based on key metrics. So close in my opinion 3 1/2 points is just too much to lay in this game. I imagine you believe the same with buying a 1/2 point. My question is if you're not willing to lay the 3 points with the Saints why not take the Rams +3 1/2. Good luck

sAll Bets Were Made Sunday Night & Monday night[ early line and money line betting which I had little advantage on line movement Loves2kickass. If they were to change? .....Also line has changed from when I made my bet in some of books going + 3 1/2 [ by gametime all books might have this game at -3 1/2 Rams that you mentioned. I think it will be close Loves2kickass. I am predicting a field goal win at home Saints - 2 1/2 or more >>instead of +3 1/2 [ rather then field goal win for the Rams. It's all about the hook Loves2kickass !!!!! t

MR.HARRYtheHAT · Jan 19, 2019

MR.HARRYtheHAT said:

> All Bets Were Made Sunday Night & Monday night[ early line and money line betting which I had little advantage on line movement Loves2kickass. If they were to change? .....Also line has changed from when I made my bet in some of books going + 3 1/2 [ by gametime all books might have this game at +3 1/2 Rams <<Typing Err !! that you mentioned. I think it will be close Loves2kickass. I am predicting a field goal win at home Saints - 2 1/2 or more >>instead of +3 1/2 [ rather then field goal win for the Rams. It's all about the hook Loves2kickass !!!!!

xflrejects · Jan 20, 2019

Hour by hour for KC-NE shows 21-20 degrees from Q.1-Q.4
9 mph winds consistently
0% precip. entire game

great high scoring football weather...LOL

Loves2kickass · Jan 20, 2019

MR.HARRYtheHAT said:
sAll Bets Were Made Sunday Night & Monday night[ early line and money line betting which I had little advantage on line movement Loves2kickass. If they were to change? .....Also line has changed from when I made my bet in some of books going + 3 1/2 [ by gametime all books might have this game at -3 1/2 Rams that you mentioned. I think it will be close Loves2kickass. I am predicting a field goal win at home Saints - 2 1/2 or more >>instead of +3 1/2 [ rather then field goal win for the Rams. It's all about the hook Loves2kickass !!!!! t

Got it. Thank you for the response. Good luck to you

JJphilly · Jan 20, 2019

GL harry. Im torn between these 2 games today

croaker · Jan 20, 2019

Thanks Harry

The rams will find it much harder against Peyton, than they did against the Cowboys with their "We don't care if the opponent knows what we're going to do" scheme.

If the Chiefs D plays as well as they did last week, could be a long day for the Patriots....

BOL

croaker · Jan 20, 2019

Unlucky with the Saints.

After seeing the end of the Saints game I martindaled on the Patriots as I expect the NFL will generate more revenue with the international superstar Brady in the Superbowl.

~ NFL Conference Games ~ Predictions & Analysis And Power Ratings By Hårr¥THëHÄT~

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