How to bet Manny Pacquiao vs. Adrien Broner
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Manny Pacquiao, one of boxing's biggest stars, puts his WBA "regular" welterweight title on the line against Adrien "The Problem" Broner on Saturday at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
The fights pits one of the all time greats in Pacquiao (60-7-2, 39 KOs), against one of boxing's most controversial fighters in Broner (33-3-1-1 NC, 24 KOs).
Will the 40-year-old future Hall of Famer be too much for the 29-year-old challenger who brings a ton of talent into the ring? Or, will Father Time once again prove his invincibility and Broner gets the win?
Here's a look at where the money is going from Vegas bookmakers, along with opinions from boxing experts, boxers and trainers, plus my prediction.
Where is the money going?
Jeff Sherman, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook's manager, opened the fight with Pacquiao -220 Broner +180.
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"We have 65 percent tickets written and 86 percent money on Pacquiao and adjusted the price to -300/+240," Sherman said.
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The SuperBook opened the fight total at 10.5 rounds over -275 and under +225. After seeing some under support, Sherman adjusted the line to over -265 and under +215. He is also seeing heavy support on Pacquiao by decision.
Experts weigh in
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Pacquiao: From 2005 until 2011 Pacquiao was destroying fighters like Erik Morales, Marco Antonio Barrera, David Diaz, Oscar De La Hoya, Miguel Cotto, Ricky Hatton and Shane Mosley, to name a few. He won titles in eight weight classes and let's not forget he began his career as a 105-pound fighter before settling in at the welterweight division in 2008.
He posses wicked speed, tremendous ring IQ, punches from very odd angles and of his seven losses, has only been stopped three times and once in the past six years -- that being from the shot heard around the world by his longtime ring nemesis Juan Manuel Marquez in December 2012 when he was stopped at the end of Round 6.
While at 40 years old and near the end of his illustrious career, he showed boxing fans he still has it with a scintillating KO win over Lucas Matthysse last July in Round 7 in a fight he truly looked like the version of Pacquiao we were accustomed to seeing. He has fought 69 times and boxed a total of 462 rounds. He is a fan favorite because of his relentless style and action-packed fights. Pacquiao is a certain lock Hall of Famer.
Broner: Broner hasn't won a fight in nearly two years since he captured a split decision win over Adrian Granados in 2017. Broner is a four division world titleholder, winning the WBO junior lightweight title in 2011 over Vicente Rodriguez, the WBC lightweight title in 2012 over Antonio DeMarco, the WBA welterweight title in 2013 over Paul Malignaggi and the WBA junior welterweight title in 2014 over Carlos Molina.
The biggest signature win he has had might be Malignaggi, but the cards were close, except for the inexplicable Tom Schreck card of 117-111. Broner is a talented fighter who seemed to have the boxing world abuzz until December 2013 when Marcos Maidana thoroughly dominated him in a unanimous decision. Since then, he hasn't had a signature win and his out of the ring problems seem to supersede his ring triumphs. After losing to Mikey Garcia in 2017, he returned with a questionable draw against Jessie Vargas in April 2017. Many questions surround Broner as to his focus and dedication to the sport and this might be the last time we see him on a national stage if he cannot pull off the upset.
Betting the fight
The panel is backing Pacquiao 100 percent with everyone picking Manny to have his hand raised at the end of the fight. I agree and think Pacquiao has too much at even this juncture of his career while Broner hasn't shown me he can win this caliber of a fight.
Pick: Pacquiao -275 or better and also by decision.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Manny Pacquiao, one of boxing's biggest stars, puts his WBA "regular" welterweight title on the line against Adrien "The Problem" Broner on Saturday at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
The fights pits one of the all time greats in Pacquiao (60-7-2, 39 KOs), against one of boxing's most controversial fighters in Broner (33-3-1-1 NC, 24 KOs).
Will the 40-year-old future Hall of Famer be too much for the 29-year-old challenger who brings a ton of talent into the ring? Or, will Father Time once again prove his invincibility and Broner gets the win?
Here's a look at where the money is going from Vegas bookmakers, along with opinions from boxing experts, boxers and trainers, plus my prediction.
Where is the money going?
Jeff Sherman, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook's manager, opened the fight with Pacquiao -220 Broner +180.
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"We have 65 percent tickets written and 86 percent money on Pacquiao and adjusted the price to -300/+240," Sherman said.
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| FIGHTERS | OPENING ODDS | ODDS AS OF JAN. 17 |
|---|---|---|
| Pacquiao | -220 | -300 |
| Broner | +180 | +240 |
| Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook |
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The SuperBook opened the fight total at 10.5 rounds over -275 and under +225. After seeing some under support, Sherman adjusted the line to over -265 and under +215. He is also seeing heavy support on Pacquiao by decision.
Experts weigh in
- Colin Morrison (boxing sharp): "Broner is the ideal opponent for Pacquiao at this stage. With his low punch output and questionable power at 147, Broner will make Pacquiao look like he has turned the calendar back to 2009.
Pacquiao wide unanimous decision is my feeling but I wouldn't be surprised if a late stoppage occurs." - Abraham Gonzalez (boxing sharp): "Pacquiao is in great shape and that will be the difference in this fight against Broner. Broner will try to hold and use his size advantage to wear down Pacman but he will be unsuccessful as Pacquiao will pepper him with shots all night. In the end, Pacquiao will have his hand raised in a unanimous decision victory."
| FIGHTERS | RESULT | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Pacquiao | Decision | Even |
| Broner | Decision | 9-2 |
| Pacquiao | KO | 9-4 |
| Broner | KO | 6-1 |
| Draw | 25-1 | |
| Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook |
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Stephen "Breadman" Edwards (boxing trainer): "Pacquiao by majority decision in a closer than expected fight."
- Luke Chapman (boxing sharp): "Broner is the leopard that never changes his spots. Perhaps he has the tools to dismantle Manny but it's often a case of too little too late in his fights. Manny on the other hand, whilst not as explosive as he once was, remains quite fast on his feet and gets in and out quicker than most, slipping and countering on his way in. He'll do this with success all night. Give me Manny by unanimous decision +100."
John "Iceman" Scully (boxing trainer): "I can't see Broner beating him. I can see him giving Pacquiao some trouble at times but I don't see him pushing himself to do exactly what is needed to win. Pacquiao by big decision victory."
- Cynthia Conte (Ring TV Boxing correspondent): "This is a must-win for both Pacquiao and Broner. Pacquiao wants to show us the best we've ever seen of him even at 40 years young. He'll be pressing the action and bringing the fight to Broner. Pacquiao will be throwing those quick, wicked combinations followed by his punching power. But don't sleep on Broner. He's an excellent counterpuncher and defensive fighter. He's the underdog and he is hungry. It just depends on which Broner shows up that night in the ring. Pacquiao by decision."
Face to face
Evan Young (boxing sharp):"Pacquiao has been a pro boxer for about 60 percent of his life. He has lots of miles on him and is past his best. That said, he is still a superb prizefighter at 40. Pacquiao is a high-character guy and does everything better than Broner. I'm going with a comfortable decision win for Pacquiao or possibly a late stoppage."
- Percy Crawford (boxing sharp): "Broner's inability to outwork opponents not named Pacquiao makes this a fairly easy pick to me. Furthermore, I have asked myself the question, do I have faith that Adrien Broner can defeat an all-time great; albeit aging? No. Pacquiao, gets it done by decision. Broner will prove again that his best asset is his chin and ability to take a shot, which will allow him to hear the final bell."
- Jim Karas (boxing sharp): "Pacquiao enters this fight as the well-deserved favorite. Broner is 1-1-1 in his past three fights and long forgotten is the uber blue chip prospect that was a destroyer at 130 and 135 and poised to be the next big star in boxing. Instead Broner has floundered away with a series of underwhelming performances since moving up in weight. it's tough to envision the led footed, low-volume punch rate of Broner keeping up with Pacquiao's speed and high-volume punching. Don't envision a stoppage victory, so I will be backing Pacquiao to win by decision at +100."
- Michael Mohan (boxing sharp): "Pacquiao will most likely win by decision. Pacquiao decision play at even or better odds is a good play or Pacquiao money line at -225 or better."
- Rich Marotta (Hall of Fame Sportscaster): "Although Broner never wins a big fight, he usually makes them interesting. I suspect he will in this fight as well. Manny is an all-time great, and even if he is just 60 percent of his old self, that still beats most everyone. He'll put pressure on Broner and eventually will get to him with power shots. That said, Broner will land some clean blows on his own, but not enough to make Pacquiao really sweat. I suspect Manny can hurt Broner, but not the other way around. I look for a really competitive fight for 4-5 rounds, then it's all Pacman the rest of the way and he takes a clear decision."
- Matt Andrzejewski (boxing sharp): "The key to this fight is the style of Broner. He is a low-volume puncher and fights strictly in spots. This will play right into Pacquiao's hands. He will be much more active and carry the majority of the rounds simply on his volume. Broner does not have the power to hurt Pacquiao either and as such I see a wide decision win for Pacquiao."
- Jules Philippe-Auguste (boxing sharp): "I like Pac to win this fight by decision. Although Broner is very talented, I believe Pacquiao's speed, the way he uses angles, and punch output will be too much for Broner to deal with. Broner is tough, so I do not expect him to be stopped. But, Manny will show why he is one of the greatest champions to ever lace up the gloves."
Pacquiao: From 2005 until 2011 Pacquiao was destroying fighters like Erik Morales, Marco Antonio Barrera, David Diaz, Oscar De La Hoya, Miguel Cotto, Ricky Hatton and Shane Mosley, to name a few. He won titles in eight weight classes and let's not forget he began his career as a 105-pound fighter before settling in at the welterweight division in 2008.
He posses wicked speed, tremendous ring IQ, punches from very odd angles and of his seven losses, has only been stopped three times and once in the past six years -- that being from the shot heard around the world by his longtime ring nemesis Juan Manuel Marquez in December 2012 when he was stopped at the end of Round 6.
While at 40 years old and near the end of his illustrious career, he showed boxing fans he still has it with a scintillating KO win over Lucas Matthysse last July in Round 7 in a fight he truly looked like the version of Pacquiao we were accustomed to seeing. He has fought 69 times and boxed a total of 462 rounds. He is a fan favorite because of his relentless style and action-packed fights. Pacquiao is a certain lock Hall of Famer.
Broner: Broner hasn't won a fight in nearly two years since he captured a split decision win over Adrian Granados in 2017. Broner is a four division world titleholder, winning the WBO junior lightweight title in 2011 over Vicente Rodriguez, the WBC lightweight title in 2012 over Antonio DeMarco, the WBA welterweight title in 2013 over Paul Malignaggi and the WBA junior welterweight title in 2014 over Carlos Molina.
The biggest signature win he has had might be Malignaggi, but the cards were close, except for the inexplicable Tom Schreck card of 117-111. Broner is a talented fighter who seemed to have the boxing world abuzz until December 2013 when Marcos Maidana thoroughly dominated him in a unanimous decision. Since then, he hasn't had a signature win and his out of the ring problems seem to supersede his ring triumphs. After losing to Mikey Garcia in 2017, he returned with a questionable draw against Jessie Vargas in April 2017. Many questions surround Broner as to his focus and dedication to the sport and this might be the last time we see him on a national stage if he cannot pull off the upset.
Betting the fight
The panel is backing Pacquiao 100 percent with everyone picking Manny to have his hand raised at the end of the fight. I agree and think Pacquiao has too much at even this juncture of his career while Broner hasn't shown me he can win this caliber of a fight.
Pick: Pacquiao -275 or better and also by decision.
