Brooklynworm's playoffs, picks and predictions for nfl week 20

Search
Joined
Oct 1, 2005
Messages
3,148
Tokens
NEW ENGLAND COLDEST GAMES PLAYED 2004-2017
YEARRESULTSCOREOPPONENTTEMPERATURE
2004WIN41 – 27PITTSBURGH11 DEGREES
2010LOST14 – 33BALTIMORE20 DEGREES
2015WIN35 – 31BALTIMORE20 DEGREES
2016WIN16 – 3DENVER18 DEGREES
2017WIN26 – 6NY JETS13 DEGREES

KC COLDEST GAMES PLAYED 2004 – 2017
YEARRESULTSCOREOPPONENTTEMPERATURE
2004WIN45 – 17DENVER15 DEGREES
2008LOST31 – 38MIAMI10 DEGREES
2016LOST17 – 19TENNESSEE1 DEGREE
2017WIN27 – 24DENVER17 DEGREES

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS PLAYOFF RECORD AT HOME IN THE DOME ,DURING THE BREES ERA.
YEARRESULTOPPONENTSCORE
2006WINPHILADELPHIA27-24
2009WINARIZONA45-14
2009WINMINNESOTA31-28
2011WINDETROIT45-28
2017WINCAROLINA31-26
2019WINPHILADELPHIA20-14

LOS ANGELES RAMS (56.5) NEW ORLEANS (-3)
If you look at the chart above, this should give you an idea regarding the tale of the tape in this contest. Drew Brees, in his home dome, in the playoffs, is 6-0. Averaging 33.1 pig , and opponents 22.3 ppg. The home advantage swings from LA, to New Orleans. Last week, you seen a pathetic display by the Dallas Cowboys, get trashed in Los Angeles. Later to find out, that the Cowboys were tipping their defense, and that the players weren’t wearing the right cleats on a known slippery surface. There is a tradeoff key injuries for both squads. Rankin, is out, and he anchors the run defense for the Saints. Cooper Kupp is out, who is QB Goff’s number one receiver, and Goff’s QB statistics, have steadily declined since his injury. The difference is in this game is Drew Brees, over Gott, experience wise, and statistical wise. Predicted Score: New Orleans 31 Los Angeles 27, New Orleans -3, Over 56.5.

NEW ENGLAND (56) @ KANSAS CITY (-3)
I am going to make this short and brief, and you decide. Look at the New England Patriots, coldest games played chart above, during the Brady/Belichick era. The Pats went 4 – 1, and averaged 26.4 points per game, and allowed 20.0 ppg to their opponents. KC, played in 4 coldest games, since 2004. KC was 2-2, and scored 30.0 points per game, and allowed 24.5 ppg. As for quarterback, Mahomes, is a young successful dynamic player at his position. Tom Brady, is father time, with playoff experience, and the ability to still play quarterback in the NFL. Defensively, both teams are not outstanding, when it comes to the numbers. I give a slight edge to New England. The Patriots play more of a bend, and don’t break defense. KC, plays defense, by outscoring their opponents. I found this statistic, regarding the Chiefs. The Chief’s defense struggles when they play against better offenses, during this season. Against NE allowed 43 points, Pittsburgh 37 points, LA Rams 54 points, or an average 44.6. Since the weather forecast calls for -10 degree temps at game time, the running game comes into play. Recall, the Chiefs cut RB Hunt, and they haven’t really recovered at that position yet. The Patriots, have the four headed running back, comprised of Michel, White, Burkhead, and Devilin. Ball control, and clock management could be the key, to keep Mahomes from getting possession of the football. Predicted Score: New England 27 Kansas City 24, New England +3, Under 56.0.
 

Member
Joined
Sep 20, 2017
Messages
21,697
Tokens
So, NE is going to win because they won most of their games in the coldest weather while KC won half? And you are going back to 2004? Um....OK Yeah, completely ignore the teams are different today......most Pats wins were at home. And the playoffs are different
 

Member
Handicapper
Joined
Jan 18, 2017
Messages
8,460
Tokens
Its going to be 20 degrees, not the arctic weather that's been discussed all week.
 

Member
Joined
Sep 17, 2010
Messages
8,574
Tokens
History does not matter, sometimes. But it does, here. Cold weather game. NE. Brady. Belicheat.

In this spot we are talking about Belicheat and Brady, and incredible long term success story. They took apart a solid Charger team last week (though Chargers were on 3 game road trip, on artificial turf, early start... I know).
KC won last week, with 2 weeks rest, against a dome team, a team on their 3rd road game, a team that had been good but fortunate to get into the playoffs.

So there is merit to the approach that NE is more of a given commodity in this spot. Mahomes (WHAT A GREAT KID!) is talented and had a great year. NE might keep the ball out of his hands and stop him enough to win.

I have waffled on this game, liked KC at first, then when I heard 5 degree weather I went to the Pats... now that it appears to be 28 degrees, frankly, I cannot see a strong position for either. It is still a COLD WEATHER GAME, and I now barely lean to the Pats getting points because of their track record.

Might change by Sunday, but either way, I am going small!

GL!
 

New member
Joined
Sep 7, 2017
Messages
2,122
Tokens
Just my oponion,...Chargers were overrated like they were in years past. I'm not going to put too much stock into last weeks game vs SD. With that being said, I'm just going to wait till about an hour before kickoff before I make any final decisions. See if any crazy side will be crushed by touts but I highly doubt it. With KC speed and possible chance of specials team td with hill I'll put 2+ def/spec teams tds again +10000 for a small $25. Let's just hope we see some classics come Sunday instead of a dud like last week for the most part. I'm praying the storm here in Jersey doesnt shut down the FanDuel FanDuel sportsbook!!!!!!
 

Member
Joined
Sep 17, 2010
Messages
8,574
Tokens
Just my oponion,...Chargers were overrated like they were in years past. I'm not going to put too much stock into last weeks game vs SD. With that being said, I'm just going to wait till about an hour before kickoff before I make any final decisions. See if any crazy side will be crushed by touts but I highly doubt it. With KC speed and possible chance of specials team td with hill I'll put 2+ def/spec teams tds again +10000 for a small $25. Let's just hope we see some classics come Sunday instead of a dud like last week for the most part. I'm praying the storm here in Jersey doesnt shut down the FanDuel FanDuel sportsbook!!!!!!


Perhaps.
But why, then, do you not cite the very very similar KC win...
A cold weather win vs dome team, 3rd road game for Indy no rest, KC with a 2 week rest, Indy an artificial turf team on natural slippery grass turf, Indy was SO fortunate in their run to get into the playoffs (played weak final games, like Dallas in a total letdown spot, Titans with a scrub QB), Indy beat Texas but really did not move the ball that well and Watson was terrible, could not hit open receivers, threw the ball low and away, and of course pint sized muttonhead coach, O'Brien?
 
Joined
Oct 1, 2005
Messages
3,148
Tokens
No Home advantage in KC. Every fan in the stands, will be clapping with their winter gloves on. When 50,000 people clap, you will hear only muffled basketballs bouncing .
 

Member
Handicapper
Joined
Jan 18, 2017
Messages
8,460
Tokens
Now they are saying it will be 33 degrees. So much for the cold theories
 

New member
Joined
Sep 7, 2017
Messages
2,122
Tokens
Serbone,...absolutely agree. My point was more geared towards how the chargers always overrated and choke.
 

Member
Handicapper
Joined
Jan 18, 2017
Messages
8,460
Tokens
FYI New England has won 3 road games this season. 2 against the Bills and Jets. Impressive lol
 

Member
Handicapper
Joined
Dec 18, 2017
Messages
7,096
Tokens
Weather?
It is always over valued either way by some gamblers when it come to the temperature.

Even the charts above are misleading. Those are Trends
Saints may have an average of 33 points a game in home playoffs, but it doesn't matter for this game. Its all about what each team is doing now.
(Thats why my signature slogan is at the bottom of each post)

What matters today is:

What each team's factors are in this game?
What was their season like?
Who did they play?
What games were they missing starters in during the season?
Who is out now?
Who is back now?
Why did they lose games this season?
Why did they win?
How big are their differences in home and road games against winners and losers?
How good were the teams they lost to?
What starters were out for their opponents?
How good are their stats? < All categories.
Do you know what stats reveal the best possible outcomes?
What was the scoring in losses.
What was the scoring in wins.
How many times did they lose the turnover battle?
How many games did they win while losing the turnover battle? <Key factor.
What turnovers resulted in scores?
Did they play this opponent this year?
What was the result in the stats.?
Was the score an accurate indicator of the teams performance?
Do I read too much info from others who influence my decisions?
Is the info truly applicable to this game today?
If I win 10 in-a-row does that mean I will win 11?
Does the win-loss record really mean that I will win, by betting on the team with the best record?
Do you know why the line was posted at this number on this game???
Finally. After the game was over, why is it always perceived that the loser was over rated?

When anyone is capping a game, they need to know what available information has worked for them or why it didn't!.
 

Member
Joined
Sep 24, 2006
Messages
352
Tokens
Exploited.. why are you bein an asshole in this thread? Brooklyn undeniable brings the best info for every game every week. If you have a problem with him stay out , your not bringin anything here
 

Member
Joined
Sep 20, 2017
Messages
21,697
Tokens
Exploited.. why are you bein an asshole in this thread? Brooklyn undeniable brings the best info for every game every week. If you have a problem with him stay out , your not bringin anything here

I am absolutely.. NOT. He is pretty good I didn't argue that. He gave his opinion and IMO it make no sense. So, that everyone can look at everything equally.... his games should be given scrutiny. It benefits everyone to do so. Hey, if he just wants to post his plays and have no critique, I find it silly but will happily not post if it is causing a problem. All he needs is to say so
 
Joined
Oct 1, 2005
Messages
3,148
Tokens
Thank You doctor9. I never seen those assholes on my thread all season. Let the administrators handle this. Meantime , GL to you on Sunday. These people forget that I charge zero $, for my picks. As for the Cold weather games. I didn't find out that the temp would be 30 degrees. I was told -10 , at the time I posted.
Brooklynworm
 
Joined
Oct 1, 2005
Messages
3,148
Tokens
I am absolutely.. NOT. He is pretty good I didn't argue that. He gave his opinion and IMO it make no sense. So, that everyone can look at everything equally.... his games should be given scrutiny. It benefits everyone to do so. Hey, if he just wants to post his plays and have no critique, I find it silly but will happily not post if it is causing a problem. All he needs is to say so
Who the hell are you asshole?. I never seen you comment on my threads all season. I hope they kick you're moronic ass off this board.
 

Member
Joined
Sep 20, 2017
Messages
21,697
Tokens
If I get kicked off for my comments I am happy to not be a part of this forum. I have agreed with many of you picks and posts. And have posted soI wasn't aware it is a horrible crime to criticize picks. Hearing both sides of the debate benefits everyone. They can look at someones criticism and think maybe his opinion isn't so great. Or maybe it makes them agree more with you. I fail to see a problem. But say the word and I will never criticize, debate or give credit in your thread.
 

Member
Joined
Sep 17, 2010
Messages
8,574
Tokens
exploited17 is a good capper, he provides insight and information for everybody... ha, gets a little edgy when challenged, but that is OK.
His comments are fine, I have seen trolls and assholes on this site, but he absolutely is not one...
I like that he offers plentiful information, stats, perspective, sometimes outside of the common narrative, often unique. I do not agree with some of his rationale, but that is OK, too.
Posters who put up a pick (especially a GOY or large play or LOCK) with NO backup, I have very little use for...
 

Member
Handicapper
Joined
Jan 18, 2017
Messages
8,460
Tokens
exploited17 is a good capper, he provides insight and information for everybody... ha, gets a little edgy when challenged, but that is OK.
His comments are fine, I have seen trolls and assholes on this site, but he absolutely is not one...
I like that he offers plentiful information, stats, perspective, sometimes outside of the common narrative, often unique. I do not agree with some of his rationale, but that is OK, too.
Posters who put up a pick (especially a GOY or large play or LOCK) with NO backup, I have very little use for...

Agreed!
 

seer
Joined
Jun 23, 2006
Messages
14,000
Tokens
food for thought re:pats cold weather

they got caught for deflate gate-is it possible they deflated the ball All the cold weather wins b4 deflategate?
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,108,280
Messages
13,450,199
Members
99,404
Latest member
byen17188
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com