I popped up the way the stats had the playoffs working out around week 15 or so, not quite sure, the scores and totals worked out fairly accurate other than every team I had advancing lost the game outright ( I believe)..I included all the projected point spreads, totals and final scores, all just based on math.
Looking back at the comparison at the divisional round it was pretty tight with the actual outcomes ( no big deal) just making the point that there’s no real reason to divert from what should happen.
As we all know I’m huge on history repeating itself, repetitive patterns and trends, these things continue to happen over and over for a reason, but who knows what it is...just like the #’s, it just does, that why you get outrageous 30-1 ats or 3-20 o/u stats that have been built over 20 years (fictional example).
With that being said I was not going to get involved in superbowl info this week but one trend (the fast start) weighs in on the Afc cc game, even though it could be viewed as coincidence, it’s a long running coincidence.
**over the last 13 straight years every su superbowl winner had a set of 6 early required indications under their belt after week 4 of the regular season, 10 winners met all 6 requirements, the other 3 met 5 of the 6, no team has won when meeting less than 5 of 6, the teams who won it when only meeting 5 of 6 were....
The 2007 NY Giants
The 2008 Pittsburgh Steelers
The 2017 Philadelphia Eagles
........patterns.....just interesting to see.
This year’s remaining teams read as follows...
LA Rams 6 of 6
NO saints 5 of 6
NE patriots 6 of 6
KC chiefs 4 of 6
So, enough of that, on with the cc round.
1st a few general insights on the conference championship games over time.
**all ccg’s where the posted closing line was less than 10pts has seen the su winner go 49-5 ats s 83
**all ccg’s with a home favorite of 3pts or less have went 8-2 su + ats s 87
**all playoff games with a closing posted total of 54+pts have went 10-4 over s 98
**all ccg’s have went 5-2-1 over s 2014
LA Rams at N Orleans(3) 57...
**cc teams who won their divisional game su, scored 30+pts, won the game by 21pts or less and are on the road have gone 4-10 ats s 83 (4-20 su and 6-17-1 ats s 68)
**teams who defeated the defending sb champions in the wildcard or divisional round have went 1-10 su in the following round s 90
**of the 2 cc participants, the lower scoring su winner of their divisional game has went 21-12 ats in the ccg s 99 (La 30pts and No 20pts)
The Nfc conference championship game breakdowns since 1990 (ats and o/u)
When the closing line was....(1-3pts)......(3.5-6.5pts).....(7-9.5pts).....(10+pts)
The home team is................6-1 ats..........6-5 ats..........2-3 ats..........2-3 ats
The favorite is.....................5-2 ats..........5-6 ats..........2-3 ats..........2-3 ats
The o/u is...........................4-3...............7-4...............4-1...............4-1
When the closing total was...(34-40.5)....(41-45.5)....(46-50.5)....(51-55.5)....(56+pts)
The o/u is.............................4-4...............5-5...........7-0.............1-0............2-0
The nfc teams seem to be stronger as small home favs and score more if there’s a higher posted total.
NE at KC(3) 56...
**cc teams who won their divisional game su, scored 30+pts, won the game su by 21pts or less and are on the road have gone 4-10 ats s 83 (4-20 su and 6-17-1 ats s 68)
**of the 2 cc participants, the lower scoring su winner of their divisional game has went 21-12 ats in ccg s 99 (NE 41pts and KC 31pts)
**all playoff teams who scored 40+pts in a playoff game have went 4-27 ats in the following round s 95 (the official kiss of death)
The Afc conference championship game breakdowns since 1990 (ats and o/u)
When the closing line was....(1-3pts)....(3.5-6.5pts)....(7-9.5pts)....(10+pts)
The home team is................4-3 ats......5-1 ats............6-5 ats........0-4 ats
The favorite is.....................5-2 ats......5-1 ats............6-5 ats........0-4 ats
The o/u is...........................5-2...........3-3.................4-6-1..........1-3
When the closing total was....(35-40.5)....(41-45.5)....(46-50.5)....(51-55.5)....(56+pts)
The o/u is..............................7-2..............2-5.............3-5............0-1-1.........0-1
The afc teams seem to be better as medium home favs and score more when the posted total is lower
On with the show...tired of writing....
GAME.
Looking back at the comparison at the divisional round it was pretty tight with the actual outcomes ( no big deal) just making the point that there’s no real reason to divert from what should happen.
As we all know I’m huge on history repeating itself, repetitive patterns and trends, these things continue to happen over and over for a reason, but who knows what it is...just like the #’s, it just does, that why you get outrageous 30-1 ats or 3-20 o/u stats that have been built over 20 years (fictional example).
With that being said I was not going to get involved in superbowl info this week but one trend (the fast start) weighs in on the Afc cc game, even though it could be viewed as coincidence, it’s a long running coincidence.
**over the last 13 straight years every su superbowl winner had a set of 6 early required indications under their belt after week 4 of the regular season, 10 winners met all 6 requirements, the other 3 met 5 of the 6, no team has won when meeting less than 5 of 6, the teams who won it when only meeting 5 of 6 were....
The 2007 NY Giants
The 2008 Pittsburgh Steelers
The 2017 Philadelphia Eagles
........patterns.....just interesting to see.
This year’s remaining teams read as follows...
LA Rams 6 of 6
NO saints 5 of 6
NE patriots 6 of 6
KC chiefs 4 of 6
So, enough of that, on with the cc round.
1st a few general insights on the conference championship games over time.
**all ccg’s where the posted closing line was less than 10pts has seen the su winner go 49-5 ats s 83
**all ccg’s with a home favorite of 3pts or less have went 8-2 su + ats s 87
**all playoff games with a closing posted total of 54+pts have went 10-4 over s 98
**all ccg’s have went 5-2-1 over s 2014
LA Rams at N Orleans(3) 57...
**cc teams who won their divisional game su, scored 30+pts, won the game by 21pts or less and are on the road have gone 4-10 ats s 83 (4-20 su and 6-17-1 ats s 68)
**teams who defeated the defending sb champions in the wildcard or divisional round have went 1-10 su in the following round s 90
**of the 2 cc participants, the lower scoring su winner of their divisional game has went 21-12 ats in the ccg s 99 (La 30pts and No 20pts)
The Nfc conference championship game breakdowns since 1990 (ats and o/u)
When the closing line was....(1-3pts)......(3.5-6.5pts).....(7-9.5pts).....(10+pts)
The home team is................6-1 ats..........6-5 ats..........2-3 ats..........2-3 ats
The favorite is.....................5-2 ats..........5-6 ats..........2-3 ats..........2-3 ats
The o/u is...........................4-3...............7-4...............4-1...............4-1
When the closing total was...(34-40.5)....(41-45.5)....(46-50.5)....(51-55.5)....(56+pts)
The o/u is.............................4-4...............5-5...........7-0.............1-0............2-0
The nfc teams seem to be stronger as small home favs and score more if there’s a higher posted total.
NE at KC(3) 56...
**cc teams who won their divisional game su, scored 30+pts, won the game su by 21pts or less and are on the road have gone 4-10 ats s 83 (4-20 su and 6-17-1 ats s 68)
**of the 2 cc participants, the lower scoring su winner of their divisional game has went 21-12 ats in ccg s 99 (NE 41pts and KC 31pts)
**all playoff teams who scored 40+pts in a playoff game have went 4-27 ats in the following round s 95 (the official kiss of death)
The Afc conference championship game breakdowns since 1990 (ats and o/u)
When the closing line was....(1-3pts)....(3.5-6.5pts)....(7-9.5pts)....(10+pts)
The home team is................4-3 ats......5-1 ats............6-5 ats........0-4 ats
The favorite is.....................5-2 ats......5-1 ats............6-5 ats........0-4 ats
The o/u is...........................5-2...........3-3.................4-6-1..........1-3
When the closing total was....(35-40.5)....(41-45.5)....(46-50.5)....(51-55.5)....(56+pts)
The o/u is..............................7-2..............2-5.............3-5............0-1-1.........0-1
The afc teams seem to be better as medium home favs and score more when the posted total is lower
On with the show...tired of writing....
GAME.
