Prof's Rake and Take, and LS Freq reports for 2018

Prof_Factor · Jan 20, 2019

Longshot (20-1+) frequency by track for 2018

Code:

    LS (races) r/LS
--------------------
DED 38 (631)  16.60
RP  27 (475)  17.59
GPW 13 (232)  17.84
OP  27 (505)  18.70
DMR 17 (329)  19.35
KEE 15 (301)  20.06
KD   2 (41)   20.50
TP  21 (436)  20.76
MVR 32 (666)  20.81
ZIA 10 (214)  21.40
CD  25 (537)  21.48
IND 40 (877)  21.92
FG  28 (616)  22.00
HOU 12 (271)  22.58
PM   9 (206)  22.88
LS  16 (369)  23.06
GP  86 (2053) 23.87
MED  1 (24)   24.00
HAW 15 (365)  24.33
SA  41 (1073) 26.17
AQU 24 (633)  26.37
MNR 37 (982)  26.54
PRX 50 (1327) 26.54
BEL 30 (814)  27.13
PIM  4 (115)  28.75
LAD 20 (579)  28.95
WO  38 (1106) 29.10
SRP  5 (150)  30.00
LRL 45 (1360) 30.22
CT  36 (1146) 31.83
WRD  8 (259)  32.37
LRC  8 (259)  32.37
AP  18 (615)  34.16
GG  33 (1129) 34.21
TAM 23 (791)  34.39
TUP 22 (784)  35.63
CBY 14 (505)  36.07
SUN 11 (401)  36.45
DEL 17 (645)  37.94
EMD 14 (539)  38.50
SAR 10 (386)  38.60
PRM 15 (583)  38.86
PID 19 (788)  41.47
HST  8 (332)  41.50
PEN 27 (1290) 47.77
ELP  5 (241)  48.20
FL  21 (1016) 48.38
RET  2 (98)   49.00
BTP 15 (739)  49.26
FON  5 (255)  51.00
PLN  2 (109)  54.50
EVD 13 (753)  57.92
ARP  4 (242)  60.50
TDN 12 (799)  66.58
ALB  4 (268)  67.00
MTH  7 (534)  76.28
FMT  2 (155)  77.50
FP   2 (162)  81.00
FE   3 (310) 103.33

Prof_Factor · Jan 20, 2019

Given the average field size and takeout%, we can project what should be the average winning odds.
AveWinOdds = (FieldSize*(1-Takeout))-1
So, 10-horse fields with no takeout should average 9.0 win odds, and 10-horse fields with 20% take should average 7.0 win odds.
Using the same formula, we can extrapolate the total rake (or projected takeout) using actual win odds and fieldsizes and determine the "Rake and Take" difference.
Takeout = 1-((AveWinOdds+1)/FieldSize)
or for our purposes,
TotalRake = 1-((AveWinOdds+1)/FieldSize)

Presuming all the math is right, the chart below shows Total Rake, Track Takeout, and difference.

Inflated Rake is result of winning underlays (or returns below expected).

THIS CHART IS COMPILED FROM THE YEAR 2018. SAMPLE SIZES BELOW 200 RACES SHOULD BE VIEWED DISCRIMINATELY.

Track	Sample Size	Average Fieldsize	Average WinOdds	Average Return (WinOdds+1/Fieldsize)	Total Rake	Track Takeout	Rake minus Takeout
ALBUQUERQUE	268	8.1	4.67	$0.70	$0.30	$0.19	$0.11
ARLINGTON(dirt)	434	6.9	4.27	$0.76	$0.24	$0.17	$0.07
ARLINGTON(turf)	181	8.7	5.27	$0.72	$0.28	$0.17	$0.11
ARAPAHOE PARK	242	6.8	3.96	$0.73	$0.27	$0.19	$0.08
AQUEDUCT(dirt)	572	7.1	4.45	$0.77	$0.23	$0.16	$0.07
AQUEDUCT(turf)	27	8.1	5.57	$0.81	$0.19	$0.16	$0.03
AQUEDUCT(outer turf)	34	7.9	4.86	$0.74	$0.26	$0.16	$0.10
BELMONT(dirt)	468	6.7	4.71	$0.85	$0.15	$0.16	+$0.01
BELMONT(turf)	178	8.7	5.75	$0.78	$0.22	$0.16	$0.06
BELMONT(inner turf)	168	8.0	5.12	$0.77	$0.23	$0.16	$0.07
BELTERRA(dirt)	639	7.6	4.01	$0.66	$0.34	$0.18	$0.16
BELTERRA(turf)	100	8.6	5.57	$0.77	$0.23	$0.18	$0.05
CANTERBURY(dirt)	347	7.2	3.95	$0.68	$0.32	$0.17	$0.15
CANTERBURY(turf)	158	8.5	5.42	$0.75	$0.25	$0.17	$0.08
CHURCHILL(dirt)	436	7.9	4.95	$0.76	$0.24	$0.17	$0.07
CHURCHILL(turf)	101	9.1	5.28	$0.69	$0.31	$0.17	$0.14
CHARLESTOWN	1146	7.4	4.41	$0.73	$0.27	$0.17	$0.10
DELTA DOWNS	631	8.7	5.18	$0.71	$0.29	$0.17	$0.12
DELAWARE(dirt)	528	6.2	3.58	$0.74	$0.26	$0.17	$0.09
DELAWARE(turf)	117	8.6	6.59	$0.88	$0.12	$0.17	+$0.05
DEL MAR(dirt)	204	8.2	4.95	$0.73	$0.27	$0.15	$0.12
Track	Sample Size	Average Fieldsize	Average WinOdds	Average Return (WinOdds+1/Fieldsize)	Total Rake	Track Takeout	Rake minus Takeout
DEL MAR(turf)	125	9.5	6.68	$0.80	$0.20	$0.15	$0.05
ELLIS(dirt)	131	7.6	4.46	$0.72	$0.28	$0.17	$0.11
ELLIS(turf)	118	8.4	4.78	$0.69	$0.31	$0.17	$0.14
EMERALD DOWNS	539	7.0	4.60	$0.80	$0.20	$0.16	$0.04
EVANGELINE(dirt)	629	7.7	3.98	$0.65	$0.35	$0.17	$0.18
EVANGELINE(turf)	124	7.4	3.97	$0.67	$0.33	$0.17	$0.16
FORT ERIE(dirt)	227	6.1	3.27	$0.70	$0.30	$0.17	$0.13
FORT ERIE(turf)	83	7.5	4.19	$0.69	$0.31	$0.17	$0.14
FAIRGROUNDS(dirt)	434	7.8	5.03	$0.78	$0.22	$0.17	$0.05
FAIRGROUNDS(turf)	182	9.4	5.89	$0.73	$0.27	$0.17	$0.10
FINGER LAKES	1016	6.5	3.66	$0.71	$0.29	$0.18	$0.11
FONNER	255	7.4	4.74	$0.78	$0.22	$0.18	$0.04
FAIRMOUNT	162	6.7	3.73	$0.71	$0.29	$0.17	$0.12
GOLDEN GATE(dirt)	908	6.8	4.67	$0.83	$0.17	$0.15	$0.02
GOLDEN GATE(turf)	221	7.1	4.02	$0.71	$0.29	$0.15	$0.14
GULFSTREAM(dirt)	1181	7.7	4.75	$0.75	$0.25	$0.17	$0.08
GULFSTREAM(turf)	872	9.1	6.04	$0.77	$0.23	$0.17	$0.06
GULFSTREAM WEST(dirt)	136	7.4	4.43	$0.74	$0.26	$0.17	$0.09
GULFSTREAM WEST(turf)	96	9.4	6.17	$0.76	$0.24	$0.17	$0.07
HAWTHORNE(dirt)	320	7.5	4.84	$0.78	$0.22	$0.17	$0.05
HAWTHORNE(turf)	45	8.5	4.70	$0.67	$0.33	$0.17	$0.16
Track	Sample Size	Average Fieldsize	Average WinOdds	Average Return (WinOdds+1/Fieldsize)	Total Rake	Track Takeout	Rake minus Takeout
HASTINGS	332	6.9	4.46	$0.79	$0.21	$0.15	$0.06
INDIANA(dirt)	688	7.7	4.92	$0.77	$0.23	$0.18	$0.05
INDIANA(turf)	189	8.9	6.73	$0.87	$0.13	$0.18	+$0.05
KEENELAND(dirt)	220	8.6	5.98	$0.81	$0.19	$0.16	$0.03
KEENELAND(turf)	81	10.4	7.42	$0.81	$0.19	$0.16	$0.03
KENTUCKY DOWNS	41	11.0	7.76	$0.80	$0.20	$0.16	$0.04
LOUISIANA(dirt)	397	7.3	4.58	$0.76	$0.24	$0.17	$0.07
LOUISIANA(turf)	182	7.9	5.39	$0.81	$0.19	$0.17	$0.02
LOS ALAMITOS	259	7.0	4.57	$0.79	$0.21	$0.15	$0.06
LAUREL(dirt)	1084	7.3	4.11	$0.70	$0.30	$0.18	$0.12
LAUREL(turf)	276	9.3	7.27	$0.89	$0.11	$0.18	+$0.07
LONE STAR(dirt)	237	7.9	4.56	$0.71	$0.29	$0.18	$0.11
LONE STAR(turf)	132	9.2	4.76	$0.63	$0.37	$0.18	$0.19
MOUNTAINEER(dirt)	843	7.2	4.16	$0.72	$0.28	$0.17	$0.11
MOUNTAINEER(turf)	139	8.1	6.57	$0.93	$0.07	$0.17	+$0.10
MONMOUTH(dirt)	389	6.6	3.07	$0.62	$0.38	$0.17	$0.21
MONMOUTH(turf)	145	8.5	3.86	$0.57	$0.43	$0.17	$0.26
MAHONING VALLEY	666	8.4	5.00	$0.71	$0.29	$0.18	$0.11
NORTHLANDS	282	7.3	4.40	$0.74	$0.26	$0.17	$0.09
OAKLAWN PARK	505	9.2	6.08	$0.77	$0.23	$0.17	$0.06
Track	Sample Size	Average Fieldsize	Average WinOdds	Average Return (WinOdds+1/Fieldsize)	Total Rake	Track Takeout	Rake minus Takeout
PENN NATIONAL(dirt)	1227	6.9	4.01	$0.73	$0.27	$0.17	$0.10
PENN NATIONAL(turf)	63	8.5	6.30	$0.86	$0.14	$0.17	+$0.03
PRESQUE ISLE	788	7.3	4.33	$0.73	$0.27	$0.17	$0.10
PIMLICO(dirt)	132	7.2	4.41	$0.75	$0.25	$0.18	$0.07
PIMLICO(turf)	90	7.0	4.05	$0.72	$0.28	$0.18	$0.10
PLEASANTON	109	6.6	4.14	$0.79	$0.21	$0.17	$0.04
PORTLAND MEADOWS	206	7.6	3.82	$0.63	$0.27	$0.18	$0.11
PRAIRIE MEADOWS	583	6.9	4.09	$0.74	$0.26	$0.17	$0.09
PARX(dirt)	1290	7.8	5.18	$0.79	$0.21	$0.17	$0.04
PARX(turf)	37	9.4	4.67	$0.61	$0.39	$0.17	$0.22
REMINGTON(dirt)	404	9.0	5.52	$0.73	$0.27	$0.18	$0.09
REMINGTON(turf)	71	9.8	5.30	$0.64	$0.36	$0.18	$0.18
RUIDOSO	151	7.1	3.74	$0.66	$0.34	$0.19	$0.15
SAM HOUSTON(dirt)	197	7.2	4.40	$0.75	$0.25	$0.18	$0.07
SANTA ANITA(dirt)	668	7.4	4.64	$0.77	$0.23	$0.15	$0.08
SANTA ANITA(turf)	405	8.6	5.30	$0.74	$0.26	$0.15	$0.11
SARATOGA(dirt)	244	7.2	4.68	$0.79	$0.21	$0.16	$0.05
SARATOGA(turf)	142	8.8	5.42	$0.73	$0.27	$0.16	$0.11
SUNRAY	150	7.0	4.04	$0.72	$0.28	$0.19	$0.09
Track	Sample Size	Average Fieldsize	Average WinOdds	Average Return (WinOdds+1/Fieldsize)	Total Rake	Track Takeout	Rake minus Takeout
SUNLAND PARK	401	8.6	5.50	$0.70	$0.30	$0.19	$0.11
TAMPA BAY(dirt)	539	7.5	4.49	$0.74	$0.26	$0.17	$0.09
TAMPA BAY(turf)	252	8.7	5.45	$0.74	$0.26	$0.17	$0.09
THISTLEDOWNS	799	7.3	3.67	$0.64	$0.36	$0.18	$0.18
TURFWAY	436	8.4	5.02	$0.71	$0.29	$0.17	$0.12
TURF PARADISE(dirt)	617	7.7	3.83	$0.62	$0.38	$0.21	$0.17
TURF PARADISE(turf)	167	7.8	3.97	$0.64	$0.36	$0.21	$0.15
WOODBINE(dirt)	816	8.0	5.24	$0.78	$0.22	$0.15	$0.07
WOODBINE(turf)	290	8.9	5.36	$0.72	$0.28	$0.15	$0.13
WILL ROGERS DOWNS	259	7.2	4.50	$0.76	$0.24	$0.18	$0.06
ZIA PARK	214	8.5	4.88	$0.69	$0.31	$0.19	$0.12