Yeah, I already posted this. Sometimes you just see a line move and you know it is the rights side. I likes Pitt yesterday , but when I saw the line move to 13.5 I knew Duke would probably cover. Same here. It is always a bit scary taking a unranked(especially 9-8) team against the number 1 team in basketball. I really think the line move means Vanderbilt. And I don't think there are injuries. Can't guarantee that. Basketball is the best and worst chance to make money if you catch the right spots. In NBA you see it coming more with star players resting in certain games which gives huge advantages in certain situations. Similar in college but info may be harder to come by. You might want the early line but it may be more of a benefit to wait. More true in the nBA with a team laying points or if you want to take a dog against a top team hoping a star player is out
ya i see this everyday from another site, your right they mean shit, but i use it to support certain aspects, most of my handicapping
is fundamental meaning: scheduling,defensive fingerprint,coaching style and history, % of public $.
here are 2 examples : wisconsin opened at -6 then -5 and now -4 ,however 83%$ is on wisconsin to me 17% smart $ is on illinois
next example is nevada -19 , are they looking ahead to a road showdown vs unlv next week. they are hosting colorado st tonight which is #1 2pt shooting team
that hit 58% and ranked 2nd in offense eff.at 112.1 and #1 in eff fg% whereas nevada worst in 3pt shooting 27.6%, #9 eff fg%
the total in this game opened at 149.5 and has now hit 154, HOWEVER NEVADA LEADS the conference in defense in almost every
category.
IM GOING TO WAIT TO SEE HOW HIGH THIS TOTAL CLIMBS AND POUND THE SHIT ON THE UNDER.
THE OTHER FACTOR IS, AND THIS WORKED LAST NIGHT WITH UNLV and has worked for me many times.
I goto vegas often , and the one thing iv'e learned through the years by hanging in the sportsbooks is the public love
betting favs and overs, specially if their in the hole, which most degenerates often are, and if its a "vegas" game and
the last game on the slate , they will bet OVER.
ME I GO THE OTHER WAY.
FOOD FOR THOUGHT.
Vandy's gym is an awkward place to play for visitors. The elevated court can get some getting used to.
I'm looking at 2 of Vandy's home games this year that are somewhat comparable to Tenn coming to town. They dominated South Carolina in the 1st half, but SC came back in the 2H to win. They kept it close with Miss in the 1st half, but couldn't seal the deal in the 2nd and lost by 10. Both SC and Miss play a fast game similar to Tenn. The only difference is Tenn is better than both of those teams.
For these reasons, I took Tenn -8.5 tonight.
Good luck fellas.
I'm looking at 2 of Vandy's home games this year that are somewhat comparable to Tenn coming to town. They dominated South Carolina in the 1st half, but SC came back in the 2H to win. They kept it close with Miss in the 1st half, but couldn't seal the deal in the 2nd and lost by 10. Both SC and Miss play a fast game similar to Tenn. The only difference is Tenn is better than both of those teams.
For these reasons, I took Tenn -8.5 tonight.
Good luck fellas.
