NFL Superbowl 2019

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Dice, Sports & Cocktails
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Okay lets get this out the way right off the top

PATS ML $1310 to win $1000

I have been a nay sayer of the Pats for most of the second half this year & I won a few schekels fading them OTR late in the year, but I have been total impressed with them in the Playoffs.

Their ball control has been incredible in the PO's time of possession was 2-1 in KC 44 mins to 21, & 38-21 when they beat the Chargers.

The passing game for the Pats has been Terrific Brady is completing at 71% rate, 7.7 yrds / completion 345 yards per game for 91 % QBR
The Rams passing game has been pedestrian Goff 58.8% completion rate 7.1 yards / only 241 yards per game and 79.5% QBR - they really miss Cooper Cupp.........so we clearly know who the better QB is even before the resumes are looked at. Mix in Nerves for Goff this is no contest.

Both teams like to run the ball and we will see alot of attempts in this game, because both teams are not great at stopping the run the Rams Gave up 5.1 yrds per att this season the Pats 4.9 those are some of the worst # in the league in fact it is #32 & # 30. Both teams tightened up in the post season.

So now it comes down to coaching - Boy wonder vs the Brain.....& veteran leadership. The Brain has been here 9 times and keeps a tight rein on his players mix the fact that the PATS are veteran team they will know how to handle the circus. This being Boy wonder's first trip as a HC is clearly at disadvantage, plus he has some unpredictable players like Peters and Suh on his defense who come game time could become liabilities for their over aggressive play. We know that the Brain will have a scheme for Donald so I feel the advantage here goes to NE.

I can't argue against the sharp money movement which is now 6-1 in the PO's. Early Patriots money swamped the books and I am going to continue to follow that money.

So to recap - NE - Better QB, Coaching/leadership & Line movement.....Patriots ML ! Just win don't eff around with the points.

I also like the under with all the running plays and short passes there will be in this game I think it goes under.

I will be back with Prop bets later as I place them just wanted to get this wager written up first.

gl guys powerz
 

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Handicapper
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Bol
 

Dice, Sports & Cocktails
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Thanks Gman

From the Stat Fox Platinum Sheet

Rushing yards, passing yards per attempt, turnovers and time of possession are four key statistical categories that we like to use to determine their relationship to winning, both SU & ATS. The following trends will demonstrate the importance of these statistics:
• Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 38-13 SU & 35-13-3 ATS (73%). (The Patriots and Falcons each rushed for 104 yards in Super Bowl LI.)
• Teams that average more passing yards per attempt in the NFL title game are 41-11 SU & 35-14-3 ATS (71%).
• In the 52 previous Super Bowls, the team with more turnovers has won just six times SU and seven times ATS. The only winners that lost the turnover battle in the past 25 games were Pittsburgh in Super Bowl XL and New England in Super Bowl XLIX and Super Bowl LI. • Teams that win the time-of-possession battle in the Super Bowl are 38-14 SU & 37-12-3 ATS (76%).
• Teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories are 39-4 SU & 35-7-1 ATS (83%).
• Teams that win all four categories are 25-0 SU & 23-1-1 ATS. The only ATS loss occurred when the Patriots failed to cover a 7-point spread in a 24-21 victory over the Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX.

Hard to predict these angles
 

Dice, Sports & Cocktails
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Statistical SB trends - that could point towards winner

Here are some trends and the qualifying play for this year’s Super Bowl based upon teams’ stats headed into the big game. If the stat isn’t listed here, there wasn’t any significant trend forming:
• The team that averages more points per game offensively heading into the Super Bowl is just 4-13-1 ATS (24%) over the last 18 years. Qualifier for Super Bowl LIII: Against LOS ANGELES RAMS
• The team that converts a better percentage of third-down attempts heading into the Super Bowl is just 6-11-1 ATS (35%) in the last 18 years. Qualifier for Super Bowl LIII: Against LOS ANGELES RAMS
• The team with the better turnover differential heading into the Super Bowl is 5-10 ATS (33%) over the last 15 years. Qualifier for Super Bowl LIII: Against LOS ANGELES RAMS
• The team with the better scoring margin heading into the Super Bowl is 5-10 ATS (33%) in the last 15 years. Qualifier for Super Bowl LIII: Against LOS ANGELES RAMS

That’s four Against LOS ANGELES and none Against NEW ENGLAND.
 

Dice, Sports & Cocktails
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Coaching Trend - one for the Brain

• Bill Belichick is 40-14 ATS as head coach of NEW ENGLAND when facing an opponent that throws for an average of at least 260 passing yards per game. The average score was NEW ENGLAND 29.4, OPPONENT 21.3.
 

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Lastly an overview of the game again all from the Platinum sheets

While one of the Rams’ primary strengths is a passing game that ranked fourth in the NFL with an average of 8.3 yards per attempt during the regular season, New England is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS since the start of 2016 when facing an opponent that’s averaging at least 7.5 yards per pass attempt. The Patriots are 9-2 ATS (10-1 SU) in that same timeframe when facing an opponent averaging at least 260 passing yards per game. New England has also beaten up on teams that struggle defensively, going 19-2 SU and 17-4 ATS in that timeframe when facing an opponent allowing at least 350 total yards per game.
 

Dice, Sports & Cocktails
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Added my first props today

Here are 3 props i put in to back that up;
Def or special teams TD - YES +205 $50
Kick off return for a TD - Yes +1491 $25
Longest TD over 49.5 yrds - Yes +110 $75
 

seer
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gl. i believe with the venue in the dome rams will be way faster on both sides off/def. donald and suh will throw off the so called goats timing.
hate to see u on the public side
 

seer
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sorry not dome-field surface favours rams- though the roof could be closed
 

Dice, Sports & Cocktails
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HI Ya Seer - Sometimes the Public wins - but this line move was sharp $ that far that fast 2 weeks out. I would think most public guys are just know looking at the spread (3 days out) and I think 75% of the money has not even come in yet.
 

seer
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if what you are thinking-sharps bet big on rams your prolly right to balance action
 

Dice, Sports & Cocktails
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if what you are thinking-sharps bet big on rams your prolly right to balance action

Seer you are the Yoda of sports betting and sometime you talk like him - what are you trying to say here

Good luck! Some good information in this thread.

Thanks SS

I was just messaging with Sharky about SB and it reconfirmed my thought that NE is side....they are stacked on Offense

Michel
White
Burkehad

Gronk
Edleman
Hogan
Patterson

& the Goat

The Rams?

Gurley, is he injured or what ?
Missing Cooper Kupp has been a big blow to the offense
Goff not ready to trust this guy yet he struggled in December with 75 QBR in the PO's it's been 80. He had some really bad games OTR as well. Chicago, Seattle, Detroit, Denver

Check out these splits of him Home and Away

Home/AwayAttCompPctYdsAvgLngTDInt1st1st%20+SckRate
Home Games30320768.32,7379.07022313644.94418116.7
Road Games25815760.91,9517.6481099737.6251582.7


QBR rating down 30 points OTR, TD to INT ratio WOW


Which brings me to my latest prop adds

GOFF Interception YES -$133

TD's Yes
Sony Michel $125
Rex Burkhead $50 +213

looking forward to Sunday!
 

Dice, Sports & Cocktails
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Been Having a good week in the NBA so as I win there I have been adding props

More Points Second Half & OT $162
Rex Burkehead Longest reception O8.5 $108

Game Line Under 56 $110
 

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PWZ......BOL with your action buddy......thank you for all your time and effort this past season buddy........indy
 

Dice, Sports & Cocktails
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Made a $100 on props but cashed that Patriot ML.

Super Season again see you all in Aug in this room

Drinking from the top shelf tonight


Powerz
 

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