[h=1]Super Bowl LIII betting guide: Prop bets, total and spread[/h]
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Super Bowl LIII on Sunday will feature the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams squaring off at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
Our experts (Doug Kezirian, Preston Johnson, Mike Clay and Warren Sharp) provide their analysis on picking the game against the spread, the over/under and various prop bets they like.
Last year, Nevada sportsbooks took in a record $158.5 million in handle on the Super Bowl -- a number that's expected to be shattered this year. Our comprehensive Super Bowl LIII betting guide is below to help you with all of your wagering needs.
[h=2]New England Patriots (-2.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams[/h]Total: 56.5 (opened 58)
PickCenter: 78 percent picked New England
Johnson: This will be the last NFL game we can bet until the preseason games kick off in August, and there are a multitude of betting opportunities this Sunday. However, the best advice I can give to recreational bettors is not to go too wild betting the Super Bowl. While it is one of the biggest sporting events of the year, betting 10 to 20 times the amount of money you typically would for another game won't generally end well. Believe me when I say I've been there. What I will discuss are the edges that I do believe are worth betting this Sunday. From the side and total to a deep dive into the props, let's dig in.
My projections for this matchup are Rams -1.7 with a total of 58 points. That's right -- the wrong team is favored here. The numbers this season point to the Rams being the better team. I understand that giving Bill Belichick two weeks to prepare for the Los Angeles offense sounds threatening, but I will tell you this: Belichick was outcoached in each of the last two Super Bowls by new-school guys on the opposite sideline. Sean McVay won't be intimidated.
Todd Gurley's lack of effectiveness in the NFC Championship Game is certainly concerning (even with C.J. Anderson stepping up in his place), but McVay told the media on Tuesday that Gurley will be a big part of this game, so there isn't any reason to expect anything less.
I have been waiting <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">patiently and picking off Rams +3 numbers when they have become available in Las Vegas. I anticipate that more widely available +3s will appear outside of Las Vegas before this number starts to move down to +2 in the marketplace, so I would recommend waiting before locking in the Rams at +2.5 (still a significant edge worth betting if you are unable to grab a +3).
</offer>
While I show a small discrepancy in the total at 56.5 and my projection, I would likely need a 54 before I jumped in to bet the over (and even at 54, the way Super Bowls have been starting slowly entices me to wait and more than likely get a better number at some point in-game).
There aren't going to be too many plays for a loss in this matchup, which naturally bodes well for both offenses. It might take some time for the offenses to really open up, but when they do, I expect there to be touchdowns scored. Both New England and Los Angeles ranked outside the top 15 in the league in defensive efficiency this season, and I don't see any reason for that to suddenly change.
Pick: Rams +2.5 (worth waiting for potential +3s)
Lean: Over 56.5, ultimately looking to bet it in-game at a lower number
Sharp: I can't wait for this game to kick off. Matchups between two great teams extremely close in terms of total strength come down to two things: coaching strategy and execution.
From a strategy perspective, the Rams should use short targets to WRs on early downs. While they lowered the rate of play-action over the back half of the season, they need to use it often to slow New England's pass rush. They must pass the ball more from 12 personnel than their season average and must find a way to get productivity from their running backs in the passing game -- if it's not with Gurley, they should incorporate John Kelly in a minor role. I believe Los Angeles should the ball more from 11 personnel, and focus on run types that mirror the Patriots' weaknesses, which include outside zone (specifically from 11 personnel) and inside zone.
For the Patriots, they must stay aggressive on first-down passes and attack the Rams secondary beyond 15 yards. They should pass more from 21 personnel, as the Los Angeles defense against 11 personnel has improved in recent weeks. They should look to target RBs out of the backfield from 12 or 21 personnel, and do so primarily on first down, as Los Angeles is tremendous defending RB passes on second and third down. They should also be aware the Rams are very strong defending the slot and be prepared to move Julian Edelman around often to dictate matchups.
Both teams are extremely close in my custom early-down success-rate metric this season, both offensively and defensively. When they won the EDSR battle, the Patriots went 9-0 (just 2-5 when losing it). But the Rams went 6-0 when losing the EDSR battle, indicating their ability to overcome efficiency struggles, which the Patriots struggled to replicate.
Backing the publicly favored Patriots is not something I have interest in doing, but I do think that both offenses could go through a feeling out process, and for that reason, I think this game starts out slowly. While you can't get 28 in the first half any longer, because I see at least one FG in the first half, I think 27.5 still offers value and would look in that direction.
Pick: first half under 27.5
Lean: Rams +3 (wait for 3)
Kezirian: The oddsmakers opened L.A. as a favorite for a reason. I realize Belichick and Tom Brady have a giant edge in experience, but this Rams team started the season 8-0. That seems like a lifetime ago, especially for Jared Goff, but I feel the potent defensive front will do enough to limit Brady. Everyone is enamored with the Pats, but they were a Dee Ford offside away from being eliminated, and the Chiefs fired their defensive coordinator soon after the game. Wade Phillips has been in big games and presents a much stiffer challenge. I lean to the Rams and the under.
Lean: Rams +2.5, under 56.5
[h=2]Prop bets[/h][h=3]First penalty: Patriots (+130)[/h]Johnson: I'm sure the perception of a Belichick-coached team in the Super Bowl is that of near-perfection, or that the "big game" experience of the Patriots compared to the inexperience of the Rams may cause for jitters on the Los Angeles side of the football. Maybe everyone remembers New England only being penalized once last year against the Eagles in Super Bowl LII.
However, the Rams were actually penalized fewer times than New England this season (107 to 108). There isn't any significant reason that either the Patriots or the Rams should be priced at +130 to be called for the first penalty. This is similar to getting a price of +130 betting on heads in a coin toss. We would all bet heads. Digging into the details somewhat, I did find that the Patriots were the most penalized team in the NFL on special teams. Whether it be on the opening kickoff or after a clean opening drive resulting in a punt or field goal attempt, it certainly doesn't hurt our case.
[h=3]Total QB sacks: Under 3.5 (+110)[/h]
Johnson: I broke down the sack rate numbers in this matchup earlier and project just 2.92 sacks in this game. Getting a line of 3.5, let alone at plus money, offers quite a bit of value. I'm happy to bet against the unstoppable Ndamukong Suh and Aaron Donald pass-rush narrative and take the under here.
[h=3]Will Todd Gurley score a touchdown? (Yes -140, No +120)[/h]Johnson: I will be looking to take advantage of the public's perception of Gurley after his performance in the NFC Championship Game in New Orleans. At the price of -140, the implied probability of Gurley scoring a touchdown is 58.33 percent. This season Gurley scored in 14 of his 16 games (87.5 percent). Even in limited action against the Saints, Gurley managed to find the end zone. I'm taking the reduced price here all day.
Pick: Yes -140
Clay: In seven games since their Week 12 bye, the Rams have scored 19 offensive touchdowns (2.7 per game). Of those 19, only seven were passes (four of which came in one game). That run-first mentality near the goal line means there's a good chance the Rams find the end zone on the ground Sunday.
Of course, that doesn't mean Gurley will be the man to get the job done. In two playoff games, Anderson paces the team with four carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line (he scored on two). Goff has two carries inside the 5, and Gurley -- believe it or not -- has zero (his two scores were from 6 and 35 yards out).
Since joining the Rams, Anderson (5.7 YPC, 2.66 YAC, 6.9 box defenders per rush) has outperformed Gurley (5.0 YPC, 2.06 YAC, 6.4 box defenders per rush), and so it should come as no surprise if he paces the team in carries for the fifth straight game on Sunday.
Gurley has 23 touchdowns in 16 games this season, so this is a bold one, but at +140, it's worth the risk. By the way, Anderson scoring a touchdown can be had for +150, so consider going all in here.
Pick: No +120
[h=3]First TD: Todd Gurley (+700)[/h]Johnson: First-touchdown prop bets on Gurley throughout the Rams' regular-season games were typically priced +250 to +300 each week. I know it's the Patriots in this particular matchup and that they are more likely to score first than most of the Rams' opponents this season, but +700 is a severe overreaction to Gurley's poor performance two weeks ago.
[h=3]
More points scored in the 2nd half + OT (-160)[/h]Sharp: There will be plenty of points in this game, I just believe more will come in the second half thanks to strong halftime adjustments offensively.
[h=3]Sony Michel scores a TD YES (-130)[/h]Sharp: The Rams struggle tremendously to stop runs from 21 personnel. I think Michel (five TDs in postseason) will get more carries inside the 5-yard line than Rex Burkhead.
[h=3]Longest made FG OVER 46.5 (-125)[/h]Sharp: With two strong kickers, the odds a coach will feel it's advantageous to put up three points rather than attempt a fourth-and-long will get this home.
[h=3]Longest TD UNDER 48.5 yards (-110)[/h]Kezirian: The Patriots will do everything they can to avoid the wrath of Donald and Suh, which means short drops and underneath throws for Brady. New England's defense tends to have a bend-but-don't-break mentality as well. It's a recipe for all touchdowns originating in positive territory.
[h=3]Shortest made FG UNDER 27.5 yards (-110)[/h]Kezirian: While I think each coach has the capability to be aggressive inside the 10-yard line, there is no bigger stage than the Super Bowl. The pressure will force each coach into conservative playcalling near the end zone, especially with Rams quarterback Goff so shaky. Plus, we already saw McVay opt for a short FG in the NFC Championship Game.
[h=3]Will the game be tied after 0-0? Yes (-110)[/h]Kezirian: Simply, I expect a close game. When that situation presents itself, teams find ways to tie the game because the team with the lead sometimes plays conservatively and kicks field goals. Plus, coaches have figured out how to utilize two-point conversions to position themselves properly for the next score.
[h=3]James Develin OVER 2.5 rushing and receiving yards (-110)[/h]Kezirian: Belichick has built a career on unconventional approaches. Plus, the play-action will keep the stout Rams defensive front off balance. I expect Belichick to keep the Rams honest by incorporating Develin at some point.
[h=3]C.J. Anderson OVER 43.5 rushing yards (-110)[/h]
Kezirian: Anderson has developed a nice rhythm with the offensive line, and I expect McVay to lean on that rushing attack to take the pressure off his young quarterback. Plus, Anderson's emergence has allowed McVay to use Gurley more as a receiver.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Super Bowl LIII on Sunday will feature the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams squaring off at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
Our experts (Doug Kezirian, Preston Johnson, Mike Clay and Warren Sharp) provide their analysis on picking the game against the spread, the over/under and various prop bets they like.
Last year, Nevada sportsbooks took in a record $158.5 million in handle on the Super Bowl -- a number that's expected to be shattered this year. Our comprehensive Super Bowl LIII betting guide is below to help you with all of your wagering needs.
PickCenter: 78 percent picked New England
Johnson: This will be the last NFL game we can bet until the preseason games kick off in August, and there are a multitude of betting opportunities this Sunday. However, the best advice I can give to recreational bettors is not to go too wild betting the Super Bowl. While it is one of the biggest sporting events of the year, betting 10 to 20 times the amount of money you typically would for another game won't generally end well. Believe me when I say I've been there. What I will discuss are the edges that I do believe are worth betting this Sunday. From the side and total to a deep dive into the props, let's dig in.
My projections for this matchup are Rams -1.7 with a total of 58 points. That's right -- the wrong team is favored here. The numbers this season point to the Rams being the better team. I understand that giving Bill Belichick two weeks to prepare for the Los Angeles offense sounds threatening, but I will tell you this: Belichick was outcoached in each of the last two Super Bowls by new-school guys on the opposite sideline. Sean McVay won't be intimidated.
Todd Gurley's lack of effectiveness in the NFC Championship Game is certainly concerning (even with C.J. Anderson stepping up in his place), but McVay told the media on Tuesday that Gurley will be a big part of this game, so there isn't any reason to expect anything less.
I have been waiting <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">patiently and picking off Rams +3 numbers when they have become available in Las Vegas. I anticipate that more widely available +3s will appear outside of Las Vegas before this number starts to move down to +2 in the marketplace, so I would recommend waiting before locking in the Rams at +2.5 (still a significant edge worth betting if you are unable to grab a +3).
</offer>
While I show a small discrepancy in the total at 56.5 and my projection, I would likely need a 54 before I jumped in to bet the over (and even at 54, the way Super Bowls have been starting slowly entices me to wait and more than likely get a better number at some point in-game).
There aren't going to be too many plays for a loss in this matchup, which naturally bodes well for both offenses. It might take some time for the offenses to really open up, but when they do, I expect there to be touchdowns scored. Both New England and Los Angeles ranked outside the top 15 in the league in defensive efficiency this season, and I don't see any reason for that to suddenly change.
Pick: Rams +2.5 (worth waiting for potential +3s)
Lean: Over 56.5, ultimately looking to bet it in-game at a lower number
Sharp: I can't wait for this game to kick off. Matchups between two great teams extremely close in terms of total strength come down to two things: coaching strategy and execution.
From a strategy perspective, the Rams should use short targets to WRs on early downs. While they lowered the rate of play-action over the back half of the season, they need to use it often to slow New England's pass rush. They must pass the ball more from 12 personnel than their season average and must find a way to get productivity from their running backs in the passing game -- if it's not with Gurley, they should incorporate John Kelly in a minor role. I believe Los Angeles should the ball more from 11 personnel, and focus on run types that mirror the Patriots' weaknesses, which include outside zone (specifically from 11 personnel) and inside zone.
For the Patriots, they must stay aggressive on first-down passes and attack the Rams secondary beyond 15 yards. They should pass more from 21 personnel, as the Los Angeles defense against 11 personnel has improved in recent weeks. They should look to target RBs out of the backfield from 12 or 21 personnel, and do so primarily on first down, as Los Angeles is tremendous defending RB passes on second and third down. They should also be aware the Rams are very strong defending the slot and be prepared to move Julian Edelman around often to dictate matchups.
Both teams are extremely close in my custom early-down success-rate metric this season, both offensively and defensively. When they won the EDSR battle, the Patriots went 9-0 (just 2-5 when losing it). But the Rams went 6-0 when losing the EDSR battle, indicating their ability to overcome efficiency struggles, which the Patriots struggled to replicate.
Backing the publicly favored Patriots is not something I have interest in doing, but I do think that both offenses could go through a feeling out process, and for that reason, I think this game starts out slowly. While you can't get 28 in the first half any longer, because I see at least one FG in the first half, I think 27.5 still offers value and would look in that direction.
Pick: first half under 27.5
Lean: Rams +3 (wait for 3)
Kezirian: The oddsmakers opened L.A. as a favorite for a reason. I realize Belichick and Tom Brady have a giant edge in experience, but this Rams team started the season 8-0. That seems like a lifetime ago, especially for Jared Goff, but I feel the potent defensive front will do enough to limit Brady. Everyone is enamored with the Pats, but they were a Dee Ford offside away from being eliminated, and the Chiefs fired their defensive coordinator soon after the game. Wade Phillips has been in big games and presents a much stiffer challenge. I lean to the Rams and the under.
Lean: Rams +2.5, under 56.5
[h=2]Prop bets[/h][h=3]First penalty: Patriots (+130)[/h]Johnson: I'm sure the perception of a Belichick-coached team in the Super Bowl is that of near-perfection, or that the "big game" experience of the Patriots compared to the inexperience of the Rams may cause for jitters on the Los Angeles side of the football. Maybe everyone remembers New England only being penalized once last year against the Eagles in Super Bowl LII.
However, the Rams were actually penalized fewer times than New England this season (107 to 108). There isn't any significant reason that either the Patriots or the Rams should be priced at +130 to be called for the first penalty. This is similar to getting a price of +130 betting on heads in a coin toss. We would all bet heads. Digging into the details somewhat, I did find that the Patriots were the most penalized team in the NFL on special teams. Whether it be on the opening kickoff or after a clean opening drive resulting in a punt or field goal attempt, it certainly doesn't hurt our case.
[h=3]Total QB sacks: Under 3.5 (+110)[/h]
Johnson: I broke down the sack rate numbers in this matchup earlier and project just 2.92 sacks in this game. Getting a line of 3.5, let alone at plus money, offers quite a bit of value. I'm happy to bet against the unstoppable Ndamukong Suh and Aaron Donald pass-rush narrative and take the under here.
[h=3]Will Todd Gurley score a touchdown? (Yes -140, No +120)[/h]Johnson: I will be looking to take advantage of the public's perception of Gurley after his performance in the NFC Championship Game in New Orleans. At the price of -140, the implied probability of Gurley scoring a touchdown is 58.33 percent. This season Gurley scored in 14 of his 16 games (87.5 percent). Even in limited action against the Saints, Gurley managed to find the end zone. I'm taking the reduced price here all day.
Pick: Yes -140
Clay: In seven games since their Week 12 bye, the Rams have scored 19 offensive touchdowns (2.7 per game). Of those 19, only seven were passes (four of which came in one game). That run-first mentality near the goal line means there's a good chance the Rams find the end zone on the ground Sunday.
Of course, that doesn't mean Gurley will be the man to get the job done. In two playoff games, Anderson paces the team with four carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line (he scored on two). Goff has two carries inside the 5, and Gurley -- believe it or not -- has zero (his two scores were from 6 and 35 yards out).
Since joining the Rams, Anderson (5.7 YPC, 2.66 YAC, 6.9 box defenders per rush) has outperformed Gurley (5.0 YPC, 2.06 YAC, 6.4 box defenders per rush), and so it should come as no surprise if he paces the team in carries for the fifth straight game on Sunday.
Gurley has 23 touchdowns in 16 games this season, so this is a bold one, but at +140, it's worth the risk. By the way, Anderson scoring a touchdown can be had for +150, so consider going all in here.
Pick: No +120
[h=3]First TD: Todd Gurley (+700)[/h]Johnson: First-touchdown prop bets on Gurley throughout the Rams' regular-season games were typically priced +250 to +300 each week. I know it's the Patriots in this particular matchup and that they are more likely to score first than most of the Rams' opponents this season, but +700 is a severe overreaction to Gurley's poor performance two weeks ago.
[h=3]
More points scored in the 2nd half + OT (-160)[/h]Sharp: There will be plenty of points in this game, I just believe more will come in the second half thanks to strong halftime adjustments offensively.
[h=3]Sony Michel scores a TD YES (-130)[/h]Sharp: The Rams struggle tremendously to stop runs from 21 personnel. I think Michel (five TDs in postseason) will get more carries inside the 5-yard line than Rex Burkhead.
[h=3]Longest made FG OVER 46.5 (-125)[/h]Sharp: With two strong kickers, the odds a coach will feel it's advantageous to put up three points rather than attempt a fourth-and-long will get this home.
[h=3]Longest TD UNDER 48.5 yards (-110)[/h]Kezirian: The Patriots will do everything they can to avoid the wrath of Donald and Suh, which means short drops and underneath throws for Brady. New England's defense tends to have a bend-but-don't-break mentality as well. It's a recipe for all touchdowns originating in positive territory.
[h=3]Shortest made FG UNDER 27.5 yards (-110)[/h]Kezirian: While I think each coach has the capability to be aggressive inside the 10-yard line, there is no bigger stage than the Super Bowl. The pressure will force each coach into conservative playcalling near the end zone, especially with Rams quarterback Goff so shaky. Plus, we already saw McVay opt for a short FG in the NFC Championship Game.
[h=3]Will the game be tied after 0-0? Yes (-110)[/h]Kezirian: Simply, I expect a close game. When that situation presents itself, teams find ways to tie the game because the team with the lead sometimes plays conservatively and kicks field goals. Plus, coaches have figured out how to utilize two-point conversions to position themselves properly for the next score.
[h=3]James Develin OVER 2.5 rushing and receiving yards (-110)[/h]Kezirian: Belichick has built a career on unconventional approaches. Plus, the play-action will keep the stout Rams defensive front off balance. I expect Belichick to keep the Rams honest by incorporating Develin at some point.
[h=3]C.J. Anderson OVER 43.5 rushing yards (-110)[/h]
Kezirian: Anderson has developed a nice rhythm with the offensive line, and I expect McVay to lean on that rushing attack to take the pressure off his young quarterback. Plus, Anderson's emergence has allowed McVay to use Gurley more as a receiver.
