John Parry Betting Trends
Favorites: 85-80-4 (51.5%) against the spread (ATS)
Home Teams: 82-81-4 ATS (50.3%)
Overs: 92-75-2 (55.1%)
Patriots: 7-6 ATS
Rams: 7-0 ATS
In games that Parry has overseen, the over is 92-75-2 (55.1%) since 2003. The Patriots-Rams over/under is 56.5, but in high-total games (45 or more points) that Parry is wearing the striped shirt, it has still been profitable to bet the over: 44-31 (58.7%).
Why have overs been money in Parry’s games? It’s hard to say, but one explanation could be penalties. Perhaps he throws more flags, which would extend drives and lead to more scoring.
However, according to Pro Football Reference, there have been an average of 12.5 penalties in games that Parry has officiated. Over that same span, the league average per game is 12.6, so there isn’t any more laundry on the field when Parry is the official than you’d expect with the average referee.
In general, overs have been profitable in eight of the 11 seasons he has been a head referee, which might better explain the trend. Currently, 53% of tickets are on the over in the Super Bowl.
Why Patriots fans don’t want to see Parry:
Parry was the referee for Super Bowl 46 between the Patriots and New York Giants. His crew called Tom Brady for intentional grounding on the team’s first offensive play, leading to a safety. Needless to say, that was a bad omen as New England would go on to lose for a second time to Eli Manning.
Why Rams fans don’t want to see Parry:
Two weeks ago, it was Bill Vinovich who served as the head official in the NFC Championship Game, and Rams fans were not psyched to see him. In fact, they were so unhappy that they started a petition to have him removed. LA had been 0-5 both straight up (SU) and ATS with Vinovich on the field.
Lucky for them, Vinovich wasn’t removed and his crew missed an obvious pass interference call that helped propel the Rams to the Super Bowl.
This week, I doubt there will be any pleas from Rams fans to have Parry’s Super Bowl assignment stripped from him. Los Angeles is 7-0 SU and ATS when Parry is assigned to their games.
Of course, just as the trend with Vinovich reversed, Rams fans could be nervous the same will happen with Parry.