How to bet UFC 234: Whittaker vs. Gastelum ?

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How to bet UFC 234: Whittaker vs. Gastelum


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The UFC heads to Australia on Saturday for a pay-per-view card that should add clarity to the future of the middleweight division. The main event features the now undisputed champion, Robert Whittaker, against new challenger Kelvin Gastelum in a bout which looks fascinating on paper.


The co-main event brings back long-time GOAT candidate Anderson Silva in a strange new role as middleweight gatekeeper against rising phenom Israel Adesanya. While Silva is the biggest underdog on the card (a first for the former champion), the statistical matchup suggests two of the sharpest strikers in the division's history fueling what could be a fan-friendly, nearly super-hero like duel of fisticuffs and matrix-like dodges.


Currently Whittaker and Adesanya are the clear betting favorites. Is there upset potential in either matchup? Could Gastelum shake up the division, or could Silva add a miracle ending to his storied career? Otherwise, Whittaker could solidify his reign and open up the challenger queue, while Adesanya could win his way to the top of that contender list.
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UFC middleweight title matchup: champion Robert Whittaker (-250) vs. No. 4 Kelvin Gastelum (+210)

<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, Arial, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, sans-serif; height: 823px; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">Tale Of The Tape

KELVIN GASTELUMROBERT WHITTAKER
Last fight weight classMiddleweightMiddleweight
Current age2728
Height (in)6972
Reach (in)71.573
StanceSouthpawOrthodox
Analyzed minutes165160
Standup striking offense
Career knockdown ratio
(Scored : Received)
9:18:4
Distance knockdown rate4.3%2.1%
Head jab accuracy34%30%
Head power accuracy33%32%
Total standup strike ratio1.21.2
Striking defense
Total head strike defense72%75%
Distance knockdown
defense ("Chin")
100%98%
Wrestling and grappling
TD attempts/minute
(Standing/clinch)
0.140.05
Takedown accuracy50%57%
Advances per
takedown/top control
1.12.5
Opponent takedown attempts6263
Takedown defense63%84%
Share of total ground
time in control
47%63%
Submission attempts
per trip to ground
0.060.00

<tbody>
</tbody>
</aside>















Gastelum is no stranger to a size disparity, yet having settled into his role at middleweight, some physical matchups will be more challenging than this one. Whittaker is not a big middleweight, making the uphill battle to which Gastelum is accustomed more fair here. Factor in Gastelum's unorthodox stance, and the slight reach differential becomes a wash on paper. We're left with two fighters in peak form of their late 20's, meaning they should be able to engage in a high-paced firefight longer than other fighters.


And it could be just that. Whittaker hardly attempts any takedowns at all, while Gastelum attempts less than half the UFC average, despite having capably utilized his wrestling base in earlier fights. If the two stand and trade, you'll see two very accurate strikers who prefer to press the pace and outwork opponents. So the question will be who wins the "arms" race early on. While Whittaker has slightly better strike avoidance and uses a higher pace of strikes, Gastelum has twice the knockdown rate when connecting. The standup duel will be an interesting one, and might boil down to which fighter has better film preparation and is quicker to time his opponent.


Should Gastelum decide to change levels and attempt to stifle Whittaker's standup game, Gastelum will need to set it up with his hands, as Whittaker's takedown defense is very high at 84 percent. That's a wild card, but if Gastelum is smart, he takes his time luring Whittaker into slinging leather before setting it up.


E+ recommends: It's a rare and dangerous away-game champion upset pick. We'll suggest keeping the unit size small, but at a payout of more than 2-to-1 odds for Gastelum, he's worth it given the coin-flip matchup stats. Gastelum's speedy hands could offer the more violent individual strikes, and he has the superior grappling game as a backup plan. If his odds rise further, also consider a Gastelum inside the distance prop if it gets anywhere near +300.


Given the youth and resiliency of both men, the fight could take some time to develop, so we don't expect an early finish despite this being a five-round middleweight bout. Round totals haven't been released yet, but we'd agree with 4.5 rounds as the appropriate limit and don't expect much value on the table there. Both have knockout potential, Gastelum a bit more, but it could come late after damage has accumulated.

Odds and ends

In the co-main event, Anderson Silva is currently a huge underdog to up-and-coming star Israel Adesanya, who was rapidly rebooked after knocking out top-10 ranked opponent Derek Brunson in November. Silva, known for his elusiveness and dangerously accurate power striking, might be handing down his mantle to Adesanya, who has already become the most accurate power striker in the division to date. While Adesanya might regress toward the mean in that metric, the combination of his speed, accuracy and power against Silva's 43-year-old brain is not a combination that will work out for the older legend. The odds are so steep as to diminish the value of betting Adesanya straight up, but his T/KO or 'Inside the Distance' prop bets are much more affordable at below -200 odds.

 

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Absolute garbage card for a major PPV

Fight Pass quality at best.
 

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No opinion on this material fellas, just posting for others to read per request...

Yeah that write up is very one sided. It kinda tells you who ever the guy who wrote it likes in the fight. How dare that fool write that garbage about prob one of the best that has ever did it in Silva. Asssanya? Come on who has he beaten? Dereck Brunsun? lmao What a freakin joke. You put a war proven soldier in there with some young guy who has no idea what a true war is really like and you will see what happens. Silva turns back the hands of time. Why? Because its his last chance. Never ever count a wounded dog out of it when its all on the line. At the press conference Ass-Sonya after the face off stormed off the cage like he was about to cry. This fool is so insecure it made me uncomfortable watching him act like he is all that. true killers dont puff up there chest and act like that. They are calm, cool and collective because they believe in themselves. The End...
 

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This fool is so insecure it made me uncomfortable watching him act like he is all that. true killers dont puff up there chest and act like that. They are calm, cool and collective because they believe in themselves. The End...

The same thing you're saying about Adesanya is the same thing Silva has been doing in his later years, puffing his chest up and running around acting like a clown taunting his opponents in the Octagon, only to get destroyed by Weidman 2x, and beaten up by Bisping. It makes you wonder where Adesanya may have learned it from...

I'm not a fan of Adesanya either, but he's acting no different than the Silva of late, well except he hasn't been busted for PEDs yet...
 

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Anybody else concerned about that ring worm looking thing on Kelvin's chin area and that staph looking bubble on the back of his neck?
 

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Bobby Knuckles ...


Last two fights: Decision, decision

Two before that: Knockout, knockout

Two before that: Decision, decision

Two before that: Knockout, knockout
 

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Anybody else concerned about that ring worm looking thing on Kelvin's chin area and that staph looking bubble on the back of his neck?

It is rather weird, and staph runs rampant too. It’s definitely one of the things I think about while training at a gym. Cleanliness is key. That boil looking thing on his neck looks like it’s about to burst and KO someone. Secret weapon? Lmao! It’ll Probably get played off as a spider bite...lol
 

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Since returning to Middleweight at UFC 206, Kelvin Gastelum has knocked down each of his opponents.He's averaging 1 knockdown for every 32.7 significant strikes he lands on the feet at Middleweight






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Here's how Adesanya's numbers through his first 4 UFC fights stack up compared to Silva's numbers through his first 4 UFC fights



Dy5sUrYWkAIcVSs.jpg
 

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[h=1]BIG MARLEY’S UFC 234 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN[/h]Cash Game play of the week – Shane Young ($9,100)
I am really not loving this slate for cash games, and I was just going to pick the main event stack for my cash game play of the week. However, I can see the main event only scoring ~100 total points and when I am stacking I want a floor of 100 with upside of 160 or so. I have changed my stance on the stack and I think Shane Young makes a great cash game play. I don’t know how high of a ceiling he has because I do think this fight goes all 3 rounds, but I do feel confident in him winning and even more confident in him not getting finished. I think he has a high floor because this fight should go all 3 rounds, but I think he is the better fighter everywhere and I see him winning this fight with a mixture of striking and wrestling. I do think he has 100-point upside in a decision, and I also think he could finish this fight. But I feel like he is a safe play for 80+ and that is why he is my cash game play of the week instead of my GPP play.


GPP play of the week – Kyung Ho Kang ($9,400)

I think the only way Kang loses this fight is by getting KO’d. He should be the far superior fighter on the mat, and I think he can hang on the feet as well. I expect him to look for takedowns early and often, and Ishihara has no ground game to compete with him off his back. Since Ishihara does have heavy power in his hands I think Kang has a floor of 0 points, but that is why he is my GPP play of the week and not my cash game play of the week. In cash, I want to lock in higher floors and that is not what we have here. I like this more for GPPs because if he loses at $9.4k it won’t matter how many points he has, we wouldn’t be cashing. In cash games, we could still come away with a profit if he lost a decision at that price and still scored 30-40 points, we would just need to hit on our other spots. We don’t need 6 wins in cash, but we do for GPP. So, we can take the chance on a 0 there because he has 100+ upside since he will be the fighter wanting to grapple and I could see him getting multiple takedowns as well as a submission. I think he gets a 1st or 2nd round submission and I don’t expect for him to stand too long with Ishihara. I think Kang can outscore Adesanya in this spot and I like him as a pivot away from a big name who could be more popular.


Underdog play of the week – Kelvin Gastelum ($7,300)

I am actually picking Whittaker to win this fight, but I also don’t really like many/any underdogs on this card. I expect this fight to stay standing for as long as it lasts. I personally see this going the distance and Whittaker winning a unanimous decision. If that is the case, then I think Gastelum has the highest floor of the underdogs because he will have 5 rounds to work with and he will land a fair amount of shots. I also think if Whittaker wins a 25-minute decision that he probably only scores 85-95 DK points. At his $8.9k salary, that might not put him on the $30k lineup. If Kelvin wins, whether it be by KO or decision, he will almost surely be on that $30k lineup at his $7.3k salary. That is why he is my underdog play of the week.


Fade of the week – Sam Alvey ($7,900)
I have to stay on brand with this one and pick Sam Alvey as my fade of the week. I have picked him as my fade every time he has fought so I am going to roll with it again. The style Alvey brings to the table is just not beneficial for DraftKings. The only way Alvey can possibly score highly is by getting a knockout win. He does not strike at a high enough pace to score highly in a decision and he won’t be going for any takedowns. Even if he gets a decision win here he could score 50-60 DK points and that might not be enough to win a GPP, even with him being the underdog. I want at least 10x from a fighter when I roster them and with his $7.9k price tag, that means I need at least 79 DK points. I don’t see that happening and that is why he is my fade of the week.
 

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Combat Press



Fight Picks
FightPetela’s PickAittama’s Pick
Main Card (Pay-per-view, 10 p.m. ET)
MW Championship: Robert Whittaker vs. Kelvin GastelumWhittakerWhittaker
MW: Anderson Silva vs. Israel AdesanyaAdesanyaAdesanya
BW: Rani Yahya vs. Ricky SimónYahyaYahya
Women’s FlyW: Nadia Kassem vs. Montana De La RosaDe La RosaDe La Rosa
LHW: Jim Crute vs. Sam AlveyAlveyCrute
Preliminary Card (ESPN, 8 p.m. ET)
LW: Dong Hyun Ma vs. Devonte SmithSmithSmith
FW: Austin Arnett vs. Shane YoungArnettYoung
FlyW: Kai Kara-France vs. Raulian PaivaKara-FranceKara-France
BW: Teruto Ishihara vs. Kyung Ho KangIshiharaKang
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass, 6:30 p.m. ET)
LW: Lando Vannata vs. Marcos MarianoVannataVannata
WW: Jalin Turner vs. Callan PotterPotterPotter
BW: Wuliji Buren vs. Jonathan MartinezMartinezBuren
 

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