2019 MLS & Concacaf CL Picks

SunDodger · Feb 19, 2019

I am going to try a new strategy this year, less plays each week and overall this season. Hopefully, this leads to a higher win percentage and units won. Too often, I bet on marginal games and it kills my bottom line.

MLS season starts in less than two weeks. Concacaf CL round of 16 is first up. Here's hoping for a good season. :toast:

I am going to fade a few MLS teams in their 1st leg away matches.

CCL - R16 1st leg

Tue 02/19/19 Independiente +0.25 -128 vs Toronto
Tue 02/19/19 Guastatoya +0.5 -122 vs Houston

SunDodger · Feb 21, 2019

Waiting on line movement for the other game.

Thu 02/21/19 Sporting KC -0.25 -108 vs Toluca

SunDodger · Feb 21, 2019

Thu 02/21/19 Herediano +0.25 -116 vs Atlanta Utd - In CCL, Herediano are 11W-5L-3D at home. They are 9W-1L-1D at home, when not facing a Mexican side. Taking a shot on the home dog against the MLS Cup Champs.

SunDodger · Feb 25, 2019

Independiente 4-0 Win
Guastatoya 0-1 Loss
Sporting KC 3-0 Win
Herediano 3-1 Win

LW: 3W-1L-0P..........+1.78 Units

CCL - R16 2nd leg

Tue 02/26/19 Tigres UANL -1.75 -124 vs Dep Saprissa - Over 3.0 -113 - In CCL, Tigres are 11W-1L-3D at Home since 2012. Including 10W-0L-1D, when not facing a team from Mexico. And, 5W-0L-0D in the knockout phase. (Group phase was eliminated 2 years ago.) Saprissa are 0W-12L-2D Away versus Mexican sides, since 2002.

ShortBusDriver7 · Feb 27, 2019

nice cash

varkeyboy · Feb 27, 2019

Amazing job!

SunDodger · Feb 27, 2019

Thanks guys. Lines for today are not out yet at 5D.

At work right now. Will post about 3:30pm.

SunDodger · Feb 27, 2019

Line just went up.

Santos Laguna -2.5 -116 and Over 3.25 -118

SunDodger · Feb 27, 2019

Monterrey -2.0 -119 and Over 2.75 -126

SunDodger · Feb 27, 2019

Adding two more.

Wed 02/27/19 Santos Laguna -2.5 -116 vs Marathón - Over 3.25 -118 - In CCL, Santos Laguna are 24W-1L-3D at home since 2002. Including 22W-0L-1D vs. non-Mexican teams. Marathón are 0W-3L-1D, GF/GA 2/16 vs. Mexican teams, and lost the 1st leg at home 2-6.

Wed 02/27/19 New York RB -3.25 -116 vs Atlético Pantoja - Over 4.25 -112 - In CCL, the Red Bulls are 4W-0L-3D at home, since 2014. They swept Tijuana in the QF's and lost to Chivas in the semis last year. Pantoja are by far the worst team in this tournament.

Wed 02/27/19 Monterrey -2.0 -119 vs Alianza - Over 2.75 -126 - In CCL, Monterrey are 15W-2L-2D at home since 2010. Also my strongest trend goes in this game. It is 13W-2L-1P ATS on the home side and the Over is 14W-2L-0P, since 2012.

SunDodger · Feb 28, 2019

Rough night. Sticking to my guns for tomorrow.

Thu 02/28/19 Atlanta Utd -1.25 -134 vs Herediano - Over 3.0 -107
Thu 02/28/19 Toluca -0.75 -130 vs Sporting KC - Over 2.75 -104

SunDodger · Mar 1, 2019

Tigres UANL 5-1 Win, Over Win
Santos Laguna 5-0 Win, Over Win
New York RB 3-0 Push Loss, Over Loss
Monterrey 1-0 Loss, Over Loss
Atlanta Utd 4-0 Win, Over Win
Toluca 0-2 Loss, Over Loss

LW: 6.0W-5.5L-0.5P..........-0.49 Units

CCL:
Record: 9.0W-6.5L-0.5P
Risked: -18.93 units
Net: +1.29 units

My most profitable CCL trends over the last 8 years have clearly regressed to the mean in the last two. The MLS teams have definitely closed the gap on Liga MX teams.

MLS -- Week # 1

Sat 03/02/19 Philadelphia -0.5 -122 vs Toronto - More of a play against Toronto. No more Giovinco, and Altidore is still recovering from ankle surgery. Not sure where the goals will come from. Philly adding Marco Fabian should help their offense.

Sat 03/02/19 Colorado vs Portland +0.25 -126 - Portland had a great preseason, and start with their first 12 games on the road. I like their chances here.

Sat 03/02/19 LA Galaxy -0.5 -120 vs Chicago - Over 2.75 -130 - The Galaxy were an Over machine to end last year, with 18 of 20 seeing 3+ goals. Chicago lost 8 of last 9 Away, and 8 of 9 saw 3+ goals.

SunDodger · Mar 5, 2019

Philadelphia 1-3 Loss
Portland 3-3 Win Push
LA Galaxy 2-1 Win, Over Win Push

MLS Last Week: 2.0W-1.0L-1.0P......+0.78 Units

CCL - QF 1st leg

Tue 03/05/19 New York RB -0.5 -126 vs Santos Laguna

SunDodger · Mar 9, 2019

New York RB 0-2 Loss

MLS -- Week # 2

Sat 03/09/19 San Jose vs Minnesota Utd - Over 2.75 -126
Sat 03/09/19 Seattle -1.0 -118 vs Colorado

SunDodger · Mar 10, 2019

San Jose 0-3, Over Win Push
Seattle 2-0 Win

Sun 03/10/19 Sporting KC -0.5 -124 vs Philadelphia
Sun 03/10/19 Atlanta Utd -1.25 -108 vs Cincinnati

SunDodger · Mar 15, 2019

Done with CCL for the year.

Final CCL:
Record: 9.0W-7.5L-0.5P
Risked: -20.19 units
Net: +0.03 units

Sporting KC 2-0 Win
Atlanta Utd 1-1 Loss

MLS Last Week: 2.5W-1.0L-0.5P.....+1.42 units

MLS:
Record: 4.5W-2.0L-1.5P
Risked: -9.74 units
Net: +2.20 units

Sat 03/09/19 Chicago vs Seattle +0.25 -126
Sat 03/09/19 DC United -0.75 -122 vs Real Salt Lake
Sat 03/09/19 LA Galaxy vs Minnesota Utd +0.5 -124
Sun 03/10/19 Cincinnati vs Portland - Over 2.75 -110

SunDodger · Mar 23, 2019

Seattle 4-2 Win
DC United 5-0 Win
Minnesota Utd 2-3 Loss
Cincinnati 3-0, Over Win Push

MLS Last Week: 2.5W-1.0L-0.5P.....+1.26 units

MLS:
Record: 7.0W-3.0L-2.0P
Risked: -14.56 units
Net: +3.46 units

MLS -- Week # 4

Sat 03/23/19 Los Angeles FC -1.25 -124 vs Real Salt Lake - Over 3.25 -104

SunDodger · Mar 29, 2019

MLS -- Week # 5

Fri 03/29/19 Toronto vs New York City - Over 3.0 -110
Sat 03/30/19 New England vs Minnesota Utd - Over 3.0 -105

SunDodger · Mar 31, 2019

Sun 03/31/19 LA Galaxy vs Portland - Over 3.0 -120

SunDodger · Apr 6, 2019

Los Angeles FC 2-1 Push Loss, Over Push Loss
Toronto 4-0, Over Win
New England 2-1, Over Push
LA Galaxy 2-1, Over Push

MLS Last Week: 1.0W-1.0L-3.0P.....-0.14 units

MLS:
Record: 8.0W-4.0L-5.0P
Risked: -20.19 units
Net: +3.32 units

MLS -- Week # 6

Sat 04/04/19 Toronto -1.0 -106 vs Chicago - Over 3.0 -115
Sat 04/04/19 San Jose vs Portland - Over 3.0 -105
Sat 04/04/19 Seattle -1.25 -114 vs Real Salt Lake