Winning at sports betting used to be so easy !

Doug · Feb 23, 2019

I completely get the most basic concept behind it from the bookies POV.
/
It can be simply be stated as 11 is bigger than 10, and the punter needs to hit that 52.38 point just to break even and hitting 60 percent long term is impossible, Fezzick wrote an excellent article about that, it can be found easily enough by googling something like 60 percent winners
It's excellent the man is an A-1 mathematcion, actuary sort of guy and not very good as a tout, cheats the record just as all of them do, enough for one post, will continue

skoda · Feb 23, 2019

Sports team B or A, easy pea-z! Try Horse Chasing! 40 years and 4000 or 40,000 beers later still breathing. I've decided Spot Plays on the Road to Derby and wait on Aps setup to bet Sports here in Pennsylvania.... Is that you throwing shoe at GB?

Doug · Feb 23, 2019

I was profitable for many years, not by beating the odds and picking at an elite percentage, back on the day offshore books offered insane sign up bonuses, and you had Matchbook ( the best book ever ) where you offered and accepted bets with very low commission, plus Pinnacle with low big and high limits, and the most important thing of all

NETTELLER, once that became unavailable, I knew the end was immenant

skoda · Feb 23, 2019

Absolutely was a user friendly time see a $500 match at sportsbook Bet America if your in Jersey where payouts are as easy as deposits. Might see a few offers like your saying as States breakground..... :aktion033

Doug · Feb 23, 2019

skoda said:
Sports team B or A, easy pea-z! Try Horse Chasing! 40 years and 4000 or 40,000 beers later still breathing. I've decided Spot Plays on the Road to Derby and wait on Aps setup to bet Sports here in Pennsylvania.... Is that you throwing shoe at GB?

No I didn't toss the shoe, all I'll say about horse racing is you're bucking the track cut of like 20 percent and every horse player I've ever known is a degenerate losing compulsive gambler that spends way too much of their lifetime lurky around dingy patheticly sad OTB shithole places.
Just my take on it, same for other parimutuels, like dog racing and Jai alai.

Nothing wrong with any of those things, as long as you don't let it consume you, casinos are even a better example, video poker junkies in particular.

Doug · Feb 24, 2019

My best cash cow was betting correlated parlays, NHL in particular. I had this small book that would accept any bet, more importantly allow parlays on stuff that was blatently correlated. I beat the crap out of them for like 6 months straight. I'd literally bet like 200-300 parlays a day with them, just 5-10 risked

I rarely had a losing day, never a losing week, it was like fishing in a barrel, took me about 4-6 hours every morning to figure out how I wanted to play it and to actually submit all these bets.

I'd average about 3k a week profit on it . Book never did think to examine my account and just figure out it might be time to stop this guy, it's not just luck
They paid me every cent, I withdrew about weekly
At the end they did occasionally ask me for a few more days to pay
I pretty much single handedly bankrupted the place, I don't even recall the name of the joint now
It was nothing short of theft on my part

99steak · Feb 24, 2019

With the advancement of technology information flows fast and the book's platforms work lightning speed. Lines are very sharp and the number of games where you can find edge is very limited compare to 5 years ago. Best days to profit in online betting was during the early internet days late 90's and early 2000. 2005 to 2007 was still great but not as good as the previous era. After 2013 or so things got tighter and tighter and now its a real grind. You have to be more patience than ever now to find a good bet. Forcing bets just for action will eat alive faster than it used to in the past.
These are two must read articles for modern day bettors:
1. How to win at sports betting
2. Modern Money Management

99steak · Feb 24, 2019

Doug said:
My best cash cow was betting correlated parlays, NHL in particular. I had this small book that would accept any bet, more importantly allow parlays on stuff that was blatently correlated. I beat the crap out of them for like 6 months straight. I'd literally bet like 200-300 parlays a day with them, just 5-10 risked

I rarely had a losing day, never a losing week, it was like fishing in a barrel, took me about 4-6 hours every morning to figure out how I wanted to play it and to actually submit all these bets.

I'd average about 3k a week profit on it . Book never did think to examine my account and just figure out it might be time to stop this guy, it's not just luck
They paid me every cent, I withdrew about weekly
At the end they did occasionally ask me for a few more days to pay
I pretty much single handedly bankrupted the place, I don't even recall the name of the joint now
It was nothing short of theft on my part

Co-related parlays used to be killer way to make profit in the offshore books in the early days of internet. But most books caught and and started restricting them more than a decade ago.

late 90s through 2008 or so, reverse line movement on big public favorite used to be license to print money.

Doug · Feb 24, 2019

I'm far from being some genius, much closer to average IQ
O
I feel compelled to give credit for the seed of the idea to the proper man, a poster known as Sean, haven't seen him around in many years
I could go on and on about what a great guy he is, just wanted to give him credit. Correlated parlays are a thing of the past. Sean shared this valuable info with me privately and off forum many years ago.

Back in the days when hockey games could end in ties and oftentimes had a total of 5. It was a no brainier to parlay the dog +1.5 pucks to under 5, lots of favorable results possible getting or tying the under 5 leg, dog could lose 1-0, 2-1, tie at 0-0, 1-1,2-2, etc
Lots of good things possible even given the high negative juice on the +1
5, leg, but powerful parlayed with the under
Fav -1.5 to over is good to, if they cover the 1
5 goals you gave away then it is likely the game also goes over .

I tweaked beyond that since I could parlay it with other stuff, assuring I can't lose for very long, it just isn't possible

Forget about trying to place these bets now, it doesn't transfer well to baseball either, totals of more like 8-9 don't work, book won't take it anyway.

halekulani · Feb 24, 2019

flat betting is pointless imo for the very reason very few if any can hit 53+% long term
have to position yourself to win big bets and minimize losses on losing streaks.

5teamparlay · Feb 24, 2019

Good post

15 years ago it was impossible to lose.

i was a bonus whore—

used over 200 books. Neteller would be instant.

Always at 10 books — If I has a losing day/ I’d reup, and get a bonus 250 or whatever and my total bankroll at the 10 books would be the same.
Betting so often and so much rollover never mattered. Was doing many contests and getting referrals and getting some mod pay. Most books to credit cards no problem and their checks would come fedex like clockwork as well. Everyone was happy, I’d even get trips to Vegas, the Bahamas and Miami for me and the wife with cash and swag when we arrived,

its all gone to shit.

Mr_Mark · Feb 24, 2019

5teamparlay said:
Good post

15 years ago it was impossible to lose.

i was a bonus whore—

used over 200 books. Neteller would be instant.

Always at 10 books — If I has a losing day/ I’d reup, and get a bonus 250 or whatever and my total bankroll at the 10 books would be the same.
Betting so often and so much rollover never mattered. Was doing many contests and getting referrals and getting some mod pay. Most books to credit cards no problem and their checks would come fedex like clockwork as well. Everyone was happy, I’d even get trips to Vegas, the Bahamas and Miami for me and the wife with cash and swag when we arrived,

its all gone to shit.

Sure miss the good ol days. I was late to the party, maybe 2 years of the good stuff. What was the lifetime of these gambling days?

5teamparlay · Feb 25, 2019

Mr_Mark said:
Sure miss the good ol days. I was late to the party, maybe 2 years of the good stuff. What was the lifetime of these gambling days?

It peaked when David Caruthers has the BetOnSports party bus rolling around the US with whores!!

brendanjack · Feb 25, 2019

I miss the Dhl envelopes couple cigars and easy peasie check clearing in a week. Better then the ice cream truck rolling up

niltes · Feb 25, 2019

there are a few different corelated parlays in baseball.
the obvious ones involve the run line. others are far
more subtle and less lucrative.

99steak · May 24, 2019

Most books don't allow co-related parlays.

LargeMarge · May 24, 2019

Correlated is one word

Doug · May 24, 2019

LargeMarge said:
Correlated is one word

Really nitpicking Margie

Correlated, co-related=the same thing

Easily understood by all, we can be a bit lax
on grammar on a forum, a to instead of too, or your instead of you're is no biggie. The one I can't tolerate is ...I could care less... it's couldn't

KeithRichard · May 24, 2019

I used to play correlated parlays at a place called Wagerstreet. I couldn't believe it took them so long to fix this. Also they often had different halftime lines quite often. I caught a few nice middles occasionally. They paid like clockwork too. God I miss the old days. &#55357;&#56869;

KeithRichard · May 24, 2019

Was trying to remember why it ended with that sportsbook. The Greek took them over and I knew the sloppy lines would go away shortly after. I even think they graded some of my losers as winners and never caught it.

Winning at sports betting used to be so easy !

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