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Thread: Guess the day the DOW hits 29,000 ???

  1. #26  
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    we have various nice candles forming (11:40am), but its very early. Most notably on USO- a bullish harami , reclaiming its 200 sma, 50 sma, AND the 8 EMA.......we shall see whats she looks like at 3:50pm.......dagone......
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  2. #27  
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    a HUGE day on the markets today as a CRITICAL level was breached, but reclaimed near the end of the day. The SPY tested and held its 200 SMA. On the weekly, ANOTHER lower low has occurred.


    SPY

    1 yr daily



    two gaps to be filled (todays and just under 285) and with an underlying that historically rises 70% of the time, VERY VERY confident these gaps fill. One with HIGH risk tolerance? today at 3:55 pm is an entry point, solid bounce off the 200 and oversold. No way at a full position as no confirmed swing low. Tomorrow ; dont form a lower low, and certainly no close below the 200 SMA; all bets off, OUT. Ideally a higher high. The uptrending diagonal has been breached on the SPY this is clear and fact.

    violent, ugly month of May for the markets....


    SPY

    2 yr weekly





    NOT GOOD......a positive thrusday and friday and this week's candle may turn into a hammer candle, which would be real good. Dont see anything to ignite a major change in investor sentiment fueling the markets to new highs; need Xi and Trump to hug.....The markets are a proxy for Trump, as i said earlier id be STUNNED if a deal does not ultimately get done. For now, the market has spoken ..LOUDLY..

    ........................


    Investing.com - U.S. stocks tumbled Wednesday as the U.S.-China trade war intensified after Beijing signaled it was ready to retaliate against Washington by halting exports of rare-earth metals.
    The S&P 500 slumped 0.69%. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.79%, and the Dowplunged 0.87%.
    China is "seriously" mulling a ban on exports of rare-earth exports to the U.S. and may also implement other countermeasures, the editor-in-chief of the Global Times, a newspaper associated with China's Communist Party, said in a tweet.
    A ban on exports of rare-earth metals, 17 vital commodities used in production across a number of U.S. sectors, including oil refining, electronics and the glass industry, will likely trigger a response from Washington and prolong the trade war between the two nations.
    Trade-sensitive stocks like Boeing (NYSE:BA), Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) and 3M (NYSE:MMM) reflected the jitters on trade, closing lower on the day. Boeing, off 1.7%, trimmed 41 points from the Dow.
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  3. #28  
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5teamparlay View Post

    okay maybe may 23 2020
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  4. #29  
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    well, historically the 3rd yr of a presidential cycle (AFTER the midterm elections) is very bullish for stocks.

    dating back to 1950
    ;

    12 months after the midterms the market has been up 100% of the time. Perfecto. AVERAGING +14.90%. 1.5 yrs later ? also up 100% of the time, AVERAGING +20.57%

    the SPY closed Nov 7 th 2018 (after the midterms) at 278.15

    it closed today at 278.27


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  5. #30  
    I like money Hamilbet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ricboff View Post
    well, historically the 3rd yr of a presidential cycle (AFTER the midterm elections) is very bullish for stocks.

    dating back to 1950
    ;

    12 months after the midterms the market has been up 100% of the time.
    Perfecto. AVERAGING +14.90%. 1.5 yrs later ? also up 100% of the time, AVERAGING +20.57%

    the SPY closed Nov 7 th 2018 (after the midterms) at 278.15

    it closed today at 278.27


    Interesting. Any additional clarification on that metric?

    Compared to what? 4 years prior, the year before, the first day of the new POTUS being sworn in, etc?

    Does that account for inflation?

    Just trying to understand.
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  6. #31  
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    suprised it finished the day in the green
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  7. #32  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hamilbet View Post
    Interesting. Any additional clarification on that metric?

    Compared to what? 4 years prior, the year before, the first day of the new POTUS being sworn in, etc?

    Does that account for inflation?

    Just trying to understand.

    from the end of the mid-term elections to 365 days later. That is, buy the SPY Nov 7, 2018. And come Nov 7, 2019, ON AVERAGE, your investment will grow 14.90%. It has never lost money since 1950 ........
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  8. #33  
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    7:30 pm yesterday two long red candles on e-mini futures, looked for the headline and boom ; tariffs on mexico , lol........ China knows damn well the sensitivity of US markets to China trade news and are methodically playing . Truly insane times we are in


    investor sentiment drives markets , with fear being MUCH MUCH more powerful than greed . geo-politically, sentiment is a MESS

    going to be a WILD DAY TODAY..... May even be a shakeout....


    .............

    the US does have the Infrastructure Spending Spree Bill as an ace , no?


    IT'S ONLY MAY, AND THE FEDERAL DEFICIT IS ALREADY HIGHER THAN IN ALL BUT FIVE FULL-YEAR DEFICITS IN U.S. HISTORY



    If President Donald Trump’s spending and tax policies continue apace, a report by the Congressional Budget Office out Thursday found, the U.S. national debt will rise from 78 percent of the economy to 105 percent of the economy over the next decade.
    “Beyond 2029, if current laws remained in place, deficits would grow, driving debt to its highest levels in the nation’s history,” according the report.
    The news comes as the country approaches the halfway mark in the current fiscal year. Recent data from the Treasury Department shows the U.S. is already running a deficit of $691 billion. That's already higher than all but five full-year deficits in U.S. history, according to an analysis by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, a bipartisan nonprofit that focuses on the national debt.

    Since taking office in 2017, President Donald Trump has signed a $1.2 trillion tax cut into effect and proposed large spending hikes in his budget outlines. Those hikes in outlays and cuts to revenue were responsible for 60 percent of this year's budget deficit, according to analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Without this Trump administration–approved legislation, the analysis found, this year's budget deficit would have reached its lowest levels since 2007, at about $360 billion instead of nearly $1 trillion.
    Former deficit hawk Mick Mulvaney, who is doing double duty as both the president’s acting chief of staff and director of the Office of Management and Budget, admitted to The Atlantic last week that the Trump administration was “spending a bunch of money on stuff we’re not supposed to.” But, he said, “at least I’m losing at the very highest levels.”
    As debt increases, so do interest payments, which then crowd out other parts of the budget to the point where interest payments on the national debt will soon exceed our national defense budget.
    “Our growing debt burden will reduce opportunity, lower incomes, and only make it harder to fund important priorities in the future. While our economy is growing, we should be taking advantage of the opportunity to begin to manage our debt problem,” wrote Michael A. Peterson, CEO of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation.
    The U.S. is currently headed toward unchartered waters, said Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

    “How many more dire warnings will it take before our leaders address the nation’s dismal fiscal picture?" said MacGuineas in a statement. "Rather than addressing the rapid growth of health and retirement costs, the last Congress cut taxes and increased spending by a combined $2.4 trillion.


    Amid concerns about increased deficit and debt, the current administration is also looking to invest heavily in infrastructure. President Trump met with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer this week to discuss a bipartisan infrastructure bill. The group agreed to spend $2 trillion on the legislation but did not hammer out any policy specifics.
    MacGuineas expressed concerns about what such spending could mean in the long run. “Now we’re talking about $2 trillion more of spending, and as much as $2 trillion on top of that for infrastructure, with virtually no word of how we will pay for them," she said. "At some point the fiscal recklessness has to stop.”

    .............

    recklessness?....well that maybe a bit harsh..........LOL


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  9. #34  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ricboff View Post


    Former deficit hawk Mick Mulvaney, who is doing double duty as both the president’s acting chief of staff and director of the Office of Management and Budget, admitted to The Atlantic last week that the Trump administration was “spending a bunch of money on stuff we’re not supposed to.” But, he said, “at least I’m losing at the very highest levels.”



    LMFAO....cant get that shit out of my head and its 11:00 am already....
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  10. #35  
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    Last post deleted due to formatting issue
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  11. #36  
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    Rebound day?
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  12. #37  
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    current candles;

    spy- gap up, and straight buying, may reclaim the 8 ema . very bullish
    qqq- piercing candle formation, below the 8 ema but reclaiming the 200 SMA. Bullish

    keep in mind , short term stuff only. No resolution with China/USA. Tariffs now on Mexico. Both add up to slower growth. Global concerns of recession abound. Fed will be dropping rates for sure

    btw; those candles are not confirmed as the day is very young

    my 2 cents
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  13. #38  
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    to be clear; concerns are for a GLOBAL recession. Slower growth rates all around. I believe Xi and Trump meet at the G20 late this month.
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  14. #39  
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    Strong finish to the day, can it make a run
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  15. #40  
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  16. #41  
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    yupper it can, kidman. Those on some awesome candles on the major indices as well as certain sectors (all to see at 3:50pm)--, strong strong signal a likely swing low........ and one's buying in the oversold condition too boot. What's not to like? Probability is STACKED for a short term run. HOWEVER, very headline sensitive market, so a nutty headline can break what the technicals are sayin. Like the SPY moreso than the QQQ's as the former reclaimed its 8 EMA- its been below it since mid May. There's a gap to fill just under $285- that's a magnet, target. But i do like both ....and oil also signaling she's set to rebound, this is more evidence for the equity short term bulls. ... would be great if the qqq's can reclaim its 8 ema tomorrow
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  17. #42  
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    Powell to the rescue.........

    "Stocks Jump as Fed's Powell Suggests rates could come down "

    CHICAGO — The Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome H. Powell, said on Tuesday that the central bank was prepared to act to sustain the economic expansion if President Trump’s trade war weakened the economy. His remarks sent stocks soaring as investors predicted a cut in interest rates.
    “We do not know how or when these issues will be resolved,” Mr. Powell said of the United States’ trade disputes with Mexico, China and other nations. “We are closely monitoring the implications of these developments for the U.S. economic outlook and, as always, we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near our symmetric 2 percent objective.”
    Mr. Powell did not explicitly say that the Fed would cut interest rates, but his comments sent a signal that the central bank was watching Mr. Trump’s trade wars warily, ready to fend off any economic damage.

    .........

    56% chance of a rate drop by end of next month, with a 93% chance by year end



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  18. #43  
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    whoa nelly!!!!!! China last week PMI was very poor, and now the USA unleashes this;

    ADP private-sector job growth tumbles to a 9-year low in May

    The numbers: Private-sector employers hired just 27,000 people in May, payroll processor ADP said Wednesday. That badly missed the forecast of 175,000 jobs from economists surveyed by Econoday.


    What happened: Small business slashed 52,000 jobs in May, ADP said. Medium-sized firms added 11,000, and large companies added 68,000.
    Goods-producing industries shed 43,000 jobs, mostly concentrated in a 36,000 loss for construction; while the service sector added 71,000.
    “The economy’s weakening,” ADP architect Mark Zandi said on CNBC this morning. “This number overstates the case,” he added. It’s important to note Zandi used the exact same words last month in describing an upside surprise.
    “Growth is slowing, and it’s slowing very sharply," Zandi added. “Business capex is dead in the water.”
    Big picture: ADP’s report can be used as an early read on the closely-watched Labor Department jobs report that’s released two days later, but its track record is imperfect. In April, however, ADP came close: it reported that 275,000 private-sector jobs had been added, and the BLS reported a gain of 263,000. ADP revised its April read down to a gain of 271,000.

    ............

    yeah, Powell will be dropping rates
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  19. #44  
    Conservatives, Patriots & Huskies return to glory Willie99's Avatar
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    11/4/2020, the day after Trump is reelected

    MAGA II

    Living & loving life, despite the bumps. Always stay humble and kind.
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  20. #45  
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    keep an eye on Gold. GLD has been channeling for nearly 5 years. In this environment, she may have the fuel to breakout. GLD needs to break 130...boy oh boy, a break above and the gold nutters around the globe will return....with conviction

    GLD

    10 yr monthly

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  21. #46  
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    China issues US travel warning over 'shootings'


    China has warned its citizens to "fully assess the risks" of travelling to the US given recent "shootings", as tensions between the superpowers rise.
    The Ministry of Culture and Tourism warned of threats such as robbery and gun violence, state media said.
    China's foreign ministry also said US law enforcement agencies have been "harassing" its citizens with interrogation.
    It comes amid a power struggle between the China and the US over trade.
    The US reignited the trade war with tariff hikes in May, and broadened the conflict by blacklisting Chinese tech giant Huawei.

    Both sides have imposed tariffs on billions of dollars of each other's goods over the past year, disrupting trade and hurting the global economy.
    What exactly did China say?
    "Recently there have been shootings, robberies and thefts happening frequently in the US. The Ministry of Culture and Tourism reminds Chinese tourists to fully assess the risks of going to the US for travel," said an anchor on Chinese broadcaster CCTV, according to a Reuters translation.
    Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Geng Shuang told a press conference the warning was "necessary in light of current circumstances".
    "For some time, US law enforcement agencies have been harassing Chinese citizens with interrogation upon entry or exit, and on-site interviews, among other forms," he said, according to China's foreign ministry website.
    "Therefore the Ministry of Culture and Tourism issued the tourism reminder, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Chinese Embassy and consulates in the US decided to issue the safety reminder to raise safety awareness. That, I believe, is what a responsible government should do."




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  22. #47  
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    What's crazier, the market or the recent MLB scores?
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  23. #48  
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    Creeping up, can it hold through the weekend
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  24. #49  
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    Nothing a little ZIRP+QE won't fix.
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  25. #50  
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    sure can, Kidman..BUT, it'll need help . Post #41 outlined the strong probability of a swing low with the candle that was forming at 3:50 pm on tuesday. Indeed on Wed the qqq's claimed its 8 ema. SPY, DIA, QQQ all above the 8 ema. Approaching resistance tho, in addition to a gap fill and the 50 SMA; imo, it will need fuel to blow through these-- Jobs data comes out tomorrow , a BIGGIE.

    "The jobs report is Friday and economic reports don’t get much more important than this one"

    "Economists expect to see 180,000 jobs added in May, but a much larger or smaller payrolls number could help determine when the Fed will move on interest rate cuts"

    .............................


    USO

    2 yr weekly




    the anatomy of this week's candle is not done as we have tomorrow still to go. IF oil is up tomorrow, this week's candle would be bullish for a swing low. Would prefer the candle to be green, doesnt have to be tho.

    on the daily;


    USO

    6 month daily



    bullish engulfing pattern today,...two big gaps to be filled . It CANNOT close lower than wed's close, or else; OUT
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