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Thread: Guess the day the DOW hits 29,000 ???

  1. #51  
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    payrolls missed, but no where near the atrocious miss of ADP. Thsi number on payrolls pretty much LOCKS rates headed down. Obviously , red flags everywhere around the globe. Powell is in the charge of market direction at this point
    Pinarello (Paris) 2012 , dura-ace c50, shimano ultegra Di2
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  2. #52  
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    short term rubbish..............another BIGGIE tomorrow, as its clear the market is moving in anticipation of a rate cut. We are back to yesteryear: ADP atrocious, then fallowed by a miss on payrolls-- YET the markets rejoice, lol. The miss on payrolls wasnt awful tho, a good enough miss to fuel sentiment that come July 31 Powell drops rates. CPI tomorrow, it needs to be on the cooler side or else this swing may likely come to an abrupt end. Today's candles all signalling caution,...can never go broke taking a profit
    Pinarello (Paris) 2012 , dura-ace c50, shimano ultegra Di2
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  3. #53  
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    China trying to minimize trade damage with massive spending;

    Copper rallies on Chinese plans to accelerate infrastructure financing

    China said overnight it would accelerate financing of major infrastructure projects through "special-purpose bonds" issued by local governments, the country's latest effort to bolster growth amid the trade dispute with the U.S.



    .............


    Pinarello (Paris) 2012 , dura-ace c50, shimano ultegra Di2
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  4. #54  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ricboff View Post
    keep an eye on Gold. GLD has been channeling for nearly 5 years.In this environment, she may have the fuel to breakout. GLD needs to break 130...boy oh boy, a break above and the gold nutters around the globe will return....with conviction

    GLD

    10 yr monthly


    Central Bankers, rulers of the world , are about ready to add stimulus. First Draghi, then Powell.........China? more monies on infrastructure, they'd be building cities with no inhabitants ?



    https://qz.com/1647791/12-trillion-o...stress-signal/

    $12 trillion of negative-yielding bonds are sending a clear message of distress

    Pinarello (Paris) 2012 , dura-ace c50, shimano ultegra Di2
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  5. #55  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ricboff View Post
    USO

    2 yr weekly




    the anatomy of this week's candle is not done as we have tomorrow still to go. IF oil is up tomorrow, this week's candle would be bullish for a swing low. Would prefer the candle to be green, doesnt have to be tho.

    on the daily;


    USO

    6 month daily



    bullish engulfing pattern today,...two big gaps to be filled . It CANNOT close lower than wed's close, or else; OUT



    that hammer pattern that formed on the weekly had a WONDERFUL long tail. For a swing low it carries very high predictive value. Wont work all the time , of course, that's why i added where the stop loss had to be. Once it broke the high of the hammer (buy limit order), its add the next tranche.........., much much lower volume today, altho another green candle and close at the high. ...can never go broke taking a profit
    Pinarello (Paris) 2012 , dura-ace c50, shimano ultegra Di2
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  6. #56  
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    Dr Richoff, plans are tightening to put me and the long-suffering SheBar in Seattle& BC late December so thinking as long as CN allows me over the border I should still be eyeing that Jan 1 tee time in TOR
    donnie trump is another Nixon.....if Nixon had 4th grade literacy, weighed 374 lbs, snorted amphetamines like Pez candy & exhibited expanding symptoms of FTD
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  7. #57  
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    if ever in the Toronto area, send me a PM .............I'm buying
    Pinarello (Paris) 2012 , dura-ace c50, shimano ultegra Di2
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  8. #58  
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    Barman pick me up on the way. I need 3 implants Boffer!
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  9. #59  
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    ......I got the dinner tab bro.....Dr Lanquel to provide the edibles as dessert, may want to consider putting your MLB wagers in BEFORE dessert




    SPY

    2 yr weekly





    the candle print is small as the week just started. We can clearly see the market is near its top. What will fuel it, to break to new highs? ……..G20 in a couple of days. The market, imo, will do little until Trump/Xi meeting. If its positive, say , no more tariifs and we meet next month, ....and a tweet like 'Good meeting!! Xi is a good guy!! just received a nice text!!!' ……. could this be enough? Market is overbought, at resistance. If no good news , it can reverse rather aggressively later in the week, there's a gap to be filled on the DAILY chart at $290.25 ish, a likely magnet

    Gold continues to power through...


    if anyone had doubts whether the market is an important metric for keeping score.?...see below tweet

    going to fire the kitchen sink at it folks. Deal will get done...eventually


    Donald J. TrumpVerified account
    @realDonaldTrump
    11h11 hours ago


    ....Think of what it could have been if the Fed had gotten it right. Thousands of points higher on the Dow, and GDP in the 4’s or even 5’s. Now they stick, like a stubborn child, when we need rates cuts, & easing, to make up for what other countries are doing against us. Blew it!
    Pinarello (Paris) 2012 , dura-ace c50, shimano ultegra Di2
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  10. #60  
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    ugly start to the week, ugly red candle forming on the weekly. Munchin desperately made a positive statement of the trade stalement , markets gapped up but the day is rolling over,. The SPY just formed a lower low, not good.SPY, DIA, QQQ all lost their respective 8 EMA's on yesterday's violent long red candle. ....G20 now.....what shall she do...........let's see how she closes!!!!!!
    Pinarello (Paris) 2012 , dura-ace c50, shimano ultegra Di2
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  11. #61  
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    ZERO buying conviction to end the day, low volume......all eyes on G20. SPY is in danger of filling the gap on the daily.....tomorrow candle is a biggie....., i believe Trump/Xi meet Friday. USD FINALLY shows some life, likely to cool precious metals
    Pinarello (Paris) 2012 , dura-ace c50, shimano ultegra Di2
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  12. #62  
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    tiny candles following the ugly long red candle on Tuesday (tight trading range)-- ALL above the low of Tuesday, AND ALL (dia, spy, qqq) have reclaimed the 8 EMA, which is very good. Today's candle , of course, is still young as we are only 1/2 way though the trading day. Trump/Xi meet Sat, not Friday as I noted above. Anything good or bad and we gap up/down on Monday.........binary event, imo
    Pinarello (Paris) 2012 , dura-ace c50, shimano ultegra Di2
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  13. #63  
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    here's today's intraday chart

    SPY

    5 min (each candle is 5 minutes of action)



    how about the last 10 minutes of action?.......all set for Monday..........
    Pinarello (Paris) 2012 , dura-ace c50, shimano ultegra Di2
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  14. #64  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ricboff View Post
    tiny candles following the ugly long red candle on Tuesday (tight trading range)-- ALL above the low of Tuesday, AND ALL (dia, spy, qqq) have reclaimed the 8 EMA, which is very good. Today's candle , of course, is still young as we are only 1/2 way though the trading day. Trump/Xi meet Sat, not Friday as I noted above. Anything good or bad and we gap up/down on Monday.........binary event, imo


    gap up.......Au getting taking' to the woodshed, oil up 2%...


    Pinarello (Paris) 2012 , dura-ace c50, shimano ultegra Di2
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  15. #65  
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    this is awesome, and further evidence that the systems is largely littered with partisan hacks

    fresh off the presses, like fresh air.......

    https://www.cbo.gov/publication/55331

    do we all recall the days of Obama gross neglect of the national debt? ......a political talking point, ...who knew? ......


    If current laws generally remained unchanged, large budget deficits would boost federal debt to unprecedented levels over the next 30 years, CBO projects.







    and we NOW know why its important the Fed keeps rates low... .....
    Pinarello (Paris) 2012 , dura-ace c50, shimano ultegra Di2
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  16. #66  
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    DOW 27,000?

    HUGE DAY tomorrow...............Powell is up. Under TREMENDOUS political pressure, has become cartoonish actually, he has a tough call to make. Does he become less dovish given last Friday's great jobs report? Glad he has not lost his professionalism in the face of antagonistic childish Trump talk/tweets...kudos Powell


    DIA

    2 yr weekly






    6 month daily





    may see some wild moves tomorrow on indices, currencies, and certainly commodities







    '...see y'all tomorrow , got some papers to look over......have a nice evening'
    Pinarello (Paris) 2012 , dura-ace c50, shimano ultegra Di2
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  17. #67  
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    good headline, hahahahaha.........


    Fed chief faces tough task in congressional testimony: ‘Walking a tightrope over Niagara Falls’

    • Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s two days of testimony before Congress this week could lead to volatile markets, as the Fed chief is expected to lay out a case for rate cuts but not commit to when or how much they could move.
    • Powell may also sound more hawkish than expected, as he is likely to defend the Fed’s independence in response to questions about President Trump’s criticism of Fed policy.
    • Market pros expect Powell to explain that the Fed is ready to take action to sustain the recovery, in the face of economic activity that is more “downbeat” and the risks from global slowing and trade wars.
    Pinarello (Paris) 2012 , dura-ace c50, shimano ultegra Di2
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  18. #68  
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    wow, what a spike on the spy e mini's!!!!!!! USD getttign crushed, metals went from red to green.....

    obviously, Central Banks are running the show now...never a doubt
    Pinarello (Paris) 2012 , dura-ace c50, shimano ultegra Di2
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  19. #69  
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    Boom
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  20. #70  
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    Had it for about 10 min.
    GET THAT $$$
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  21. #71  
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    Well now it's like 300 over...
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  22. #72  
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    Quote Originally Posted by halekulani View Post
    Well now it's like 300 over...
    Thanks to the great Donald Trump
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  23. #73  
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    slippery slope for Powell. It does appear he will succumb to political pressure and decrease rates, adding fuel to the market. Keep in mind UE is below 4%!! Wild times


    SPY

    6 mth daily





    the market likely is pricing in a 25 basis pts drop by Powell. He has to deliver in late July, nothing juicy on the candles.


    ....................
    https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/wh...174010496.html

    I’m not much of a Fed watcher (never mind a Fed basher), but in my 35 years of covering the financial markets, I’ve never been more vexed by what our central bank is up to.
    The disconnect is this: Fed Chair Jay Powell is strongly signaling he will cut interest rates at the end of the month, and for the life of me I can’t figure out why.
    The way I’ve always understood it, the Fed is supposed to cut rates when the economy needs a boost. But how in the world do you argue that right now? Unemployment is at a record low, the stock market is at a record high (more on that in a minute), and the economy is purring right along.
    Our economic system is not in need of help.
    Here’s what Powell himself delivered in written testimony to Congress last week: “The labor market remains healthy ...the unemployment rate moved down...to 3.7 percent in June, close to its lowest level in 50 years. Gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the first quarter of 2019, similar to last year's pace.” Powell went on to call this a “strong reading.”
    Unemployment at 3.7% and GDP growth at 3.1%? I can’t remember when these two numbers were that close.
    How can Fed Chair Powell possibly reconcile these robust readings—which he himself cites—with a rate cut?
    And then there are the anecdotes.
    If you travel around the country now you see new construction, shiny late-model cars and trucks, and all kinds of help-wanted signs. You see college graduates getting jobs. You see packed highways and airports. You see housing prices, rents and commercial real estate relatively strong, not just in Manhattan and tech hubs, but across the nation. I know there are pockets of weakness out there, but ladies and gentlemen, this is not an economy in need of goosing.


    Need more convincing? Ask CEOs. Here’s Ed Bastian, CEO of Delta, talking about his business last week: “We’re growing at a multiple of GDP, particularly in the U.S.,” he said. “Top-line revenues were up 9% in the quarter. That’s a trend line we’ve been seeing in the last couple years.”
    Maybe not surprisingly, then, we now hear talk that this rate cut should be considered preemptive or “an insurance cut.” Seriously? That’s the new modus operandi of the Fed? Seems a long way from the bank’s dual mandate of maximizing employment—done—and stabilizing prices—not an issue. (See my take on the Fed’s inflation delusion.)
    “The main reason why I don’t believe it’s urgent to cut rates is because the economy is still fundamentally sound,” says Bernard Baumohl, Chief Global Economist at The Economic Outlook Group. “I don’t see what good a 25 basis point cut in rates will do at this time.”
    Amen, Bernard.
    The economic issues

    Are there worrisome economic issues out there? Of course. Always. At the top of the list are global trade frictions (or “crosscurrents,” as Chair Powell likes to call them) which in fact are having an impact on global growth. But why is that occurring? Almost entirely because President Trump is forcing the issue with China, Europe, Canada, Mexico, and now maybe India. In a sense then, the Fed chair has become (and yes, unintentionally) Trump’s enabler.
    Here’s Trump’s “house money” thought process: “The U.S. economy is in great shape. That means I can call out these other lame-o countries on trade. And if it hurts our economy, Powell will cut rates.”
    I’d make the same argument with regard to the president’s confrontational policy with Iran.
    To take this a step further, is it the case that because President Trump is so unpredictable, we, generally speaking, need lower rates during his tenure to mitigate that uncertainty?



    I’ll let you chew on that one.
    As Bank of America recently noted, “The Fed seems to be willing to dismiss the better data from the US and instead is focusing on the weaker global data. Indeed, when Powell was asked if the strong [June] jobs report changed his views on cuts, he stated ‘no’.”
    (Well then…)
    The stock market

    Now let’s return to the positively giddy stock market for a moment. Ask any investor why the market is up recently and they will reply, “Because Powell’s going to cut rates.” The market’s recent ascent is certainly not because of some expected earnings boon, the other primary determinant of equity prices. Earnings are projected to decline for the balance of the year.
    And so here you have the market relying and counting on Chair Powell’s action. But if you think about it, isn’t the shoe really on the other foot?
    Here’s the market’s “we-have-Jay-over-a-barrel” thought process: “You better cut rates in July, Jay old buddy. Stocks are way up because you promised you would. We’re counting on you. If you fail us, we’ll freak out and crash. That will make everyone mad, especially the Big Guy in the White House. Don’t blow it.”
    To recap, more and more it appears that the Fed is being held hostage by 1) President Trump and his global macroeconomic policies and 2) the stock market.
    There are obvious resulting problems with this, the biggest being when we really need a rate cut, i.e., when the economy really needs Rx-ing, there will be nothing left to cut. That could be seriously messy.
    Another problem likely occurring is that investors will increase their appetite for risk, which Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor to Allianz, recently warned of: “With easing unlikely to have much beneficial economic effects, corporate and economic fundamentals will lag further already-elevated asset prices, thereby accentuating threats of future financial instability that could cause economic harm,” he wrote.
    It looks highly likely that Jay Powell & Co. will lower rates on July 31. “At this stage it would be a PR disaster if they didn’t follow through on easing,” says Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. Of course the market shows a 100% probability of that happening.
    When Powell does, though, I’ll still have that same question.
    Why in God’s name, man? Why?
    Pinarello (Paris) 2012 , dura-ace c50, shimano ultegra Di2
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  24. #74  
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    can make the argument that Ray Dalio is an outlier, perhaps a bit of a stretch. Nonetheless, while nearly all portfolio managers lost monies for their clients in 2018, this dude made double digit returns (he does have hedge fund status, provides more options..in fairness)

    what's the dude up to?

    Ray Dalio Says It's Time to Buy Gold

    Bridgewater’s boss thinks the metal is a good way to diversify in these troubled times



    “I think investors today are mostly leveraged long, meaning they own risky assets and have substantially leveraged those assets through company buybacks, private equity, and so on. In order to diversify against this—i.e. reduce exposure to leveraged long portfolios—investors should look to other stores of wealth and areas that have intrinsic diversification.”


    “People seem to think that going to cash reduces risk. But that's only the case from a standard deviation perspective. When interest rates are negligible—below the inflation rate/nominal GDP growth—and you pay taxes on that, you're not getting any return. Cash over the long run is the worst performing asset class and therefore the riskiest asset class.”


    “I know gold sounds like a kooky investment. But gold is just an alternative currency to fiat paper currencies. If your portfolio is likely to perform poorly in the adverse environment I’ve been describing—less effective monetary policy, the need to run larger fiscal deficits and monetize them, and challenging politics—the behavior of gold as alternative cash has some diversity merit
    Pinarello (Paris) 2012 , dura-ace c50, shimano ultegra Di2
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  25. #75  
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    GLD

    3 month daily



    forming a wedge, going to break either way (Powell decision in a few weeks possibly to dictate). Metals follow tech., analysis well-- that's a massive gap to fill, to bounce if its filled


    1 decade monthly


    Pinarello (Paris) 2012 , dura-ace c50, shimano ultegra Di2
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