https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaygin...-playoffs-after-loss-at-phoenix/#112dc0b2c361
[h=1]Odds Heavily Against Los Angeles Lakers Making Playoffs After Loss at Phoenix[/h]
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Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James, right, tries to move past Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo during the first half of an NBA basketball game Friday, March 1, 2019, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)ASSOCIATED PRESS
As the calendar turns to March and the “Madness” takes center court in college basketball with the upcoming conference tournaments and NCAA Tournament, the NBA moves to the 4th quarter of its season. So much basketball betting is ahead at tournament time, and the basketball handle will set records this year in March with eight states now offering legal sports betting. The NBA will have plenty of meaningful games during March and early April, and that includes for teams like the Los Angeles Lakers that are outside the top-8 playoff positions.
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As the bookmakers update the betting lines, props and picks for NBA playoffs, finals and MVP, the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas also has an ongoing prop on the LA Lakers. Over All-Star weekend starting Feb. 15, the SuperBook posted odds on the Lakers making the playoffs:
Yes: -110
No: -110
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Within 24 hours, the line moved to Yes +105 and No -125 as bettors bet against the Lakers making the playoffs. That was quite a shift from the start of the season when the Lakers were expected to make the playoffs with LeBron James joining Los Angeles. The Lakers were -450 to make the playoffs and +350 to miss. It’s been all downhill for the Lakers since, and also for many bettors including one (foolish) bettor that wagered $50,000 on yes at -500 odds that the Lakers would make the playoffs. He stood to win $10,000. The Lakers closed at -600 to make the playoffs at the Westgate prior to the season, meaning the SuperBook is going to clean up and make a nice profit when the Lakers miss the playoffs. Injuries have impacted the Lakers more than expected including to LeBron James, and that’s one of the big risks of betting futures prior to the season.
But following the Lakers win over Houston Feb. 21, Los Angeles appeared to have hope and the odds on the Lakers making the playoffs were adjusted to:
Yes +200
No -250
The SuperBook generated more than $100,000 in Lakers playoff prop bets in less than a week. The initial limit was $1,000 but the SuperBook raised the stakes to $5,000 with the prop so popular.
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“The Lakes are so polarizing, and the action we’ve had on it (prop) has been nuts,” Westgate sportsbook manager Jeff Sherman said. “We had so many requests for larger bets, it’s five dimes now. The response has been phenomenal.”
Two losses later, the odds shifted again to +275 Yes and -350 No before some support and buyback on the Lakers later in the day on Feb. 27. At the start of the day on March 2, the Lakers odds to make the playoffs were +240 Yes and -300 No.
Three weeks ago, the Lakers had a 41% chance of making the playoffs. That dropped to 25% on Feb. 25 and 14% early on March 2 according toFiveThirtyEight’s playoff projection model. Now the Lakers have an 8% chance of making the playoffs after suffering an embarrassing 118-109 loss March 2 at league-worst Phoenix (13-51) as a 7-point favorite. The SuperBook has now made the biggest adjustment yet against the Lakers making the playoffs.
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Less than a month ago on Feb. 6, the LA Lakers were 16-1 to win the NBA title at the SuperBook – same as the current top-5 seeds Houston and Oklahoma City in the Western Conference. But the Lakers (30-33) loss at Phoenix was LA’s seventh defeat in their last 10 games since the start of February. Two of those victories were over Houston as a 3-point underdog and at Boston as a 9-point underdog. But road losses as favorite against Indiana, Atlanta, New Orleans and Memphis while allowing an average of 122 points per game to those teams leaves little hope that the Lakers can make a defensive stand down the stretch to make the playoffs.
The Lakers are allowing 114 points per game this season to rank in the lower quartile of the league, and their defensive efficiency rating is middle of the pack at No. 13. However, with guard Lonzo Ball out of the lineup since Jan. 19 with an ankle injury, the Lakers have been one of the league’s worst defensive teams and it showed during those four road losses and again at Phoenix Saturday night. Additional nagging injuries to Josh Hart and Kyle Kuzma along with extended missed time to injured PG Rajon Rondo has hurt the Lakers, who are one of the best rebounding teams this season. Rondo was just 1-for-10 shooting for 4 points against the Suns while James led the Lakers in defeat with team highs of 27 points, 16 assists and 9 rebounds. It wasn’t enough as the Lakers trailed by 17 points at the start of the fourth quarter and couldn’t recover. The Lakers frustrations were apparent even by LeBron with the bonehead inbound pass.
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The Lakers schedule remains one of the toughest in the league the remainder of the season with 12 of LA’s 19 games against teams .500 or better. It’s going to take more than a healthy LeBron James for LA to make the playoffs. At age 34, James is looking at missing the playoffs for the first time in 13 seasons. His current run of eight straight NBA Finals appearances will end. James has missed a career-high 17 games this season due to a groin injury, and since his return to the lineup Jan. 31, the Lakers are 4-8 and just 2-5 in their last seven games with James scoring at least 24 points in each contest. Prior his injury in December, James was averaging 27.3 points per game and 8.3 rebounds per game. Those averages are 28.4 PPG and 9.1 RPG over the last seven games with double-digit assists in six contests. But the Lakers have lost five of them, and the loss to league-worst Phoenix has the sun setting in Los Angeles.
You can bet on it.
It’s a game of inches — and dollars. Get the latest sports news and analysis of valuations, signings and hirings, once a week in your inbox, from the Forbes SportsMoney Playbook newsletter. Sign up here.
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[h=1]Odds Heavily Against Los Angeles Lakers Making Playoffs After Loss at Phoenix[/h]
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Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James, right, tries to move past Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo during the first half of an NBA basketball game Friday, March 1, 2019, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)ASSOCIATED PRESS
As the calendar turns to March and the “Madness” takes center court in college basketball with the upcoming conference tournaments and NCAA Tournament, the NBA moves to the 4th quarter of its season. So much basketball betting is ahead at tournament time, and the basketball handle will set records this year in March with eight states now offering legal sports betting. The NBA will have plenty of meaningful games during March and early April, and that includes for teams like the Los Angeles Lakers that are outside the top-8 playoff positions.
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As the bookmakers update the betting lines, props and picks for NBA playoffs, finals and MVP, the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas also has an ongoing prop on the LA Lakers. Over All-Star weekend starting Feb. 15, the SuperBook posted odds on the Lakers making the playoffs:
Yes: -110
No: -110
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Within 24 hours, the line moved to Yes +105 and No -125 as bettors bet against the Lakers making the playoffs. That was quite a shift from the start of the season when the Lakers were expected to make the playoffs with LeBron James joining Los Angeles. The Lakers were -450 to make the playoffs and +350 to miss. It’s been all downhill for the Lakers since, and also for many bettors including one (foolish) bettor that wagered $50,000 on yes at -500 odds that the Lakers would make the playoffs. He stood to win $10,000. The Lakers closed at -600 to make the playoffs at the Westgate prior to the season, meaning the SuperBook is going to clean up and make a nice profit when the Lakers miss the playoffs. Injuries have impacted the Lakers more than expected including to LeBron James, and that’s one of the big risks of betting futures prior to the season.
But following the Lakers win over Houston Feb. 21, Los Angeles appeared to have hope and the odds on the Lakers making the playoffs were adjusted to:
Yes +200
No -250
The SuperBook generated more than $100,000 in Lakers playoff prop bets in less than a week. The initial limit was $1,000 but the SuperBook raised the stakes to $5,000 with the prop so popular.
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“The Lakes are so polarizing, and the action we’ve had on it (prop) has been nuts,” Westgate sportsbook manager Jeff Sherman said. “We had so many requests for larger bets, it’s five dimes now. The response has been phenomenal.”
Two losses later, the odds shifted again to +275 Yes and -350 No before some support and buyback on the Lakers later in the day on Feb. 27. At the start of the day on March 2, the Lakers odds to make the playoffs were +240 Yes and -300 No.
Three weeks ago, the Lakers had a 41% chance of making the playoffs. That dropped to 25% on Feb. 25 and 14% early on March 2 according toFiveThirtyEight’s playoff projection model. Now the Lakers have an 8% chance of making the playoffs after suffering an embarrassing 118-109 loss March 2 at league-worst Phoenix (13-51) as a 7-point favorite. The SuperBook has now made the biggest adjustment yet against the Lakers making the playoffs.
NBA Proposition updated
LA Lakers make the 2018-19 Playoffs?
Yes +600
No -900
— Jeff Sherman (@golfodds) March 3, 2019
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Yes +600
No -900
— Jeff Sherman (@golfodds) March 3, 2019
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Less than a month ago on Feb. 6, the LA Lakers were 16-1 to win the NBA title at the SuperBook – same as the current top-5 seeds Houston and Oklahoma City in the Western Conference. But the Lakers (30-33) loss at Phoenix was LA’s seventh defeat in their last 10 games since the start of February. Two of those victories were over Houston as a 3-point underdog and at Boston as a 9-point underdog. But road losses as favorite against Indiana, Atlanta, New Orleans and Memphis while allowing an average of 122 points per game to those teams leaves little hope that the Lakers can make a defensive stand down the stretch to make the playoffs.
The Lakers are allowing 114 points per game this season to rank in the lower quartile of the league, and their defensive efficiency rating is middle of the pack at No. 13. However, with guard Lonzo Ball out of the lineup since Jan. 19 with an ankle injury, the Lakers have been one of the league’s worst defensive teams and it showed during those four road losses and again at Phoenix Saturday night. Additional nagging injuries to Josh Hart and Kyle Kuzma along with extended missed time to injured PG Rajon Rondo has hurt the Lakers, who are one of the best rebounding teams this season. Rondo was just 1-for-10 shooting for 4 points against the Suns while James led the Lakers in defeat with team highs of 27 points, 16 assists and 9 rebounds. It wasn’t enough as the Lakers trailed by 17 points at the start of the fourth quarter and couldn’t recover. The Lakers frustrations were apparent even by LeBron with the bonehead inbound pass.
LeBron just threw an inbounds pass off of the backboard because throwing it at Luke Walton would’ve been too obvious. pic.twitter.com/o7mW2REXGC
— Samuel H. Quinn (@SamQuinn23) March 3, 2019
Los Angeles currently sits in the 10th spot in the Western Conference with 19 games remaining. Over the next week, the Lakers play three home games against playoff teams – LA Clippers, Denver and Boston. With eight teams in each conference making the playoffs, Los Angeles is 4.5 games behind San Antonio (35-29) and the LA Clippers (35-29) for the final playoff spot in the West. Sacramento (31-31) is also in front of the Lakers in the playoff chase.— Samuel H. Quinn (@SamQuinn23) March 3, 2019
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The Lakers schedule remains one of the toughest in the league the remainder of the season with 12 of LA’s 19 games against teams .500 or better. It’s going to take more than a healthy LeBron James for LA to make the playoffs. At age 34, James is looking at missing the playoffs for the first time in 13 seasons. His current run of eight straight NBA Finals appearances will end. James has missed a career-high 17 games this season due to a groin injury, and since his return to the lineup Jan. 31, the Lakers are 4-8 and just 2-5 in their last seven games with James scoring at least 24 points in each contest. Prior his injury in December, James was averaging 27.3 points per game and 8.3 rebounds per game. Those averages are 28.4 PPG and 9.1 RPG over the last seven games with double-digit assists in six contests. But the Lakers have lost five of them, and the loss to league-worst Phoenix has the sun setting in Los Angeles.
The #Lakers are finished. There is no joy to this team. No passion. No desire to help one another. There is an emptiness to watching them play. I really don’t know who to blame either. I don’t think it’s one specific thing, but Luke Walton has lost all control and it’s not pretty
— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) March 3, 2019
From a point spread perspective, the Lakers are now 26-35 ATS with a pair of pushes depending when you bet those games. While the Milwaukee Bucks (48-15) currently have the best record in the NBA, they have also produced the most profit this season at 37-23-3 ATS. The Lakers rank No. 28 in the league ATS. The defending champion Golden State Warriors (44-19) have the best record in the Western Conference and are the current favorite to repeat as NBA champions. But the Warriors current 1-9 ATS run has dropped them to last in the league in at 25-37-1 ATS. So the Lakers are not the only over-valued team in the NBA. But LA is under-achieving and going to miss the playoffs, and neither LeBron James, coach Luke Walton or Lakers president Magic Johnson can save them. Lakers bettors have lost.— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) March 3, 2019
You can bet on it.
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